Ülo Ennuste Economics

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Kuidas ikka euroalase hägusteavitamise moraaliga lood on

Londoni finantsistid olevat kui üks konsensusklimp eurokatastroofi fataalsuses ja isegi tugevad majandused nagu Eesti langevat selle ohvriks: kolumnist A. Turay „London euro pisaraid ei usu” (PM 21.X 11 lk 12 tervelt täis)

Kuidas taoliste maailmakuulsate kolumnistide heietustega ikka lood on nt – et justkui kogu Londoni finantsimpeerium on justkui konsolideerunud seisukohal et:

„Küsimus ei ole enam selles, kas euro kukub läbi, vaid millal see juhtub.”

Taevane arm – samas nt viimatine The Economist (Londoni üks finanfskompassides) kirjutas olulisemalt nt:

‎”It is a cruel irony that the euro could be felled by an Italian trying too hard to be a German.”

Time for Super Mario

www.economist.com

MARIO DRAGHI, the Italian who succeeds Jean-Claude Trichet as president of the European Central Bank on November 1st, will be a top dog among central bankers.”

See esimene lause on tõlgendatav ikka nii et see oleks mingi õudiroonia kui Mario Draghi ajal ECB peaks euro likvideeritama või nii.

Tõepoolest et euroskeptik Lord Wolfson on Londonis juba välja kuulutanud preemia (rahaliselt Nobeli kaliibris) parimale euro likvideerimise projektile nii et mingit jama ei kaasneks – kuid kohe on Londoni finantsimpeeriumi lipulaev FT (22.X 11) Lordi elegantselt naerualuseks teinud püüdlusega omletist muna teha:

„Looks like this will be a difficult prize to win.

Yes. Lord Wolfson has made his point, in a way.

In another way, it is odd to complain that a euro-exit would be messy and difficult. That is the nature of adopting a single currency: if it could be dissolved on a whim, it wouldn’t have any value or significance in the first place. As with a marriage, the binding commitment is pretty central to the whole idea.

So Lord Wolfson’s money is safe!”

 Veelgi absurdsem on aga Turay PMis:

„Isegi tugevad majandused (Eesti) langevad ühel hetkel … „

Siin on jutt euroalasse kuuluvatest riikidest seoses euro probleemidega – ja kuidas ikka saab maailmakuulus ajakirjanik tugevaks nimetada (isegi sulgudes) tillumajandust mille GDP pc on ligi 1/3 euroala keskmisest (Eurostat, reaalselt püsihindades).

Kellele ikka võiks maailmakuulsa kolumnisti sellised meie rahvuslikku avalikku majandusteadmusruumi hägustavad üllitised PMis kasulikud olla (Eesti rahvuslikule majandusele on need otseselt kahjulikud ja paanikat õhutavad) või millelt tähelepanu kõrvale juhtivad?

Mis veelgi olulisem on see et aasta lõpul jõustuv „Eoroopa Semester” sisaldab reeglit:

„igale valitsusele, kes püüab vale statistikat esitades partneritele puru silma ajada, määratakse suur rahatrahv.” (EPL 21.X 11, Olli Rehn, Arvamus)

Selge et moraalselt (mitterahaliselt) laieneb see reegel ka massimeediale. Nt Turay lause:

„Jah, Suurbritannia on traditsiooniliselt olnud palju euroskeptilisem kui Eesti,”

Kui see hägusloogika ei ole puru silma ajamine mis see siis on sest:

a) need riigid ei ole otseselt võrreldavad (v.a et mõlemas suhtsuur majanduslik ebavõrdsus euroliidu taustal; isegi inglise moraalsemad ratsionaalsed euroskeptikud saavad aru missugune suur naaber meil on ning missugune etniline lõhestatus) ning kuivõrd oluline ning raske on meil saavutada rahvusvahelist usaldusväärsust suurriigiga võrreldes – seda eriti oma vääringu puhul

b) teatavasti Eestis ei  ole „traditsiooniliselt” üldse teada ühegi makroökonoomilisest asjatundjast euroskeptikut, süvateadlastest rääkimata – tõsi et on üks juristist riigikogulane estraadiliku stiiliga, üks põllumajandusökonoomika kandidaadist prof linnaülikoolist, üks hargmaise panga ökonomist (peakontor väljaspool eurotsooni) + hulgaliselt igat masti bulvari-bravuuritsejaid ja vaegteadmuslikke tühikargajaid-hägusloogikuid.

Väga soovitaks heale Abdul Turay’le kiiresti registreerida ennast vähemalt peatselt Poolas toimuvale konverentsile Euroliidu lähituleviku küsimustes:

CASE- Center for Social and Economic Research 

Cordially invites you to attend

Europe 2020 – Exploring the Future of
European Integration

CASE 7th biennial International Conference

November 18-19, Warsaw

The Europe 2020 – Exploring the Future of European Integration 2011 International Conference will be held November 18 – 19 at Falenty Center in Warsaw. The 2011 Conference will consider the challenges facing the European integration process in the global context of the post-financial-crisis environment and uncertain economic growth prospects. We have also a pleasure to inform you all that CASE 2011 International Conference marks our CASE 20th Anniversary. On this occasion, we would be delighted to meet you all at CASE 20th Anniversary Dinner Reception, taking place in the Falenty Conference Center from 18:30 to 21:30.

Distinguished panelists from around the world will discuss the global macroeconomic and financial crisis in the following thematic sessions:

Session 1:

Reforming the global and European financial sectors – have the lessons of the last crisis been correctly learned?

Presentation of the World Bank EU10 Regular Economic Report

Session 2:
Is Europe going to repeat a Japanese-style stagnation trap?
Session 3:
The European and global economic governance reform – what does it mean in practice?
Session 4:
The European and global fiscal crisis – is a default scenario unavoidable?
Session 5:
Beyond the EU-27: perspectives of EU enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy
Keynote Address:

Anders Aslund -“Central and Eastern Europe – the Way Out of Financial Crisis”

Confirmed speakers include: Itzhak Goldberg (World Bank), Leszek Balcerowicz (FOR), Anders Aslund (Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics), Peter Harrold (World Bank director for Central Europe and Baltic Countries), Eric Berglof (EBRD), Luca Barbone (CASE), Moreno Bertoldi (IMF), Jan Svejnar (Director of the International Policy Center), Istvan Szekely (Director of “Economies of the member states III” directorate at the DG ECFIN) , Fabrizio Coricelli (Paris School of Economics), Lucio Pench (EC) and Juan Zalduendo (World Bank) among many others. For a complete list of conference speakers and detailed agenda please visit the conference website athttp://www.caseconference.eu/panelists.html

For the full program please see: http://www.caseconference.eu/program.html

Conference registration is required. As the conference is quickly approaching, we encourage you to register athttp://www.caseconference.eu/registration.html.

We look forward to hosting another successful international conference and to greeting you in Warsaw in November.

With kind regards,

Conference Organization Team

CASE – Center for Social and Economic Research,

Email: conference2011@case-research.eu
organized by: www.case-research.eu

Conference website: www.caseconference.eu

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October 23, 2011 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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