Ülo Ennuste Economics

papers and articles in wordpress

Do not quote 29.VIII 17

(30. VIII 17, Microsoft translation of *) do not quote – not crrected)

Optimal nationalism rates concept – for Post-Occupied small nation ethnically heterogeneous in the hybrid-war turbulences and adverse types  – to maximize stability of national sustainability likelihood

The most important initial citations to a planned Short Note (SN) are:

Ahlerup, Pelle; Gustav Hansson (2011) “Nationalism and government effectiveness” –  Journal of Comparative Economics Volume 39, Issue 3, September 2011, Pages 431-451.

A s t r a c t

Nation-building is believed to have a positive influence has economic and political outcomes, especially in countries with the ethnically fragmented populations. Yet nationalism, an indicator of a successful nation-building, it has been empirically linked to protectionism and intolerance, which suggests that dismal performance, is a more likely outcome. This paper empirically identifies an inverted U-shaped relationship between nationalism and government effectiveness. The results suggest that the level of nationalism in the population

is higher than optimal in most countries. It is further shown that nationalism may mitigate the negative effects of ethnic heterogeneity in the former colonies. We find no clear linkages between nationalism and trade openness.

Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NB: in the scientific literature (e.g. Fukuyama (2014)) in general, the “colonization” and “occupation” are synonymous, and in particular the targeted destruction of indigenous peoples: Kukk (2005) by the Soviet occupation in Estonia, 1940-1991 replied to the colonization of the conditions.

Ennuste, Ü.(2014), “Towards Special Methodological Problems of Macro-Economic Coordination, International Sanctioning Sociocybernetic Optimal Modelling: the Introductory” Remarks “on the Preliminary Postulates and Conjectures” – the Baltic Journal of European Studies in Tallinn University of Technology (ISSN 2228-0588), vol. 4, no. 2, (17), 150-158: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT

Modelling the “remarks”

Theoretically, the most complicated problem in the planning of collective United Nations sanctions in the EU context in this third round is the central of optimal coordination of the defensive/deterrent measures taken by the economic sanction imposing an EU Member States, as these penalty measures, projected by the transgressing against third countries imposing an national economy, are as a rule hurting the Member States ‘ economies as well — and — directly and indirectly to the different stochastic degrees. First of all, via the counter attacks by the transgressor in many ways: political, economic, military, etc. (at least in this conflict, that The Economist, 2014).

Thus, from the perspective of cybereconomics, the adequate optimization criterion has to be complex: for example, the real risk of the economic axis, the imaginary and the complementary political risk for the axis. Additionally, the complications in this model may come

into the game via third-country fuzzy logic and dictators ‘ moral hazards. And most importantly — the complexity of the problems increases as, alongside United Nations sanctions to the antagonist, the coalition the union has to introduce complementary domestic economic policies and instead of mechanisms for the minimization of the losses inflicted to the national member economies from the counter-reactions.

NB: in the case of associations and an adequate institutional coordination requires modelling of hierarchical structures (such as the reflection in the Ennuste (1989), and thus also in the endogeniseerimist of the types of negative activity level (e.g., troll and diversantide columns, etc.).

Ennuste, Ü . (1989) “Some of the Models of Stochastic Planning Mechanisms” – the Finnish Economic Papers, 2, 2, 116-124. http://econpapers.repec.org/article/fepjournl/v_3a2_3ay_3a1989_3ai_3a2_3ap_3a116-124.htm

Kholodilin, Konstantin A. and Aleksey Netsunajev (2017) in the Crimea and punishment: The impact of United Nations sanctions is the Russian and European economies. Bank of Estonia.

 Abstract

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine that started in March 2014 led to bilateral economic United Nations sanctions being imposed is each other by Russia and Western countries, including the members of the euro area. The paper investigates the impact of the United Nations sanctions on the real side of the economies of Russia and the euro area. The effects of the United Nations sanctions are analysed with a structural vector auto regression. To pin down the effect we are interested in, we include in the model, an index that measures the intensity of the United Nations sanctions. The shock of the sanction is identified and separated from the oil price shock by narrative sign restrictions. A very high probability that Russian GDP declined as a result of the United Nations sanctions. In contrast to that, the effects of the United Nations sanctions is in the euro area are limited to the real effective exchange rate adjustments.

Kukk, Kalev (2005) “Economic DamagesIn: The White Book: Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes from 1940 to 1991, the State Committee on the Investigation into the Repression Policy of Occupation, Tallinn, Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers: 141-171: http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

Maestri, Lucas (2017) “Ambiguity, optimism, and pessimism in adverse selection models,” Journal of Economic Theory, Volume 171, September 2017, Pages 64-100:

 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2017.06.004 Get the rights and

Abstract

We investigate the effect of ambiguity and ambiguity attitude is the shape and properties of the optimal contract in an adverse selection model with a continuum of types, using the NEO-additive situated in the model. We show that it necessarily features efficiency and a jump at the top and pooling at the bottom of the distribution. Conditional on the degree of ambiguity, the pooling of the section may be supplemented by (a) separating section. As a result, the ambiguity affects adversely the principal’s ability to solve the adverse selection problem and therefore the least efficient types benefit from the ambiguity with respect to the risk. Conversely, the ambiguity is detrimental to the most efficient types.

Schmid-Schmidsfelden, Hubertus and Kristina Potapova (2016) The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing: Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU. Wilfried Martens, Centre for European Studies:

https://www.google.ee/search?q=martensctre%20eu%20publications%20bear%20sheeps%20clothing%20russias%20government%20funded%20organisations

Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (2015) “Economic shocks, the civil war and ethnicity” — Journal of Development Economics 115 32-44.

StratCom COE (15. (III) 2017) StratCom laughs. In search of an analytical framework – ISBN: 978-9934-564-12-3: http://www.stratcomcoe.org/publications

Additional publications

Coomunist Crimes (the Polish legal concepts) in: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_crimes_ (Polish_legal_concept)

CommunistCrimes.org: http://www.communistcrimes.org/en/Database/Estonia/Estonia-Communist-Era

le Carré, John (2016) The Pigeon Tunnel: Stories from My Life. The Kindle Edition.

Rain Lõhmus (2017) https://geenius.ee/uudis/rain-lohmus-residentsus-on-ulehaibitud-absurd/

In parallel, such as Maestri (2017), the academic text – here the empirically Lõhmus argues that the Estonian residency, such as e-institution increases the uncertainty of the national informational and it makes a rational, regarding restrictions on the free movement of capital – whereas the negative efficiency of heterogeneous types of foreign (Rascals, trolls, etc) the increase in turbidity situations detrimental to the efforts to exploit nationalist – taking account of the national economic mechanisms errors (e.g., the oversimplified 0-profit tax and a low progressive income tax, etc. the individual insufficiently turbulence conditions)

Zack, Naomi (2009) Ethics for the Disaster. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): 164, The Kindle.

Ethics for Disaster recovery addresses the moral aspects of hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, plane crashes, the Avian Flu pandemics, and other disasters. Naomi Zack explores how these catastrophes illuminate the existing inequalities in the society. By employing the moral systems of utilitarianism, deontology, virtue ethics and to analyze the consequences of the recent natural disasters, Zack reveals the special plight of the poor, the disabled, the infirm and the when tragedy strikes. Zack explores the political foundations of social contract theory and dignitarianism and invites readers to rethink the distinction between risk in normal times and the risk in the disaster. Using both real life and fictional examples, Zack forcefully argues for the preservation of normal moral principles in times of national crisis and emergency, stressing the moral obligation of both individuals and government in preparing for and responding to a disaster (https://books.google.ee/books?isbn=0742564959

Ft.com: https://www.ft.com/content/0c1f39b4-3bb3-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec

NB: in addition to the ethical and moral dimension, at the end of the narrowly-economy

Herbert Lindmäe, (2015-1999) SUVESÕDA … 1941, Tartu, Estonia OÜ Greif: the 4825lk (sic! (IX) Volumes — more than)

NB: the Second Independence War of the eye.

Herbert Lindmäe, (2007) the Memento of the Association 16.VI 2007. Confrence Papers:

https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2015/05/11/copy-of-the-papers-of-the-history-confrence-of-the-estonian-memento-association-on-june-16-2007/

Laitin, David (1998) the Identity in Formation: the Russian-speaking Populations in the Near Abroad. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

P.S.: (a) the SN is intended for Ennuste (2014, by the way, this seems to be an index of 1.1 in the magazine among the 20 of the most downloadable text, among others), and also partly Kholodilin and Netsunajev (2017), merely to expand the texts of hybrid-war sanctions: in addition to the economic dimension of the sanctions also cyber attacks dimension (Kissinger (2014)) , and the ideological war, the strategic communications turbulences (and also the military disasters of the consideration of the probability of the negative, and the types of activity of the endogenioning) complex consideration of the full dimensions, (b) the author is fully aware that such an adequate complex approach requires the corresponding ad hoc international scientific co cilium  there -and-hoping to achieve in the future the area of academic cooperation with the charity.

 

 

 

 

*) 29.VIII 17

Sotsio-küberneetiliselt optimaalse natsionalismi määra konteptsioonist: postokupeeritud etnilis-heterogeensele väikerahvale liikmesriigina turbulentses hübriidsõjas – eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse institutsionaalsel maksimeerimisel

Olulisemaid esialgseid osundusi kavas olevale ingl lühiartiklile (SN):

Ahlerup, Pelle; Gustav Hansson (2011) „Nationalism and government effectiveness“ – Journal of Comparative Economics Volume 39, Issue 3, September 2011, Pages 431–451.

A b s t r a c t

Nation-building is believed to have a positive influence on economic and political outcomes, especially in countries with ethnically fragmented populations. Yet nationalism, an indicator of successful nation-building, has been empirically linked to protectionism and intolerance, which suggests that dismal performance is a more likely outcome. This paper empirically identifies an inverted U-shaped relationship between nationalism and government effectiveness. The results suggest that the level of nationalism in the population

is higher than optimal in most countries. It is further shown that nationalism may mitigate the negative effects of ethnic heterogeneity in former colonies. We find no clear linkages between nationalism and trade openness.

Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NB: teaduskirjanduses (nt Fukuyama (2014)) üldiselt “koloniseerimine” ja “okupeerimine” on sünonüümid ning eeskätt suunatud põliselanike hävitamisele: Kukk (2005) järgi sovjeti okupatsioon Eestis 1940-1991 vastas kolonisatsiooni tingimustele.

Ennuste, Ülo (2014) “ Towards Special Methodological Problems of Macro-Optimal Sociocybernetic International Economic Sanctioning Coordination Modelling: Introductory Remarks oPreliminary Postulates and Conjectures” – Baltic Journal of European Studies Tallinn University of Technology (ISSN 2228-0588), Vol. 4, No. 2 (17), 150-158:  http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT

Modelling remarks

Theoretically, the most complicated problem in the planning of collective sanctions in the EU context in this third round is the central optimal coordination of the defensive/deterrent economic sanction measures taken by the imposing EU Member States, as these penalty measures, projected by the imposing countries against transgressing third national economy, are as a rule hurting the Member States’ economies as well—and—directly and indirectly to different stochastic degrees. First of all, via counter-attacks by the transgressor in many ways: political, economic, military etc. (at least in this conflict, see The Economist, 2014).

Thus from the cybereconomics perspective, the adequate optimization criterion has to be complex: for example, real economic risk axis, and complementary imaginary political risk axis. Additionally, complications in this model may come

into game via third-country fuzzy logic and dictators’ nfamous moral hazards. And most importantly—the complexity of the problems increases as, alongside sanctions to the antagonist, the coalition union has to introduce complementary domestic economic policies and mechanisms for the minimization of losse inflicted to the national member economies from the counter-reactions …

NB: liitude puhul adekvaatne modelleerimine nõuab hierarhiliste institutsionaalsete koordineerimis-struktuuride peegeldamist (nt Ennuste (1989) ning seega ka negatiivse aktiivsusega tüüpide endogeniseerimist (nt trollide ja diversantide kolonnid jne).

Ennuste, Ü. (1989) “Some Models of Stochastic Planning Mechanisms” – Finnish Economic Papers, 2, 2, 116 – 124. http://econpapers.repec.org/article/fepjournl/v_3a2_3ay_3a1989_3ai_3a2_3ap_3a116-124.htm

Kholodilin, Konstantin A. and Aleksei Netsunajev (2017) Crimea and punishment:The impact of sanctions on Russian and European economies. Bank of Estonia.

 Abstract

The conict between Russia and Ukraine that started in March 2014 led to bilateral economic sanctions being imposed on each other by Russia and Western countries, including the members of the euro area. The paper investigates the impact of the sanctions on the real side of the economies of Russia and the euro area. The e_ects of sanctions are analysed with a structural vector autoregression. To pin down the e_ect we are interested in, we include in the model an index that measures the intensity of the sanctions. The sanction shock is identi_ed and separated from the oil price shock by narrative sign restrictions. We _nd a very high probability that Russian GDP declined as a result of the sanctions. In contrast to that, the e_ects of the sanctions on the euro area are limited to real effective exchange rate adjustments.

Kukk, Kalev (2005) ”Economic Damages” In: The White Book: Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes 1940–1991State Committee on the Investigation into Repression Policy of Occupation, Tallinn, Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers:141-171:    http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

 

Maestri, Lucas (2017)„Ambiguity, optimism, and pessimism in adverse selection models“ Journal of Economic Theory Volume 171, September 2017, Pages 64-100:

 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2017.06.004Get rights and

Abstract

We investigate the effect of ambiguity and ambiguity attitude on the shape and properties of the optimal contract in an adverse selection model with a continuum of types, using the NEO-additive model. We show that it necessarily features efficiency and a jump at the top and pooling at the bottom of the distribution. Conditional on the degree of ambiguity, the pooling section may be supplemented by a separating section. As a result, ambiguity adversely affects the principal’s ability to solve the adverse selection problem and therefore the least efficient types benefit from ambiguity with respect to risk. Conversely, ambiguity is detrimental to the most efficient types.

Schmid-Schmidsfelden, Hubertus and Kristina Potapova (2016) The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing: Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU. Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies:

https://www.google.ee/search?q=martensctre%20eu%20publications%20bear%20sheeps%20clothing%20russias%20government%20funded%20organisations

Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (2015) Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity. – Journal of Development Economics 115 32–44.

StratCom COE (15.III 2017) StratCom laughs. In search of an analytical framework – ISBN: 978-9934-564-12-3: http://www.stratcomcoe.org/publications

Eelretsenseerimata publikatsioone

Communist Crimes (Polish legal concepts)https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_crimes_(Polish_legal_concept)

CommunistCrimes.org: http://www.communistcrimes.org/en/Database/Estonia/Estonia-Communist-Era

le Carré, John (2016) The Pigeon Tunnel: Stories from My Life. Kindle Edition.

Lõhmus, Rain (2017) https://geenius.ee/uudis/rain-lohmus-residentsus-on-ulehaibitud-absurd/ 

Paralleelselt nt Maestri (2017) akadeemilisele tekstile – siin empiiriliselt Lõhmus  väidab et nt Eesti  e-residentsuse institutsioon suurendab rahvuslikku informatsioonilist ebakindlust ja sellega muudab ratsionaalseks kapitali vaba liikumise kitsendamise – arvestades negatiivse efektiivsusega välismaiste heterogeensete tüüpide (sulide, diversantide, trollide jne) püüdlusi olukordade hägususe suurenemist rahvuslikult kahjustavalt ära kasutada – arvestades rahvusliku majandusmehhanismi tõrkeid (teadusvaeguslikku ülelihtsustust nt 0-kasumimaksu ja puudulikult progresseeruvat individuaalset tulumaksu jne turbulentsi tingimustes)

Zack, Naomi (2009) Ethics for Disaster. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA):164, Kindle.

Ethics for Disaster addresses the moral aspects of hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, plane crashes, Avian Flu pandemics, and other disasters. Naomi Zack explores how these catastrophes illuminate the existing inequalities in society. By employing the moral systems of utilitarianism, deontology, and virtue ethics to analyze the consequences of recent natural disasters, Zack reveals the special plight of the poor, disabled, and infirm when tragedy strikes. Zack explores the political foundations of social contract theory and dignitarianism and invites readers to rethink the distinction between risk in normal times and risk in disaster. Using both real life and fictional examples, Zack forcefully argues for the preservation of normal moral principles in times of national crisis and emergency, stressing the moral obligation of both individuals and government in preparing for and responding to disaster (https://books.google.ee/books?isbn=0742564959 

 Ft.com: https://www.ft.com/content/0c1f39b4-3bb3-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec

NB: eetilise ja moraalse dimensiooni arvestamisest lisaks kitsalt turumajanduslikule

Lindmäe, Herbert (2015-1999) SUVESÕDA  … 1941, Tartu, OÜ Greif: 4825lk (sic! IX Köidet – üe)

NB: Teise Vabadussõja tähtsustamine.

Lindmäe, Herbert (2007) Memento Association 16.VI 2007. Confrence Papers:

https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2015/05/11/copy-of-the-papers-of-the-history-confrence-of-the-estonian-memento-association-on-june-16-2007/

Laitin, David (1998) Identity in Formation: the Russian-speaking Populations in the Near Abroad. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

P.S.: (a) SN on mõeldud Ennuste (2014, muide olevat selles 1.1 indeksiga ajakirjas 20-ne enim allalaaditava teksti hulgas) ja osaliselt ka Kholodilin andNetsunajev (2017) pelgalt hübriidsõja sanktsioonide alaste tekstide laiendamiseks: lisaks majandus-sanktsioonide dimensioonile ka kübersõjalise dimensiooni (Kissinger (2014)) ja strateegilise kommunikatsiooni ideoloogilise sõja turbulentside (ning ka militaarsete katastroofide võimalikkuse arvestamist ning negatiivse aktiivsusega tüüpide endogeniseerimist) dimensioonide täielikku komplekset arvestamist (b) autor on täielikult teadlik et taoline adekvaatne komplekskäsitlus nõuab vastava ad hoc rahvusvahelise teadusliku konsiiliumi olemas-olu – ja  – loodab saavutada edaspidist selle alast heategevuslikku akadeemilist koostööd.

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August 29, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Memo 6.VIII 17

NB!: http://maailm.postimees.ee/4198097/poola-kaalub-saksamaalt-reparatsioonide-noudmist?utm_source

Selle teksti järgi nõudmiste esiplaanis on Saksamaalt WWII perioodil ligemale kuue miljoni Poola kodaniku elukaotuse eest kompensatsiooni taotlemine – ilmselt rahaliselt mõõdetuna Poola Parlamendi Teadusosakonna (sic! – üe) poolt.

Siinkohal tekkivad nii sügavad eetilis-filosoofised deontoloogia probleemid kui ka sotsiaal-küberneetilised matemaatilised keerukused jne – sest teadlaskonna teoretiseeringud eetilise vastutuse vallas ulatuva inimelu rahalise väärtuse hindamise osas seinast seina: seda et kas ei peaks üldse moraalse käsitluse puhul loobuma inimelu väärtuse rahalisest hindamisest – või – see väärtus oleks utilitaarselt käsitledes nagunii lõpmatult suur ning seega praktiliselt kasutu: vt Zack (2009)*.

Professor Zack kes on U.S. EPA pikaajaline juhtivteadur taolises temaatikas on teaduspõhiselt kindlalt seisukohal – et eriti katastroofide (nt hübriidsõdades) lähenemise tingimustes – on inimelude väärtuste monetaarne hindamine kohustuslik sest see võimaldab ratsionaalselt juhtida rahvuslike fondide eraldamist nii katastroofide realiseerumise tõenäosuste vähendamiseks (nt hübriidsõjas agressori heidutamisega) kui ka katastroofide tagajärgede leevendamiseks (nt rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse stabiliseerimiseks: vt ka https://yloennuste.wordpress.com/2017/07/24/sotsiaal-kuber-kiri-24-vii-17/

Zack (2009) kokkuvõttest lõigust Postscript leiame et 2008 U.S. EPA hindas ümber ameeriklase nn statistilise dokumentidel põhineva keskmise inimelu väärtuse hinna 7,8 miljoni dollari pealt mõnevõrra madalamaks vastavalt 6,9 miljoni peale. Samast loeme et kohe U.S. arvukate asjatundjate hulgas avaldati protesti taolise hinnaalandamise suhtes – eriti arvestades domineerivat kristlikku eetikat ning inimelu moraalse absoluutse väärtustamise kultuuri.

Väga esialgselt võime eelöelduga analoogia alusel (tehes vatavaid informaalseid korrektsioone nt et eliiti kuuluvus tõstab hinda jne) omalt poolt väga ligikaudselt hinnata et Saksamaa poolt Poolale tekitatud  pöördumatud inimkaotused WWII perioodil – on tänapäeva hübriidsõja tingimustes kui rahvusliku inimressursi jäädavad kaotused hinnatavad triljonite dollarite mahus – seega ligikaudu parajasti Saksamaa väga mitmeaastastele GDP summaarsele mahule lähedal – seega väga õigesti häbistavalt/hukkamõistvalt Saksa tolleaegse armee inimsusvastasusele kuritegevusele.

Jääb lisada et see tohutu kahjusumma võib ekslikult tunduda liiga suurena võrreldes nt OECD (2011) Raportile just ka Poola näitel – ekslikult selle tõttu et selles käsitletakse ainult puhtalt inimkapitali hindamist (eeskätt formaalse harituse ehk mehhaanilise kapitali osas) ja sedagi kitsalt ainult turumajandusliku eluaegse sissetuleku näitel (nt keskmiseks inimkapitali mahuks hinnatakse eelmiste aastate statistika alusel summat ligemale p.c 0,2 miljoni dollari ringis. Seega sellest summast jäävad välja nii sotsiaalkapitali (sh elanikkonna loomuliku iibe ressursside hindamine) kui ka muude turuväliste/kodumajapidamislike nn satelliittulude arvestused).

P.S.: nii või teisiti (a) kas ülal esitet PM.ee tekst on tõene või mingi strateegilis-kommunikatsiooniline õnglemine (phishing: vt nt** nt Poola laimamiseks nt kasvõi selle vihjega et Parlamendil on Teadusosakond) – igal juhul on sellele kaasusele täiendava tähelpanu juhtimine meile kui hübriidsõja eesrindel (vähemalt nii küber- kui ka kaubandus-sõjas) olevale väiksele liitlasriigile väga oluline (b) väga esialgselt ja väga ligikaudselt võiksime ülaltoodud analoogide ja uurimuste põhjal hinnata et perioodil 1939-94 (Venemaa sõjaväeosad lahkusid Eestist 1994) okupatsioonide repressioonid rahvuslike inimkaotuste osas*** tänapäeva mõistes monetaarselt võivad ulatuda triljoni euroni – seega magnituudides ületada meie praegust GDP mahtu – äärmiselt suur ligikaudsus on suuresti tingitud ka sellest et siiani ei ole suudetud piisavalt täpselt määrata meie rahvuslikke inimkaotusi okupatsioonide sõja- ja genotsiidi-kuritegude läbi – nt häbiväärselt on püütud alavääristada Teise Vabadussõja kangelaslikkust ning ohvreid: vt prof Herbert Lindmäe (1999-2015) Köide IX lk 542. (c) tekst aitab ka mõista et sõja tingimustes tuleb sotsiaal-küberneetilisest aspektist ja nn endogeensete tasakaalu kõrgete hindade rakursist – vt nt***) meie liitlaste mistahes toetust käsitleda ka kui meie FDI ühte allikat ja seega ka GDP potentsiaali suurendajat ning seega ka rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse tõstmise faktorit – veelgi enam – kui kogu meie liitlaslaagrite sotsiaalkapitali (eeskätt koostöö efektiivsuse tõstmist – millele putinoidtrollide kolonnid püüavad eriti kiilu vahele lüüa nii EL kui ka NATO sees – sh parajasti eriti Poola laimamiseks) (d) nii Zack (2009) kui ka sellega seotud autorite (https://yloennuste.wordpress.com/2017/07/24/sotsiaal-kuber-kiri 24-vii-17/) sotsiaal küberneetilised uurimused vihjavad et hübriidsõja tingimustes vastavate otsustusmudelite puhul adekvaatsuse saavutamiseks on tarvilik nii funktsioonide katkevuse peegeldamine kui ka suli- ja agressor-agentide tegevuste kirjeldamine – ning samuti sotsiaalsete küberneetiliste mehhanismide/institutsioonide optimeerimine eeskätt rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse tõenäosuse stabiilsuse kindlustamiseks; seejuures prospektiivsete tõenäosuste teadusloogilisel hindamisel arusaadavalt tuleb tugineda Bayes’e printsiibile.

NB: ilmselt sotsiaal-küberneetiliselt hindade määramisel peamiseks ratsionaalseks meetodiks on mudelite dekomponeeritud lahendamisel endogeenselt tekkivad nn duaallahendid (vari-hinnad, Lagrange’i kordajad) – seega mitte vabaturu hinnad sest mudeli keerukus (katkevus, diskreetsus, agressorite tegevuse otsene piiramine ja seda ka strateegilise kommunikatsiooni  tsenseerimise ning kriminaliseerimise osas (http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No4/Ennuste.pdf).

*) Naomi Zack (2009) Ethics for Disaster. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA):164, Kindle.
Ethics for Disaster addresses the moral aspects of hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, plane crashes, Avian Flu pandemics, and other disasters. Naomi Zack explores how these catastrophes illuminate the existing inequalities in society. By employing the moral systems of utilitarianism, deontology, and virtue ethics to analyze the consequences of recent natural disasters, Zack reveals the special plight of the poor, disabled, and infirm when tragedy strikes. Zack explores the political foundations of social contract theory and dignitarianism and invites readers to rethink the distinction between risk in normal times and risk in disaster. Using both real life and fictional examples, Zack forcefully argues for the preservation of normal moral principles in times of national crisis and emergency, stressing the moral obligation of both individuals and government in preparing for and responding to disaster (https://books.google.ee/books?isbn=0742564959 

Ja)

OECD (2011) MEASURING THE STOCK OF HUMAN CAPITAL FOR COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION OF THE LIFETIME INCOME APPROACH TO SELECTED COUNTRIES – STATISTICS DIRECTORATE- WORKING PAPER NO. 41 (This paper has been prepared by Gang Liu, OECD Statistics Directorate): http://www.oecd.org/std/research

 **) Akerlof, Georg, Robert Shiller (2015) Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, ISBN: 9781400873265 Princeton University Press, Princeton, NY and Kindle Edition.
 ***) Gregory, Paul R., Philipp J.H. Schröder, Konstantin Sonin (2011) „Rational dictators and the killing of innocents: Data from Stalin’s archives“ – Journal of Comparative Economics 39 (2011) 34–42. 
 Ja
 Lindmäe, Herbert (2015-1999) SUVESÕDA  … 1941. Tartu, OÜ Greif: 4825lk (sic! IX Köidet – üe).
 Ja
Estonia 1940-1945 (2006) – Estonian International Commission for the Investigation of Crimes Against Humanity, Tallinn: 1337pp.
Ning

Valge raamat: Eesti rahva kaotustest okupatsioonide läbi 1940-1991. Okupatsioonide Repressiivpoliitika Uurimise Riiklik Komisjon, Eesti Entsüklopeediakirjastus, 2005 Tallinn:
http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8196
ja
http://www.riigikogu.ee/…/…/uploads/2014/11/Valge-Raamat.pdf

The White Book. Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes 1940-1991. State Committee on the Investigation into Repression Policy of Occupation, Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers, 2005 Tallinn:
http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192
ja
http://www.riigikogu.ee/public/Riigikogu/TheWhiteBook.pdf

Белая книга: о потерях, причиненных народу Эстонии оккупациями 1940-1991 / Государственная комиссия по расследованию репрессивной политики оккупационных сил; [перевод с эстонского: Андрей Бабаджан, Татьяна Верхоустинская, Эйнар Вяря; ORURK-24. Kirjastus Ilo. Tallinn, 2005: http://digar.nlib.ee/digar/show/?id=1604

Ja

Varju, Peep (2013) Eesti laste küüditamine Venemaale 14. juunil 1941 kui genotsiidi- jasõjakuritegu. Sihtasutus Valge Raamat, Tallinna Raamatutrükikoda: 116:

http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:134869

 ****) 

Naevdal, Eric (2016) „Catastrophes and ex post shadow prices — How the value of the last fish in a lake is infinity and why we should not care (much)“ – Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Volume 132, Part B, December 2016, Pages 153–160: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.04.021

Ja

Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (2015) Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity. – Journal of Development Economics 115 32–44.

P.S.P.S.: Vaata lisaks

Pindyck, Robert S. and Neng Wang (2013) „The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes“ – American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 5(4): 306–339: http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.5.4.306

Fleurbaey, Marc; Stéphane Zuber (2017) „Fair management of social risk“ – Journal of EconomicTheory, 169): 666–706:  http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jet

Chanel, Oliver; Graciela Chichilnisky (2013) „Valuing life: Experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events“ – Ecological Economics 85: 198–205: doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.03.004

VABANDUSI: olen täiesi teadlik et taoliste ülevaadete koostamine käib ühele autorile ülejõu ja selles et minu blogidel on rahvusvaheline levik (WordPress.com peab vastavat statistikat) – ja seepärast püüan olla tõlkimisautomaatidele meelepärane (nt GDP, FDI, WWII jne).

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