Ülo Ennuste Economics

papers and articles in wordpress

Progressive papers

Kubiszewski, Ida; Robert Costanza, Carol Franco, Philip Lawn,, John Talberth,

Tim Jackson, Camille Aylmer (2013) „GDP: Measuring and achieving global genuine progress“ – Ecological Economics 93: 57–68.

Keywords:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI)

Well-being

Happiness

Biocapacity

Ecological Footprint

Gini coefficients

Human Development Index (HDI)

Life Satisfaction

Beyond GDP

Global progress

Abstract

While global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has increased more than three-fold since 1950, economic welfare, as estimated by the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), has actually decreased since 1978. We synthesized estimates of GPI over the 1950–2003 time period for 17 countries for which GPI has been estimated. These 17 countries contain 53% of the global population and 59% of the global GDP. We compared GPI with Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Human Development Index (HDI), Ecological Footprint, Biocapacity, Gini coefficient,

and Life Satisfaction scores. Results show a significant variation among these countries, but some major trends. We also estimated a global GPI/capita over the 1950–2003 period. Global GPI/capita peaked in 1978, about the same time that global Ecological Footprint exceeded global Biocapacity. Life Satisfaction in almost all countries has also not improved significantly since 1975. Globally, GPI/capita does not increase beyond a GDP/capita of

around $7000/capita. If we distributed income more equitably around the planet, the current world GDP ($67 trillion/yr) could support 9.6 billion people at $7000/capita. While GPI is not the perfect economic welfare indicator, it is a far better approximation than GDP. Development policies need to shift to better account for real welfare and not merely GDP growth.

© 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NB: This GPI concept is still fragmental and not adequate as National Sustainability Factor indicator – National Macro-Assets (Capital Stocks: Human Capital, National Costly Institutional Capital etc) are missing: so some kind of dual complex indicator should be designed.

 

Russ, Meir (2016) „The probable foundations of sustainabilism: Information, energy and entropy based definition of capital, Homo Sustainabiliticus and the need for a “new gold” – Ecological Economics 130: 328–338.

 

a b s t r a c t

this conceptual, interdisciplinary paper will start with an introduction to the new-networked knowledge-based global economy and the importance of intellectual and, specifically, human, capital. Next, an advanced definition of human and other forms of capital using information, energy and entropy will be introduced. This will be followed by a discussion of the premises framing the study of economics and will focus on the role of law in the economy. Afterwards, the paper will suggest the addition of a new model of humans that should serve as the base for the concept of law, the homo sustainabiliticus. Ensuing this discussion and consistent with the newly proposed definition of capital, a proposal for a new currency (“new gold”) will be offered. This proposal suggests viewing usable, renewable energy, knowledge and data as the most important assets for the 21st century

and is seen as the building block for the new sustainabilistic  economy.

© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Economics: This paper builds on and significantly enhances a chapter by Russ, M. (2014b).

E-mail address: russm@uwgb.edu.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.07.013

 

NB: Fragmental  in the sense of hybrid war and aggressive international political and moral risk and anxieties situations (Coetzee  and Katz 2015 and Ott and Ennuste 1996).

 

Brada, Josef C., Ali M. Kutan and Goran Vukšić (2009) The Costs of Moving Money across Borders and the Volume of Capital Flight: The Case of Russia and Other CIS Countries.  EMG Working Paper Series, WP-EMG-28-2009.

„The residual method estimates capital flight indirectly, using balance of payment and international asset data. It weighs the country’s sources of funds, as given by the net increase in external debt and the net inflow of foreign investment against the uses of these funds as given by the current account deficit and the change in foreign reserves. If the recorded sources are greater than the recorded uses then there is capital flight from the country. Thus

 

Capital Flight = ΔED + NFI – CA – ΔR (Eq. 1)

 

where ΔED is the change in the stock of gross external debt, NFI is the net foreign investment inflow, CA is the current account deficit and ΔR is the change in the stock of official foreign reserves.“*

„The residual method estimates capital flight indirectly, using balance of payment and international asset data. It weighs the country’s sources of funds, as given by the net increase in external debt and the net inflow of foreign investment against the uses of these funds as given by the current account deficit and the change in foreign reserves. If the recorded sources are greater than the recorded uses then there is capital flight from the country. Thus

 

Capital Flight = ΔED + NFI – CA – ΔR (Eq. 1)

 

where ΔED is the change in the stock of gross external debt, NFI is the net foreign investment inflow, CA is the current account deficit and ΔR is the change in the stock of official foreign reserves.“

 

NB: The residual method estimates capital flight indirectly – including not recorded transfers. In 2009 the political risks have been in CIS Countries much lower as nowadays in the hybrid war conditions. Randomisation should be introduced.

 

 

Le, Quan Vu; Paul J. Zak (2016) „Political risk and capital flight“ – Journal of International Money and Finance 25 (2006) 308e329.

 

Abstract

Capital flight often amounts to a substantial proportion of GDP in developing countries. This paper

presents a portfolio choice model that relates capital flight to return differentials, risk aversion, and three

types of risk: economic risk, political instability, and policy variability. Estimating the equilibrium capital

flight equation for a panel of 45 developing countries over 16 years, all three types of risk have a statistically

significant impact on capital flight. Quantitatively, political instability is the most important factor

associated with capital flight. We also identify several political factors that reduce capital flight, ostensibly

by signalling that market-oriented reforms are imminent.

_ 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

JEL classification: F3; P16

Keywords: Capital flight; Economic risk; Political instability; Policy uncertainty; Portfolio choice

 

„Why is it that when an American puts money abroad it is called ‘‘foreign investment’’ and

when an Argentinean does the same it is called ‘‘capital flight’’? Why is it that when an

American company puts 30 percent of its equity abroad it is called ‘‘strategic diversification’’

and when a Bolivian businessman puts only 4 percent abroad it is called ‘‘lack of

confidence’’?

Stephen Charles Kanitz in The Wall Street Journal, September 21, 1984, p. 45.

 

NB: Only economic/financial capital flight is taken into consideration: for modelling sustainability stability probability more important may be human capital flight – and – national institutional and knowledge structure distortions.

 

Ennuste, Ülo (2007):

https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2008/11/09/ulo-ennustes-speech-at-the-inauguration-of-honorary-doctors-of-international-university-audentes-september-26-2007/

„But in the case of complex politico-economic double systems, these issues are much more complicated, e.g., the complexity should stay in the comparison results (quotients) explicitly: in these mechanisms the political and economic policies should be analysed in one complex but still separately, as side payments for political effects (probably nonmonetary) should be decided by political coordinators and economic transfers by economic regulators.

Still, there may be a probability that the curse of complexity may be eliminated and problems rigorously (not heuristically) solved by the help complex numbers as there seems to be a certain affinity between complex numbers and vector plains where Cauchy-Schwartz inequality exists, plus the phenomenon that complex numbers are divided but vectors not. Analogously, as Arrow’s Prisoner-Dilemma is vanishing in the Harshaniy’s Bayesian Game. But, additionally, the imaginary unit i=sqrt(-1) may play a complicated role as the indicator of the “other world” for the real economic world.

In brief: The rationality connecting imaginary units with a dual world policy regulation mechanisms may be schematically grounded on the reasoning: 1) it is convenient to model complex policies on the bases of vector-like constructions, 2) for efficient comparison of complex policies mechanisms should carry out division procedures of policies with vector-like quotients, 3) one such convenient division procedure is well-defined for complex numbers.

Where the Im axis may be interpreted as the “imaginary political” coordinate, Re as the economic coordinate, real numbers x and y may be e.g. the Blackwellian iformativeness measures of the announcement powers (e.g. dependent on the economic weight of the announcement and importance/credibility of the actor) E.g.: hypothetically it would be appropriate to model the side payments sign calculation for the agents on the basis quotient:

(cos j+isin j) r/r*

where r* is fixed real (=x*>0, y*=0) denoting the module of mainstream real economic truth, i the imaginary unit, the module of the actors in formativeness power, and j is the angel of rotation of the agents announcement from economic truthfulness.”

 

P.S.:  Adequate Sustainability Stability Probability=F(Regressors(Activities/Flows; Assets/Stocks); Conditions(Uncertainties/Risks; etc)).

November 8, 2016 - Posted by | Uncategorized

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