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Selected Estonian key heterodox macro-economic retrospective/prospective indicators (Sept 2010)

Selected Estonian key heterodox macro-economic  retrospective/prospective indicators (Sept 2010)  

(a personal selection and lexical national socio-economic real- and institutinal-complex quality estimates in the EU context: blue – good, black –normal, red – bad (divergent) – italic means low credibility; prospective indicators conditional on the hypothesis of the continuation of present economic policy and mechanisms without any significant reforms; see also Notes) 

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP
(% change)
EU CP Jan 2010  -3.6 -14.1 1/2*  0/5 0/7 0/8
The Econ. Aug 10       3/1  1/5     
               
 HICP inflation
(%)
 EstMoF 10.6 0.2 2 1/4  1/4  1/4
The Econ. Aug 10       1/3       
ÜE (inc house prices )** 15/20  0/-5        
 Domestic demand(% change)  

Employment (thousands)

 

 

Output gap
(% of potential GDP)

   SatOfEstÜE

 

 

 

 

EstMoF

 

 

 

 

 

EU CP Jan 2009 

   -11  

 

 

 

 

657 

 

 

 

 

 

6.2

   -22 

 

 

 

 

596 

 

 

 

 

 

-8.8

     

 

bad

 

 

 

 

 

570

 

 

 

 

 

-8.4

 

 

     

 

bad

 

 

 

 

 

570

 

 

 

 

 

-5.7

 

 

     

 

bad

 

 

 

 

 

580

 

 

 

 

 

-3.1

 

 

     

 

bad

 

 

 

 

 

590

 

 

 

 

 

-0.5

 

 

             
             
Gross external debt (% of GDP)   Bank of  Est/IMF    c 130 c 130 c 130   bad   bad   bad
             
             
At risk of the poverty rate total (%) and quintile indices  Eurostat (poverty risk %)   

Eurostat (income inequality quint index)

ÜE (consumption inequality quint index)

 

 19           5*** 

 6/7

         
             
             
General government expenditure(% of GDP) EU CP Jan 2010  39.9 47.6 47.9 46.0 42.5 39.0
             
             
General government balance
(% of GDP)
EU CP Jan 2010  -2.8 -2.6 -2.2 -2.0 -1.0 0.2
             
             
Unemployment
(%)
The Econ Aug 10    19        
  Setoff  6 14 15 13 11 9
             
Gross investment (% of GDP)Foreign direct investments out of Estonia
(% of GDP)
 EstMoF ÜE 

 

Bank of Estonia

36    

4

22    

8

bad    bad   bad  bad  
ÜE     bad bad bad bad
             
Net national income(% of GDP) Eurostat 81 82         
ÜE     bad bad bad bad
             
Government gross debt
(% of GDP)Socio-economic institutional complex

(remains to be studied)

Publik knowledge structure

Real complex coordination mechanism

Knowledge structure coordination mechanism

 EU CP Jan 2010  4.6  7.8  10  13  13/15  13/18
             
             
  Notes:              
*Confidence intervals (x/y) are mine estimates; , so are estimations of  credible numerals in the numbers (e.g. 1234 > 1200 in the Table means that only first two are estimated to be credible: 12(+/-0.5)100;  additionally low reputation of the source (e.g. personal estimate) is noted by italics;administrative prospective indicators are treated as projections (stochastic plans) and independent as stochastic predictions/forecasts. **Consumption investment prices probably exceptionally volatile in this all period (ÜE).*** – seems to be a bit fabricated or so (there are rumours that Eurostat has erroneously published  these Estonian actual 2007 indices with time shift as 2008 indices and so shifted 2008 to 2009).
 Comments It seems that Sources are not giving any significant macro effect whatsoever to euro introduction. In this Table Net national income % of GDP and index of the Output cap may first of all taken as indicators of the incompetence of  present economic policy: unbalanced tax system, instable prices policies, unbalanced labour market, etc. NB: Domestic demand decline is more drastic of the GDP drop. 

Selection is missing many significant indicators e.g. GDP Potential (credible forecasts are not publicly available), Net National Income per capita (credible data not publicly available, and most importantly the standard GDP PPS per capita indicators may be politically easily interpreted misguidedly/illusory in many ways (PPS is a not a real market price but imputation, GDP may be just rough approximate of the NNI etc, btw The Economist is avoiding this indicator also)) so are missing R&D indicators as perhaps not comparable with eurostat standards.

 Also economic institutional system quality evolution indicators (institutional structural reforms dynamic indicators) are missing; as there seems to be nothing of the kind significantly changing in this period (joining euro-zone in the case of currency board is not structural change.

 In the Table the quality estimates (colours) of the Estonian indicators in the EU context and heterodox analysis approach, have taken into consideration the Estonian idiosyncrasies: first of all smallness, relatively low Real GDP per capita (ca 1/3 of the EU average according to the Eurostat), potential high instability considering high ethnic heterogeneity) etc.

 

E.g. as the Estonian economic potential seems to be relatively low, close to the critical level of sustainable evolution, even the relatively small negative changes in the GDP gap or in the employment and investments levels, may be taken as going “into the red”. 

 
 
Sources: EU Commission Convergence programme (CP) and Forecasts (btw, in 2010 September  Forecast  only EU7 countries have been represented), Estonian CP, The Economist; Eurostat, Bank of Estonia Statistics; Estonia Ministry of Finance, IMF, Statistical Office of Estonia, and estimates of mine (ÜE).   
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September 15, 2010 - Posted by | Uncategorized

4 Comments »

  1. […] Selected Estonian key heterodox macro-economic retrospective/prospective indicators (Sept 2010) […]

    Pingback by Letter to the Editor of the Economist « Ülo Ennuste Economics | November 3, 2010 | Reply

  2. […] Selected Estonian key heterodox macro-economic retrospective/prospective indicators (Sept 2010) […]

    Pingback by Heterodokseid näiteid kriisilõpu/taastumisalguse aasta-kriteeriumi kontseptsioonidest ning valemitest « Ülo Ennuste Economics | January 14, 2011 | Reply

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