Ülo Ennuste Economics

papers and articles in wordpress

Draft (20.VII 17 – do not quote)

Ennuste, Ülo (2017) Small Nation-State Catastrophic Risks and  Macro Shocks Bayesian Modelling Bibliography from Angle of Academic Macro-Economics and Social-Cybernetics in Post-GDP and Social-Cybernetics Informal Concepts and with Operational Research Kit – for the Retrospective Modelling  of Estonian National inter Generational Evolution in the 1939-1991 Occupations and in  Hybrid War 2007-2017 and for Prospective Long Rrange Optimal Adaptiv Strategy Projection as Member-State of the EU and NATO

This short Bibliography contains … entries, including book reviews (e.g. monographies by Prof R.A. Posner) and publications in the popular literature of Big Authors (e.g. John le Carre and J. M. Coetzee).  Where possible, I have included links to open-access (subscription-free) web versions of the entries and occasionally abstracts for spreading academic results (not always open-access cases e.g.: by Chichlinsky etc).

I presume that I have overlooked some literature. Please send me any and all suggestions for further entries to existing ones via email: ylo.ennuste@mail.ee (Futher preliminary Intoductory Remarks:  https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/do-not-quote-18-xi-16/ )

Acemoglu, D.; S. Johnson, J.A. Robinson (2005) „Institutions as the fundamental cause of long-run growth“ In: Aghion, P., Durlauf, S. (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth. North-Holland, pp. 385–472.

Ahlerup, Pelle; Gustav Hansson (2011) „Nationalism and government effectiveness“ – Journal of Comparative Economics Volume 39, Issue 3: 431–451.

Akerlof, Georg, Robert Shiller (2015) Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, ISBN: 9781400873265 Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ and Kindle Edition.

Applebaum, A. (2014), ‘War in Europe is not a hysterical idea” The Washington

Post, 29 August 2014. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.

com/opinions/anne-applebaum-war-in-europe-is-not-a-hystericalidea/

2014/08/29/815f29d4-2f93-11e4-bb9b-997ae96fad33_story.html

Alston, L. J. (1996) „Empirical work in institutional economics: an overview“ In: Alston, L.J., Eggertsson, T., North, D.C. (Eds.), Empirical Studies in Institutional Change. Cambridge University Press, pp. 25–30.

Aoki, M. (1996) „Towards a comparative institutional analysis: motivations and some tentative theorizing“  Jpn. Econ. Rev. 47 (1), 1–19.

Aoki, M. (2001) Towards a Comparative Institutional Analysis. MIT Press.

Azrieli, Yaron; Ehud Lehrer (2008) “The value of a stochastic information structure” – Games and Economic Behavior 63 (2008) 679–693.

Barelli, Paulo; John Duggan (2015) „Purification of Bayes Nash equilibrium with correlated types and interdependent payoffs“ –  Games and Economic Behavior 94 (2015) 1–14.

Baum, Seth D. (2009) “Global Catastrophic Risks” (book review). Risk Analysis, vol. 29, no. 1: 155-156:

http://sethbaum.com/ac/2009_Rev-GCR.pdf

Blattman, Christopher; Julian Jamison, Tricia Koroknay-Palicz, Katherine Rodrigues, Margaret Sheridan (2016) „Measuring the measurement error: A method to qualitatively validate survey data“ – Journal of Development Economics 120 (2016) 99–112.

Brada, Josef C., Ali M. Kutan and Goran Vukšić (2009) The Costs of Moving Money across Borders and the Volume of Capital Flight: The Case of Russia and Other CIS Countries.  EMG Working Paper Series, WP-EMG-28-2009.

Bretschneider et al. (1989) “Political and organizational influences on accuracy of forecasting state government revenues” – International Journal of Forecasting 5 307-319.

Brutus, L.; Ü. Ennuste  (1965) Un domaine d´experimentation economique“ – Democratie Nouvelle, Mars, 89 – 94.

BUCHANAN, JOHN; DOMINIC HEESANG CHAI and SIMON DEAKIN (2014) „Empirical analysis of legal institutions and institutional change: multiple-methods approaches and their application to corporate governance research“ – Journal of Institutional Economics / Volume 10 / Issue 01 / March 2014, pp 1-20.

Buchholz, Wolfgang; Michael Sch,⁎ymura (2012) „Expected utility theory and the tyranny of catastrophic risks“ – Ecological Economics 77: 234–239.

Abstract

Expected Utility theory is not only applied to individual choices but also to social decisions, e.g. in cost–benefit

analysis of climate change policymeasures that affect future generations and hence incorporate an ethical dimension.

In this context the crucial question arises whether EU theory is able to deal with “catastrophic risks”, i.e. risks

of high, but very unlikely losses, in an ethically appealing way. In this paper we show that this is not the case.

Rather, if in the framework of EU theory a plausible level of risk aversion is assumed, a “tyranny of catastrophic

risk” (TCR) emerges, i.e. project evaluation is dominated by the catastrophic event. Or, contrary to that, with

low degrees of risk aversion, the catastrophic risk eventually has no impact at all (“negligence of catastrophic

risk” (NCR)) which is ethically not acceptable as well.

© 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chanel, Oliver; Graciela Chichilnisky (2013) „Valuing life: Experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events“ – Ecological Economics 85: 198–205: doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.03.004

A b s t r a c t

Global environmental phenomena like climate change, major extinction events or flutype pandemics can have catastrophic consequences. By properly assessing the outcomes involved – especially those concerning human life – economic theory of choice under uncertainty is expected to help people take the best decision. However, the widely used expected utility theory values life in terms of the low probability of death someone

would be willing to accept in order to receive extra payment. Common sense and experimental evidence refute this way of valuing life, and here we provide experimental evidence of people’s unwillingness to accept a low probability of death, contrary to expected utility predictions. This work uses new axioms of choice defined by Chichilnisky (2000), especially an axiom that allows extreme responses to extreme events, and the choice criterion that they imply (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2004). The implied decision criteria are a combination of expected utility

with extreme responses, and seem more consistent with observations.

© 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chichilnisky, Graciela (2009) „The topology of fear“ – Journal of Mathematical Economics, 45: 807–816: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jmateco

Ab s t r a c t

For many years experimental observations have raised questions about the rationality of

economic agents—for example, the Allais Paradox or the Equity Premium Puzzle. The problem is a narrow notion of rationality that disregards fear. This article extends the notion

of rationality with new axioms of choice under uncertainty and the decision criteria they

imply (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social

Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice

under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky,

G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.,

Chicester).

In the absence of catastrophes, the old and the newapproach coincide, and both

lead to standard expected utility. A sharp difference emerges when facing rare events with

important consequences, or catastrophes. Theorem 1 establishes that a classic axiom of

choice under uncertainty – Arrow’s Monotone Continuity axiom, or its relatives introduced

by DeGroot, Villegas, Hernstein and Milnor – postulate rational behavior that is ‘insensitive’

to rare events as defined in (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable

development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic

approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1.

John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). Theorem 2 replaces this axiom with another that allows

extreme responses to extreme events, and characterizes the implied decision criteria as a

combination of expected utility with extremal responses.

Theorems 1 and 2 offer a new understanding of rationality consistent with previously unexplained observations about decisions involving rare and catastrophic events, decisions involving fear, the Equity Premium Puzzle, ‘jump diffusion’ processes and ‘heavy tails’, and it agrees with (Debreu, G., 1953. Valuation equilibrium and Pareto optimum. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 40, 588–592) formulation of market behavior and his proof of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand theorem.

© 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Grechuk, Bogdan; Michael Zabarankin (2014) „Risk averse decision making under catastrophic risk“ – European Journal of Operational Research 239: 166–176.

A b s t r a c t

A nonstandard probabilistic setting for modeling of the risk of catastrophic events is presented. It allows random variables to take on infinitely large negative values with non-zero probability, which correspond to catastrophic consequences unmeasurable in monetary terms, e.g. loss of human lives. Thanks to this extension, the safety-first principle is proved to be consistent with traditional axioms on a preference relation, such as monotonicity, continuity, and risk aversion. Also, a robust preference relation is

introduced, and an example of a monotone robust preference relation, sensitive to catastrophic events in the sense of Chichilnisky (2002), is provided. The suggested setting is demonstrated in evaluating nuclear power plant projects when the probability of a catastrophe is itself a random variable. _ 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chang, H.-J. (2011) „Institutions and economic development: theory, policy and history“  J. Inst. Econ. 7 (4), 473–498.

Chichilnisky, Graciela (2010) “The foundations of statistics with black swans” – Mathematical Social Sciences Volume 59 Issue 2: 184-192:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2009.09.007Get rights and content

Abstract

We extend the foundation of statistics to integrate rare events that are potentially catastrophic, called black swans.These include natural hazards, regime change in complex systems, market crashes, catastrophic climate change and major episodes of species extinction. Classic statistics and physics treat such events as ‘outliers’ and often disregard them. We propose a new axiomatization of subjective probability requiring equal treatment for rare and frequent events, and characterize the likelihoods or subjective probabilities that the axioms imply. These coincide with countably additive measures and yield normal distributions when the sample has no black swans. When the sample includes black swans, the new likelihoods are represented by a combination of countable and finitely additive measures with both parts present. The axioms were introduced in Chichilnisky (2000, 2002); they extend the axiomatic foundations of Savage (1954)Villegas (1964) and Arrow (1971) and they are valid for bounded and unbounded samples (Chichilnisky, 1996b). The finitely additive measures assign more weight to rare events than do standard distributions and in that sense explain the persistent observation of power laws and ‘heavy tails’ that eludes classic theory.

Coetzee, J. M. and Arabella Kurtz (2015) The Good Story: Exchanges on Truth, Fiction and Psychotherapy. Harvill Sacker, London: 198.

Coetzee, J. M. (2014) The childhood of Jesus. London, Vintage Books: 329. 

Communist Crimes (Polish legal concepts): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communistcrimes_(Polish_legal_concept)

 CommunistCrimes.org: http://www.communistcrimes.org/en/Database/Estonia/Estonia-Communist-Era

Conti, Maurizio; Giovanni Sulis (2016?) „Human capital, employment protection and growth in Europe“ – Journal of Comparative Economics (in Press).

Grechuk, Bogdan; Michael Zabarankin (2014) „Risk averse decision making under catastrophic risk“ – European Journal of Operational Research 239: 166–176.

A b s t r a c t

A nonstandard probabilistic setting for modeling of the risk of catastrophic events is presented. It allows

random variables to take on infinitely large negative values with non-zero probability, which correspond

to catastrophic consequences unmeasurable in monetary terms, e.g. loss of human lives. Thanks to this

extension, the safety-first principle is proved to be consistent with traditional axioms on a preference

relation, such as monotonicity, continuity, and risk aversion. Also, a robust preference relation is

introduced, and an example of a monotone robust preference relation, sensitive to catastrophic events

in the sense of Chichilnisky (2002), is provided. The suggested setting is demonstrated in evaluating

nuclear power plant projects when the probability of a catastrophe is itself a random variable.

_ 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

 

Diamond, Peter; Emmanuel Saez (AUGUST 2011) The Case for a Progressive Tax: From Basic Research to Policy Recommendations. CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 3548 CATEGORY 1: PUBLIC FINANCE: http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/diamond-saezJEP11opttax.pdf

Djankov, Simeon; Elena Nikolova , Jan Zilinsky (2016) „The happiness gap in Eastern Europe“  – Journal of Comparative Economics,

 DOSI, GIOVANNI and LUIGI MARENGO (2015) „The dynamics of organizational structures and performances under diverging distributions of knowledge and different power structures“ – Journal of Institutional Economics, 11, pp 535-559: http://journals.cambridge.org/JOI, IP address: 90.190.39.14 on 10 Jun 2016

EESTI  STATISTIKA  AASTARAAMAT  2016/STATISTICAL YEARBOOK of ESTONIA 2016 (2016) http://www.stat.ee/277639

 The Economist (2014)”The war in Ukraine: reversal of fortune” The Economist

Briefing, 6–12 September 2014, vol. 412, no. 8903, pp 21–24.

The Economist (2016) ”How to measure prosperity”: April 30:

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21697834-gdp-bad-gauge-material-well-being-time-fresh-approach-how-measure-prosperity

Ennuste, Ülo (1969) “Uncertainty, Information and Decomposition in the Planning of a Production System” – Economics of Planning, 9(3): 258 – 266:

https://springerlink3.metapress.com/content/apt25151401mm553/resource-secured/?target=fulltext.pdf&sid=fvfx4a45bfltmq55fcc0xk55&sh=www.springerlink.com

– – (1989) “Some Models of Stochastic Planning Mechanisms”- Finnish Economic Papers, 2:116-124: http://econpapers.repec.

org/article/fepjournl/v_3a2_3ay_3a 1989_3ai_3a2_3ap_3a116-124.htm

http://econpapers.repec.org/article/fepjournl/v_3a2_3ay_3a1989_3ai_3a2_3ap_3a116-http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/news/news-releases?p_p_id=101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_state=normal&p_p_mode=view&p_p_col_id=column-2&p_p_col_count=1&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_delta=20&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_keywords=&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_advancedSearch=false&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_andOperator=true&p_r_p_564233524_resetCur=false&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_cur=    

124.htm

– – (1993) ” An outline for estimating long-term economic damage by means of analogy” –  Eesti TA Toimetised. Humanitaar- ja Sotsiaalteadused, 42, 1, 1-4.

– and Rajasalu, T. (2002) “Critical Probability of the EU Eastern Enlargement Project’s Institutional Failure: Aspects of Calibrated Economic Impacts of the Failure” In: Aksel Kirch and Juhan Sillaste (eds.) Monitoring Preparations of Transition Countries for EU-Accession. 4th International Conference 4-6 October, 2002 Pärnu, Estonia, The Institute for European Studies, Tallinn, 212-227: http://www.ies.ee/iesp/ennuste.pdf

– – (2003) “A Linear Planning Analysis of Institutional Structure in the

Economy”:  Policy Documentation Centre –

http://pdc.ceu.hu/archive/00001564/01/linear.PDF

– – (2007) “Dual Market-Transition in Estonia 1987-2006: Institutional Mechanism Analysis Approach” In: “EUROPE AFTER HISTORICAL ENLARGEMENT. The Proceedings of 5th Audentes Spring Conference, Apr. 28 2007, Tallinn, 60-126: http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No3/

— (2008a) „Speech“ :

https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2008/11/09/ulo-ennustes-speech-at-the-inauguration-of-honorary-doctors-of-international-university-audentes-september-26-2007/

– – (2008b) “Synthetic conceptions of implementing mechanisms design for public socio-economic information structure: illustrative Estonian examples”- Socio-Economic and Institutional Environment: Harmonisation in the EU 9–39:

http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No4/Ennuste.pdf

–  – (2014) “ Towards Special Methodological Problems of Macro-Optimal Sociocybernetic International Economic Sanctioning Coordination Modelling: Introductory Remarks oPreliminary Postulates and Conjectures” – Baltic Journal of European Studies Tallinn University of Technology (ISSN 2228-0588), Vol. 4, No. 2 (17), 150-158:  http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT

EC (2014), ‘Council Implementing Regulation (EU) No 961/2014 of 8

September 2014 implementing Regulation (EU) No 269/2014 concerning

restrictive measures in respect of actions undermining or threatening the

territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine,’ L271,

Official Journal of the EU, 12 September 2014.

The Economist (16.VII 2016) “Econometrics: It is not easy to compare the size of economies – even across the Channel”.

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21702184-it-not-easy-compare-size-economieseven-across-channel-econometrics

Estonia 1940-1945 (2006) – Estonian International Commission for the Investigation of Crimes Against Humanity, Tallinn: 1337pp.

ETLA (1993) ESTONIA AND FINLAND – A RETROSPECTIVE SOCIOECONOMIC COMPARISON (Edited by Olev Lugus and Pentti Vardia)The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, Helsinki: 404.

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Eurostat (2014) ‘EU Sanctions against Russia over Ukraine crisis,’ European

Union Newsroom Highlights. Retrieved from http://europa.eu/newsroom/

highlights/special-coverage/eu_sanctions/index_en.htm

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Eurostat (110/2016 – 6 June 2016) Migrant integration in the EU labour market in 2015:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/news/news-releases?p_p_id=101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_state=normal&p_p_mode=view&p_p_col_id=column-2&p_p_col_count=1&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_delta=20&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_keywords=&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_advancedSearch=false&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_andOperator=true&p_r_p_564233524_resetCur=false&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_cur=2

Eurostat (2017) Final report of the expert group on quality of life indicators 2017 edition: 119 (Raportis kahjuks puudub rahvusvaheliste ja rahvustevaheliste konfliktide riskide mõju hindamine elukvaliteedile – seda eriti hübriidsõja tingimustes ning kus intensiivselt kasutatakse riikidevahelisi küberrünnakuid juba aastast 2007 ja isegi võimalikud tuumarünnakud pole täielikult välistatud):

 http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-statistical-reports/-/KS-FT-17-004?inheritRedirect=true&redirect=%2Feurostat%2Fpublications%2Fstatistical-reports

Fleurbaey, Marc; Stéphane Zuber (2017) „Fair management of social risk“ – Journal ofEconomicTheory, 169): 666–706:  http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jet

Abstract

We provide a general method for extending social preferences defined for riskless economic environments to the context of risk and uncertainty. We apply the method to the problems of managing unemployment allowances (in the context of macroeconomic fluctuations) and catastrophic risks (in the context of climate change). The method guarantees expost fairness and pays attention to individuals’ risk attitudes, while ensuring rationality properties for social preferences, revisiting basic ideas from Harsanyi’s celebrated ag-gregation theorem (Harsanyi, 1955). The social preferences that we obtain do not always take the form of an expected utility criterion, but they always satisfy statewise dominance. When we require social preferences to be expected utilities, we obtain a variant of Harsanyi’s result under a weak version of the Pareto principle, and a maximin criterion under a stronger Pareto requirement, whenever the expost social ordering does not depend on people’s risk attitudes. We also show how non-expected utility individual preferences can be accommodated in the approach.

©2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

P.S.: prof Kallas’ele meeldetuletuseks et nt ülaltoodu alusel sotsiaal-küberneetiliselt näib et kremlistide ratsionaalsus on inimkonnale katastroofiks – nagu oli ka Stalin’i ratsionaalsus:  vt nt Gregory, Paul R., Philipp J.H. Schröder, Konstantin Sonin (2011) „Rational dictators and the killing of innocents: Data from Stalin’s archives“ – Journal of Comparative Economics 39 (2011) 34–42.  Ja  Chanel, Oliver; Graciela Chichilnisky (2013) „Valuing life: Experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events“ – Ecological Economics 85: 198–205: doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.03.004

Forrester, Jay W. (1998) Designing the FutureUniversidad de Sevilla Sevilla, Spain, December 15, 1998, Copyright © 1998 by Jay W. Forrester, Permission granted for copying and electronic distribution for non-commercial educational purposes.

Fukuyama, Francis (2014) Political order and political decay. FARRAR, STRAUS AND GIROUX,  NY: 658.

 Gagliardi, Francesca (2016) „Institutions and economic change“ – Journal of Comparative Economics 0 0 0 (2016) 1–3  (in Press).

Giegerenzer, Gerd (2014) Risk Savvy. ALLEN LANE: 322.

Gregory, Paul R., Philipp J.H. Schröder, Konstantin Sonin (2011) „Rational dictators and the killing of innocents: Data from Stalin’s archives“ – Journal of Comparative Economics 39 (2011) 34–42.

 HANSEN, BRADLEY A. and MARY ESCHELBACH HANSEN (2016) „The historian’s craft and economics“ – Journal of Institutional Economics / Volume 12 / Issue 02 / June 2016, pp 349-370.

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Hodgson, G. (2007) “Evolutionary and Institutional Economics as the New Mainstream?” – Evolutionary Institutional Economics Review, 4(1): 7-25.

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Kahan, Dan M., Asheley Landrum, Katie Carpenter, Laura Helft, Kathleen Hall Jamieson (2017) „Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing“ – Political Psychology“ –  38: 179–199, doi:10.1111/pops.12396, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pops.12396/epdf

Kasparov, G. (2014) „It’s a War, Stupid!” Times, 30 August 2014: http://time.com/3227869/garry-kasparov-its-a-war-stupid/

Kirch, Aksel; Marika Kirch, Tarmo Tuisk, Hanna-Hulda Reinkort and Aimar Altosaar (2008)Etics, Emics, Estonians and Russians in Contemporary Estonia: Is the Past still Dominating the Present?”

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KUNČIČ, ALJAŽ (2014) „Institutional quality dataset“ –  Journal of Institutional Economics / Volume 10 / Issue 01 / March 2014, pp 135-161:  http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1744137413000192 (About DOI

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Matsushima, Hitoshi (2008) „Role of honesty in full implementation“ – Journal of Economic Theory 139 2008  353 – 359: www.elsevier.com/locate/jet

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Experimentations Implementing Monotone Systems Theory in Bargaining Games, Data

Analysis, and for Cosmological Speculations.

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Additional information, including the data used in this country note, can be found at: http://www.oecd.org/statistics/Better-Life-Initiative-2016-country-notes-data.xlsx

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Phelps, Edmund (2006) http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2006/advanced.html

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Robert S. Pindyck, Robert S. and Neng Wang (2013) „The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes“ – American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 5(4): 306–339: http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.5.4.306

Abstract

How likely is a catastrophic event that would substantially reduce

the capital stock, GDP, and wealth? How much should society be

willing to pay to reduce the probability or impact of a catastrophe?

We answer these questions and provide a framework for policy

analysis using a general equilibrium model of production, capital

accumulation, and household preferences. Calibrating the model to

economic and financial data, we estimate the mean arrival rate of

shocks and their size distribution, the tax on consumption society

would accept to limit the maximum size of a catastrophic shock, and

the cost to insure against its impact. (JEL D81, E22, E23, E32, G22,

H25, Q54)

Posner, Richard A. (2005) “Catastrophic risks, resource allocation, and homeland security” – Journal of Homeland Security, October:

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Rajasalu, Teet (2003) “Indicators of economic freedom and economic structure as determinants of growth and convergence in enlarging EU and priorities for Estonia”:  In: Essays in Estonian transformation economics, 2003, Tallinn: 9-32.

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Resiliency Authors (2016)“Making the Eurozone more resilient: What is needed now and what can wait?“:

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Roberts, Patrick (2008) “Catastrophe: Risk and Response, by Richard A. Posner.” – Homeland Security Affairs 4, Article 5: https://www.hsaj.org/articles/595

Abstract

Catastrophe: Risk and Response, Richard Posner makes the case that the risk of global catastrophe is higher than most people think, and he analyzes the reasons why the U.S. under-prepares for natural, technological, and terrorist catastrophe. Attempts to mitigate the risk of catastrophe will incur heavy costs, whether economic (as in proposals to reduce the effects of climate change) or civic (as in policing reforms that infringe on civil liberties). How might the U.S. and the world weigh the extraordinary costs and uncertain future benefits of avoiding catastrophe? Posner advocates economic tools, especially cost-benefit analysis, as a guide in determining which catastrophes are worth protecting against and which are so unlikely to happen or so trivial that they are not worth the cost of defense

Russ, Meir (2016) „The probable foundations of sustainabilism: Information, energy and entropy based definition of capital, Homo Sustainabiliticus and the need for a “new gold” – Ecological Economics 130: 328–338.

A b s t r a c t

this conceptual, interdisciplinary paper will start with an introduction to the new-networked knowledge-based global economy and the importance of intellectual and, specifically, human, capital. Next, an advanced definition of human and other forms of capital using information, energy and entropy will be introduced. This will be followed by a discussion of the premises framing the study of economics and will focus on the role of law in the economy. Afterwards, the paper will suggest the addition of a new model of humans that should serve as the base for the concept of law, the homo sustainabiliticus. Ensuing this discussion and consistent with the newly proposed definition of capital, a proposal for a new currency (“new gold”) will be offered. This proposal suggests viewing usable, renewable energy, knowledge and data as the most important assets for the 21st century

and is seen as the building block for the new sustainabilistic economy.

© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Economics: This paper builds on and significantly enhances a chapter by Russ, M. (2014b).

E-mail address: russm@uwgb.edu.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.07.013

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Shao, Jia; Apostolos D. Papaioannou, Athanasios A. Pantelous (2017) „Pricing and simulating catastrophe risk bonds in a Markov-dependent environment“:

A b s t r a c t

At present, insurance companies are seeking more adequate liquidity funds to cover the insured property losses related to natural and manmade disasters. Past experience shows that the losses caused by catastrophic events, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, or hurricanes, are extremely high. An alternative method for covering these extreme losses is to transfer part of the risk to the financial markets by issuing catastrophe-linked bonds. In this paper, we propose a contingent claim model for pricing catastrophe risk bonds (CAT bonds). First, using a two-dimensional semi-Markov process, we derive analytical bond pricing formulae in a stochastic interest rate environment with aggregate claims that follow compound forms, where the claim inter-arrival times are dependent on the claim sizes. Furthermore, we obtain explicit CAT bond prices formulae in terms of four different payofffunctions. Next, we estimate and calibrate the parameters of the pricing models us- ing catastrophe loss data provided by Property Claim Services from 1985 to 2013. Finally, we use Monte Carlo simulations to analyse the numerical results obtained with the CAT bond pricing formulae. ©2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

STIGLITZ, Joseph E., Amartya SEN, Jean-Paul FITOUSSI (2010) Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress:

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Белая книга: о потерях, причиненных народу Эстонии оккупациями 1940-1991 / Государственная комиссия по расследованию репрессивной политики оккупационных сил; [перевод с эстонского: Андрей Бабаджан, Татьяна Верхоустинская, Эйнар Вяря; ORURK-24. Kirjastus Ilo. Tallinn, 2005: http://digar.nlib.ee/digar/show/?id=1604

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A bstract

This study examines income convergence in regional GDP per capita for a sample of 269 regions within the European Union (EU) between 2003 and 2010. We use an endogenous broad capital model based on foreign direct investment (FDI) induced agglomeration economies and human capital. By applying a Markov chain approach to a new dataset that exploits micro-aggregated sub-national FDI statistics, the analysis provides insights into regional income growth dynamics within the EU. Our results indicate a weak process of overall income convergence across EU regions. This does not apply to the dynamics within Central and East European countries (CEECs), where we find indications of a poverty trap. In contrast to FDI, regional human capital seems to be associated with higher income levels. However, we identify a positive interaction of FDI and human capital in their relation with income growth dynamics. Introduction Regional disparities in per capita output and income have been a concern of the European Community since its inception. The objective of reducing income inequalities has been challenged by trade liberalization following the single market program and more enhanced by the continuous integration process of new member states. While economic growth and cohesion within the European Union (EU) tend to decrease income disparities at a national level, regional inequalities have rather deepened (Kramar, 2006). In this context, the convergence/divergence issue of per capita incomes across any set of regions in the EU has attracted considerable research interest in the last decade, but the results have been mixed. Some studies suggest the existence of convergence across all European regions (Fingleton, 1997, 1999; López-Bazo et al., 1999; Votteler, 2004), while others show evidence of convergence clubs or multiple equilibriums within the income distribution (López-Bazo et al., 1999; Ertur and Le Gallo, 2003; Canova, 2004). Within an endogenous growth framework (Romer, 1986; Lucas, 1988), the accumulation of foreign direct investment (FDI) can be regarded as an important growth driver that triggers technological progress, resulting in productivity spillovers. FDI has been perceived as a key ingredient for growth and catching-up strategies by Central and East European Countries.

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