Ülo Ennuste Economics

papers and articles in wordpress

Memento “4.I 18”

Matsushima, Hitoshi (esmasavaldus võrgus 4.I 2018*) „Efficient Combinatorial Allocations: Individual Rationality versus Stability“ – DE GRUYTER The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics. 2017; 20170072 (trükis ilmub ilmselt 2018 esimeses kv):

*) https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bejte.ahead-of-print/bejte-2017-0072/bejte-2017-0072.xml

Abstract:

We investigate combinatorial allocations with opt-out types and clarify the possibility of achieving efficiency under incomplete information. We introduce two distinct collective decision procedures. The first procedure assumes that the central planner designs a mechanism and players have the option to exit. The mechanism requires interim individual rationality. The second procedure assumes that players design a mechanism by

committing themselves to participate. The mechanism requires marginal stability against blocking behavior by the largest proper coalitions. We show that the central planner can earn non-negative revenue in the first procedure, if and only if he cannot do so in the second.

Keywords: efficient combinatorial allocations, bayesian incentive compatibility, opt-out types, interim individual rationality, marginal stability

JEL classification: D44, D61, D82

DOI: 10.1515/bejte-2017-0072

P.S.: afinne rakendusnäide

Ennuste,Ü. (2014) “Towards Special Methodological Problems of Macro-Optimal Sociocybernetic International Economic Sanctioning Coordination Modelling: Introductory Remarks oPreliminary Postulates and Conjectures” – Baltic Journal of European Studies Tallinn University of Technology (ISSN 2228-0588), Vol. 4, No. 2 (17), 150-158:

http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT

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January 28, 2018 Posted by | 150-158: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Memo 20.I 18

Weiss, Martin; Claudio Cattaneo (2017) „Stock and Reviewing an Emerging Academic Paradigm“ –  Ecological Economics 137  220–230:

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.01.014

http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

Abstract

Degrowth has evolved within a decade from an activist movement into a multi-disciplinary academic paradigm. However, an overview taking stock of the peer-refereed degrowth literature is yet missing. Here, we review 91 articles that were published between 2006 and 2015. We find that the academic degrowth discourse occupies a small but expanding niche at the intersection of social and applied environmental sciences. The discourse is shaped by authors from high-income, mainly Mediterranean, countries. Until 2012, articles largely constitute conceptual essays endorsed by normative claims. More recently, degrowth has branched out into modelling, empirical assessments, and the study of concrete implementations. Authors tend to agree in that economic growth cannot be sustained

ad infinitum on a resource constraint planet and that degrowth requires far reaching societal change. Whether degrowth should be considered as a collectively consented choice or an environmentally-imposed inevitability constitutes amajor debate among degrowth thinkers.We argue that the academic discourse could benefit fromrigid hypotheses testing through input-outputmodelling, material flow analysis, life-cycle assessments, or social surveys. By analyzing the potentials for non-market value creation and identifying concrete well-being benefits, the degrowth discourse could receive wider public support and contribute to a paradigmatic change in the social sciences.

© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

January 20, 2018 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Viimatise kümnendi olulisemaid üllitisi

Ennuste, Ü. 2017 nov. Päringukiri: https://yloennuste.wordpress.com/2017/11/21/nb-rahvastikupoliitika-katastroofi-tooruhm-riigikogus/

Ennuste, Ü. 2016 nov. Do not quote: https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2016/11/

Ennuste,Ü. 2014. Towards Special Methodological Problems of Macro-Optimal Sociocybernetic International Economic Sanctioning Coordination Modelling: Introductory Remarks oPreliminary Postulates and Conjectures. – Baltic Journal of European Studies Tallinn University of Technology (ISSN 2228-0588) ETISE 1.1 kategooria ajakiri.  Vol. 4, No. 2 (17), 150-158:

http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT

Ülo Ennuste (kaastoimetaja) 2014: http://digar.nlib.ee/digar/show/?id=134869

Varju, Peep. 2013. Eesti laste küüditamine Venemaale 14. juunil 1941 kui genotsiidi- jasõjakuritegu. Ülo Ennuste kaastoimetaja. Sihtasutus Valge Raamat, Talinna Raamatutrükikoda, 116 lk, Tallinn 2013:

http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:134869

Ennuste, Ü. 2012.  “Waiting for the Commission Strengthened Governance Coordination Leviathans: Discourse Memo for the Actors in the Macro-Game “European Semester”- Baltic Journal of European Studies“ Vol 2, No 1, 2012 p 139-164:

http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No11/articles/08_Ulo_Ennuste.pdf

Ülo Ennuste (kaastoimetaja) 2012. Kannatuste aastad 1940-1991 2. vihik. Tallinn: Valge Raamat.

Ennuste (2012) Viide kui “Valgele raamatu” 2005 kaastoimetajale: http://www.communistcrimes.org/en/Database/Estonia/Estonia-Communist-Era

Ennuste, Ü. 2010. Selected Estonian key heterodox macro-economic retrospective/prospective indicators (Sept 2010) :

https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2010/09/15/selected-estonian-key-heterodox-macro-economic-retrospectiveprospective-indicators-sept-2010/

Ennuste, Ü. 2009 October. Interview to Telegraph.co.uk to A. Evans-Prichard: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6211872/Debt-deflation-laboratory-of-the-Baltics.html

Ennuste, Ü. 2009. Estonian hyper-crisis lessons confirm importance of more effective high quality coordination/regulation and harmonisation: Mechanism design theoretic approach. In: Aksel Kirch and András Inotai (Eds.) EUROPEAN UNION: CURRENT POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ISSUES. Institute for European Studies Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, 11-35: http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No6/iesp_no6.pdf

Ennuste, Ü. 2009. Towards Synthetic Design of Implementing Socio-Economic Communication Mechanisms for Building Optimal Public Socio-Economic Knowledge Spaces. – EAEPE Conference in Amasterdam (available online at the EAEPE Conference homepage).

Ennuste, Ü. 2009. Majanduspoliitika kvaliteedi kompleksprognoosi analüüsi näide: https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2009/02/05/majanduspoliitika-kvaliteedi-kompleksprognoosi-analuusi-naide-visand-4-ii-09/

Ennuste, Ü. 2009. Memo to The Prime Minister of Estonia and The Commissiomer of Economic and Monetary Affairs:

https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2009/09/23/memo-23-ix-09/

Ennuste, Ü. 2008. Synthetic Conceptions of Implementing Mechanisms Design for Public Socio-Economic Information Structure: Illustrative Estonian Examples. Kirch, Aksel; Kerikmäe, Tanel; Talts, Mait (Eds.) Socio-economic and institutional environment: harmonisation in the EU countries of Baltic Sea Rim: a collection of research articles dedicated to the 10th Anniversary of the Institute for European Studies, Tallinn: Tallinn University of Technology, 9 – 39: http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No4/Ennuste.pdf

Ennuste,Ü. 2008. TEA entsüklopeedia 1. köide, majandusteaduslike artiklite ning ca 2000 märksõna koostaja.

Ennuste, Ü. (kaastoimetaja) 2008. Kannatuste aastad 1940-1991 1. vihik. Tallinn: Valge Raamat.

Ennuste. Ü. 2007. Dual Market-Transition in Estonia 1987-2006: Institutional Mechanism Analysis Approach. In: “EUROPE AFTER HISTORICAL ENLARGEMENT”. The Proceedings of 5th Audentes Spring Conference, Apr. 28 2007, Tallinn, 60-126: http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No3/

Ennuste, Ü. 2007 September. The Speech: http://www.audentes.eu/public/Ennuste_Speech.pdf

Ennuste, Ü. 2006. Meta-synthesis Approach to Economic System Implementation Mechanisms. In: Simulation and Optimisation in Business and Industry : International Conference on Operational Research, May 17-20, 2006, Tallinn, Estonia / Eds. H. Pranevicius [et al.]. Kaunas : Technologija, 2006, 9-12. http://helios.nlib.ee/search*est/i?SEARCH=9955250615.

Ennuste, Ü. 2006. Meta-Synthesis Approach to Economic System Implementation Mechanisms. SOBI2006 Abstract. Produtseerija: TTÜ:

http://staff.ttu.ee/~math/SOBI2006/abstract.Ennuste.p

December 20, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

NB: TLÜ AR e-platvorm

 

NB! – http://etera.ee  

ETERA

TLÜ AR e-platvorm (vt täpsemalt – https://arvamus.postimees.ee/4343291/andres-kollist-oiglane-infouhiskond-teadus-ja-eestlus?utm_source ) milles ka nt ETA Toimetised paari klikiga kättesaadavad: näiteks lõik Jaan Tepandi’ teadusloogilisest artiklist:

Яан ТЕПАНДИ (1989) „ОБ ОБЩЕЙ СТРУКТУРЕ МЕХАНИЗМА УПРАВЛЕНИЯ

Экономикой“ – EESTI NSV TEADUSTE AKADEEMIA TOIMETISED. Ühiskonnateadused*. Köide 38 Nr 1: 1-15.

 

„ … Приведем высказывания по этому вопросу некоторых советских уче-

ных-экономистов, исследовавших проблемы механизма хозяйствования.

Л. И. Абалкин еще в 1973 г. писал, что «…хозяйственный механизм

представляет собой слож н у ю разветвленную систему пла-

нового управления социалистической экономикой с присущими ей фор-

мами и методами хозяйствования, экономическими рычагами и спосо-

бами воздействия на производство» [l]. Он подчеркивает принцип комп-

лексности этого механизма; «. ..эффективность каждого элемента хозяй-

ственного механизма возрастает при его включении в систему мер, и,

наоборот, резко уменьшается в случае некомплексного применения» [l].

Спустя 8 лет Л. И. Абалкин вынужден констатировать: «…в даль-

нейшем (разрядка моя. Я. Т.) и это одна из актуальных задач

экономической теории потребуется создать единую, целостную концеп-

цию хозяйственного механизма, охватывающую его структуру по различ-

ным уровням и аспектам. Для решения этой задачи потребуется целый

этап накопления знаний, обобщения опыта и сопоставления возможных

альтернатив. Сегодня для окончательного решения этой проблемы еще

не созрели соответствующие предпосылки, не создан необходимый науч-

ный задел» [2],

П. Г. Бунич, предлагая «основную модель хозяйственного механизма

управления», дающую в схематической форме обзор комплекса элемен-

тов этого механизма, вынужден также отметить, что «эта проблема отно-

сится к числу слабо исследованных экономической наукой» и что, по-

этому, его задача «состоит не столько в характеристике законченных

моделей, сколько в изложении исходных принципов их построения» [3].

И, наконец, В. И. Павлюченко писал: «К настоящему времени выпол- нено немало работ по проблемам хозяйственного механизма, однако в

большинстве из них рассматриваются его отдельные звенья и при этом отсутствует комплексный анализ данного механизма как единой целост-

ной системы взаимодействующих элементов. …“

 

*)

EESTI NSV TEADUSTE AKADEEMIA TOIMETISED. ÜHISKONNATEADUSED

ИЗВЕСТИЯ АКАДЕМИИ НАУК ЭСТОНСКОЙ ССР. ОБЩЕСТВЕННЫЕ НАУКИ

PROCEEDINGS OF THE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE ESTONIAN SSR. SOCIAL SCIENCES

1989, 38, 1.

 

SISUKORD

Jaan Tepandi. Sotsialistliku majanduse juhtimise mehhanismi üldstruktuurist.

Resümee 15

Urmas Sepp. Tootmise intensiivsuse hindamine ettevõtteväliste tegurite elimineerimisel.

Resümee 29

Ülo Ennuste. Alternatiivsete stohhastiliste planeerimismehhanismide mõningaid

probleeme. Resümee 41 (vt LISA A)

Borjss Mironov. Kirjaoskuse dünaamika Baltimaadel 18. sajandi teisel poolel ja

  1. sajandil; ajaloolise rekonstrueerimise katse. Resümee 50

Maria Tilk. Käsitööliste õpipoiste olukorrast Eestis 19. sajandi teisel poolel. Resümee 65

Toomas Püvi. Talude päriseksostmisest Eestimaa kubermangus 19. sajandi lõpul 67

Kadi Riismaa. Loodusvarade Instituudi loomine ja tegevus 80

Tiina Aili. Eesti Vabariigi haritlaskonna uurimise probleeme 89

KRIITIKAT JA BIBLIOGRAAFIAT

Teet Veispak. Kolmkümmend protsenti surmast 100

 

TOIMETUSKOLLEEGIUM: ENSV TA akadeemikud J. Kahk (esimees) ja J. Rebane, ENSV TA korrespondentliige H. Rätsep, ajaloodoktorid E. Kaup ja R. Pullat, majandusdoktorid Ü. Ennuste (aseesimees) ja R. Оtsason, majanduskandidaat M. Pavels о n, filoloogia- M. Reшmel.

Toimetuse aadress; 200105 Tallinn, Estonia pst. 7. Tel. 605-792

LISA A

LÕPULÕIK Ennuste ’89 ingl artiklist + viited + e.k ja v.k kokkuvõtted lk39-41 :
” … 6. Final remarks
The purpose of this paper was to clarify alternative planning mechanisms
of abstract economies under uncertainty. The paper examines them
mainly in the context of two optimal future price-limit coordination
mechanisms. In the case of the first mechanism the basic assumption is
that there exists a complete set of current (pre-event) state-dependent
future goods markets. The second version says that the agents have
current correct expectations about the optimal future (post-event) statedependent
prices and quantities. In the context of the initial model used
in this paper the elaboration of optimal price and quantity plans in both
mechanisms is achieved.
Also, issues of risk allocation in the mechanisms are clarified from two
aspects. First, the possibilities of diminishing unimplied managerial risks
are demonstrated. Second, the rate of risk aversion implied by the incentive
mechanism and an interval plan is studied, and, as a result, the
following assertion is made: the use of an interval plan instead plan will lessen the of a point risk aversion induced by the incentive mechanism and
stimulate the agents to choose riskier alternatives.
However, the mechanisms studied are based on highly oversimplified assumptions. So the problem remains to be studied on more realistic assumptions and not oversimplified models. Significant open problems include the implementation of a correct expectation equilibrium (informa- tion acquisition), imperfectly competitive markets with expectations, bid- ding for long-term contracts with relationship-specific investments under uncertainty, etc.

REFERENCES
1. Ennuste, Ü On stochastic equilibrium of centrally coordinated optimum plans. Proc. Acad. Sei. ESSR. Social Sciences, 1985, 34, N 3, 237 245 2. Green, J. Temporary general equilibrium in a sequential trading model with spot and future transactions, Econometrica, 1973, 41, 1103—1123
0 if — k= — oo
N{—k) =l >0 if oo<—/г<o
1/2 if k= 0.
3. Grandmont, J. Temporary general equilibrium theory. In; Handbook of Mathematical
Economics, 11. Amsterdam, 1982, 879—922.
4. Benassy, J. On competitive market mechanisms. Econometrica, 1986, 54, N 1,
95—108.
5. Makowski, L., Ostroy, J. Vickrey-Clarke-Groves mechanisms and perfect competition.
J. Economic Theory, 1987, 42, N 2, 244—261.
6. Hurwicz, L. Incentives aspects of decentralization. In: Handbook of Mathematical
Economics, 111. Amsterdam, 1986, 1441—1482.
7. Williams, S. Realization and Nash implementation: two aspects of mechanism
design. Econometrica, 1986, 54, N 1, 139—151.
8. Cohen, S. Incentives, iterative communication, and organizational control. J. Economic
Theory, 1980, 22, N 1, 37—55.
9. Marschak, T. Organization design. In; Handbook of Mathematical Economics, 111.
Amsterdam, 1986, 1359—1440. 10. Rees, R. Some problems in optimal pricing under uncertainty. J. Economics, 1982,
Suppi. 2, 63—78.
11. Bennett, J. Alternative price and quantity controls for regulation under uncertainty.—
J. Economics, 1984, 44, N 2, 103—115.
12. Saari, D. The representation problem and the efficiency of the price mechanisms.
J. Mathematical Economics, 1985, 14, N 2, 135—167.
13. Diamond, P. The role of a stock market in a general equilibrium model with technological
uncertainty. American Economic Review, 1967, 57, N 3, 759—776.
14. Dreze, J. Uncertainty and the firm in general equilibrium theory. Supplement to
the Economic Journal, 1985, 95, I—2o.1 —20.
15. Radner, R. Equilibrium under uncertainty. In: Handbook of Mathematical Economics,
11. Amsterdam, 1982, 923—1006.
16. Wright, R. Market structure and competitive equilibrium in dynamic models.
J. Economic Theory, 1987, 41, N 1, 189—201.
17. Allen, B. General equilibrium with rational expectations. In: Contributions to
Mathematical Economics. In Honor of Gerard Debreu. Amsterdam, 1986, 1—23.
18. Itami, H. Analysis of implied risk-taking behavior under a goal-based incentive
scheme. Manag. Sei., 1976, 23, N 2, 183—197.
19. Hart, О. Optimal labor contracts under asymmetric information: an introduction.
Rev. Econ. Studies, 1983, 50, N 1, 3—35.
20. Samuelson, W. Bidding for contracts. Manag. Sei., 1986, 32, N 12, 1533—1550.
Academy of Sciences of the Estonian SSR, Received
Institute of Economics Dec. 16, 19£7

ALTERNATIIVSETE STOHHASTILISTE PLANEERIMISMEHHANISMIDE
MÕNINGAID PROBLEEME
Artiklis on selgitatud alternatiivsete stohhastiliste planeerimismehhanismide lähteeeldusi
ja hinnanguid. Mehhanismid on koostatud abstraktsele optimeerimismajandusele,
mis koosneb kahest tegevussfäärist ja hõlmab kahte perioodi.
Alternatiivsed planeerimismehhanismid rakendavad kombineeritud koordineerimist
(hinnad ja limiidid), kuid põhitähelepanu on pööratud stohhastiliste plaaniliste hindade
mehhanismile. Samuti on vaadeldud nende mehhanismidega seotud planeerijate täiendavat
riskikartust ja võimalusi selle leevendamiseks.
Eesti NSV Teaduste Akadeemia
Majanduse Instituut
Toimetusse saabunud 16. XII 1987

НЕКОТОРЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ АЛЬТЕРНАТИВНЫХ
СТОХАСТИЧЕСКИХ МЕХАНИЗМОВ ПЛАНИРОВАНИЯ
В статье проанализированы основные предпосылки и оценки некоторых альтерна-
тивных стохастических механизмов планирования для абстрактной оптимизационной
экономики, охватывающей два периода и две сферы деятельности. Альтернативные
механизмы планирования применяют комбинированную координацию (цены и лимиты). Здесь же основное внимание уделено механизму плановых цен в условиях стохастики. Обсуждаются также неизбежные при таком механизме планирования проблемы риска и возможности снятия боязни риска среди плановиков.
Институт экономики Поступила в редакцию
Академии наук Эстонской ССР 16/XII 1987

LISA B – Eelöeldutega seonduvaid sotsiaal-küberneetilisi lisaprobleeme moodsas post-koloniaalses/tsensuurses ja IT-ajastule omases  kontekstis

Ajakirja Methis. Studia humaniora Estonica värske number on pühendatud Eesti NSV kultuuri ja Moskva keskvõimu suhete uurimisele postkolonialismi vaatepunktist


13.12.2017       Mari Sarv

Erinumbris käsitletakse uudse nurga alt Nõukogude Eesti kultuurielu suhteid Moskva kui ideoloogilise keskuse ettekirjutustega. Metoodiliseks raamistikuks on postkolonialismi uuringud: sotskolonialism on kolonialismi vorm, kus koloniaalsed strateegiad on lahutamatud kommunistliku ühiskonna ülesehitamise püüdest. Erinumbri fookuses on koloniaaldiskursuste ja kohalike kultuuriliste kujutelmade omavaheline suhestumine, nende suhete järkjärguline muutumine ning uute kultuuripraktikate väljakujunemine ja varasemate, traditsiooniliste kultuuripraktikate teisenemine koloniaalse võimumaatriksi survel. Sissejuhatavas artiklis analüüsib erinumbri koostaja Epp Annus, kuidas toimus sotskolonialismi diskursuste kehtestamine Eestis. Artiklites tutvustatakse mitmetasandilisi mehhanisme, mille abil sõjajärgset ühiskonda ideeliselt suunati. Stalinismiperioodi muutusi ilukirjanduses uurib Eve Annuk, džässmuusikas Heli Reimann, eesti folkloristikas Liina Saarlo. Arhiivileiu rubriigis tutvustab Tõnu Tannberg ÜK(b)P Keskkomitee kinnist kirja kui keskvõimu efektiivset kontrollmehhanismi, Margus Vihalemm vaatleb ka nõukogude Eesti ühismajandi argisensooriumi kui spetsiifilist tajumaailma. Hilisnõukogude perioodi kirjandust ja kunsti käsitlevad artiklid Kädi Talvojalt, Johanna Rossilt avavad Eesti NSV moderniseerumisprotsesside seoseid NSVL keskuses toimuvate arengutega.Number on ilmunud ajakirja kodulehel http://www.methis.ee/arhiiv/methis-nr-20-sugis-2017

Alates 2017. aastast on ajakiri indekseeritud rahvusvahelises andmebaasis Scopus.

Erinumbri ilmumist toetas Euroopa Liit Euroopa Regionaalarengu Fondi kaudu (Eesti-uuringute Tippkeskus TK 145), Eesti Teadusagentuuri uurimisprojektid PUT1218 ja  IUT 22-2.

Ajakirja Folklore nr 69 number on pühendatud vandenõuteooriatele ja kuulujuttudele


04.12.2017       Mari Sarv

Kirjutatud ja räägitud teksti mõjuvõim inimeste mõtlemise ja arvamuste üle on tänapäeva sotsiaalses ja poliitilises elus määravam kui interneti-eelsel ajastul. Sellepärast tähendab tänapäevane valeuudiste, kuulujuttude, linnamuistendite ja vandenõuteooriate, ja eelpoolnimetatute esitusega seotud huumori käsitlemine üha rohkem meedia uurimist selle originaalses toimimises. Temaatilise erinumbri kuus eesti, vene, valgevene, prantsuse ja slovaki teadlase uurimust on sellest tulenevalt nii või teisiti seotud ka ajakirjanduse ja sotsiaalmeedia uurimisega. Väljendades erinevaid poliitilisi ja kultuurilisi väärtusi, illusioone, eelarvamusi, hirme ja lootusi nii personaalsel kui kogukonna tasandil, võib kuulujuttudest, linnalegendidest ja vandenõuteooriatest saada poliitiline relv, mida poliitilised režiimid osavalt ära kasutavad. Amandine Regamey näitab seda analüüsides naissnaiperite legendi kasutamist Venemaaga seotud sõjalistes konfliktides. Anastasiya Astapova analüüsib Valgevene presidendivalimistega seotud kuuldusi ja nalju selles ühiskonnas valitsevate pingete võtmes. Liisi Laineste ja Eda Kalmre vaatlevad president Putini kultust ja tema väidetava kadumisega seotud sotsiaalmeedia kajastusi. Erinevaid konspiratsiooniteooriaid Slovakkias ja tänasel Venemaal käsitlevad Zuzana Panczova ja Alexander Panchenko. Eesti meedias Snowdeni skandaaliga seotud ohu ja hirmu konstrueerimisest kirjutab Mari-Liis Madisson. Erinumbri on külalistoimetajana koostanud Eda Kalmre, kelle sulest pärineb ka sissejuhatav artikkel.Number on lugejaile avatud veebilehel http://folklore.ee/folklore/vol69/.

Erinumbri ilmumist toetas Euroopa Liit Euroopa Regionaalarengu Fondi kaudu (Eesti-uuringute Tippkeskus TK 145), Eesti Teadusagentuuri uurimisprojekt IUT 22-5.

 

 

December 17, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Memo 5.XII 17

Memo rahvuspoliitika uurimuste kohta (visand 6.XII 17)

Kõigile kes on huvitatud sellest kuidas tsiviliseeritult/mittepopulistlikult koostada teaduspõhiselt usaldusväärseid rahvuspoliitilisi uuringuid: neid tuleb teha eeskätt rahvusvaheliselt teaduspõhiselt ning ajaliselt katkematult – aga mitte kitsalt kodukootult poliitkampade mahitamisel ning ilmselt barbaarsetel/korrumpeerunud kaalutlustel et nt imperatiivselt ilma teadusliku eeltsensuurita tekste rahvastele peale suruda – ilma rahvusvaheliste ning kodumaiste etniliste kiskjalike riskide muutumistega arvestamiseta.

Vt nt eeskujuks lõike ühest teaduspõhisest  lühiuurimusest väikese heterogeense rahvusriigi (transiidiriigi mis kiskjaliku minevikuga impeeriumi naaber) näitel (mis kõigetähtsam koos kohustuslike osundustega):

Kuhelj, Alenka (2011) „Rise of xenophobic nationalism in Europe: A case of Slovenia“ – Communist and Post-Communist Studies 44 (2011) 271–282

 

Keywords:

Minority rights

Nationalism

Post-communism

Citizenship policy

Erased

Slovenia

 

A b s t r a c t

The article focuses on rise of nationalism and xenophobia in Slovenia. It starts by

considering the issue of unrecognized minorities in Slovenia (former Yugoslavia nations)

that have no minority rights, despite being large groups, as many international organizations

for the protection of minorities have pointed out. A particular issue in this relation

for Slovenia is the ‘Erased’ – the individuals who did not acquire Slovenian citizenship

when Slovenia seceded from federal Yugoslavia – and despite the European Court of

Human Rights (ECHR) decision, the Slovenian state has still not recognized their rights,

which were violated in the post-independence period. The article also examines two other

minorities in Slovenia, the Jews and the Roma. The article finds Slovenia to be a closed,

non-globalised society which, in spite of its constitutional declaration to protect the rights

of minorities and other national communities, is seeking to retain a politically and

culturally homogeneous nation state.

©_ 2011 The Regents of the University of California. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights

reserved.

::::::::::::

References

 

Amnesty International Report, 2010. Annual report, Slovenia. Available at: http://thereport.amnesty.org/sites/default/files/AIR2010_AZ_EN.pdf#page¼236

(accessed 12.07.11.).

Berend, I., 2007. Save our Land and our Ancestral Race: From Xenophobia to Ethnic Cleansing in Central and Eastern Europe. (Unpublished manuscript).

Block, H., 2009. The restitution of holocaust-era Jewish communal property: an unfinished item on the Jewish diplomatic agenda. Israel Journal of Foreign

Affairs III (1) Available at: http://fodz.pl/download/issue7_block.pdf (accessed 23.10.11.).

Bugaric, B., 2008. Populism, liberal democracy, and the rule of law in central and Eastern Europe. Communist and Post-Communist Studies 41, 191–203.

Bugaric, B., 2011. Trpka resnica o levici Mladina, [online] 22 April. Available at: http://www.mladina.si/tednik/201116/trpka_resnica_o_levici (accessed 23.10.11.).

Council Directive 2000/43/EC of 29 June 2000 implementing the principle of equal treatment between persons irrespective of racial or ethnic origin.

Council Directive 2000/78/EC of 27 November 2000 establishing a general framework for equal treatment in employment and occupation.

Council of Europe, 1995. Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities (Strasbourg).

Government of the Republic of Slovenia, 2001. Statement of Good Intent Available at: http://www.slovenija2001.gov.si/10years/path/documents/goodintent

(accessed 12.07.11.).

Kern, S., 2011. Spain: the ‘Most Anti-Semitic Country in Europe’ Hudson New York, 7 April. Available at: http://www.hudson-ny.org/2020/spain-anti-semitic

(accessed 04.05.11.).

Kymlicka, W., 2002. Multiculturalism and minority rights: West and East. Journal on Ethnopolitics and Minority Issues in Europe 4, 16–21.

Klop_ci_c, V., Komac, M., Kr_zi_snik- Buki_c, V., 2003. Albanians, Bosniacs, Montenegrins, Croats, Macedonians and Serbs in the Republic of Slovenia. Institute for

Ethnic Studies. ECHR, Ljubljana. Kuric and Others v. Slovenia (2010), (Application no 26828/06).

Medved, F., 2007. From civic to ethnic community? The evolution of Slovenian citizenship. In: Bauböck, R., Perchinig, B., Sievers, W. (Eds.), Citizenship

Policies in the New Europe. Amsterdam University Press, Amsterdam, pp. 216–217.

Müller, J.-W., 2011. The Hungarian Tragedy Dissent, Available at: http://www.princeton.edu/wjmueller/DISSENT-Hungary-JWMueller.pdf (accessed 12.07.11.).

Amending Act to the Law Regulating the Status of Citizens of Other Successor Countries to the Former Socialist Federative Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) in

the Republic of Slovenia (ZUSDDD-B). OGRS 50/2010.

Aliens Act. OGRS 61/99, 30 July 1999a. Available at:http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/docid/3ae6b59c14.html (accessed 29.10.11.).

Law Regulating the Status of Citizens of Other Successor Countries to the Former Socialist Federative Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) in the Republic of

Slovenia (ZUSDDD). OGRS 61/1999b.

Constitution of the Republic of Slovenia. OGRS 33/1991, 23 December 1991. Available at: http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/docid/3ae6b59d0.html. (accessed

29.10.11.).

Citizenship Act of the Republic of Slovenia. OGRS 1/1991. Available at: http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/docid/3ae6b59118.html. (accessed 29.10.11.).

STA, 2010. Pahor: Dol_zni smo ohraniti spomin na grozote holokavsta (Anon., 2010). 27 January. Available at: http://www.siol.net/Slovenija/Aktualno/2010/

01/Holokavst.aspx (accessed 05.05.11.).

Persin, S., 2011. The Virtual Jewish History Tour, Slovenia: These Sentiments and the Holocaust Both Contributed to the Tiny Jewish Population in Slovenia at

Present. Jewish Virtual Library [online]. Available at: http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/vjw/slovenia.htm (accessed 11.07.11.).

Recommendation no 1201 (1993) of the Parliamentary Assembly of the council of Europe on an additional Protocol on the rights of minorities to the

European Convention on human rights.

Sarrazin, T., 2010. Der Bundesbanker schafft sich ab. FastBook Publishing. Religions, Jews Get Torah, First Rabbi and Synagogue (Anon., 2003). Slovenia

News, 27 February. Available at: http://slonews.sta.si/index.php?id¼672&s¼29 (accessed 05.05.11.).

Spritzer, D., 2009. Last Chance for Holocaust Restitution, 10 European Countries that Pose Obstacles for Restitution-Seekers. New Jersey Jewish Standard

[online] 3 July. Available at: http://www.jstandard.com/index.php/content/item/last_chance_for_holocaust_restitution3/ (accessed 12.07.11.).

Sylvetsky, R., Kempinsky, Y., 2011. Anti-Semitism, Circa 2010. IsraelNationalNews. 23 January. Available at: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.

aspx/141896 (accessed 15.07.11.). References

Amnesty International Report, 2010. Annual report, Slovenia. Available at: http://thereport.amnesty.org/sites/default/files/AIR2010_AZ_EN.pdf#page¼236

(accessed 12.07.11.).

Law Regulating the Status of Citizens of Other Successor Countries to the Former Socialist Federative Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) in the Republic of

Slovenia (ZUSDDD). OGRS 61/1999b.

Constitution of the Republic of Slovenia. OGRS 33/1991, 23 December 1991. Available at: http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/docid/3ae6b59d0.html. (accessed

29.10.11.).

Citizenship Act of the Republic of Slovenia. OGRS 1/1991. Available at: http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/docid/3ae6b59118.html. (accessed 29.10.11.).

STA, 2010. Pahor: Dol_zni smo ohraniti spomin na grozote holokavsta (Anon., 2010). 27 January. Available at: http://www.siol.net/Slovenija/Aktualno/2010/

01/Holokavst.aspx (accessed 05.05.11.).

Persin, S., 2011. The Virtual Jewish History Tour, Slovenia: These Sentiments and the Holocaust Both Contributed to the Tiny Jewish Population in Slovenia at

Present. Jewish Virtual Library [online]. Available at: http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/vjw/slovenia.htm (accessed 11.07.11.).

Recommendation no 1201 (1993) of the Parliamentary Assembly of the council of Europe on an additional Protocol on the rights of minorities to the

European Convention on human rights.

Sarrazin, T., 2010. Der Bundesbanker schafft sich ab. FastBook Publishing. Religions, Jews Get Torah, First Rabbi and Synagogue (Anon., 2003). Slovenia

News, 27 February. Available at: http://slonews.sta.si/index.php?id¼672&s¼29 (accessed 05.05.11.).

Spritzer, D., 2009. Last Chance for Holocaust Restitution, 10 European Countries that Pose Obstacles for Restitution-Seekers. New Jersey Jewish Standard

[online] 3 July. Available at: http://www.jstandard.com/index.php/content/item/last_chance_for_holocaust_restitution3/ (accessed 12.07.11.).

Sylvetsky, R., Kempinsky, Y., 2011. Anti-Semitism, Circa 2010. IsraelNationalNews. 23 January. Available at: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.

aspx/141896 (accessed 15.07.11.).

 

 

December 5, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

NB: ZACK ‘9

Zack, Naomi (2009) Ethics for Disaster (Studies in Social, Political, and Legal Philosophy) Kindle:

Location 2036:

“On July 11, 2008, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) received media attention for its monetary revaluation of an American human life. In May, the EPA had revised its figure from $7.8 to $6.9 million. This ‘value of statistical life” entails that the lifesaving results of some practices can be balanced against their costs.” –

NB need on Zack ‘9 järgi ameeriklaste keskmised statistilised hinnangud katastroofide tingimustes – seega ilmselt madalamad kui vastavad prognostilised informaalsed küberhinnad eliidi p.c kohta parajasti EL/28 puhul hübriidsõja tingimustes sanktsioonide sõja eesrindel.

Location 1138:

“Perhaps the real questions are these: How much protection from danger do we want for which we are willing to pay with the liberties we take for granted? What risks would or should we choose to take to safeguard our liberties?”

Location 1147:

“If prevention is confused with preparation and response, then the civilian rights and risks in those phases are easily overlooked. In this chapter, I develop an optimistic application of classic social contract theory to disaster preparation and response. I then consider a dismissal from postmodern pessimists and attempt to address that position with the help of Art Spiegelman. SOCIAL CONTRACT THEORY For the United States, the idea of a
social contract at the foundation of civil society, or society under government, dates back to John Locke and Thomas Hobbes in the seventeenth century. Of course, theirs are not the only ideas as to how government originated and can be justified. This chapter began with reference to the tradition of naturalistic political theories, dating from Aristotle’s Politics, whereby government is understood to have developed from smaller forms of human organization.6 There are also supernatural political theories, whereby government is a creation of God (St. Augustine’), and grand historical political theories, whereby government is the expression of ohter principles guiding the natural, human, and social order (G. W. F Hegel and Karl Marx”). There are utopian, Manichean, and anarchistic theories of government, and so forth. Moreover, Hobbes and Locke are not the sole architects of social contract theory. Thomas Aquinas, despite his debt to Aristotle, mentions the obligations of rulers in an early social contract manner.9 JeanJacques Rousseau provided a variation on Locke’s ideas in the
eighteenth century, substituting the elusive notion of the general will for the will of the majority.10 John Rawls, during the second half of the twentieth century, extended social contract theory to more egalitarian ideals than envisioned by Hobbes or Locke with his conception of justice as fairness.”

 

November 30, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Remark 9.X 17

Remark (Visand 25.X 17 )

Demograafia ja rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse seostest avatud väikeriigis turbulentses olukorras – linnulennult mõningate hiljutiste sotsiaal-küberneetiliste metoodikaliste publikatsioonide alusel – Dr Jaak Uibu 29.IX 2017 Ettepaneku „Eesti rahvastikupoliitika kavand“ (vt LISA) toetuseks

Alustame ääremärkusi Momota (2016) osundamisega milles muide ka eesti mõningate demograafiliste fertiilsuse indikaatorite analüüse – kahjuks küll ainult kitsalt vanamoodi kitsalt rahvusliku heaolu kriteeriumi põhiselt stabiilses olukorras. Turbulentsetes hübriidsõja tingimustes (nt Soomre, 2015; Freedman, 2017) eriti võimalike katastroofide olulisete tõenäosuste (Bayes’like) ilmnemiste puhul (nt etniline kodusõda naaberriigi ässitusel) on aga eeskätt eksistentsiaalsed rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse indikaatorid (nt avatud väikeriikides lähendina konvergents liitlasriikidega (sh  liikmesriigina majanduslike sanktsioonide sõjas, Ennuste, 2014) ning vastavate ressursside olemid – eeskätt inim- ja sotsiaal-kapitali võidud/kaotused (Zack, 2009; Chichilnisky, 2009 ning eriti ELi Post-GDP progressi vastavatest indikaatoritest annab hea ülevaate Palumbo, 2013 – seda eeskätt Stiglitz‘i arvukaid töid järgides: tuleb aga kohe hoiatada et enne 2014 või nii oli ELis suhteliselt stabiilne areng ning jätkusuutlikkuse tõenäosuste dünaamika peegeldamine monotoonsete funktsioonidega adekvaatne – kuid edaspidi turbulentsemates hübriidsõja tingimustes (nt Freedman, 2017) ning suuremates katastroofide ohtudes (võimalikud oluliste  arenguindikaatorite järsud langused (10;20)% ning seega adekvaatsetes mudelites funktsioonide katkemised) nõuavad ülelitsustatud (Wiener) monotoonsuse postulaadi (Chichilnisky arvukad publikatsioonid Musta Luige kohta) asendamist komplitseeritumatega – nt rahvusliku jätkusuutlikuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse rakendamist: mida allpool on igati püütud rõhutada koos mudelite ingredientide sisehindade projitseerimisega – eriti katasrtroofides üliolulise inimressursside küberhindade prognoosimisega.

Muide Momota (2016) sisaldab demograafilise projitseerimise mitmeid häid publikatsioonide osundusi kuni Samuelson (1975) mis siia Abstract’i järgi on siia kopeeritud – ja selles osas võiks Uibu Ettepanekule suureks toeks olla (muidugi kui õnnestub nende hankimiseks Riigikogul veidike raha leida – muide meil ise taoliste publikatsioonide resultaatide produtseerimine läheks magnituudides kallimaks):

Momota, Akira (2016) „Intensive and extensive margins of fertility, capital accumulation, and economic welfare“ – Journal of Public Economics 133: 90–110.

Keywords:

Childlessness

Economic growth (NB selle asemel peaks moodsast sotsiaal-küberneetilisest rakursist meie kontekstis olema (hübriidsõja tingimustes mitmes dimensioonis tsivilisatsiooni laagri eesrindel) – „eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse indikaatoritega (nt nende tõenäosuste maksimeerimine)“ – üe)

Extensive margin of fertility

Income redistribution

Intensive margin of fertility

Overlapping generations (NB „etnilise struktuuri dünaamika“ peaks meie kontekstis kindlasti olema ka ilmutatud kujul kirjeldatud – üe)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of low fertility on long-term capital accumulation and economic welfare. We find that the impact differs depending on whether the low fertility arises from a decrease in the fertility of mothers (the intensive margin of fertility) or the motherhood rate (the extensive margin of fertility). We show that an increase in the fertility of mothers decreases the capital stock and economic welfare. Conversely, we identify a U-shaped relationship between the extensive margin of fertility and the capital stock because of the existence of two opposing effects, such that the decline in fertility may reduce economic welfare. Furthermore, we show that an intragenerational income redistribution policy can eliminate the welfare loss resulting from the incomplete market.

© 2015 Elsevier B.V.

(NB – ka eesti mõningaid vastavaid indikaatoreid on analüüsitud)

 

References

Aaronson, D., Lange, F., Mazumder, B., 2014. Fertility transitions along the extensive and

intensive margins. Am. Econ. Rev. 104 (11), 3701–3724.

Barro, R.J., Becker, G.S., 1989. Fertility choice in a model of economic growth.

Econometrica 57 (2), 481–501.

Baudin, T., de la Croix, D., Gobbi, P., 2015a. Development policies when accounting for the

extensive margin of fertility. IRES Discussion Paper 2015-3.

Baudin, T., de la Croix, D., Gobbi, P., 2015b. Fertility and childlessness in the United States.

Am. Econ. Rev. 105 (6), 1852–1882.

Becker, G.S., Barro, R.J., 1988. A reformulation of the economic theory of fertility. Q. J. Econ.

103 (1), 1–25.

Blanchard, O.J., Fischer, S., 1989. Lectures on Macroeconomics. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.

d’Albis, H., Augeraud-Véron, E., Schubert, K., 2010. Demo-economic equilibriawhen childbearing

age is endogenous. J. Math. Econ. 44 (6), 1211–1221.

de la Croix, D., Pestieau, P., Ponthière, G., 2012. How powerful is demography? The serendipity

theorem revisited. J. Popul. Econ. 25 (3), 899–922.

Deardorff, A.V., 1976. The optimum growth rate for population: comment. Int. Econ. Rev.

17 (2), 510–515.

Diamond, P.A., 1965. National debt in a neoclassical growth model. Am. Econ. Rev. 55 (5),

1126–1150.

Doepke, M., 2008. Growth takeoffs. In: Durlauf, S.N., Blume, L. (Eds.), The New Palgrave

Dictionary of Economics, Second ed. Palgrave MacMillan, New York.

Galor, O., 2005. From stagnation to growth: unified growth theory. In: Aghion, P., Durlauf,

  1. (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth. Elsevier, Norh-Holland, Amsterdam,
  2. 171–293.

Gobbi, P.E., 2013. A model of voluntary childlessness. J. Popul. Econ. 26 (3), 963–982.

Human Fertility Database, 2015. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

(Germany) and Vienna Institute of Demography (Austria). (available at www.

humanfertility.org data downloaded on April 25, 2015).

Lucas, R.E., 2002. The industrial revolution: past and future. Lectures on Economic

Growth. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.

Michel, P., Pestieau, P., 1993. Population growth and optimality: when does the serendipity

hold? J. Popul. Econ. 6 (4), 353–362.

Michel, P., Pestieau, P., 1998. Fiscal policy in a growth model with both altruistic and

nonaltruistic agents. South. Econ. J. 64 (3), 682–697.

Michel, P., Pestieau, P., 2005. Fiscal policy with agents differing in altruism and ability.

Economica 72 (285), 121–135.

Ministry of Health, Labour and Wealth, 2010. Shussyou ni Kansuru Toukei (in Japanese)

[Statistics Concerning Fertility]. Ministry of Health, Labour and Wealth, Tokyo

Momota, A., Horii, R., 2013. Timing of childbirth, capital accumulation, and economic welfare.

Oxf. Econ. Pap. 65 (2), 494–522.

Monstad, K., Propper, C., Salvanes, K.G., 2008. Education and fertility: evidence froma natural

experiment. Scand. J. Econ. 110 (4), 827–852.

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, 2006. Nihon no Shourai

Jinkou Suikei: Heisei 18 Nen 12 Gatsu Suikei (in Japanese) [Population Projection of

Japan in December, 2006]. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research,

Tokyo.

OECD, 2015. OECD Family Database. OECD, Paris (www.oecd.org/social/family/database.

htm).

Razin, A., Ben-Zion, U., 1975. An intergenerational model of population growth. Am. Econ.

Rev. 65 (5), 923–933.

Samuelson, P.A., 1975. The optimum growth rate for population. Int. Econ. Rev. 16 (3),

531–538.

Jätkame Dr Zack (2009) monograafiaga mis muide sisaldab U.S. EPA poolt koostatud keskmise ameeriklase nn rahvuslikku statistilist hinda katastroofide hirmude tingimustes. Muide autor küll vihjab et eliiti kuuluva isiku hind on oluliselt kõrgem kuid jätab märkimata kuidas hinnata kriminaalseid ning terroristlikke tüüpe. Muide sotsiaal küberneetiliste mudelite optimeerimisel dekompositsioonimeetodil kõigile ingredientidele kujunevad informaalsed endogeensed prognostilised hinnad ehk Lagrange’i kordajad ning siinkohal nimetame neid küberhindadeks (nt ka Naevdal, 2016) – sh nii agentidele kui ka institutsioonidele nagu ka traditsioonilistele ressurssidele:

Zack, Naomi (2009) Ethics for Disaster. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA):164, Kindle.

Ethics for Disaster addresses the moral aspects of hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, plane crashes, Avian Flu pandemics, and other disasters. Naomi Zack explores how these catastrophes illuminate the existing inequalities in society. By employing the moral systems of utilitarianism, deontology, and virtue ethics to analyze the consequences of recent natural disasters, Zack reveals the special plight of the poor, disabled, and infirm when tragedy strikes. Zack explores the political foundations of social contract theory and dignitarianism and invites readers to rethink the distinction between risk in normal times and risk in disaster. Using both real life and fictional examples, Zack forcefully argues for the preservation of normal moral principles in times of national crisis and emergency, stressing the moral obligation of both individuals and government in preparing for and responding to disaster (https://books.google.ee/books?isbn=0742564959  

NB: Veelkord: (a) tegemist on keskmiste statistiliste hindadega – seega autor küll vihjab asjaolule et nt positiivse eliidi puhul on tegemist suuremate väärtustega – kuid ei erista nt positiivse ja negatiivse aktiivsusega tüüpe ega ka patriootilisi terroristidest jne; muide Wiener (1948) juba oma homoöostaasi mudelites (sotiaalküberneetilistes tasakaalu mudelites mis sisaldavad ka sotsiaalseid institutsinaalseid mehhanisme) eristas nii sulisid kui ka lolle. Lindmäe (2015: IX Köide lk542) rõhutab eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse kindlustamisel meie vabadusvõitlejate kangelaslikkuse erilist väärtustamist rahvusliku sotsiaalkapitali mahu suurendamisel: nii Esimeses – aga eriti Teises Vabadussõjas (muide HTM ETISe järgi Prof Lindmäe on nulltegelane sest vasakpoolsete võimurite silmis on Teise Vabadussõja katastroofide mainimine tabu) (b) Zack‘i hinnad on informaalsed retrospektiivsed elu kaotamise hinnad – nagu autor väidab on need kõrgemad statistilistest elukindlustuse hindadest – kuid ilmselt madalamad prospektiivsetest oletuslikest ressursikaotuse küberhindadest.

Muide hübriidsõja katastroofide tingimustes positiivse rahvuslase hinna hindamisel Zack’i järgi ilmselt sotsiaalkapitali p.c sisse tuleb eestiliselt arvestada riigi kaitsekulutused (nii kodu- kui ka välismaised) ja seetõttu need võivad näida politikaanidele ülehinnatutena. Zack (2009) järgi keskmise positiivse usalase hind võis olla hiljutiste looduskatastroofide kontekstis ligemale tosina miljoni euro ringis – seega Bayes’likult kalibreeritult (nt Tongeren ja Picavet, 2016) meile okupatsioonides möödunud sajandis inimsusvataselt tekitatud inimkaotuste ressursside küberhinda võib esialgselt lähenduselt paushaalselt hinnata 2-1 tn prospektiivse kübereuro ringi (intuitiivselt ülelihtsustatutult ühemehe piiratud vaatevinklist) – millega tuleks arvestada uute annektsioonide heidutamise kulutustesse panustamisel.

NBNB Katastroofide küberneetika rakursist Zack (2009) piirdub põhiliselt looduskatastroofidega milledes inimtegevus on ainult kaudne – kahjuks otseselt inimtegevusega seotud katastroofe ei käsitle – märgime et tänavune Nobeli Rahupreemia omistati tuumarelvade keelustamise alal – seega eeskätt inimpõhise globaalkatastroofi tõenäosuse erodeerimise alal – meile oluliselt ka rahvusliku heidutusvõime tõenäosuse suurendamise alal (nt RB projektiga jne)

P.S.: siinjuures tuleb rõhutada et klassikalised rahvusliku heaolu maksimeerimise teooriad üldiselt varjatult ning ülelihtsustatult (Wiener, 1948) elimineerivad nii katastroofide kui ka nt terroristide/renegaatide ning etniliste polaarsuste faktorite peegeldamise kui normaalolukorras harvaesinevad – ning seega on sobimatud hübriidsõdade käsitlemisel (vt Chichlnitsky) kus rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse hoidmine üle kriitilise piiri  hoidmine (Ennuste ja Rajasalu, 2002) on primaarne – ning seega ka inimkapitali ja sotsiaalkapitali (sh rahvusliku teadmusvara ning reputatsiooni (Lindmäe, 2015: 542)) ja institutsionaalsete ressursside (sh rahvuslike teadmusstruktuuride kvaliteedi (nt ilma nõidade ja pendlite) mahtude ning  küberhindade indikaatorid/indeksid on ülimalt olulised (Post-GDP). Zack (2009) eetika järgi obligatoorne on avalikult rahvuslike katstroofide vältimiseks ning leevandamiseks ettevalmistuste tegemine (vt ka Ennuste, 2009) ning seejuures nii positiivse natsionalismi (nt väikerahvuse jätkusuutlikkuse) kui ka negatiivse kolonialistliku (põhirahvuste hävitamine okupatsiooni banditismiga, Fukuyama, 2014) ilmutatud eristamine.

Just äsja Võrgus ilmus tasulisena

DP12350 Can financial incentives reduce the baby gap? Evidence from a reform in maternity leave benefits

Author(s): Anna Raute

Date of Publication: October 2017

Programme Area(s): LE, PE

Keyword(s): Fertility, fertility gaps, paid maternity leave

Abstract: To assess whether earnings-dependent maternity leave positively impacts fertility and narrows the baby gap between high educated (high earning) and low educated (low earning) women, I exploit a major maternity leave benefit reform in Germany that considerably increases the financial incentives for higher educated and higher earning women to have a child. In particular, I use the large differential changes in maternity leave benefits across education and income groups to estimate the effects on fertility up to 5 years post reform. In addition to demonstrating an up to 22% increase in the fertility of tertiary educated versus low educated women, I find a positive, statistically significant effect of increased benefits on fertility, driven mainly by women at the middle and upper end of the education and income distributions. Overall, the results suggest that earnings-dependent maternity leave benefits, which compensate women commensurate with their opportunity cost of childbearing, could successfully reduce the fertility rate disparity related to mothers’ education and earnings.

 

MISCELLANEA: Et  meelde tuletada et  oleme hübriidsõja (vt nt Freedman, 2017) tingimustes eriti strateegilise kommunikatsiooni rindel –  ning samas polaarsetes etnilistes kompeksetes  olukordades – seda eriti piiriüleselt:

Ahlerup, Pelle; Gustav Hansson (2011) „Nationalism and government effectiveness“ – Journal of Comparative Economics Volume 39, Issue 3, September 2011, Pages 431–451.

A b s t r a c t

Nation-building is believed to have a positive influence on economic and political outcomes, especially in countries with ethnically fragmented populations. Yet nationalism, an indicator of successful nation-building, has been empirically linked to protectionism and intolerance, which suggests that dismal performance is a more likely outcome. This paper empirically identifies an inverted U-shaped relationship between nationalism and government effectiveness. The results suggest that the level of nationalism in the population is higher than optimal in most countries. It is further shown that nationalism may mitigate the negative effects of ethnic heterogeneity in former colonies. We find no clear linkages between nationalism and trade openness. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bosker, Maarten; Joppe de Ree (2014)) „Ethnicity and the spread of civil war“- Journal of Development Economics, Volume 108: 206-221.

Civil wars tend to cluster in particular areas of the world. We provide empirical evidence that cross-border conflict spillovers are an important factor in explaining this pattern. Moreover, we show that ethnicity plays a key role in conditioning the spread of civil wars. Only ethnic wars tend to spill over, and ethnic wars are more likely to spill over along ethnic lines. The latter result is robust to the inclusion of a host of (other) crossborder characteristics, such as geographical factors and trade intensity. We estimate that a neighboring ethnic civil war increases the risk of an outbreak of ethnic civil war on the home territory by 4–6% points.

© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chanel, Oliver; Graciela Chichilnisky (2013) „Valuing life: Experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events“ – Ecological Economics 85: 198–205: doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.03.004

Chichilnisky, Graciela; Kristen A. Sheeran (2013) „A changing climate in economics: Responses to crisis“ –  Ecological Economics, Volume 85: 143-144.

„ … This article (Chanel&Chichilnisky, 2013 – üe) argues that global environmental phenomena like climate change, major extinction events or flutype pandemics can have catastrophic consequences, but catastrophes are either ignored or underestimated in standard economic decision theory under uncertainty that emerged from the theoretical structure introduced by Von Neumann and Morgenstern. By assessing the outcomes involved and their probabilities – especially those concerning human life – the standard economic theory of choice under uncertainty is supposed to yield optimal decisions. However, the widely used expected utility theory values life in terms of the low probability of death someone would be willing to accept in order to receive extra payment. Common sense and experimental evidence refute this way of valuing life. This article provides a theoretical alternative tested through experimental evidence. It reports on people’s unwillingness to accept a low probability of death that is contrary to expected utility predictions. The article is based on new axioms of choice under uncertainty defined by Chichilnisky (1996, 2009), and it focuses on a new axiom that extends those of Von Neumann and Morgenstern allowing extreme responses to extreme events, fully characterizing the choice criteria that these new axioms imply. The authors show that the implied decision criteria are a combination of expected utility

with extreme responses, and they demonstrate experimentally that

these criteria – which are new in the literature – are more consistent

with experimental observations about how humans make decisions

when faced with catastrophic events such as death. From this emerges a new way to value life, using new experimental evidence as well as new theoretical foundations. …“

Chichilnisky, Graciela  (2010) „The foundations of statistics with black swans“ –

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2009.09.007Get rights and content

Abstract

We extend the foundation of statistics to integrate rare events that are potentially catastrophic, called black swans.These include natural hazards, regime change in complex systems, market crashes, catastrophic climate change and major episodes of species extinction. Classic statistics and physics treat such events as ‘outliers’ and often disregard them. We propose a new axiomatization of subjective probability requiring equal treatment for rare and frequent events, and characterize the likelihoods or subjective probabilities that the axioms imply. These coincide with countably additive measures and yield normal distributions when the sample has no black swans. When the sample includes black swans, the new likelihoods are represented by a combination of countable and finitely additive measures with both parts present. The axioms were introduced in Chichilnisky (2000, 2002); they extend the axiomatic foundations of Savage (1954)Villegas (1964) and Arrow (1971) and they are valid for bounded and unbounded samples (Chichilnisky, 1996b). The finitely additive measures assign more weight to rare events than do standard distributions and in that sense explain the persistent observation of power laws and ‘heavy tails’ that eludes classic theory.

Chichilnisky, Graciela (2009) „The topology of fear“ – Journal of Mathematical Economics 45:  807–816.

A b s t r a c t

For many years experimental observations have raised questions about the rationality of economic agents—for example, the Allais Paradox or the Equity Premium Puzzle. The probleem is a narrow notion of rationality that disregards fear. This article extends the notion of rationality with new axioms of choice under uncertainty and the decision criteria they imply (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). In the absence of catastrophes, the old and the newapproach coincide, and both lead to standard expected utility. A sharp difference emerges when facing rare events with important consequences, or catastrophes. Theorem 1 establishes that a classic axiom of choice under uncertainty – Arrow’s Monotone Continuity axiom, or its relatives introduced by DeGroot, Villegas, Hernstein and Milnor – postulate rational behavior that is ‘insensitive’ to rare events as defined in (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). Theorem 2 replaces this axiom with another that allows extreme responses to extreme events, and characterizes the implied decision criteria as a combination of expected utility with extremal responses. Theorems 1 and 2 offer a new understanding of rationality consistent with previously unexplained observations about decisions involving rare and catastrophic events, decisions involving fear, the Equity Premium Puzzle, ‘jump diffusion’ processes and ‘heavy tails’, and it agrees with (Debreu, G., 1953. Valuation equilibrium and Pareto optimum. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 40, 588–592) formulation of market behavior and his proof of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand theorem.

© 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

le Carrè, John (2017 Sept 7) A Legasy of Spies. Kindle

Interweaving past with present so that each may tell its own intense story, John le Carré has spun a single plot as ingenious and thrilling as the two predecessors on which it looks back: The Spy Who Came in from the Cold and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. In a story resonating with tension, humor and moral ambivalence, le Carré and his narrator Peter Guillam present the reader with a legacy of unforgettable characters old and new…

 Clinton, Hillary Rodham (2017 12.IX) What Happened. Kindle Edition.

Amazon: “ … She lays out how the 2016 election was marked by an unprecedented assault on our democracy by a foreign adversary (Sic! üe). By analyzing the evidence and connecting the dots, Hillary shows just how dangerous the forces are that shaped the outcome, and why Americans need to understand them to protect our values and our democracy in the future. … “

NB: kübersõda infomanipuleerimisega kahjustab rahvuslikku sotsiaalkapitali nii rahvusliku teadmusruumi hägustamisega kui ka rahvuslike väärtuste moonutamisega

Ennuste, Ü. (2014) “Towards Special Methodological Problems of Macro-Optimal Sociocybernetic International Economic Sanctioning Coordination Modelling: Introductory Remarks oPreliminary Postulates and Conjectures.” – Baltic Journal of European Studies Tallinn University of Technology (ISSN 2228-0588), Vol. 4, No. 2 (17), 150-158:

http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT

Ennuste, Ü. (2009) “Estonian hyper-crisis lessons confirm importance of more effective high quality coordination/regulation and harmonisation: Mechanism design theoretic approach” In: Aksel Kirch and András Inotai (Eds.) EUROPEAN UNION: CURRENT POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ISSUES. Institute for European Studies Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, 11-35: http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No6/iesp_no6.pdf

Ennuste, Ü. and Rajasalu, T. (2002) „Critical Probability of the EU Eastern Enlargement Project’s Institutional Failure: Aspects of Calibrated Economic Impacts of the Failure.“  In: Aksel Kirch and Juhan Sillaste (eds.) Monitoring Preparations of Transition Countries for EU-Accession. 4th International Conference 4-6 October, 2002 Pärnu, Estonia, The Institute for European Studies, Tallinn, 212-227:

http://www.ies.ee/iesp/ennuste.pdf 

Freedman, Lawrence (2017) The Future of War: A History. By Lawrence Freedman. PublicAffairs: 400 pages; $30. Allen Lane; £25.

https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21730133-lawrence-freedman-traces-long-history-predictionsrarely-correctthat-fighting-would-be:  “Today, advocates believe that another technological advance could fundamentally change the character of war. Unmanned systems equipped with artificial intelligence and varying degrees of autonomy suggest a future of war in which machines take the brunt of the fighting and make decisions at hyper-speed. Cyber-weapons that blind and disable the enemy’s own systems could become more important than physical violence in determining outcomes.

Will these technologies make war more likely by making it more acceptable? Sir Lawrence is sceptical. The bar for interstate wars between major powers will, mercifully, remain high thanks to the deterrent of nuclear weapons. On current trends, most wars will be civil wars in weak states, or “hybrid” wars in which cyber-disruption, false information and infiltration are the weapons of choice. Fighting is more likely to be in big cities than in open terrain, because that is where most people live. The battle of Mosul is a reminder of how lethal and destructive urban warfare remains for both fighters and civilians.

But even this is uncertain: the one thing that Sir Lawrence is sure of is that predictions of future war rarely get it right. His message to policymakers is to beware those who tout “the ease and speed with which victory can be achieved while underestimating the resourcefulness of adversaries”. Anybody who thinks otherwise should read this book.”

Kissinger, Henry (2014) „World Order“ Allen Lane: 420.

Analüüsib maailma poliit-institutsionaalseid disaine ning vastavaid kaasuseid – ei jäta märkimata ka meie 2007 aasta venepronksmäsu aegset venevalitsuse poolest diversioonilist küberrünnakut meie e-riigi vastu kui õppetundi vt:

Index lk 408 – Estonia, Russian cyberattac on, 345.

Tõsi – meie ITi mehed näivad sageli hindavat et see rünnak ei vääri vast enam märkimist eriti e-valimiste eelselt sest toimus primitiivsel tehnilisel tasemel.

Nt Jaak Ennuste: „ … DoS rünnakud olid Pronksiöö ajal (mitte DNS, …). Aga … need rünnakud koormavad vaid mingi veebilehe või teenuse üle ja see muutub kättesaamatuks. Aga see rünnak ei muuda ega lisa hääletustulemusi. … Eestis on nii, et kui arvutiga mingi diversiooni pärast valida ei saa, siis lähed jaoskonda ja demokraatia töötab.“

Kuid Kissinger’i selle poliitiliselt tõesti kaaluka raamatu (vt nt*) kontekstis on tuumarelvastuse ajastul mistahes piiriülesed diversioonid teise riigi siseasjadesse globaalse riskiga ning lubamatud – seda eriti seoses – nagu Kissinger peatükis „Cyber Thechnology and World Order“ lk350 väidab – et – Internetiajastul kus valitseb teadete/säutsude välküleküllus ning terrorist-trollide manipulatsioonid jne – paratamatult nii rahvuste arukus/tarkus kui riskiteadmus kärbuvad ning kah võimurite subjektiivne kiskjalik/militaarne otsustusloogika ja moraal võivad hägustuda globaalriskiliselt mitte-kompromislikuks – kui lastakse … (vt raamatust vastavat pragmaatilist pt lk 371-375 ).

*http://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/oct/01/world-order-by-henry-kissinger-review-account

„ … Kissinger was a key shaper of a world order that remained stable for a quarter century or more until our own post-cold war era. This urgently written book is a fine account of world order in the longue duree, and also a memorandum to future generations of policymakers that the next half-century will be no easier to manage than the most recent one.“

P.S.: vt kah http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/260e3168-b177-11e4-831b-00144feab7de.html#axzz3SGxYZuZu

P.S.: Nobelist Professor Kissinger (s 1923; Nobelist 1972) on olnud rahvusvaheliste tuumarelvakokkulepete pea-arhitekte – kuid ilmselt alates Putin’ist need kokkulepped enam ei pea ja seega ka Kissinger’i hinnangud selles monograafias totaalse tuumasõja puhkemise peaaegu 0-tõenäsusele ei pruugi enam paika pidada. Muide tänavu on Oxford university’s Future of Humanity Institute and the Global Challenges Foundation on välja tulnud apokalüptilise 0,005% hüpoteesiga (TF.com 13.II 15).

Lindmäe, Herbert (2015-1999) SUVESÕDA … 1941, Tartu, Estonia OÜ Greif: 4825lk (sic! – IX Köidet).

Autor rõhutab Teise Vabadussõja tingimustes eriti isiku kangelaslikkuse ning patriotismi väärtust ning selle hindamist.

Memo to 27.16 XI: XI, of the European Parliament of 23 October 16 Report A8-2016-0317

This paragraph 6 requires the EU/28-s here, particularly from third countries targeted for terrorist propaganda and the improvement of preventive action against it, especially on the Web:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=TA&reference=P8-TA-2016-0440&language=ET&ring=A8-2016-0317

Naevdal, Eric (2016) „Catastrophes and ex post shadow prices — How the value of the last fish in a lake is infinity and why we should not care (much)“ – Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Volume 132, Part B, December 2016, Pages 153–160: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.04.021

Abstract

Catastrophic risk is currently a hotly debated topic. This paper contributes to this debate by showing two results. First, it is shown that for a certain class of optimal control problems, the derivative of the value function with respect to the initial state may approach infinity as the state variable goes to zero, even when the first-order partial derivatives of the integrand and transition functions are finite. In the process, it is shown that standard phase diagrams used in optimal control theory contain more information than generally recognized and that the value function itself may be easily illustrated in these diagrams. Second, we show that even if the value function has an infinite derivative at some point, it is not correct to avoid this point in finite time at almost any cost. The results are illustrated in a simple linear-quadratic fisheries model and proven for a more general class of growth functions.

Palumbo, Leonardo (2013) „A post-GDP critique of the Europe 2020 strategy“- Procedings – Social and Behavioral Sciences 72: 47 – 63 (European Framework for Measuring Progress (E-Frame): Proceedings of the Expert Meeting on Social Capital)

Abstract

2012 is the year the European Commission will conduct an assessment of its roadmap on “GDP and beyond: Measuring progress in a changing world”. The paper gives an overview of the limits to GDP and the relevance to measuring social capital and sustainability. The arguments and evaluations on limits to growth made by Joseph Stiglitz, Tim Jackson, Amaryta Sen and other academics are employed. This report examines the overarching EU strategy to replace the Lisbon Strategy, the Europe 2020 Strategy, with Beyond GDP arguments. Then the room for the Europe 2020 Strategy to promote wellbeing and

sustainability is evaluated. The report assesses the approach to promoting growth and jobs; poverty reduction; sustainability; and education in the EU strategy. In conclusion, the report will look at what efforts are being made at the EU level to promote statistical capabilities and political momentum to go beyond GDP.

© 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Keywords: beyond GDP; measuring progress; europe 2020 strategy; sustainable development

Available online at http://www.sciencedirect.com

© 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Open Access

Perea, Andrés (2017) „Forward induction reasoning and correct beliefs“- Journal of Economic Theory 169: 489–516:  www.elsevier.com/locate/jet

Abstract

All equilibrium concepts implicitly make a correct beliefs assumption, stating that a player believes that his opponents are correct about his first-order beliefs. In this paper we show that in many dynamic games of interest, this correct beliefs assumption may be incompatible with a very basic form of forward induction reasoning: the first two layers of extensive-form rationalizability (Pearce, 1984;Battigalli, 1997, epistemically characterized by Battigalli and Siniscalchi, 2002). Hence, forward induction reasoning naturally leads us away from equilibrium reasoning. In the second part we classify the games for which equilibrium reasoning is consistent with this type of forward induction reasoning, and find that this class is very small.

©2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Schmid-Schmidsfelden, Hubertus; Irina Potapova (2016) The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing: Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU.Wilfried Martens, Centre for European Studies:

https://www.google.ee/search?q=martensctre%20eu%20publications%20bear%20sheeps%20clothing%20russias%20government%20funded%20organisations

 StratCom COE (UR15.III 2017) StratCom laughs. In search of an analytical framework – ISBN: 978-9934-564-12-3: http://www.stratcomcoe.org/publications

Toomse, Rene (2015) Defending Estonia in peace and war. Retaining a small state near the aggressive neighbor by utilizing unconventional strategies; (supervisor: Jyrki Käkönen) School of Governance, Law and Society, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia: 245:

http://www.etera.ee/zoom/8725/view?page=1&p=separate&view=0,0,2067,2834

Thorsten Janus; Daniel Riera-Crichton (by 2015), “Economic shocks, the civil war and ethnicity” – the Journal of Development Economics 115:32-44:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleListURL&_method=list&_ArticleListID=-1175221378&_sort=r&_st=13&view=c&md5=d185b1e7697a1a536327b241f9e4dd3b&searchtype=a

Tongeren, Jan w.; van Ruud Picavet (2016) “Bayesian estimation approach in the will; integration of the compilation and analysis “ – In the EURO, Eurostat — the Review is a National Accounts and are accompanied by Indicators: 7-49.

The White Book (2005): Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes in 1940-1991 “(2005), the State Committee on the Investigation into the Repression Policy of Occupation, Tallinn, Estonia: the Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers: 171:

http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

and/or

http://www.riigikogu.ee/public/Riigikogu/TheWhiteBook

NB: Kogumikus puudub okupatsioonide tõttu tekitatud rahvuslike inimressursside kaotuste rahaline hinnang praeguses mõistes, piirdutakse ainult inimtegevuse turumajanduslike GDP kaotustega ligikaude 0,2th euro ringis.

 P.S. 13.X: Rahvusliku sotsiaalkapitali mõõtmisest:

Hello Ylo, here are personalized recommendations based on your latest signed in ScienceDirect activity.

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Vardarlıer, Pelin (2016) “Strategic approach to human resources management during Chrisis“ – Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, Volume 235, 24 November 2016, Pages 463-472.

 Abstract

Human Resources Management is one of the most important units of modern firms and organizations. It gains even more importance in times of crises, because it makes up an important dimension of crisis management. It is well known that human resources policies have a great influence on people; therefore, those polices are to bring about humanistic consequences. In this study, possible effects of always looming crises and ways to avoid or cope with those crises have been examined and presented to readers. The study mainly focuses on the human resources strategies aspect of management at managing crises; and, it compares classical and modern ways to handle the effects of crises on human capital.

© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Keywords: Human resources management; Crisis management; Human resources strategies.

P.S.: Rahvuslike kriiside ja katasroofide perioodil nii inimressursside kui ka rahvusliku sotsiaal- ning institutsionaal-kapitali kaotuste hindamiseks ingredientide endogeensed optimumhinnangud rahvusliku  jätkusuutlikkuse strateegiate disainimiseks on standardsed (vt Osundusi mis siiski näitavad et sotsiaalkapitali hindamisel on paralleelsel kastusel mitmeid meetodeid). Kahjuks sellest sotsiaal-küberneetilisest akadeemilisest maksiimist jäävad reaalpoliitikad kaugele maha eeskätt nii suurest teaduslagedusest ning riiklike statistikate vaegusest/aeglusest (nt Eestis puudub siiani ametlik statistika elanike arvu kohta !1941-1948) – kui ka parteide- ja polaarsete etniliste kohortide ja rahvusvaheliste rühmituste antagonismi kohta: suurendades nii kodusõdade kui ka teiste inimpõhiste katastroofide tõenäosusi ning vastavaid änge  – eriti strateegiliste kommunikatsioonibandede õhutamisel – nendest kõigist vaegustest ei tohi mööda vaadata – sh eriti rahvuslike demograafiliste struktuuride vägivaldse moonutamisega seonduvatest (vt Osundusi ning mõningaid esmalähenduslikke detailiseeringuid leiab lisaks – https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2016/11/  ). 

LISA: Jaak Uibu (29.IX 17) „Eesti rahvastikupoliitika kavand“

  1. MÕISTED:

Rahvastikupoliitika  on  riigi  sihiteadlik tegevus  rahvaarvu, selle demograafilise koosseisu ja regionaalse  paiknemise mõjutamisel. Selle alla kuulub  alla regionaalpoliitika, mille eesmärk on tagada piirkondlik areng.                                                                               

Rahvastikukriisi all mõistetakse rahvastiku demograafilist seisundit, mida iseloomustab sisemise taastepotentsiaali puudumine ja rahvastiku vananemine. Pikemas perspektiivis toob kriis kaasa (on juba toonud)  tööjõupuuduse ning töötajate suurema maksukoormuse, mida saab leevendada ainult tööjõu massilise impordiga. Sotsiaalteadlaste hinnangul saavutatakse nii küll lühiajaline tööjõuprobleemi leevenemine, kuid hiljem sünnib sellest tõsiseid pikaajalisi probleeme. Väikeste etnoste puhul kaasneb rahvaarvu vähenemine sellisel määral, et see ohustab ühe rahva etnose kultuuri jätkusuutlikkust. Eesti ja eestlaste kriitilist olukorda on vastava mõiste abil iseloomustatud 1990ndate algusest.

Rahvastikuseminaride idee on olemuselt innovaatiline  – lisaks ministeeriumi töös vajalikule   asjatundlikkusele  omandab paar inimest selle asutuse rahvastikuseminari käigus pädevuse ka rahvastikuküsimustes.  Seda saab  ministeerium edaspidi kasutada. Seminar käib koos paar  korda  kuus. Lihtsalt mõne ministeeriumi põhimäärus ei  saa olla takistuseks, sest EV põhiseadus   on õigusjõult alati kaalukam. Õppematerjalid on meil vähemal määral hetkel olemas ja  seminar toimub inimeste  tööajast.  Seminaris välja töötatud ettepanekud saadetakse edasi Peaministri rahvastikubüroole ja  Riigikogule. Rahvastikuseminari liikmete ettevalmistamiseks saab kasutada Riigikantselei Tippjuhtide kompetentsi keskuse  teenuseid.

(NB tõepoolest originaalne idee – sest traditsiooniliselt on mitmete parlamentide koosseisus statsionaarsed (mitte valimistega ideoloogis subjektiivselt ümbervahetatavad) teadusüksused :==) – üe)

Kultuur on kogu inimtegevuse otsene tulemus ja  mälu.  Kultuurist rääkides mõeldakse enamasti  selle all ikka mingit kultuurivaldkonna osa.  Kultuur on samas   ka protsess, mille käigus luuakse uusi väärtusi, kuid varasemalt kogutud varamu võib ka taastamatult  kaotsi minna. Eriti juhul, kui uue kultuuri väärtuste lisamisel ei osata/ei taheta vanu hoida. Kultuuri osa on ka rahvuse säilitamise teooria, metodoloogia ja metoodika. Euroopa tsivilisatsioon tugineb kristlikule kultuurile ja kristlikele väärtustele. (NB Lissaboni agenda järgi tugineb teaduspõhisusele – tõsiselt seda lauset tuleks vähemalt Presidendil korrigeerida – üe)

(NB kas ei võiks täiendada: „rahvuslik fertiilsus“, „rahvuslik lastetus“, „intensiivne ja ekstensiivne emadus ning nende määrad“ jne vaatamata sellele et meil regulaarne statistika näib puuduvat – “rahvusliku fertiilsuse stimuleerimise sotsiaal-küberneetilised mehhanismid (ainelised ning moraalsed” (nt Raute, okt 2017) jne – üe)

  1. PRINTSIIBID:

Inimene on looduse osa, sellest tuleneb  kohustus olla looduse hoidja, mitte isand (NB ??? mis teooria või usund see on – üe).  Hoida ja hoiatada on vaja  inimesi kurjuse ning  hääbumise eest. Oluline on see  eriti väikerahva puhul. (NB eriti oluline on hoida ja hoiatada inimesi katastroofide tingimustes – seega eriti hübriidsõja tingimustes. Zack (2009) järgi nendes tingimustes eetika nõuab nii rahva hoiatamist kui ka ettevalmistumist katastroofi võimaliku realiseerumistõenäosuse vähendamiseks ning tagajärgede leevendamiseks – sh eelmiste kogemuste täiendavat uurimist: antud juhul nt eriti Maarjamaa elanikkonna kaotusi Teises Vabadussõjas (vt eeskätt Lindmäe, 1999-2015) – ja sellest tulenevat eetost – üe)

EV Põhiseaduse preambula:   Kõikumatus usus ja vankumatus tahtes kindlustada   ja arendada riiki,  … mis peab tagama eesti rahvuse, keele ja kultuuri säilimise läbi aegade …   Põhiseaduse kommenteeritud väljaande (2017) preambulat käsitleva peatüki viimane lause   sätestab  1992.a. põhiseaduse preambula kohta : „Selgepiirilise formuleeringu sai   Eesti Vabariigi põhieesmärk: tagada eesti rahvuse ja kultuuri säilimine läbi aegade“. (NB ja läbi katastroofide (Soomre, 2015) – üe)

Kalev Katuse direktiiv – ühiskonna arengut tuleb käsitleda rahvastikukeskseltEesti edu mõõdetakse rahvastikuga. (NB peaks olema: „eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse indikaatoritega“ – üe)

Riigikogul ja Valitsusel ei ole mandaati alustada ressursimahukate suurrajatistega enne, kui rahvastiku kahanemine on peatatud.  (NB mis hägusloogika see selline on ja kuskohalt pärit –  taevane arm: kui just mõni suurrajatis (nt RB) aitab agressorit oluliselt täiendavalt heidutada? – üe)

 Rahvastikupoliitika on koordineeriva ülesandega ja ülimuslik teiste poliitikate suhtes; ta  on  pikaajaline ja erakonnaülene, teised poliitikad peaksid arvestama rahvastikupoliitiliste eesmärkidega.   (NB peaks olema erakonnaülene küll – aga mitmedki meie raskekaalu politikaanid tegelevad vabalt eestlusvaenulikult – selline tegevus tuleks kriminaliseerida ka Riigikogus – üe)                                                      .

Rahvastikukriis puudutab kogu elanikkonda ja  selle vastu tuleb rakendada kogu riigi ja elanikkonna potentsiaali,  iga inimene osaleb oma võimalustes. (NB kõigi positiivsete eestimeelsete jõudude poolt – üe)                                                                               .

  1. MEETODID

Üksikmeetmetega kriisi vastu ei saa. Eri valdkondade rahvastikuseminarides tuleb selgitada välja need asjaolud (näiteks ülereguleeritud majandus), mis soodustavad  või takistavad omarahvastiku taastet.  Ettepanekute esitamiseks ja ärakuulamiseks/arvestamiseks tuleb luua tõhusamad kanalid.                                                                                                 Rahvastikupoliitilised meetmed (vt punkt E.)  ja vastutus nende kasutamisel lepitakse kokku riigiasutuste vahel vastavalt nende profiilile. Mitmed meetmed on juba paigas, näit. laste ja perepoliitika on sotsiaalministeeriumi pädevuses.

Tänane seis on, et elanikkonna juurdekasvu eest  ei vastuta põhimääruste järgi mitte ükski konkreetne asutus, kuigi rahvastiku suurendamist  reklaamitakse avalikkusele  iga  ministeeriumi prioriteedina.

Eesti Vabariigi  põhieesmärgi täitmisel (tagada eesti rahvuse ja kultuuri säilimine läbi aegade)  on peamine  rahvastikupoliitiline  vastutus peaministri funktsioonil. (NB mitmetes tsiviliseerite riikides vist siiski eeskätt Tervishoiu Ministeeriumi pädevuses – üe)                                                           Teave rahvastikuküsimustes on avalik, infovahetus organisatsioonilises võrgus  kollegiaalne. (NB aga sotsiaalvõrgustikus? – üe)

  1. ORGANISATSIOONILINE STRUKTUUR (on veel kujunemisjärgus (NB peaasi et rahastamise küsimused oleks kindlalt paigas sest pragune käsitlus näib lõhnavat vaesrahastamise järgi? – üe))

Eesti rahvastiku toetusrühm Riigikogus (loodud 2015 Riigikogu liikme Rein Ratase  eestvõtul  ja Toompea Haridusseminari soovitusel).                                                                                Rahvastikukriisi komisjon Riigikogus (2017).                                                                               Peaministri  nõunik (Peaministri rahvastikubüroo)   ja juurdekutsutavad  rahvastikueksperdid. Rahvastikuseminarid  valitsusasutustes  ja ülikoolides.

  1. RAHVASTIKUPOLIITILISED MEETMED (loetelu ei ole lõplik – neid tuleb käsitleda pigem   näidetena;   ei ole järjekorrastatud, sageli  kattuvad)

1) Üldmeetmed,  mida vähemalt mõningal määral juba rakendatakse

Rahvatervise ja vaimse heaolu meetmed;                                                  Rahvastikukriisi põhjuste kindlakstegemine  [1) või 2) ?];    (NB juba teada nt et palgavaesus, suur majanduslik ebavõrdsus, väheefektiivsed rahvusliku fertiilsuse simuleerimise sotsiaal-küberneetilised mehhanismid (Raute, 2017) ning vastava regulaarse statistika vaegus – teaduskauge disfunktsionaalne üldine sotsiaal-küberneetiline mehhanism mis võimaldab/ärgitab kodumaisest majandusest maksustamata kasumeid sohiga piiritaha slikerdada, hübriidsõja ängid ja eriti terroristlik trollimine kremlistide poolt ning seega rahvusliku teadmusruumi hägustamine hirmutamisega (vt Chichilnisky) jne – üe)                                                              Organisatsioonilise struktuuri paikapanek ja arendus;

Rahvastikukesksuse tähtsustamine ühiskonnas;                                       Vaesuse vähendamine; (NB kohortide majandusliku ebavõrdsuse leevendamine nii sissetulekute kui varade osas – muide kodumajapidamise varade regulaarne statistika Eestis jällegi puudub – üe)

Laste-  ja perepoliitilised meetmed;

Rände optimeerimine, kõrgtehnoloogia  kasutamine   töökäte puudujäägi korvamisel;                                                                                   Toimiv regionaalpoliitika, regionaalsed maksuerisused     [1) või 2) ? (NB piirkondliku majandusliku ebavõrdsuse süvenemine tuleb viivitamatult teaduspõhiselt peatada ilma igasuguse uurimiseta – üe)];                                                                                                                  Meedia ümberhäälestus rahvastikupoliitika vajaduste arvestamiseks. (NB tuleb populismi- ja uskumus- ja nõidus-põhisuselt pöörata teaduspõhiseks – üe)

2) Spetsiifilised ja innovaatilised meetmed                                                                             

Eesti rahvastikutaaste regionaalprogramm ERARE  (valminud 2005.a.);                                                                                                          Esmassünnitajate keskmise vanuse langetamine;

Abortide  edasine vähendamine;                                                                  Abielulisuse tähtsustamine;   (NB fertiilse abielulisuse – üe)

LGBT tööjõu maksustamine;                                                                        Abinõud sündide edasilükkamise vastu;

Sotsiaalse õigluse nimel vanemahüvitise ülemmäära vähendamine 1-1,5 keskmise palgani;

Seadusaktide demograafilise  mõju hindamisel    demograafidelt  arvamuste tellimine;

Valglinnastumise  pidurdamine;

Poliitilise demograafia kujundamine;

Rahvas  vajab, et poliitikud ja  riigimehed näitaksid  perekonnaelus isiklikku eeskuju;  Riikliku vastutuse defineerimine ja sanktsioonide määratlemine;

Inimõiguste   ja –kohustuste tasakaalu saavutamine.

Koost. Jaak Uibu, 29.09.2017

October 9, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Kiirhinnang 21.IX 17

Kiri:  populaarne Bayes’lik RB kulutuste kriitilise lae osaline kiirpiirhinnang hübriidsõja eesrinde tingimustes

Postulaadid et (a) RB Projekt vähendab parajasti Bayes’i tõenäosust et hübriidsõda siin (Toomse, 2015) pöördub lisaks küberneetilisele ja sanktsioonilisele veel kineetiliseks – vähendab ca 5%: seega Bayes’likult/subjektiivselt oletades (2;3) protsendi punkti võrra (b) et kineetiline rünnak või etniline kodusõda oleks põliselanikkonnale katastroofiline: hukkuks (10;20)% (c) et rahvuslikult (eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse stabiilsuse seisukohalt) meie põliselaniku koguväärtuse (inim- ja sotsiaal-kapital paušaalselt) statistiline hinnang keskmiselt oleks: €10M (esmalähenduses: Zack ja Chichilnisky järgi vt viiteid – see ei ole kitsalt turumajanduslik inimkapitali hinnang – vaid eeskätt rahvusliku sotsiaalse (sh sigivuse) inimvara kui jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse peamise ressursi mahu hinnang nii statistiliselt kui ka eksperimentaalselt ning seda läheneva rahvusliku katastroofi hirmus).

Oletused et (A) katastroofi tagajärjel põliselanikkonna kaotuse Bayes’lik koguväärtuse hinnang oleks: €(1;2)tn (B) RB Projekt vähendaks seda €(20;60)B võrra: seega Projekti kogukulutused (rajamine+kahjumid) peavad alla jääma tinglikult (sõltuvalt olukordade edasisest kujunemisest) vahemikku 20 ja 60 miljardi euro mahus (C) selle informaalse käsitluse anomaalsus formaalsetest standard käsitlustest seisneb eeskätt selles et rahvusliku heaolu ootuste klassikalised teooriad/mudelid monotoonsete funktsioonide põhjal ei suuda adekvaatselt hinnata inimväärtust katastroofi ootuse tingimustes – õigemini – nendes mitte Bayes’likes teooriates toimub varjatult üldse katastroofide (Mustade Luikede) kui üliharva esinevate sündmuste elimineerimine – ja seega koondub tähelpanu marginaalsetele probleemidele nagu värske õhu hind jne (C) Ilmselt nii hübriidsõja (sh ka sanktsioonide dimensioonis – Ennuste, 2014) kui ka võimalike katastroofide puhul adekvaatsed mudelid peavad võimaldama kirjeldada arengu katkevust ning seoses sellega informaalsete endogeensete hindade hüppelisi tõuse seoses eksogeensete struktuursete kitsenduste (ka nn kriitiliste piiride (Ennuste&Rajasalu) järskudele muutustele).

Kõik piisavad osundused ning argumendid leiate:

https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/do-not-quote-18-xi-16/

Eriti olulised:

Ahlerup, Pelle; Gustav Hansson (2011) „Nationalism and government effectiveness“ – Journal of Comparative Economics Volume 39, Issue 3, September 2011, Pages 431–451.

A b s t r a c t

Nation-building is believed to have a positive influence on economic and political outcomes, especially in countries with ethnically fragmented populations. Yet nationalism, an indicator of successful nation-building, has been empirically linked to protectionism and intolerance, which suggests that dismal performance is a more likely outcome. This paper empirically identifies an inverted U-shaped relationship between nationalism and government effectiveness. The results suggest that the level of nationalism in the population is higher than optimal in most countries. It is further shown that nationalism may mitigate the negative effects of ethnic heterogeneity in former colonies. We find no clear linkages between nationalism and trade openness. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bosker, Maarten; Joppe de Ree (2014)) „Ethnicity and the spread of civil war“- Journal of Development Economics, Volume 108: 206-221.

Civil wars tend to cluster in particular areas of the world. We provide empirical evidence that cross-border conflict spillovers are an important factor in explaining this pattern. Moreover, we show that ethnicity plays a key role in conditioning the spread of civil wars. Only ethnic wars tend to spill over, and ethnic wars are more likely to spill over along ethnic lines. The latter result is robust to the inclusion of a host of (other) crossborder characteristics, such as geographical factors and trade intensity. We estimate that a neighboring ethnic civil war increases the risk of an outbreak of ethnic civil war on the home territory by 4–6% points.

© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chanel, Oliver; Graciela Chichilnisky (2013) „Valuing life: Experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events“ – Ecological Economics 85: 198–205: doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.03.004

Chichilnisky, Graciela; Kristen A. Sheeran (2013) „A changing climate in economics: Responses to crisis“ –  Ecological Economics, Volume 85: 143-144.

 

„ … This article (Chanel&Chichilnisky, 2013 – üe) argues that global environmental phenomena like climate change, major extinction events or flutype pandemics can have catastrophic consequences, but catastrophes are either ignored or underestimated in standard economic decision theory under uncertainty that emerged from the theoretical structure introduced by Von Neumann and Morgenstern. By assessing the outcomes involved and their probabilities – especially those concerning human life – the standard economic theory of choice under uncertainty is supposed to yield optimal decisions. However, the widely used expected utility theory values life in terms of the low probability of death someone would be willing to accept in order to receive extra payment. Common sense and experimental evidence refute this way of valuing life. This article provides a theoretical alternative tested through experimental evidence. It reports on people’s unwillingness to accept a low probability of death that is contrary to expected utility predictions. The article is based on new axioms of choice under uncertainty defined by Chichilnisky (1996, 2009), and it focuses on a new axiom that extends those of Von Neumann and Morgenstern allowing extreme responses to extreme events, fully characterizing the choice criteria that these new axioms imply. The authors show that the implied decision criteria are a combination of expected utility

with extreme responses, and they demonstrate experimentally that

these criteria – which are new in the literature – are more consistent

with experimental observations about how humans make decisions

when faced with catastrophic events such as death. From this emerges a new way to value life, using new experimental evidence as well as new theoretical foundations. …“

Chichilnisky, Graciela  (2010) „The foundations of statistics with black swans“ –

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2009.09.007Get rights and content

Abstract

We extend the foundation of statistics to integrate rare events that are potentially catastrophic, called black swans.These include natural hazards, regime change in complex systems, market crashes, catastrophic climate change and major episodes of species extinction. Classic statistics and physics treat such events as ‘outliers’ and often disregard them. We propose a new axiomatization of subjective probability requiring equal treatment for rare and frequent events, and characterize the likelihoods or subjective probabilities that the axioms imply. These coincide with countably additive measures and yield normal distributions when the sample has no black swans. When the sample includes black swans, the new likelihoods are represented by a combination of countable and finitely additive measures with both parts present. The axioms were introduced in Chichilnisky (2000, 2002); they extend the axiomatic foundations of Savage (1954)Villegas (1964) and Arrow (1971) and they are valid for bounded and unbounded samples (Chichilnisky, 1996b). The finitely additive measures assign more weight to rare events than do standard distributions and in that sense explain the persistent observation of power laws and ‘heavy tails’ that eludes classic theory.

Chichilnisky, Graciela (2009) „The topology of fear“ – Journal of Mathematical Economics 45:  807–816.

A b s t r a c t

For many years experimental observations have raised questions about the rationality of economic agents—for example, the Allais Paradox or the Equity Premium Puzzle. The probleem is a narrow notion of rationality that disregards fear. This article extends the notion of rationality with new axioms of choice under uncertainty and the decision criteria they imply (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). In the absence of catastrophes, the old and the newapproach coincide, and both lead to standard expected utility. A sharp difference emerges when facing rare events with important consequences, or catastrophes. Theorem 1 establishes that a classic axiom of choice under uncertainty – Arrow’s Monotone Continuity axiom, or its relatives introduced by DeGroot, Villegas, Hernstein and Milnor – postulate rational behavior that is ‘insensitive’ to rare events as defined in (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). Theorem 2 replaces this axiom with another that allows extreme responses to extreme events, and characterizes the implied decision criteria as a combination of expected utility with extremal responses. Theorems 1 and 2 offer a new understanding of rationality consistent with previously unexplained observations about decisions involving rare and catastrophic events, decisions involving fear, the Equity Premium Puzzle, ‘jump diffusion’ processes and ‘heavy tails’, and it agrees with (Debreu, G., 1953. Valuation equilibrium and Pareto optimum. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 40, 588–592) formulation of market behavior and his proof of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand theorem.

© 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

le Carrè, John (2017 Sept 7) A Legasy of Spies. Kindle

Interweaving past with present so that each may tell its own intense story, John le Carré has spun a single plot as ingenious and thrilling as the two predecessors on which it looks back: The Spy Who Came in from the Cold and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. In a story resonating with tension, humor and moral ambivalence, le Carré and his narrator Peter Guillam present the reader with a legacy of unforgettable characters old and new…

Clinton, Hillary Rodham (2017 12.IX) What Happened. Kindle Edition.

Amazon: “ … She lays out how the 2016 election was marked by an unprecedented assault on our democracy by a foreign adversary (Sic! üe). By analyzing the evidence and connecting the dots, Hillary shows just how dangerous the forces are that shaped the outcome, and why Americans need to understand them to protect our values and our democracy in the future. … “

NB: kübersõda infomanipuleerimisega kahjustab rahvuslikku sotsiaalkapitali nii rahvusliku teadmusruumi hägustamisega kui ka rahvuslike väärtuste moonutamisega

Ennuste,Ü. (2014) “Towards Special Methodological Problems of Macro-Optimal Sociocybernetic International Economic Sanctioning Coordination Modelling: Introductory Remarks oPreliminary Postulates and Conjectures.” – Baltic Journal of European Studies Tallinn University of Technology (ISSN 2228-0588), Vol. 4, No. 2 (17), 150-158:

http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT

Ennuste, Ü. and Rajasalu, T. (2002) „Critical Probability of the EU Eastern Enlargement Project’s Institutional Failure: Aspects of Calibrated Economic Impacts of the Failure.“  In: Aksel Kirch and Juhan Sillaste (eds.) Monitoring Preparations of Transition Countries for EU-Accession. 4th International Conference 4-6 October, 2002 Pärnu, Estonia, The Institute for European Studies, Tallinn, 212-227:

http://www.ies.ee/iesp/ennuste.pdf ,

Kissinger, Henry (2014) „World Order“ Allen Lane: 420

Analüüsib maailma poliit-institutsionaalseid disaine ning vastavaid kaasuseid – ei jäta märkimata ka meie 2007 aasta venepronksmäsu aegset venevalitsuse poolest diversioonilist küberrünnakut meie e-riigi vastu kui õppetundi vt:

Index lk 408 – Estonia, Russian cyberattac on, 345.

Tõsi – meie ITi mehed näivad sageli hindavat et see rünnak ei vääri vast enam märkimist eriti e-valimiste eelselt sest toimus primitiivsel tehnilisel tasemel.

Nt Jaak Ennuste: „ … DoS rünnakud olid Pronksiöö ajal (mitte DNS, …). Aga … need rünnakud koormavad vaid mingi veebilehe või teenuse üle ja see muutub kättesaamatuks. Aga see rünnak ei muuda ega lisa hääletustulemusi. … Eestis on nii, et kui arvutiga mingi diversiooni pärast valida ei saa, siis lähed jaoskonda ja demokraatia töötab.“

Kuid Kissinger’i selle poliitiliselt tõesti kaaluka raamatu (vt nt*) kontekstis on tuumarelvastuse ajastul mistahes piiriülesed diversioonid teise riigi siseasjadesse globaalse riskiga ning lubamatud – seda eriti seoses – nagu Kissinger peatükis „Cyber Thechnology and World Order“ lk350 väidab – et – Internetiajastul kus valitseb teadete/säutsude välküleküllus ning terrorist-trollide manipulatsioonid jne – paratamatult nii rahvuste arukus/tarkus kui riskiteadmus kärbuvad ning kah võimurite subjektiivne kiskjalik/militaarne otsustusloogika ja moraal võivad hägustuda globaalriskiliselt mitte-kompromislikuks – kui lastakse … (vt raamatust vastavat pragmaatilist pt lk 371-375 ).

*) http://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/oct/01/world-order-by-henry-kissinger-review-account

„ … Kissinger was a key shaper of a world order that remained stable for a quarter century or more until our own post-cold war era. This urgently written book is a fine account of world order in the longue duree, and also a memorandum to future generations of policymakers that the next half-century will be no easier to manage than the most recent one.“

P.S.: vt kah http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/260e3168-b177-11e4-831b-00144feab7de.html#axzz3SGxYZuZu

P.S.: Nobelist Professor Kissinger (s 1923; Nobelist 1972) on olnud rahvusvaheliste tuumarelvakokkulepete pea-arhitekte – kuid ilmselt alates Putin’ist need kokkulepped enam ei pea ja seega ka Kissinger’i hinnangud selles monograafias totaalse tuumasõja puhkemise peaaegu 0-tõenäsusele ei pruugi enam paika pidada. Muide tänavu on Oxford university’s Future of Humanity Institute and the Global Challenges Foundation on välja tulnud apokalüptilise 0,005% hüpoteesiga (TF.com 13.II 15).

Lindmäe, Herbert (2015-1999) SUVESÕDA … 1941, Tartu, Estonia OÜ Greif: the 4825lk (sic! – IX Köidet).

Autor rõhutab Teise Vabadussõja tingimustes eriti isiku kangelaslikkuse ning patriotismi väärtust ning selle hindamist.

Memo to 27.16 XI: XI, of the European Parliament of 23 October 16 Report A8-2016-0317

This paragraph 6 requires the EU/28-s here, particularly from third countries targeted for terrorist propaganda and the improvement of preventive action against it, especially on the Web:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=TA&reference=P8-TA-2016-0440&language=ET&ring=A8-2016-0317

Naevdal, Eric (2016) „Catastrophes and ex post shadow prices — How the value of the last fish in a lake is infinity and why we should not care (much)“ – Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Volume 132, Part B, December 2016, Pages 153–160: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.04.021

Abstract

Catastrophic risk is currently a hotly debated topic. This paper contributes to this debate by showing two results. First, it is shown that for a certain class of optimal control problems, the derivative of the value function with respect to the initial state may approach infinity as the state variable goes to zero, even when the first-order partial derivatives of the integrand and transition functions are finite. In the process, it is shown that standard phase diagrams used in optimal control theory contain more information than generally recognized and that the value function itself may be easily illustrated in these diagrams. Second, we show that even if the value function has an infinite derivative at some point, it is not correct to avoid this point in finite time at almost any cost. The results are illustrated in a simple linear-quadratic fisheries model and proven for a more general class of growth functions.

Perea, Andrés (2017) „Forward induction reasoning and correct beliefs“- Journal of Economic Theory 169: 489–516:  www.elsevier.com/locate/jet

Abstract

All equilibrium concepts implicitly make a correct beliefs assumption, stating that a player believes that his opponents are correct about his first-order beliefs. In this paper we show that in many dynamic games of interest, this correct beliefs assumption may be incompatible with a very basic form of forward induction reasoning: the first two layers of extensive-form rationalizability (Pearce, 1984;Battigalli, 1997, epistemically characterized by Battigalli and Siniscalchi, 2002). Hence, forward induction reasoning naturally leads us away from equilibrium reasoning. In the second part we classify the games for which equilibrium reasoning is consistent with this type of forward induction reasoning, and find that this class is very small.

©2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Schmid-Schmidsfelden, Hubertus; Irina Potapova (2016) The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing: Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU.Wilfried Martens, Centre for European Studies:

https://www.google.ee/search?q=martensctre%20eu%20publications%20bear%20sheeps%20clothing%20russias%20government%20funded%20organisations

 StratCom COE (UR15.III 2017) StratCom laughs. In search of an analytical framework – ISBN: 978-9934-564-12-3: http://www.stratcomcoe.org/publications

Toomse, Rene (2015) Defending Estonia in peace and war. Retaining a small state near the aggressive neighbor by utilizing unconventional strategies; (supervisor: Jyrki Käkönen) School of Governance, Law and Society, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia: 245:

http://www.etera.ee/zoom/8725/view?page=1&p=separate&view=0,0,2067,2834

Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (by 2015), “Economic shocks, the civil war and ethnicity” – the Journal of Development Economics 115:32-44:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleListURL&_method=list&_ArticleListID=-1175221378&_sort=r&_st=13&view=c&md5=d185b1e7697a1a536327b241f9e4dd3b&searchtype=a

Tongeren, Jan w., van Ruud Picavet (2016) “Bayesian estimation approach in the will; integration of the compilation and analysis “ – In the EURO, Eurostat — the Review is a National Accounts and are accompanied by Indicators: 7-49.

Zack, Naomi (2009) Ethics for Disaster. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA):164, Kindle.
Ethics for Disaster addresses the moral aspects of hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, plane crashes, Avian Flu pandemics, and other disasters. Naomi Zack explores how these catastrophes illuminate the existing inequalities in society. By employing the moral systems of utilitarianism, deontology, and virtue ethics to analyze the consequences of recent natural disasters, Zack reveals the special plight of the poor, disabled, and infirm when tragedy strikes. Zack explores the political foundations of social contract theory and dignitarianism and invites readers to rethink the distinction between risk in normal times and risk in disaster. Using both real life and fictional examples, Zack forcefully argues for the preservation of normal moral principles in times of national crisis and emergency, stressing the moral obligation of both individuals and government in preparing for and responding to disaster (https://books.google.ee/books?isbn=0742564959  

NB: Tegemist on keskmiste hindadega – seega autor küll vihjab asjaolule et nt eliidi puhul on tegemist suuremate väärtustega – kuid ei erista nt positiivse ja negatiivse aktiivsusega tüüpe; muide Wiener (1948) juba homoöostaasi mudelites (sotiaalküberneetilistes tasakaalu mudelites mis sisaldavad ka sotsiaalseid mehhanisme) eristas nii sulisid kui ka lolle. Lindmäe (2015: lk538) rõhutab eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse kindlustamisel võitlejate kangelaslikkuse erilist väärtustamist.

The White Book (2005): Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes in 1940-1991 “(2005), the State Committee on the Investigation into the Repression Policy of Occupation, Tallinn, Estonia: the Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers: 171:

http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

and/or

http://www.riigikogu.ee/public/Riigikogu/TheWhiteBook

Vabandusi: nt taolised kirjad FT veergudel nõuavad tosinate asjatundjate allkirju – antud juhul on need asendatud (laiendatud) osundustega; Bayes’i printsiibi rakendamisest triviaalsetel juhtudel on tuhandeid võrguteavikuid – komplitseeritud probleemide puhul (nt inimese väärtus küberneetilises hübriidsõjas ning rahvusliku katastroofi lähenemise hirmus jne) on tänaseni hägus ning problemaatiline ja seda isegi Bayes’likult (vt nt Tongeren&Picavet, 2016).

LISA 1.X 17

Kuidas meil selle teadusasjaga ikka on – eriti arvestades hübriid-sotsiaal-küber-sõjas meie eesrindel olekut ning samuti mõne võimaliku rahvusliku katastroofi lähenemise ängides – kas meil ainult turumajanduslikud ainelised vidanad ongi kõik võimalikud teaduspõhised „Tooted“: (a) kas rahvuslikud Kultuurid, Eetosed, Sotsiaalkapitalid, Sotsiaal-Küberneetilised Institutsioonid ning Mehhanismid (nt maksusüsteemid) ongi puhtalt ainult populist-poliitikute matemaatikavabad spontaansed loomingud (b) muide teaduspublikatsioonide juurde lisavad teaduskirjastused parajasti mingeid „Mõjuindekseid“ – mis tähendus nendel võiks olla? (c) ja lõpuks rahvusliku Kogu Inimvara (sh kapitali) väärtus (mitte ainult kitsalt formaalses turumajanduslikus mõistes) – kas see ei olegi meil kuidagi põhjuslikult seostatav rahvusliku teadmusstruktuuri väärtusega ning seega vastavate investeeringute vaegintensiivsusega?

Sharvit, Keren (2014) „How conflict begets conflict: Activation of the ethos of conflict in times of distress in a society involved in an intractable conflict“ – Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 55: 252–261.

Abstract

The research addressed the possible association between distress and the Ethos of Conflict (EOC), a system of shared beliefs that characterizes societies involved in intractable conflicts. It is argued that the EOC may assist processes of copingwith distress and therefore will be activated in times of distress. Three studies were conducted with samples of Israeli Jews,who are involved in an intractable conflictwith the Palestinians. Studies 1a and 1b

demonstrated that conditions of high (vs. low) distress, either related or unrelated to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, increased EOC activation but not self-reported EOC adherence. Study 2 demonstrated that the activation of the EOC under distress facilitated processing of EOC-consistent information and hindered processing of EOC contradicting information. The findings are consistent with the notion that the EOC may play a role in doping with distress, but this association may pose a barrier to peaceful conflict resolution.

© 2014 Published by Elsevier Inc

Narang, Vipin; Caitlin Talmadge (2017) „Civil-military Pathologies and Defeat in War“:

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0022002716684627 (2.947 Impact Factor)

Abstract

This article uses an original data set, the Wartime Civil-military Relations Data Set, to test arguments about the causes of victory and defeat in war. Our analysis provides strong initial support for the notion that civil-military relations powerfully shape state prospects for victory and defeat. Specifically, states whose militaries have a significant internal role or whose regimes engage in coup-proofing appear to have a substantially lower probability of winning interstate wars, even when we account for the role of other important variables, including regime type and material capabilities. Crucially, our measures of civil-military relations include coup incidence but also move beyond it to detect more subtle indicators of civil-military relations. The resulting analysis should give us confidence in acknowledging the importance of nonmaterial variables in explaining war outcomes, while also paving the way for further research that can utilize and extend the data …

September 21, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

NB: 9.ix 2017

NB: Kas riskida e-valimistega või mitte – kitsendusel et Eesistumisel Valitsus ei lagune

Teaduslikult on selle e-valimiste riskiprobleemi* ratsionaalne (mitte-poliitiline või populistlik – kuid loomulikult poliitiliste kitsendustega) lahendamine üsana lihtne eeskätt nn moodsate katastroofi teooriate alusel mis hõlmavad mudelites nt ka Musta Luige (ID kaardi nõrkuse (MLID)) olulist tõenäosust** ja seega ka oota- ja vaata- lahendeid. Ülelihtsustatud kujul nt Bayes’i printsiibi*** alusel arvestades aposteriori tõenäose hindamisel meie peale 2014. ID kaardi nõrkuse parajasti hiljutist ilmsiks tulekut – kuid nt** alusel ilmselt taolisel lihtsustatud käsitlusel MLID probleem ekslikult elimineeritakse .

*) Ajalehed ja MLID

ttps://www.ft.com/content/874359dc-925b-11e7-a9e6-11d2f0ebb7f0 ja

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/debatten/estland-sicherheitsluecke-bei-elektronischen-personalausweisen-15186516.html

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/parteien-zeigen-im-internet-wahlkampf-wenig-mut-15168510.html

http://pluss.postimees.ee/4238025/vastasele-kasulik-risk-avalikustati-ajaga-voidu-joostes?_ga=2.140402865.308016313.1498803753-219461728.1498803748

**) Uurimused:

Akerlof, Georg; Robert Shiller (2015) Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, ISBN: 9781400873265 Princeton University Press, Princeton, NY and Kindle Edition: 280.

“Akerlof and Shiller extend the standard ‘market failure’ theory–which says that there is a potential role for government intervention when markets fail–by showing that markets fail not only because of the familiar reasons of externalities and unfair income distribution, but also because of the pervasive phenomenon of ‘phishing for phools’ (profit-seeking through manipulation and deception). They point the way to a new paradigm freed from the constraints of market failure theory, able to illuminate ‘control by capital’ (partly through phishing) and to prescribe for ‘control of capital’ (partly by techniques for limiting phishing suggested here).” – Robert H. Wade, London School of Economics.

Chanel, Oliver; Graciela Chichilnisky (2013) „Valuing life: Experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events“ – Ecological Economics 85: 198–205: doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.03.004

Chichilnisky, Graciela  (2010) „The foundations of statistics with black swans“ –

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2009.09.007Get rights and content

Abstract

We extend the foundation of statistics to integrate rare events that are potentially catastrophic, called black swans.These include natural hazards, regime change in complex systems, market crashes, catastrophic climate change and major episodes of species extinction. Classic statistics and physics treat such events as ‘outliers’ and often disregard them. We propose a new axiomatization of subjective probability requiring equal treatment for rare and frequent events, and characterize the likelihoods or subjective probabilities that the axioms imply. These coincide with countably additive measures and yield normal distributions when the sample has no black swans. When the sample includes black swans, the new likelihoods are represented by a combination of countable and finitely additive measures with both parts present. The axioms were introduced in Chichilnisky (2000, 2002); they extend the axiomatic foundations of Savage (1954)Villegas (1964) and Arrow (1971) and they are valid for bounded and unbounded samples (Chichilnisky, 1996b). The finitely additive measures assign more weight to rare events than do standard distributions and in that sense explain the persistent observation of power laws and ‘heavy tails’ that eludes classic theory.

Chichilnisky, Graciela (2009) „The topology of fear“ – Journal of Mathematical Economics 45:  807–816.

A b s t r a c t

For many years experimental observations have raised questions about the rationality of economic agents—for example, the Allais Paradox or the Equity Premium Puzzle. The probleem is a narrow notion of rationality that disregards fear. This article extends the notion of rationality with new axioms of choice under uncertainty and the decision criteria they imply (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). In the absence of catastrophes, the old and the newapproach coincide, and both lead to standard expected utility. A sharp difference emerges when facing rare events with important consequences, or catastrophes. Theorem 1 establishes that a classic axiom of choice under uncertainty – Arrow’s Monotone Continuity axiom, or its relatives introduced by DeGroot, Villegas, Hernstein and Milnor – postulate rational behavior that is ‘insensitive’ to rare events as defined in (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). Theorem 2 replaces this axiom with another that allows extreme responses to extreme events, and characterizes the implied decision criteria as a combination of expected utility with extremal responses. Theorems 1 and 2 offer a new understanding of rationality consistent with previously unexplained observations about decisions involving rare and catastrophic events, decisions involving fear, the Equity Premium Puzzle, ‘jump diffusion’ processes and ‘heavy tails’, and it agrees with (Debreu, G., 1953. Valuation equilibrium and Pareto optimum. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 40, 588–592) formulation of market behavior and his proof of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand theorem.

© 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

le Carrè, John (2017 Sept 7) A Legasy of Spies. Kindle

Interweaving past with present so that each may tell its own intense story, John le Carré has spun a single plot as ingenious and thrilling as the two predecessors on which it looks back: The Spy Who Came in from the Cold and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. In a story resonating with tension, humor and moral ambivalence, le Carré and his narrator Peter Guillam present the reader with a legacy of unforgettable characters old and new..

Ennuste,Ü. (2014) “Towards Special Methodological Problems of Macro-Optimal Sociocybernetic International Economic Sanctioning Coordination Modelling: Introductory Remarks oPreliminary Postulates and Conjectures.” – Baltic Journal of European Studies Tallinn University of Technology (ISSN 2228-0588), Vol. 4, No. 2 (17), 150-158:

http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT

Ennuste, Ü. and Rajasalu, T. (2002) „Critical Probability of the EU Eastern Enlargement Project’s Institutional Failure: Aspects of Calibrated Economic Impacts of the Failure.“  In: Aksel Kirch and Juhan Sillaste (eds.) Monitoring Preparations of Transition Countries for EU-Accession. 4th International Conference 4-6 October, 2002 Pärnu, Estonia, The Institute for European Studies, Tallinn, 212-227: http://www.ies.ee/iesp/ennuste.pdf

Perea, Andrés (2017) „Forward induction reasoning and correct beliefs“- Journal of Economic Theory 169: 489–516:  www.elsevier.com/locate/jet

Abstract

All equilibrium concepts implicitly make a correct beliefs assumption, stating that a player believes that his opponents are correct about his first-order beliefs. In this paper we show that in many dynamic games of interest, this correct beliefs assumption may be incompatible with a very basic form of forward induction reasoning: the first two layers of extensive-form rationalizability (Pearce, 1984;Battigalli, 1997, epistemically characterized by Battigalli and Siniscalchi, 2002). Hence, forward induction reasoning naturally leads us away from equilibrium reasoning. In the second part we classify the games for which equilibrium reasoning is consistent with this type of forward induction reasoning, and find that this class is very small.

©2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

 

***) ENE Köide 1 (1985)**** lk488: e.k ilmselt esimest korda üldteaduslikus teatmeteoses on Bayes’i valem avaldatud (lihtsustatud kujul ja märkusega et tegu on „inglise matemaatikuga“ 1702-61 – tegelikult sovjeti okupatsiooni ajal tuli varjata et tegemist oli ikkagi eeskätt anglikaani kirikutegelasega)

****) Mitmesugust:

PM elu24 6.IX 2017 vt fotot kuidas meie theadusmin ENE/EE 10 Köidete rahvuslikku Varumit  prügiurni „salvestas“: vt LISA.

PS 8.IX: (a) Kõigepealt täpsustada tuleks et kui suure tõenäosusega võib tegemist olla vaenuliku strateegilise kommunikatsiooni manipulatsiooniga (vt nt Akerlof&Shiller, 2015) ja reeturite (le Carrè, 2017) igat masti ja kaliibrit negatiivse aktiivsusega – sest ära ei tohi unustada et oleme parajasti hübriidsõja sanktsioonide sektoris mitmes dimensioonis eesrindel (Ennuste, 2014) – eriti ka ideoloogia ning küberrindel – ja seega eriti sattuda  manipuleeritud tasakaalu (Perea, 2017)  (b) seega on mängus arvukalt kiskjalikke agente/tüüpe kes püüavad meie institutsionaalseid küberneetilisi nõrkuseid ära kasutada külvates meie rahvuslikku teadmusruumi hägusust ning katastroofi hirmu mida traditsioonilised heaoluteooriad ei pruugi adekvaatselt käsitleda (vt Chichlinski, 2009) ja  eriti kompetentse  le Carrè (2017) jne tekstidest) ja seega ka meie tähelpanu kõrvale juhtida meie rahvuslike sotsiaal-küberneetiliste mitmete rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse seisukohalt eksistentsiaalsete mehhanismide teaduslagedast disunktsionaalsusest ning ka sellest et e-valimistel on veel muid riske peale ID nõrkuste ning meil on seega tegelikult MLID puhul tõenäosuse täiendava suurenemise risk sattuda võltstasakaalu lõksu (Perea, 2017)  (c) nt kuigi meil II kv 2017 majandusaktiivsuse juurdekasvu määr oli pealiskaudselt OK: GDP 5,2% (Eurostat 8.IX 17)  – ja mahuliselt p.c EL/28 keskmisele üsna lähedal – siis samas sügavamalt lähenemiselt näeme et rahvuslike ressursside kõlvatu väljalekkimine meie kodumaisest majandusest oli meil kahetsusväärselt mahukas – eriti haritud põliselanikest tööjõu väljarände (Eurostati järgi põliselanike positiivne efektiivsus on keskmiselt kõrgem kui immigrantidel) ning finantsressursside osas: eriti välismaale netolaenude siirdamisel (vt ESA Kogumajanduse II Kv statistika Tabelit) ja seega ka GDP potentsiaali kahandavalt – järelikult ka eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosust õõnestavalt.

PSPS 9.IX: Momendil on meil MLID kohta teada et mitte eriti usaldusväärsest nukatagusest institutsioonist teatati/õngitseti et eksisteerib teoreetiline katastroofiline e-valimiste risk – ning selle realiseerimine agressorite poolt oleks nendele ääretult kallis (vist Eesti näitel 60 miljardi euro ringis*) – mingeid usaldusväärseid andmeid vist veel ei ole ka MLID riski võimaliku realiseerumise tõenäosuse kohta. Samas on teada* et meil tehakse jõulisi pingutusi selle riski võimalike füüsiliste põhjuste kõrvaldamiseks. Samuti ei ole veel kuulda mingeid usaldusväärseid hinnanguid et kui suurte kahjudega ning milliste tõenäosustega (nii maineliste/moraalsete kui ainelistega/finantslistega  – ja – nii meie kohalike kui ka liidulistega) – tuleks arvestada e-valimiste tühistamisel.

Kokkuvõttes moodsa sotsiaal-küberneetilise stohhastilise optimeerimise rakursist võib suure tõenäosusega väita – et eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse seisukohalt ratsionaalne strateegia oleks adaptiivne – ehk ootame ja vaatame veel kuidas tõenäosed edaspidi kujunevad sest pragu need ei näi üldsegi mitte kriitilistena (Ennuste&Rajasalu, 2002) – ehk ootame ja vaatame lõpliku otsustusega niikaua kuni jõuame sillani (autor on täiesti teadlik et see ei ole ratsionaalne ei poliitoponentide ega agressoritele jne natsionaalselt negatiivsete tüüpidele ning euroliidu lõhestajatele jne).

 

LISA: Lihtsustatud Bayes’lik spämmi filtreering

Algoritmi***** alusel tähendagu: A – väidetav e-kiri vihjega – et ID turvaaugu olemasolu on Musta Luige kaliibris oht – on spämm aprioorse tõenäosusega 0,9 (***** alusel); X – e- kirjas on teatavad sõnad –           X( kuuekümne miljardi euro ringis, autoritel pole veel õigust turvaaugu olemasolu väite/hüpoteesi tõestust esitada, jne; nüüd Bayes’i lihtsustatud valemi järgi kus Pr on tõenäosuse operaator – on spämmi aposterioorse tõenäosuse väärtus:
    Pr(A/X)=Pr(X/A)Pr(A):Pr(X) –  ja – ekspertlikult kalibreeritult Pr(A/X)=0,9×0,8:0,75=0,96.
 
*****) https://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/
„ … Bayesian Spam Filtering

One clever application of Bayes’ Theorem is in spam filtering. We have

  • Event A: The message is spam.
  • Test X: The message contains certain words (X)

Plugged into a more readable formula (from Wikipedia):

Bayesian filtering allows us to predict the chance a message is really spam given the “test results” (the presence of certain words). Clearly, words like “viagra” have a higher chance of appearing in spam messages than in normal ones.

Spam filtering based on a blacklist is flawed — it’s too restrictive and false positives are too great. But Bayesian filtering gives us a middle ground — we use probabilities. As we analyze the words in a message, we can compute the chance it is spam (rather than making a yes/no decision). If a message has a 99.9% chance of being spam, it probably is. As the filter gets trained with more and more messages, it updates the probabilities that certain words lead to spam messages. Advanced Bayesian filters can examine multiple words in a row, as another data point.

Further Reading

There’s a lot being said about Bayes:

September 9, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Note 4.IX 17

This Note takes radom stock of some last publications released on theoretical insights from modern national sustainabilty socio-cybernetic toolskits

 

Gouveia, Valdiney V.; Taciano L. Milfont, Valeschka M. Guerra (2014)  „Functional theory of human values: Testing its content and structure hypotheses“ – Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 60: 41-47.

A b s t r a c t

A theoretical analysis of the functions values fulfill is described by focusing on two widely accepted value functions: values guide actions and express needs. The interplay between these two functions yields a three-by-two framework differentiating values according to their pursued goals (personal, central or social goals) or their expressed needs (survival or thriving needs). The three-by-two framework results in six subfunctions or basic values (structure hypothesis) assessed with specific marker values vorming the Basic Values Survey (content hypothesis). The present paper tests these theoretical hypotheses in a

large national sample of Brazilian physicians (N = 13,414). The results support both hypotheses and proovide further empirical evidence for the functional theory of values. Discussion centers on the theory as a refinement of existing value models due to its parsimonious and theoretically-driven approach, and its merit as an additional theoretical tool for understanding the structure of the value domain.

_ 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

Anna J. Wieczorek, Anna J. (2017) „Sustainability transitions in developing countries: Major insights and their implications for research and policy“- Environmental Science and Policy … :

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901117308092/pdfft?md5=356d4ddaa43abb991df16df4181cb015&pid=1-s2.0-S1462901117308092-main.pdf

Abstract

Sustainability transitions literature is a rapidly growing and influential field of research. It argues for a radical change of systems providing human needs. Being triggered by the negative implications of the Western post-war model of development, major transition frameworks such as multilevel perspective, strategic niche management or transition management have been widely used to clarify and motivate socio-technical transformations in mainly more economically developed world. Because of their sustainability appeal, however, transition perspectives began to be applied in developing countries. This paper takes stock of and systematises the theoretical insights from this application. Using systematic review method of 115 publications released in the last decade,

the paper discusses novel methodological and conceptual lessons around: experimentation and upscaling; stability, change and power; regime uniformity; contextual forces; path-dependence; transnational linkages; normatiive orientation and other aspects. Although the identified insights confirm the middle range character of the transition theory, they force some reflexivity and raise new research questions for both contexts. The paper also

identifies a few policy implication for international organisations, donors, governments and civil society organisations.

Bosker, Maarten; Joppe de Ree (2014)) „Ethnicity and the spread of civil war“- Journal of Development Economics, Volume 108: 206-221.

Civil wars tend to cluster in particular areas of the world. We provide empirical evidence that cross-border conflict spillovers are an important factor in explaining this pattern. Moreover, we show that ethnicity plays a key role in conditioning the spread of civil wars. Only ethnic wars tend to spill over, and ethnic wars are more likely to spill over along ethnic lines. The latter result is robust to the inclusion of a host of (other) crossborder characteristics, such as geographical factors and trade intensity. We estimate that a neighboring ethnic civil war increases the risk of an outbreak of ethnic civil war on the home territory by 4–6% points.

© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

 

Ahlerup, Pelle; Gustav Hansson (2011) „Nationalism and government effectiveness“ – Journal of Comparative Economics Volume 39, Issue 3, September 2011, Pages 431–451.

A b s t r a c t

Nation-building is believed to have a positive influence on economic and political outcomes, especially in countries with ethnically fragmented populations. Yet nationalism, an indicator of successful nation-building, has been empirically linked to protectionism and intolerance, which suggests that dismal performance is a more likely outcome. This paper empirically identifies an inverted U-shaped relationship between nationalism and government effectiveness. The results suggest that the level of nationalism in the population is higher than optimal in most countries. It is further shown that nationalism may mitigate the negative effects of ethnic heterogeneity in former colonies. We find no clear linkages between nationalism and trade openness. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Zack, Naomi (2009) Ethics for Disaster. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA):164, Kindle.
Ethics for Disaster addresses the moral aspects of hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, plane crashes, Avian Flu pandemics, and other disasters. Naomi Zack explores how these catastrophes illuminate the existing inequalities in society. By employing the moral systems of utilitarianism, deontology, and virtue ethics to analyze the consequences of recent natural disasters, Zack reveals the special plight of the poor, disabled, and infirm when tragedy strikes. Zack explores the political foundations of social contract theory and dignitarianism and invites readers to rethink the distinction between risk in normal times and risk in disaster. Using both real life and fictional examples, Zack forcefully argues for the preservation of normal moral principles in times of national crisis and emergency, stressing the moral obligation of both individuals and government in preparing for and responding to disaster (https://books.google.ee/books?isbn=0742564959 

 Akerlof, Georg; Robert Shiller (2015) Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, ISBN: 9781400873265 Princeton University Press, Princeton, NY and Kindle Edition: 280 pp.

“Akerlof and Shiller extend the standard ‘market failure’ theory–which says that there is a potential role for government intervention when markets fail–by showing that markets fail not only because of the familiar reasons of externalities and unfair income distribution, but also because of the pervasive phenomenon of ‘phishing for phools’ (profit-seeking through manipulation and deception). They point the way to a new paradigm freed from the constraints of market failure theory, able to illuminate ‘control by capital’ (partly through phishing) and to prescribe for ‘control of capital’ (partly by techniques for limiting phishing suggested here).” – Robert H. Wade, London School of Economics.

le Carrè, John (2017 Sept 7) A Legasy of Spies. Kindle

Interweaving past with present so that each may tell its own intense story, John le Carré has spun a single plot as ingenious and thrilling as the two predecessors on which it looks back: The Spy Who Came in from the Cold and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. In a story resonating with tension, humor and moral ambivalence, le Carré and his narrator Peter Guillam present the reader with a legacy of unforgettable characters old and new

Perea, Andrés (2017) „Forward induction reasoning and correct beliefs“- Journal ofEconomicTheory169: 489–516 http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jet

Abstract

All equilibrium concepts implicitly make a correct beliefs assumption, stating that a player believes that his opponents are correct about his first-order beliefs. In this paper we show that in many dy-namic games of interest, this correct beliefs assumption may be incompatible with a very basic form of forward induction reasoning: the first two layers of extensive-form rationalizability (Pearce, 1984;Battigalli, 1997, epistemically characterized by Battigalli and Siniscalchi, 2002). Hence, forward induction reasoning naturally leads us away from equilibrium reasoning. In the second part we classify the games for which equilibrium reasoning isconsistent with this type of forward induction reasoning, and find that this class is very small.

©2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Volker Nocke, Nicolas Schutz (2017) „Quasi-linear integrability“ –

Journal of Economic Theory, Volume 169: 603-628.

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