Ülo Ennuste Economics

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Projekti ORURK/VALGERAAMAT UURIMUSTE  TÄIENDUS/LAIENDUS LÄHTE-KONTSEPSIOON (Visand – täiendamiseks – mitte levitamiseks või viitamiseks)

(Visand 3.II 2016 + LISA B – osaline automatic translation)

„Eesti rahvuslikud sajandilised arengukaotused nii repressiivsetes militaar-okupatsioonides kui ka hübriid-sõdades ning nende ületamise võimaluste uurimine moodsa Sotsiaa-Küberneetika ning IKT narratiivide põhiselt“

Projekti põhikontseptsiooniks on  Interneti ajastule omaste e-Riikide moodsate uurimisvõimaluste* kasutamine Hübriid Sõja (HS) tingimustes ORURK/VALGERAAMAT (O/V ja VR (2005):

“Valge raamat: Eesti rahva kaotustest okupatsioonide läbi 1940-1991″(peatoim Vello Salo). Okupatsioonide Repressiivpoliitika Uurimise Riiklik Komisjon, Eesti Entsüklopeediakirjastus, Tallinn 2005:

http://digar.nlib.ee/digar/show/?id=8196

http://www.riigikogu.ee/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Valge-Raamat.pdf

“The White Book. Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes 1940-1991” (Ed in Chief Vello Salo) State Committee on the Investigation into Repression Policy of Occupation, Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers, Tallinn 2005:

http://digar.nlib.ee/digar/show/?id=8192

http://www.riigikogu.ee/public/Riigikogu/TheWhiteBook

 

ning teiste publikatsioonide** täiendamiseks ning laiendamiseks – arvestades parajasti terroristliku Veneokupatsiooni tinglikku jätkumist HS rinnetel NLi taastamiseks (niisiis taasokupeerimiseks (“alla neelamiseks” Zubkova  Baltimaade kohta – seejuures eriti õpetlik parajasti on “alla neelamise tehnoloogia” analüüs) kuid nüüd juba eelmise okupatsiooni poolt terroristlikult deformeeritud etnilise struktuuri tingimustes) – eeskätt sanktsioonide- ning küber-sõja (laias Wiener’likus mõttes) frontidel – ning laiendamiseks eeskätt Eesti Rahvusliku Inimvarade (Kapitali/Perevara/Rahvusliku vara) ja Etnilise Struktuuri terroristlikul moonutamisel ning Teadmusruumi ja Kultuurilis/Eetiliste ruumide risustamisel (kahjuks barbaarse ebavõrdsuse tingimustes) ning Institutsionaalsete arenguvarade kaotustega eeskätt Eesti rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse riskide indikaatorite mõistes – ja seda moodsate sotsiaal-küberneertiliste metoodikate ja IKT põhiselt (Exceli analüüsidega nt Krugman’i eeskujul) ning rahvusvaheliselt laialdase koostöö alusel***

Tingimata on vaja VR (2005) teksti kooskõlastada nt Zetterberg (2007 ja e.k 2oo9), ESTONIA 1941-1945 (2006), Zubkova (2008 ja e.k 2009), Lindmäe (2015), võimaluse korral ka Valge “PUNASED II” ning ka “Estonia and Finland” (Helsinki 2003 sest ilmselt analoogiad on parimad makroefektiivsuste võrlemiseks) faktide alusel jne vastavate värskete monograafiatega kogu Maailmast – seda eriti seoses asjaoludega et üha enam ilmub sõltuvate agentide/sektide ja viiendate kolonnide poolt kaskaadidena HS ideoloogia Hübriidrinnetelt uputavalt eeskätt võltsdigiproduksioone nagu: okupatsioonid olid kokkuvõttes kasulikud ning Eesti isolatsioon Läände ning Põhjala suunas eriti hukutav arvestades venekeelse rahvusvähemuse suure osakaaluga (võib jääda taktikalise tuumarelva rindeks) ning nagu Soome oleks koos Põhjalaga manduv (vs Krugman hiljuti NYT.com blogis avaldas essee “Midagi ei ole mäda Taani Riigis” vt ka

https://yloennuste.wordpress.com/2016/01/22/jarjest-rohkem-tott/)

Peaaegu päris kindlasti Projekt võimaldaks meie lähiajaloolisi rahvuslikke kaotusi ja nende põhjuseid ning riske senisest täpsemalt hinnata ja seega ka meie rahvuslike jätkusuutlikkuse tulevikuriske  adekvaatsemalt hinnata – seda ligi tosina aasta jooksul ilmud ajalooliste uuringute ning sotsiaal-küberneetika ja IKT uute tulemuste baasil: peaaegu kindlasi värskendatud teadmised näitavad okupatsioonide represiivpoliitikate tagajärgi senistest hinnangutest palju barbaarsematena – ning seda oleks piisava rahastamise puhul võimalik teostada juba sügiseks

Projekti üheks põhitäitjaks võiks olla kirjastus SA VALGE RAAMAT (SAVR) täiendatud kooseisus kus parajasti juhendajele/toimetajatele (Tarvel&Ennuste) ning põhiautoritele  (Lindmäe&Varju) võiks lisaks tulla nt sõltumatud korralised professorid/vanemteadurid ülikoolidest (nt J. Valge – kokkulepit 18.I), A. Purju (nt institutsiooniliste varade kaotuste alal), A. Rahi-Tamm (P. Varju tegeleb kokkuleppimisega), soovitalt veel välisautorid nt Edward Lucas (Ligi Mobilitase fond!) jne:  – kõik professorid koos üliõpilastega kes osavad Excelis (eeskätt regressioonides) + kirjanikud (nt Saat ja Paju jne eriti VRs dr Noor’e käsitluse arendamisel) + Riigikogu liikmed (nt E.-N. Kross keda taasokupeerimiseks juba Putin’i poolt juba järjekordselt represseeritud jne) + soovitavalt esimene Eesti e-resident autor E. Lucas, IUA ja TTÜ d.h.c. Ungari akadeemik A. Inotai jne

Rahastamine (VR Juhatusest P. Varju vastutavaks) peamiselt Riigikogu kaudu (Ase-esimees Seeder juhtivaks ning Eessõna kirjutajaks) siis Teadusagentuuri poolt (seoses üliõpilastega) ning väidetavalt ka Eesti Üliõpilaste Toetusfond USAs („Tervist !
Eesti üliõpilaste toetusfond USA-s 2016. aasta projektitaotluste kohta saab infot veebilehelt: http://www.esfusa.org
Lugupidamisega,
Peep Varju“).

P.S.: Üheks kontseptuaalseks aluseks komplekse stohhastilise makro-hindamismudeli disainimisel võiks olla nn analoogmeetodi kasutamine:

Ennuste, Ü. 1993. An outline for estimating long-term economic damage by means of analogy. Eesti TA Toimetised. Humanitaar- ja Sotsiaalteadused, 42, 1, 1-4.

Seega rahvuslik makro-kaotus mingis dimensioonis oleks vahe: utoopilises tsiviliseeritud majandusliidus oodatava optimaalse potentsiaalse taseme (Eesti puhul mudel nt kalibreeritud Soome parameetritega) ja barbaarse  diktatuuri tegelikkuse vahel

Kompleksus seisneks selles et käsitletakse nii nähtavaid kui ka nähtamatuid rahvuslikke varasid – nii nende seisundeid kui ka vooge ja nendega seotud määramatuseid ning riske jne.

Nähtamatud varad on eeskätt rahvusliku teadmusstruktuuri ning kultuuri kvaliteet ja sotsiaalsete küberneetiliste mehhanismide (nt maksumehhanismide) fefektiivsus jne.

*) https://www.president.ee/et/meediakajastus/pressiteated/11925-president-ilves-washingtonis-maailmapanga-arenguaruande-tutvustamisel-interneti-puudumine-pidurdab-nelja-miljardi-inimese-arengut/index.html:

Raport on alla laaditav siit: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/23347

Lisainfo: http://live.worldbank.org/world-development-report-2016

+ Varian, Hal. 2003. “Economics of Information Technology.”
Revised version of the Raffaele Mattioli Lecture,
delivered at the Sorbonne on March 6, 2003.http://people.ischool.berkeley.edu/~hal/Papers/mattioli
/mattioli.pdf. – sobiv ka informatsiooniliste kaotuste ning kahjustuste hindamiseks – ja:

http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT – sobiv sanktsioonide sõja kaotuste ning kompensatsioonide küberneetiliseks hindamiseks

**) https://yloennuste.wordpress.com/2015/03/30/vilesauts-riigikogulastele/  ja

https://yloennuste.wordpress.com/2015/04/29/memo-29-iv-15-riigikogule-ajaliselt-jalgu-jaanud-kodulehekulje-asendamise-kohta/

***) + http://www.communistcrimes.org/en/Database/Estonia/Estonia-Communist-Era  + Poola-Leedu-Läti vastavad teaduskeskused mis on HübriidSõja käigus aktiviseerunud + soovitavalt Ungari autoreid

LISA A:

Peep Varju. Eesti laste küüditamine Venemaale 14. juunil 1941 kui genotsiidi- jasõjakuritegu. Sihtasutus Valge Raamat, Talinna Raamatutrükikoda, 116 lk, Tallinn 2013:

http://digar.nlib.ee/digar/show.action?id=134869&q=varju%2C )

Vääriks täiendavat peatükki VRs

P.S.: PhD Kirch küsimuste kohta:

a) “Valge raamat” (2005) oli selleks ajaks juba aastaid läbimüüdud kui Putin alustas Balti-Riikide taasokupeerimise kampaaniat ning HübriidRepresseerimist NLi taastamiseks: niisiis esimene pt vajab kiiret aktualiseerimist ning järgmised samuti aktsentide vastavat nihutamist ning faktorite täiendamist

b) Veelgi hullem et on märgata et nt “Valge raamat” on sattunud tabuteemade hulka – nt Riigikogu on selle venekeelse digiversiooni hiljuti kodulehelt kõrvaldanud – samas ka sellest seeriast autorit H. Lindmäe “Suvesõda … 1941”  (kokku 9 Köidet (sic! üe)) on tabanud Teadusministeeriumi poolt ilmselt tõrjuv hoiak – muide vastava täiendava pt lisamine on obligatoorne praeguseks kujunenud olukorras

c) Kuigi sajandi alguseks olid sotsiaal-küberneetiliste mehhanismide ning istitutsiooniliste  ja rahvuslike teadmusruumide varade hindamise riskiteoreetilised alused rajatud – kuid tosin aastat tagasi jäid need meil suuresti siiski vaateväljast välja vähemalt rangelt kvantifitseeritud kujul – niisiis ka see lünk vajab korrigeerimist käsitluste teaduspõhisuse ning usaldusväärsuse tõstmiseks – ning praeguse olukorra adekvaatsemaks hindamiseks nt eeskätt tänapäeva Nobelistide eeskujul (muide Dr Aksel Kitch’iga on osalemises kokkulpit. 21.I 2016 ja loodetavasti panustab etnilise struktuuri terroristliku moonutamise kahjulikkusele).

Lisaks NB allikaid:

Nt FT.com: “Fresh ideas and lessons from the past are key to Europe’s survival” by Mark Mazower – millest lõike:

The historic scale of the crisis facing Europe is dawning on its elites. In Davos a series of political leaders lined up to proclaim the gravity of the situation. For Manuel Valls, the French prime minister, the refugee exodus from Syria poses an existential risk to the EU; Mark Rutte, his Dutch counterpart, warned that it may be only a matter of weeks before the Schengen era of border-free travel collapses. Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister, called for a Marshall plan for the EU’s neighbours.

……………..

I was going to write — “critics and supporters of the European dream”. But there is no dream any longer and that is in some ways the biggest problem of all. Today’s politicians are in thrall to a conception of themselves as short-term managers of events rather than as strategists governing for the long term. Crisis mode has become the norm, and events have emerged to fit that model. Stepping back and thinking about the EU’s long-term evolution is now almost impossible. Yet never has it been more needed. If 200 years ago, for the architects of the post-Napoleonic peace, Europe was a slogan, a set of principles in search of institutional form, today it is a set of organisations in search of guiding principles.

A longer-term assessment would start with the founders of (western) European co-operation in the late 1940s. They did not contemplate integration as a way to supersede nation-states; rather they welcomed the revival of nation-states and saw co-operation as a way to help them flourish. Integration was not only unprecedented but also modest in scope. Economies flourished: growth was high, unemployment low and exchange controls curtailed cross-border capital flows, enabling governments to support managed capitalism through fiscal policy and strategic investment. It was in this era, so different in its core values from today, that the political capital was laid down for Europe, which the union is now spending so fast.

………………

ation and a new conception of democracy, in which national parliaments were carefully monitored by judges and central bankers as supposedly independent guarantors of fiscal probity. The creation of a common currency, the euro, intensified this mistrust of parliaments, but nobody cared much before 2008 because growth was good and there was enough to go round.

Now the money has dried up, what can the EU’s defenders say? That it provides peace? Voters take that for granted. That the euro remains strong? A great political project will never flourish on monetary stability alone. That the EU encourages growth? Hardly. Democracy? Not when Europe is identified with a fiscal regime enforced by constitutional lawyers and central bankers that sees millions forever consigned to joblessness: an EU with an inflation rate of 0.1 per cent and a youth unemployment rate of over 20 per cent is a body that, to put it crudely, prioritises the old and the rich. No dream there unless something changes fast.

It is no longer in supporting the union but in proposing resistance to it that nationalist politicians see the chance to burnish their democratic credentials. The union faces a deep crisis of institutional legitimacy.

…………..

The slogan “ever closer union” should be replaced by a much more self-critical approach to what the union has achieved in the past 40 years, with institutional flexibility embraced, rather than seen as a mark of failure.

The EU’s founders grew up through depression, war and occupation. Their successors, who did not, must now think afresh about the continent and its needs. The past holds an important lesson: integration prospered when growth and employment mattered more than unfettered capital movements and when fiscal policy counted for more than monetary policy.

Today’s leaders will also need to discover something of the farsightedness of earlier generations. Like them, they will need to show that the union can help nations, not hurt them, and that capitalism and democracy can be reconciled. This time they have to do it in a globalising world and in a union with five times more members than the original group. It will take a real effort of historical imagination and reinvention. But without it, the EU is living on borrowed time.

The writer is professor of history at Columbia University and author of ‘Governing the World: the History of an Idea’

NB!

Letter to the Editor of the “Journal of Comparative Economics” by Ü.E.

Sir – Paul R. Gregory, Philipp J.H. Schröder and Konstantin Sonin in the paper:

“Rational dictators and the killing of innocents: Data from Stalin’s archives”(*) 

have correctly posited a classical rational decision theoretic stochastic/Bayesian choice model of terrorist dictatorship to explain the tendency of dictators to repress innocent citizens. This model adequately demonstrates that, when the quality of information about regime enemies is low, a rational dictator will knowingly/”rationally”  kill and imprison citizens who are not real enemies.

But as we know from many and many documents (e.g. the Mitrokhin Archives) and studies (e.g. “Estonia 1940-1945” Tallinn 2006 1333 p, and  “White Book” Tallinn 2005 171 p(**))  – under both Stalin and Hitler regimes) and multiple credible biographies etc – the lower coordinators  (generals, governors,  administrators, managers etc) in the dictatorship hierarchy and including satellite dictators etc were strictly  commanded  to behave irrationally, make contradictory demagogic statements, implement inconsistent laws, were prescribed quotas of eliminations and deportations of the citizens etc. By the way a class of  analogical historical problems – e.g. from Prof P. Ramazzoti (2005, privately):

In Aeschylus’ Oresteia, Agamemnon is forced to choose between losing his army or losing his daughter. He is therefore forced to link two previously independent sub-systems: the sub-system that defines his family relations and the sub-system that defines his military/political relations. The two sub-systems involve very clear rules: defend your family, on the one hand; defend your kingdom, on the other. The two rules turn out to be inconsistent under the specific circumstances Agamemnon finds himself in.”

And last but not least – for the Stalin’s paradigms the classical set of  “innocent  citizens” may not be the sufficiently reliable and valid research instrument – as in those paradigms positively absolutely all citizens have some kind or rate of guiltiness (e.g. at least relatives abroad, ancestors rich or have served other regimes etc).

Understandably in these situations the rational choice theories would certainly not adequately describe/model reality: in these circumstances may be that formalized modelling by Zadeh’s  fuzzy sets and logic (1965) should be more appropriate (perhaps therewith involving complex numbers etc): as there are in Zadeh’s semantics idiosyncratic (contradictory to classical set theories) membership rate functions – à la membership rates of the families or the peoples in the both sets – membership rates in the set of innocents and in the set of the regime enemies, and therefore this “allows” publicly somehow to justify repressions/eliminations of certain innocents and to have mercy upon some enemies – for the glory of the godlike dictator.

(*) Journal of Comparative Economics Volume 39, Issue 1, March 2011, Pages 34-42.

(**) http://tallinn.ester.ee/search~S7*est?/.b2042174/.b2042174/1,1,1,B/l856~b2042174&FF=&1,0,,1,0

NB! RAAMAT SAADAVAL

SUVESÕDA HARJUMAAL 1941

Autor: HERBERT LINDMÄE

“Suvesõda Harjumaal 1941” on autorilt üheksas (sic! üe) raamat sellel teemal ning võiks olla nagu kokkuvõte relvastatud ülestõusust, mis haaras eranditult kõiki maakondi Eestis. Pärast 14. juunil 1941 toimunud jõhkrat ja massilist küüditamist Venemaale, puhkes relvituks tehtud rahva spontaanne vastuhakk nõukogude okupatsioonivõimule. Kogu maad hõlmanud vastupanuvõitlus on parimaks tõendiks sellest, et eesti rahvas ei olnud mingil moel soovinud 1940. aastal vabatahtlikult ühineda terroristliku Nõukogude riigiga.

Rohkete faktide esitamisega ning paljude algallikate (üle 700) läbitöötamisega annab autor usaldusväärse ning tõese ülevaate toimunud võitlustest Eesti iseseisvuse taastamiseks. Harjumaa ja Tallinn olid viimasteks piirkondadeks mandril, kust okupandid minema kihutati. Ja seepärast olid siinsed inimkaotused eriti suured. H. Lindmäe esitab valdade ja linnade kaupa väga täpsed andmed Eesti kodanike saatusest ja selle tulemusena võib juhtuda, et esmakordselt just sellest raamatust saadakse teada oma lähedaste täpselt fikseeritud saatus. Põhjalik ülevaade kommunistide sõjakuritegudest saab kulminatsiooni Pirita-Kose massimõrva täpse kirjeldamisega. Punalaevastiku kaotusterohke ja häbiväärne põgenemine Tallinnast 28. augustil 1941sümboliseerib nn võitmatu Punaarmee tegelikku võitlusvõimet. Sõjaraamat on ühtlasi suurepärane teatmeteos Harju maakonnast läbi sajandite muinasajast alates.

Autor on oskuslikult suutnud kirja panna tähtsamad ajaloolised sündmused nagu Jüriöö ülestõus ning andnud põhjaliku ülevaate väljapaistvatest inimestest, kes olid siit pärit või seotud Harjumaaga.

Raamatu viimases osas : “Aeg sangarid kõik unustab …” annab kriminalistika professor H. Lindmäe meie lähiajaloo kõige enam vaidlusi tekitanud eestlaste vastupanuvõitlusele 1944. aasta kaitselahingute ajal täpse ning väärika hinnangu. Teadlase ja kodanikuna toob ta esile meie rahvale olulise ajaloolise tõe, millest praegu vabas Eestis paljud ikka veel ei julge rääkida.

Soovitan kõigile Eesti patriootidele tutvuda H. Lindmäe järjekordse sõjaraamatuga. Faktidele toetuv tõepärane lugu võitlusest Eesti eest annab põhjust tunda uhkust meie sangarite tegudest.

Peep Varju (Kirjastus VALGE RAAMAT)

 

ISBN 9789949385065
ILMUMISAASTA 2015 dets
KEEL eestikeelne
FORMAAT Kõvakaaneline
LEHEKÜLGI 648 lk
MÕÕT 210x148x40 (mm)
KIRJASTUS VALGE RAAMAT

Väärib peatükki VRs

 

NB! The BOOK Available:

„SUVESÕDA HARJUMAAL 1941“  by Prof  HERBERT LINDMÄE,  VALGE RAAMAT Publishers, Tartu 2015  648pp  –

Prof Lindmäe’s ninth (sic! üe) book on this topic, and could be like the summary of the guerrilla war against Soviet Army in 1941 which grabbed all counties in Estonia. After 14 in June 1941 the barbaric and massive deportation of Estonian Population to Siberia, broke out the nation spontaneous military opposition to the Soviets. The whole of the Nation had been covered by the resistance – is -the best evidence of the fact that the Estonian People had not been in any way free willingly joined in 1940 in the terrorist Soviet Union.

With numerous facts and many of the sources (> 700) this BOOK gives an overview of the true and sound narrative of the Estonian victories to achieve independence. In the Harjumaa County and in Tallinn, where have been casualties especially large – and by Prof Lindmäe the very precise factually rich information on the fate of the Estonian citizens in this Region in these times is extremely valuable historically as well politically and presently extremely actual also.

 

 

LISA B –  SAVR tehnoloogiline skeem Projekti O/V* realiseerimiseks

  • Projekti esitamine rahastamiseks (kogu Projekti maht ja kvaliteet ning lõpetamise kiirus sõltub oodatavast rahastamisest nii RK kui ka HTM kui ka Rahvusvaheliselt nt ELi jne poolt – mille projekti koostab kibekiirel P. Varju (sh võimalikest laenudest töö viivitamatuks alustamiseks) sh NB! Varju kibekiirelt tellib RRist kogumike “Kannatuste aastad I ja II” võrguteadmikeks toimetamise et need oleks rahvusvaheliset kättesaadavad)
  • Minimaalne laiendamine: a) olemasolevate oluliste publikatsioonide (eeskätt VR(2005)) võimalikult kõigi autorite poolt honoreeritavalt) värskendamine nii andmetega 2004-2014 – kui ka põhjalikemate ning värskemate viidetega (ka käimasoleva Hübriid Sõja kogemusi arvestavalt – rangelt VR(2005) eeskujul b) kõigi olemasolevate tekstide/analüüside teadusloogiline põhjendatuse ning formaliseerituse suurendamine (nt Kokkuvõtvate Tabelitega Aigi Rahi-Tamm eeskujul VR(2005) järgi prof/autorite poolt – ning Tabelite võimalikud Excel analüüsid (graafilised, komplekstabelid kronoloogiliselt (nt http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No3/ lk 110-126),korrelatsioonid, „tuuleroosid“ jne eeskätt üliõpilaste poolt) b) VR(2005) laiendamine täiendavate peatükkidega mis vajalikud täieliku kattuvuse saavutamiseks vastavate Rahvusvaheliste Koostöö Projektidega (RKP) – eriti Poola-Leedu-Läti-Eesti Koostöö Projektiga (POLELÄEE-RKP) – töökeeled e.k ja ingl
  • Optimaalne laiendamine tähendaks lisaks uute spetsiaalsete Eestile Ideosünkraatsete Peatükkide/Lisade sissetoomist (nt Lindmäe poolt „Suvesõda 1041“ koos viimastel aastatel ilmunud Köidete materjalidega, nt oleks vaja Demograafilis-Etnilisi Dünaamika Analüüsi Peatükki – võimalikult koos mudeliga, Rahvuslike Varade Kaotuste Peatükki (sh Kultuurivarad jne) – minule on nõusoleku osalemiseks andnud uute autoritena Dr J. Valge ja Dr A. Kirch (Kellega tuleb SAVR poolt lepingud sõlmida – finantsvõimaluse korral püüaksin nt Edward Lucas’ega kontakteeruda
  • Viivitamatul tuleb SAVR’tul Projekti Kodulehekülg rajada (nt Communistcrimes.com eeskujul) projektis osalejate tsiviliseeritud kommunikeerumiseks tekstide variantidega).

 

*)) https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2016/01/18/projekti-orurkvalgeraamat-uurimuste-taienduslaiendus-lahte-kontsepsioon-visand-18-i-2016-taiendamiseks-mitte-levitamiseks-voi-viitamiseks/

**)) Vastav Rahvusvaheline Koordineerimis-Keskus võiks olla mõne Poola ülikooli juures.

 

(automatic translation 26.I 2016)

The PROJECT ORURK/VALGERAAMAT RESEARCH SUPPLEMENTS/EXTENSION Source-Conceptions  (sketch – for supplements – not for distribution or reference)

“The Estonian national long term losses in the repressive military occupations and presently also in the hybrid-the wars and their analyses by the possibilities of modern ICT-based and Social-Cybernetics”

The project is connected to the Internet and the modern age-specific  digital methods and social-cyber theories* for ORURK/VALGERAAMAT (O/V and VR (2005):

 

“The White Book. Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes 1940-1991” (Ed in Chief Vello Salo) State Committee on the Investigation into Repression Policy of Occupation, Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers, Tallinn 2005:

http://digar.nlib.ee/digar/show/?id=8192

http://www.riigikogu.ee/public/Riigikogu/TheWhiteBook

http://www.riigikogu.ee/public/Riigikogu/TheWhiteBook.p)

to supplement and expand these** publications  – considering the continuation of national terrorist Russian occuption currently in a Hybrid-War (HS) to restore the SU fronts (so for reoccupation  ( “down to absorb the” Baltic Zubkova) but now already the previous occupation of the terroristlikult by the deformed of the ethnic structure of the conditions – in particular, the sanctions-and cyber-war (in a wide sense of the  Wiener’s sense)  frontidel – and in particular, to expand the National Estonian human   (capital/Perevara/National property), and the ethnic structure of the terroristlikul moonutamisel and Teadmusruumi and risustamisel (the cultural/Ethical premises Unfortunately, the barbaric conditions of inequality), and in particular in the institutional sustainability of the Estonian national arenguvarade with the losses of the sustainability in the meaning of indicators of risks – and that of the modern socio-cybernetic theoties and ICT-based (Excel analysis such as Krugman’s models), and on the basis of the internationally widespread cooperation ***

Necessarily need the VR (2005) to coordinate the text, such as Tamra (2007, and e. k 2oo9), ESTONIA in 1941-1945 (2006), Zubkova (2008, and (e) k 2009 – “swollou down technology”), Lindmäe (2015), where possible, also in White and RED “II”, also “the Estonia and Finland” (Helsinki, 2003, because apparently the analogies are the best makroefektiivsuste comarisons) on the basis of the facts, etc. to the corresponding fresh monographs from all over the world – in particular with regard to factors that are increasingly dependent on agents appears in the srects and the framework of the columns, by HS, cascading, the ideology of Hybridfronts  in particular factoyds  such as : occupations hav been useful and Estonian insulation to the West, and in particular towards the Nordic Ring is bad for the Russian-speaking minority with high proportions of seducer (may stick to the tactical nuclear weapons targets etc), and the like would be Finland, together with (vs. Krugman recently published on the blog NYT.com the essay “Something is not rotten in the Denmark “)

Almost certainly, the project would enable the national lähiajaloolisi of our losses, and their reasons and the risks more accurately, and therefore also more adequately to assess the sustainability of our national risks – for nearly a dozen years up to historical studies and socio-Cybernetics and the results of the new ICT-based: almost certaynly the updated knowledge of the consequences of the assessments of the progress of the occupations show the repressive policies  much more barbaric – and this would be in he case of adequate funding and could be carried out already by the autumn

One of the pincipal center of the Project could be the Publishing company WHITE PAPER (SAVR) upgraded to the area where the currently juhendajele/editors ( Tarvel&Ennuste) and autors (Lindmäe & shadow) could come in addition to the regular, independent scolasrs, such as professors/senior researchers from universities (e.g.,. Dr J. Valge – agreed 18. I), Prof A. Purju (e.g. in the area of institutional assets, losses), Prof Rahi-tamm (P. Varju deals with her), perhaps more forigers , such as Edward Lucas (The First e-Resident!), Hungerian Acad A. Inotai d.h.c. of the IUA and TUT in Tallinn etc. : – all the professors with the students who Excel in the good (in particular regressioonides) + writers (such as M.Saat, and I. Paju, etc, especially in the VR’s, Dr. Noor’ s approaches  to the development of + members of the Riigikogu  such as the MP E-N. Kross, (who already has been repressed just recently  by Putin allready by once again in HS repressed, etc) + Funding (VR Board Member P.Varju responsible for ), mainly through the Riigikogu (the Vice-Chairman H. Seeder leading), then by the …

P.S.: One of the conceptual basis for the design of complexes stohhastical macro-assessment model could be the the so-called “analogy approach“ :

Ennuste, Ü., 1993. An outline for a quote on the long-term economic damage by means of analogy. – Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences. Humanities and Social Sciences, 42, 1, 1-4.

Thus, the national macro-losses of different dimension would be the difference between: expected optimal potential level the in civilized economic union conditions (in the case of the Estonian model, such as Finland, calibrated the parameters) and minus real levels ahieved in the barbaric dictatorship real conditions (say Russian occupation)

Complexity–would be for this to be treated as visible and invisible in national assets – both their status and also flows and the associated risks, and uncertainies, etc.

The invisible assets are primarily the national knowledge structures values  and the values of the culture (equality and respect of education and morals etc) and social-cybernetic mechanisms (e.g., efficiencies of tax systemes) etc.

**************

*) https://www.president.ee/et/meediakajastus/pressiteated/11925-president-ilves-Washington-the World Bank-a progress report-presentation-the lack of Internet-slows-the four-billion-per-arengut/index.html:

The report is to download from here:

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/23347

For more information: http://live.worldbank.org/world-development-report-2016

+ Varian, Hal. 2003. “The Economics of Information Technology.”
The revised version of the Lecture, Raffaele Mattioli
delivered at the Sorbonne on March 6, 2003. http://people.ischool.berkeley.edu/~hal/Papers/mattioli
/mattioli.pdf. – suitable for the evaluation of damage and losses also to acquaint the public with the means and:

http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/URbjes-2014-0021.xml to? format = INT – an appropriate compensation for any losses of the war and the sanctions applicable for assessing küberneetiliseks

**)  https://yloennuste.wordpress.com/2015/03/30/vilesauts-riigikogulastele/ and,

https://yloennuste.wordpress.com/2015/04/29/memo-29-iv-15-Riigikogu-the time-legs-jaanud-kodulehekulje-replacement-on/

* * * *) + http://www.communistcrimes.org/en/Database/Estonia/Estonia-Communist-Era Poland-Lithuania-Latvia + meet the research centres that are in the course of construction of HübriidSõja +,

Peep Varju. Estonian children’s deportation to Russia with 14. in June 1941, as the genocide- and war-crime. The White Paper Publishers, Tallinn Raamatutrükikoda, 116 p., Tallinn 2013 (in Est): http://digar.nlib.ee/digar/show.action?id=134869&q=varju%2C – Worth an additional chapter on the VR

P.s.: PhD Kirch on the questions:

(a)) in the “White Book” (2005) was by this time already for many years out of print when Putin began the campaign in the Baltic Countries-taasokupeerimise, and Hübriid Represseerimist to restore the NLi: so the first pt needs a quick aktualiseerimist and aktsentide as well as the corresponding support for the following factors and supplementation

(b)) to the even worse that it is noticeable that, such as the “white book” is stuck in a tabuteemade range – for example, the Riigikogu is the Russian-language website digiversiooni recently eliminated – at the same time this series the author H. Lindmäe “Suvesõda… 1941 “(a total of 9 Volumes (sic!) is hit by the Ministry probably repellent attitude – by the way add a supplementary pt is mandatory by now evolved into a situation

(c) the beginning of the 20th century) while the social mechanisms and küberneetiliste were the istitutsiooniliste and the teadmusruumide of national bases for the assessment of the assets of riskiteoreetilised founded a dozen years ago, but they remained largely out of the sight of us, however, at least in the form of strictly quantified – so this, too, the gap adjustment needs and the approaches to improve the reliability of the teaduspõhisuse – and in particular for the assessment of the current situation, such as adequate in the modern Nobelistide on the model (by the way, Dr. Aksel Kitch ‘ in each is kokkulpit. 21. in 2016 and hopefully contributes to the ethnic structure of the distortion of the terrorist to the seriously).

In addition, the NB sources:

E.g. FT.com: “Fresh ideas and lessons from the past are key to Europe’s survival” by the Mark Mazower-from which the paragraph:

The historic scale of the crisis facing Europe in the dawning is the tables provided by the its. In Davos a series of political leaders lined up to proclaim the gravity of the situation. For Manuel Valls, the French prime minister, the refugee exodus from the Syrian Arab Republic poses an existential risk to the EU; Mark Rutte, his Dutch counterpart, warned that it may be only a matter of weeks before the era of Schengen border-free travel in the collapses. Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, called for a Marshall plan for the EU’s neighbours.

……………..

I was going to write – “critics and supporters of the European dream.” But there is no longer any dream, and that is in some ways the the biggest problem of all. Today’s politicians are in thrall to a conception of themselves as short-term managers of events rather than as strategists governing for the long term. Crisis mode has become the norm, and the events have emerged to fit that model. Stepping back and thinking about the EU’s long-term evolution is now almost impossible. Yet never has it been more needed. If 200 years ago, for the architects of the post-Napoleonic peace, Europe was a slogan, a set of principles in search of the institutional form, today it is (a) a set of organisations in search of guiding principles.

(A) the longer-term assessment would start with the founders of the (western) European co-operation in the late 1940s. They did not contemplate integration as a way to supersede the nation-states; rather, they welcomed the revival of the nation-states and saw the co-operation as a way to help them flourish. Integration was not only unprecedented but also modest in scope. Economies flourished: the growth was high, the multinational company in low and exchange controls curtailed cross-border capital flows, enabling governments to support managed capitalism through fiscal policy and strategic investment. It was in this era, so different in its core values of from today, that the political capital was laid down for Europe, which the union is now spending so fast.

………………

How to change and a new conception of democracy, in which the national parliaments were many UN-monitored carefully by judges and central bankers as supposedly independent guarantors of fiscal probity. The creation of a common currency, the euro, the intensified this mistrust of the parliaments, but nobody cared much before 2008 because growth was good and there was enough to go round.

Now the money has dried up, what can the EU’s defenders say? That it provides the peace? Voters take that for granted. That the euro remains strong? (A) the great political project will never flourish is monetary stability alone. That the EU encourages growth? Hardly. Democracy? Not when Europe is identified with (a) the fiscal regime enforced by constitutional lawyers and the central bankers that the inside of the millions forever consigned to the joblessness: an inflation rate of the EU with an 0.1 per cent and (a) the youth of the multinational company rate of over 20 per cent is a body that, to put it crudely, prioritises the old and the rich. No dream there unless something changes fast.

It is no longer in supporting the union but in proposing resistance to it that nationalist politicians that the chance to burnish their democratic credentials. The union faces a deep crisis of institutional legitimacy “.

…………..

The slogan of “ever closer union” should be replaced by a much more self-critical approach to what the union has achieved in the past 40 years, with the institutional foundation for the embraced, rather than of the fungus as a mark of failure.

The EU’s founders grew up through the depression, war and occupation. Their successors, who did not, black now think afresh about the continent and its needs. The past holds an important lesson: the integration prospered when growth and employment mattered more than unfettered capital movements and when fiscal policy, counted for more than monetary policy.

Today’s leaders will also need to discover something of the farsightedness of earlier generations. Like them, they will need to show that the union can help the nations, not hurt them, and that capitalism and democracy can be reconciled. This time they have to do it in a globalising world and in a union with five times more members than the original group. It will take a real effort of historical imagination and reinvention. But without it, the EU is living is borrowed time.

The writer is a professor of history at Columbia University and the author of ” Governing the World: the History of an Idea ‘

NB!

Letter to the Editor of the “Journal of Comparative Economics” by Ü.E.

Sir – Paul r. Gregory, Philipp J.H. Schröder and Konstantin’m  in the brilliant paper:

“Rational dictators and the killing of innocents: Data from Stalin’s archives”

have correctly posited a classical decision theoretic rational Bayesian stochastic/choice model of the terrorist dictatorship to explain the tendency of dictators to repress innocent citizens. This model adequately demonstrates that, when the quality of information about the regime enemies is low, a rational dictator will knowingly/”rationally” kill and imprison citizens who are not real enemies.

But as we know from the many and many documents (e.g. the Mitrokhin Archives) and studies (e.g. “Estonia 1940-1945”, Tallinn, 2006 1333 p, and the “White Book” Tallinn 2005 171 p (* *)) – under both Stalin and Hitler’s regimes) and four other multiple biographies etc – the lower coordinators (generals, governors, administrators, managers etc) in the hierarchy and dictatorship including satellite dictators etc were commanded to behave strictly acting irrationally , make contradictory statements, the demagogic implement inconsistent laws, were prescribed quotas.txt of eliminations and deportations of the citizens etc. By the way a class of analogical historical problems – e.g. from Prof. P. Ramazzoti (2005, privately):

“” “ In Aeschylus ‘ Oresteia, Agamemnon is forced to choose between losing his army or losing his daughter. He is therefore forced to link the two previously independent sub-systems: the sub-system that defines his family relations and the sub-system that defines his military/political relations. The two sub-systems involve the very clear rules: defend your family, on the one hand; defend your kingdom, on the other. The two rules turn out to be inconsistent under the specific circumstances finds Agamemnon to himself in. ”

And last but not least – for the Stalin’s paradigms the classical set of “innocent citizens” may not be the sufficiently reliable and valid research instrument – as in those under the absolutely positively paradigms citizens have some kind or rate of guiltiness (e.g. at least relatives abroad, the ancestors of the rich or have served other regimes etc.).

Understandably in these situations the rational choice theories would certainly not adequately describe/model of reality: in these circumstances may be that formalized modelling by Zadeh’s fuzzy sets and logic (1965) should be more appropriate (maybe therewith involving complex numbers etc): as there are in Zadeh’s idiosyncratic semantics (contradictory to the classical set of theories) the membership rate functions – à la membership rates of the families or the peoples in the both sets – membership rates in the the set of innocents and in the set enemies of the regime, and therefore this “allows” publicly somehow to justify the repressions/eliminations of innocents and certain to have mercy upon some enemies – for the glory of the godlike dictator.

(*)  The Journal of Comparative Economics Volume 39, Issue 1 , March 2011, Pages 34-42.

(**) http://tallinn.ester.ee/search ~ S7 * est?/.b2042174/.b2042174/1, 1, 1, (B)/l856 ~ b2042174 & FF = & 1, 0, 1, 0

 

NB! BOOK AVAILABLE from January 2016

“SUVESÕDA HARJUMAAL 1941” (648 p)

Author: HERBERT LINDMÄE

Prof. Lindmäe’s ninth (sic! created) the book on this topic, and could be like the summary of the guerrilla war against the Soviet Army in 1941, which grabbed the all counties in Estonia. After 14 in June 1941, the barbaric and massive deportation of the Estonian Population to Siberia, broke out at the nation, the military leader of the opposition to the spontaneous Soviets. The whole of the Nation had been covered by the resistance-is-the best evidence of the fact that the Estonian People had not been in any way free willingly joined in the 1940s in the Soviet Union, a terrorist.

With numerous facts and many of the sources (> 700) this BOOK gives an overview of the true and sound narrative of the Estonian victories to achieve independence. In the Harjumaa County and in Tallinn, where casualties have been especially large – and by Prof. Lindmäe the very precise factually rich information on the fate of the Estonian citizens in this Region in these times is extremely valuable historically as well politically and presently extremely actual for also. …

By P. Varju

(automatic translations)

January 18, 2016 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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