Ülo Ennuste Economics

papers and articles in wordpress

Teadmusmullist

Teadmus- ja finantsmullidest ning meie kriisist

 Kultuurileht „Sirp” 16.IV 10:

  „majandusmatemaatilised mudelid pole suutnud arvestada finantsmullide ja investorite emotsioonidega, majandusteadlased vaidlevad rohkem teooria, mitte aga praktiliste kriisis tegutsemise probleemide üle. …. Majandusteadlased ja analüütikud on kaotanud selle kriisiga oma usaldusväärsuses rohkem kui kunagi varem ning seda ka Eestis. ….”

 See on tüüpnäide vastutustundetust poliit-populistlikust teadust laimavast ja eesti sotsiaalmajanduslikku avalikku teadmusruumi risustavast infomullist.

 Tõepoolest:

 a)     laimamine esiteks selles mõttes et nt Martin ja Ventura 2010* järgi matemaatilised mudelid on „suutnud” finantsmulle arvestada juba üle poole sajandi Samuelson’i 1958-st alates (vt * viiteid)

b)    teiseks, eesti majandusteadlased pole selle kriisiga seoses oma usaldusväärsusest midagi kaotanud, kuid eesti avaliku sotsiaalmajandusliku teadmusruumi kvaliteet ning usaldusväärsus on küll seoses politikaanide ja vastutustundetu massimeedia demagoogiamullidega risustamise tõttu** suhteliselt tohutult kaotanud (eriti valimiskampaaniates välja lastavate infomullide tõttu***) ja seoses selle kaotusega on kriis meil oluliselt suhteliselt sügavam koos kümnete miljardite rahvusliku tulu mõttetute kaotustega, eeskätt inflatsioonimulli viljelemisest (võimkonna poolt) tingitud katastroofilise töötusega, välisvõlaga ning rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse potentsiaali õõnestamisega.

 ___________________________________________________________

 *Theoretical notes on bubbles and the current crisis.

Alberto Martin and Jaume Ventura (January 25, 2010, vt nt Google)

 Abstract

We explore a view of the crisis as the result of a shock to investor sentiment that led to the

collapse of a bubble or pyramid scheme in asset markets. We embed this view in a standard model

of the financial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we focus

on asset price fluctuations, the international propagation of shocks and the role of fiscal policy.

We dedicate this research to the memory of Paul Samuelson, the best economist of the twentieth century, and

the first one to understand that pyramid schemes ….

 References

Bernanke, B. and M. Gertler, 1989, Agency Costs, NetWorth and Business Fluctuations, American

Economic Review 79, 14-31.

Caballero, R. and A. Krishnamurthy, 2006, Bubbles and Capital Flow Volatility: Causes and Risk

Management, Journal of Monetary Economics 53(1), 33-53.

Farhi, E. and J. Tirole, 2009, Bubbly Liquidity, working paper, Harvard.

Gertler, M. and N. Kiyotaki, 2009, Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy, working paper,

NYU.

Kiyotaki, N., and J. Moore, 1997, Credit Cycles, Journal of Political Economy 105, 211-248.

Kraay, A., and J. Ventura, 2007, The Dot-Com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and the US Current

Account, in G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, R. Clarida (eds.), The

University of Chicago.

LeRoy, S., 2004, Rational Exhuberance, Journal of Economic Literature 42, 783-804.

Martin, A. and J. Ventura, 2010, Economic Growth with Bubbles, mimeo, CREI.

Samuelson, P., 1958, An Exact Consumption-loan Model of Interest with or without the Social

Contrivance of Money, Journal of Political Economy 66, 467-482.

Tirole, J., 1985, Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations, Econometrica 53 (6), 1499-1528.

28.

 ** Ennuste, Ü. 2008. Synthetic Conceptions of Implementing Mechanisms Design for Public Socio-Economic Information Structure: Illustrative Estonian Examples. In: Aksel Kirch et al.(Eds.) Socio-economic and institutional environment: harmonisation in the EU countries of Baltic Sea Rim: a collection of research articles dedicated to the 10th Anniversary of the Institute for European Studies, Tallinn: Tallinn University of Technology, 9 – 39. http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No4/Ennuste.pdf

*** Ennuste, Ü. 2009. Estonian hyper-crisis lessons confirm importance of more effective high quality coordination/regulation and harmonisation: Mechanism design theoretic approach. In:  Aksel Kirch and András Inotai (Eds.) EUROPEAN UNION: CURRENT POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ISSUES. Institute for European Studies Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, 11-35. http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No6/iesp_no6.pdf

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April 21, 2010 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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