Ülo Ennuste Economics

papers and articles in wordpress

       Selected Estonian present key macro-economic indicators

(personal 1.IV 10 quality estimates in the EU context: blue – good, black –normal, red – bad (divergent); predictions in the hypothesis of the continuation of present economic policy and mechanisms)

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP
(% change)
EU CP Jan 2010 -3.6 -14.5 -2/2*  0/5 0/7 0/8
The Econ.3. IV 10     -3/1 1/5    
               
HICP inflation
(%)**
EU CP Jan 2010 10.6 0.2 0.4 1.9 2.3 2.7
The Econ. 3.IV 10     0.3↑***      
ÜE (inc house prices) 15-20          
Output gap
(% of potential GDP)
EU CP Jan 2009 6.2 -8.8 -8.4 -5.7 -3.1 -0.5
             
             
Gross external debt (% of GDP)    Bank of  Est./IMF ÜE   c 130 c 130   bad   bad   bad
             
             
At risk of the poverty rate total (%) and quintile indices  Eurostat (risk %) Eurostat (income index)

 ÜE (consumption index)

 

19↑ 

5,0?****

 

6,3

 

         
             
             
General government expenditure (% of GDP) EU CP Jan 2010 39.9 47.6 47.9 46.0 42.5 39.0
             
             
General government balance
(% of GDP)
EU CP Jan 2010 -2.8 -2.6 -2.2 -2.0 -1.0 0.2
             
             
Unemployment
(%)
The Econ. 25. III 10   16        
  Estonian CP I 2010 6 14 15 13 11 9
             
Foreign direct investments out of Estonia
(% of GDP)
Bank of Estonia 4 8        
ÜE     bad bad bad bad
             
Net national income(% of GDP) Eurostat 81 82         
ÜE     bad bad bad bad
             
Government gross debt
(% of GDP)
EU CP Jan 2010 4.6 7.8 10.1 13.0 14.2 14.3
             
             
  Notes:              
*Confidence intervals are mine estimates.**Real estate prices probably unstable in this all period (ÜE).***Compared to the previous.****? – seems manipulated (ÜE).
Comments:It seems that Sources are not giving any significant effect whatsoever to euro introduction.In this Table Net national income % and absolute value of the Output cap may first of all taken as indicators of the incompetence of  present economic policy > unbalanced tax system, unstable prices policies, unbalanced labour market, etc
 
 
Source: EU Commission Convergence programme (CP);The Economist; Eurostat, Bank of Estonia Statistics; Estonia CP MoF I 2010, IMF and estimates of mine (ÜE). Ülo Ennuste  ylo.ennuste@mail.ee
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April 1, 2010 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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