Ülo Ennuste Economics

papers and articles in wordpress

Remark 9.X 17

Remark (Visand 9.X 17 – ära viita)

 Demograafia ja rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse seostest linnulennult mõnigate hiljutiste sotsiaal-küberneetiliste publikatsioonide alusel – Dr Jaak Uibu 29.IX 2017 Ettepaneku „Eesti rahvastikupoliitika kavand“ (vt LISA) toetuseks

Alustame ääremärkusi Momota (2016) osundamisega milles muide ka eesti mõningate demograafiliste fertiilsuse indikaatorite analüüse – kahjuks küll ainult kitsalt vanamoodi kitsalt rahvusliku heaolu kriteeriumi põhiselt – hübriidsõja tingimustes (nt Soomre, 2015) on eksistentsiaalsed rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse indikaatorid ning vastavate ressursside olemid. Muide Momota (2016) sisaldab mitmeid häid publikatsioonide osundusi kuni Samuelson (1975) mis siia Abstract järgi on kopeeritud – ja selles osas võiks Uibu Ettepanekule suureks toeks olla (muidugi kui õnnestub nende hankimiseks Riigikogul veidike raha leida – muide meil ise taoliste publikatsioonide resultaatide produtseerimine läheks magnituudides kallimaks):

Momota, Akira (2016) „Intensive and extensive margins of fertility, capital accumulation, and economic welfare“ – Journal of Public Economics 133: 90–110.

Keywords:

Childlessness

Economic growth (NB selle asemel peaks moodsast sotsiaal-küberneetilisest rakursist meie kontekstis olema (hübriidsõja tingimustes mitmes dimensioonis tsivilisatsiooni laagri eesrindel) – „eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse indikaatoritega (nt nende tõenäosuste maksimeerimine)“ – üe)

Extensive margin of fertility

Income redistribution

Intensive margin of fertility

Overlapping generations (NB „etnilise struktuuri dünaamika“ peaks meie kontekstis kindlasti olema ka ilmutatud kujul kirjeldatud – üe)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of low fertility on long-term capital accumulation and economic welfare. We find that the impact differs depending on whether the low fertility arises from a decrease in the fertility of mothers (the intensive margin of fertility) or the motherhood rate (the extensive margin of fertility). We show that an increase in the fertility of mothers decreases the capital stock and economic welfare. Conversely, we identify a U-shaped relationship between the extensive margin of fertility and the capital stock because of the existence of two opposing effects, such that the decline in fertility may reduce economic welfare. Furthermore, we show that an intragenerational income redistribution policy can eliminate the welfare loss resulting from the incomplete market.

© 2015 Elsevier B.V.

(NB – ka eesti mõningaid vastavaid indikaatoreid on analüüsitud)

 

References

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intensive margins. Am. Econ. Rev. 104 (11), 3701–3724.

Barro, R.J., Becker, G.S., 1989. Fertility choice in a model of economic growth.

Econometrica 57 (2), 481–501.

Baudin, T., de la Croix, D., Gobbi, P., 2015a. Development policies when accounting for the

extensive margin of fertility. IRES Discussion Paper 2015-3.

Baudin, T., de la Croix, D., Gobbi, P., 2015b. Fertility and childlessness in the United States.

Am. Econ. Rev. 105 (6), 1852–1882.

Becker, G.S., Barro, R.J., 1988. A reformulation of the economic theory of fertility. Q. J. Econ.

103 (1), 1–25.

Blanchard, O.J., Fischer, S., 1989. Lectures on Macroeconomics. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.

d’Albis, H., Augeraud-Véron, E., Schubert, K., 2010. Demo-economic equilibriawhen childbearing

age is endogenous. J. Math. Econ. 44 (6), 1211–1221.

de la Croix, D., Pestieau, P., Ponthière, G., 2012. How powerful is demography? The serendipity

theorem revisited. J. Popul. Econ. 25 (3), 899–922.

Deardorff, A.V., 1976. The optimum growth rate for population: comment. Int. Econ. Rev.

17 (2), 510–515.

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1126–1150.

Doepke, M., 2008. Growth takeoffs. In: Durlauf, S.N., Blume, L. (Eds.), The New Palgrave

Dictionary of Economics, Second ed. Palgrave MacMillan, New York.

Galor, O., 2005. From stagnation to growth: unified growth theory. In: Aghion, P., Durlauf,

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  2. 171–293.

Gobbi, P.E., 2013. A model of voluntary childlessness. J. Popul. Econ. 26 (3), 963–982.

Human Fertility Database, 2015. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

(Germany) and Vienna Institute of Demography (Austria). (available at www.

humanfertility.org data downloaded on April 25, 2015).

Lucas, R.E., 2002. The industrial revolution: past and future. Lectures on Economic

Growth. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.

Michel, P., Pestieau, P., 1993. Population growth and optimality: when does the serendipity

hold? J. Popul. Econ. 6 (4), 353–362.

Michel, P., Pestieau, P., 1998. Fiscal policy in a growth model with both altruistic and

nonaltruistic agents. South. Econ. J. 64 (3), 682–697.

Michel, P., Pestieau, P., 2005. Fiscal policy with agents differing in altruism and ability.

 

Economica 72 (285), 121–135.

Ministry of Health, Labour and Wealth, 2010. Shussyou ni Kansuru Toukei (in Japanese)

[Statistics Concerning Fertility]. Ministry of Health, Labour and Wealth, Tokyo

Momota, A., Horii, R., 2013. Timing of childbirth, capital accumulation, and economic welfare.

Oxf. Econ. Pap. 65 (2), 494–522.

Monstad, K., Propper, C., Salvanes, K.G., 2008. Education and fertility: evidence froma natural

experiment. Scand. J. Econ. 110 (4), 827–852.

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, 2006. Nihon no Shourai

Jinkou Suikei: Heisei 18 Nen 12 Gatsu Suikei (in Japanese) [Population Projection of

Japan in December, 2006]. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research,

Tokyo.

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htm).

Razin, A., Ben-Zion, U., 1975. An intergenerational model of population growth. Am. Econ.

Rev. 65 (5), 923–933.

Samuelson, P.A., 1975. The optimum growth rate for population. Int. Econ. Rev. 16 (3),

531–538.

Jätkame Dr Zack (2009) monograafiaga mis muide sisaldab U.S. EPA poolt koostatud keskmise ameeriklase nn rahvuslikku statistilist hinda katastroofid hirmude tingimustes. Muide autor küll vihjab et eliiti kuuluva isiku hind on oluliselt kõrgem kuid jätab märkimata kuidas hinnata kriminaalseid ning terroristlikke tüüpe. Muide sotsiaal küberneetiliste mudelite optimeerimisel dekompositsioonimeetodil kõigile ingredientidele kujunevad informaalsed endogeensed hinnad ehk Lagrange’i kordajad ning siinkohal nimetame neid küberhindadeks (nt ka Naevdal, 2016) – sh nii agentidele kui ka institutsioonidele nagu ka traditsioonilistele ressurssidele:

Zack, Naomi (2009) Ethics for Disaster. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA):164, Kindle.
Ethics for Disaster addresses the moral aspects of hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, plane crashes, Avian Flu pandemics, and other disasters. Naomi Zack explores how these catastrophes illuminate the existing inequalities in society. By employing the moral systems of utilitarianism, deontology, and virtue ethics to analyze the consequences of recent natural disasters, Zack reveals the special plight of the poor, disabled, and infirm when tragedy strikes. Zack explores the political foundations of social contract theory and dignitarianism and invites readers to rethink the distinction between risk in normal times and risk in disaster. Using both real life and fictional examples, Zack forcefully argues for the preservation of normal moral principles in times of national crisis and emergency, stressing the moral obligation of both individuals and government in preparing for and responding to disaster (https://books.google.ee/books?isbn=0742564959  

NB: Tegemist on keskmiste statistiliste hindadega – seega autor küll vihjab asjaolule et nt eliidi puhul on tegemist suuremate väärtustega – kuid ei erista nt positiivse ja negatiivse aktiivsusega tüüpe; muide Wiener (1948) juba oma homoöostaasi mudelites (sotiaalküberneetilistes tasakaalu mudelites mis sisaldavad ka sotsiaalseid mehhanisme) eristas nii sulisid kui ka lolle. Lindmäe (2015: IX Köide lk538) rõhutab eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse kindlustamisel meie vabadusvõitlejate kangelaslikkuse erilist väärtustamist: nii Esimeses – aga eriti Teises Vabadussõjas (muide HTM ETISe järgi Prof Lindmäe on nulltegelane).

Muide hübriidsõja katastroofide tingimustes positiivse rahvuslase hinna hindamisel Zack’i järgi ilmselt sotsiaalkapitali p.c sisse tuleb eestiliselt arvestada riigi kaitsekulutused (nii kodu- kui ka välismaised) ja seetõttu need võivad näida politikaanidele ülehinnatutena (Zack’i (2009) järgi keskmise positiivse usalase hind võis olla ligemale tosina miljoni euro ringis – seega Bayes’likult kalibreeritult (Tongeren ja Picavet, 2016) meile okupatsioonides möödunud sajandis inimsusvataselt tekitatud inimkaotuste hinda võib esialgselt paushaalsel hinnata 2-1 tn kübereuro ringi (intuitiivselt) – millega tuleks arvestada uute annektsioonide heidutamise kulutustustesse panustamisel.

NBNB Katastroofide küberneetika rakursist Zack (2009) piirdub põhiliselt looduskatastroofidega milledes inimtegevus on ainult kaudne – kahjuks otseselt inimtegevusega seotud katastroofe ei käsitle – märgime et tänavune Nobeli Rahupreemia omistati tuumarelvade keelustamise alal – seega eeskätt inimpõhise globaalkatastroofi tõenäosuse erodeerimise alal.

Just äsja Võrgus ilmus tasulisena

DP12350 Can financial incentives reduce the baby gap? Evidence from a reform in maternity leave benefits

Author(s): Anna Raute

Date of Publication: October 2017

Programme Area(s): LE, PE

Keyword(s): Fertility, fertility gaps, paid maternity leave

Abstract: To assess whether earnings-dependent maternity leave positively impacts fertility and narrows the baby gap between high educated (high earning) and low educated (low earning) women, I exploit a major maternity leave benefit reform in Germany that considerably increases the financial incentives for higher educated and higher earning women to have a child. In particular, I use the large differential changes in maternity leave benefits across education and income groups to estimate the effects on fertility up to 5 years post reform. In addition to demonstrating an up to 22% increase in the fertility of tertiary educated versus low educated women, I find a positive, statistically significant effect of increased benefits on fertility, driven mainly by women at the middle and upper end of the education and income distributions. Overall, the results suggest that earnings-dependent maternity leave benefits, which compensate women commensurate with their opportunity cost of childbearing, could successfully reduce the fertility rate disparity related to mothers’ education and earnings.

MISCELLANEA: Et  meelde tuletada et  oleme hübriidsõja (vt nt Freedman, 2017) tingimustes eriti strateegilise kommunikatsiooni rindel –  ning samas polaarsetes etnilistes kompeksetes  olukordades – seda eriti piiriüleselt:

Ahlerup, Pelle; Gustav Hansson (2011) „Nationalism and government effectiveness“ – Journal of Comparative Economics Volume 39, Issue 3, September 2011, Pages 431–451.

A b s t r a c t

Nation-building is believed to have a positive influence on economic and political outcomes, especially in countries with ethnically fragmented populations. Yet nationalism, an indicator of successful nation-building, has been empirically linked to protectionism and intolerance, which suggests that dismal performance is a more likely outcome. This paper empirically identifies an inverted U-shaped relationship between nationalism and government effectiveness. The results suggest that the level of nationalism in the population is higher than optimal in most countries. It is further shown that nationalism may mitigate the negative effects of ethnic heterogeneity in former colonies. We find no clear linkages between nationalism and trade openness. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bosker, Maarten; Joppe de Ree (2014)) „Ethnicity and the spread of civil war“- Journal of Development Economics, Volume 108: 206-221.

Civil wars tend to cluster in particular areas of the world. We provide empirical evidence that cross-border conflict spillovers are an important factor in explaining this pattern. Moreover, we show that ethnicity plays a key role in conditioning the spread of civil wars. Only ethnic wars tend to spill over, and ethnic wars are more likely to spill over along ethnic lines. The latter result is robust to the inclusion of a host of (other) crossborder characteristics, such as geographical factors and trade intensity. We estimate that a neighboring ethnic civil war increases the risk of an outbreak of ethnic civil war on the home territory by 4–6% points.

© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chanel, Oliver; Graciela Chichilnisky (2013) „Valuing life: Experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events“ – Ecological Economics 85: 198–205: doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.03.004

Chichilnisky, Graciela; Kristen A. Sheeran (2013) „A changing climate in economics: Responses to crisis“ –  Ecological Economics, Volume 85: 143-144.

„ … This article (Chanel&Chichilnisky, 2013 – üe) argues that global environmental phenomena like climate change, major extinction events or flutype pandemics can have catastrophic consequences, but catastrophes are either ignored or underestimated in standard economic decision theory under uncertainty that emerged from the theoretical structure introduced by Von Neumann and Morgenstern. By assessing the outcomes involved and their probabilities – especially those concerning human life – the standard economic theory of choice under uncertainty is supposed to yield optimal decisions. However, the widely used expected utility theory values life in terms of the low probability of death someone would be willing to accept in order to receive extra payment. Common sense and experimental evidence refute this way of valuing life. This article provides a theoretical alternative tested through experimental evidence. It reports on people’s unwillingness to accept a low probability of death that is contrary to expected utility predictions. The article is based on new axioms of choice under uncertainty defined by Chichilnisky (1996, 2009), and it focuses on a new axiom that extends those of Von Neumann and Morgenstern allowing extreme responses to extreme events, fully characterizing the choice criteria that these new axioms imply. The authors show that the implied decision criteria are a combination of expected utility

with extreme responses, and they demonstrate experimentally that

these criteria – which are new in the literature – are more consistent

with experimental observations about how humans make decisions

when faced with catastrophic events such as death. From this emerges a new way to value life, using new experimental evidence as well as new theoretical foundations. …“

Chichilnisky, Graciela  (2010) „The foundations of statistics with black swans“ –

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2009.09.007Get rights and content

Abstract

We extend the foundation of statistics to integrate rare events that are potentially catastrophic, called black swans.These include natural hazards, regime change in complex systems, market crashes, catastrophic climate change and major episodes of species extinction. Classic statistics and physics treat such events as ‘outliers’ and often disregard them. We propose a new axiomatization of subjective probability requiring equal treatment for rare and frequent events, and characterize the likelihoods or subjective probabilities that the axioms imply. These coincide with countably additive measures and yield normal distributions when the sample has no black swans. When the sample includes black swans, the new likelihoods are represented by a combination of countable and finitely additive measures with both parts present. The axioms were introduced in Chichilnisky (2000, 2002); they extend the axiomatic foundations of Savage (1954)Villegas (1964) and Arrow (1971) and they are valid for bounded and unbounded samples (Chichilnisky, 1996b). The finitely additive measures assign more weight to rare events than do standard distributions and in that sense explain the persistent observation of power laws and ‘heavy tails’ that eludes classic theory.

Chichilnisky, Graciela (2009) „The topology of fear“ – Journal of Mathematical Economics 45:  807–816.

A b s t r a c t

For many years experimental observations have raised questions about the rationality of economic agents—for example, the Allais Paradox or the Equity Premium Puzzle. The probleem is a narrow notion of rationality that disregards fear. This article extends the notion of rationality with new axioms of choice under uncertainty and the decision criteria they imply (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). In the absence of catastrophes, the old and the newapproach coincide, and both lead to standard expected utility. A sharp difference emerges when facing rare events with important consequences, or catastrophes. Theorem 1 establishes that a classic axiom of choice under uncertainty – Arrow’s Monotone Continuity axiom, or its relatives introduced by DeGroot, Villegas, Hernstein and Milnor – postulate rational behavior that is ‘insensitive’ to rare events as defined in (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). Theorem 2 replaces this axiom with another that allows extreme responses to extreme events, and characterizes the implied decision criteria as a combination of expected utility with extremal responses. Theorems 1 and 2 offer a new understanding of rationality consistent with previously unexplained observations about decisions involving rare and catastrophic events, decisions involving fear, the Equity Premium Puzzle, ‘jump diffusion’ processes and ‘heavy tails’, and it agrees with (Debreu, G., 1953. Valuation equilibrium and Pareto optimum. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 40, 588–592) formulation of market behavior and his proof of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand theorem.

© 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

le Carrè, John (2017 Sept 7) A Legasy of Spies. Kindle

Interweaving past with present so that each may tell its own intense story, John le Carré has spun a single plot as ingenious and thrilling as the two predecessors on which it looks back: The Spy Who Came in from the Cold and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. In a story resonating with tension, humor and moral ambivalence, le Carré and his narrator Peter Guillam present the reader with a legacy of unforgettable characters old and new…

 Clinton, Hillary Rodham (2017 12.IX) What Happened. Kindle Edition.

Amazon: “ … She lays out how the 2016 election was marked by an unprecedented assault on our democracy by a foreign adversary (Sic! üe). By analyzing the evidence and connecting the dots, Hillary shows just how dangerous the forces are that shaped the outcome, and why Americans need to understand them to protect our values and our democracy in the future. … “

NB: kübersõda infomanipuleerimisega kahjustab rahvuslikku sotsiaalkapitali nii rahvusliku teadmusruumi hägustamisega kui ka rahvuslike väärtuste moonutamisega

Ennuste,Ü. (2014) “Towards Special Methodological Problems of Macro-Optimal Sociocybernetic International Economic Sanctioning Coordination Modelling: Introductory Remarks oPreliminary Postulates and Conjectures.” – Baltic Journal of European Studies Tallinn University of Technology (ISSN 2228-0588), Vol. 4, No. 2 (17), 150-158:

http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT

Ennuste, Ü. and Rajasalu, T. (2002) „Critical Probability of the EU Eastern Enlargement Project’s Institutional Failure: Aspects of Calibrated Economic Impacts of the Failure.“  In: Aksel Kirch and Juhan Sillaste (eds.) Monitoring Preparations of Transition Countries for EU-Accession. 4th International Conference 4-6 October, 2002 Pärnu, Estonia, The Institute for European Studies, Tallinn, 212-227:

http://www.ies.ee/iesp/ennuste.pdf 

Freedman, Lawrence (2017) The Future of War: A History. By Lawrence Freedman. PublicAffairs: 400 pages; $30. Allen Lane; £25.

https://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21730133-lawrence-freedman-traces-long-history-predictionsrarely-correctthat-fighting-would-be:  “Today, advocates believe that another technological advance could fundamentally change the character of war. Unmanned systems equipped with artificial intelligence and varying degrees of autonomy suggest a future of war in which machines take the brunt of the fighting and make decisions at hyper-speed. Cyber-weapons that blind and disable the enemy’s own systems could become more important than physical violence in determining outcomes.

Will these technologies make war more likely by making it more acceptable? Sir Lawrence is sceptical. The bar for interstate wars between major powers will, mercifully, remain high thanks to the deterrent of nuclear weapons. On current trends, most wars will be civil wars in weak states, or “hybrid” wars in which cyber-disruption, false information and infiltration are the weapons of choice. Fighting is more likely to be in big cities than in open terrain, because that is where most people live. The battle of Mosul is a reminder of how lethal and destructive urban warfare remains for both fighters and civilians.

But even this is uncertain: the one thing that Sir Lawrence is sure of is that predictions of future war rarely get it right. His message to policymakers is to beware those who tout “the ease and speed with which victory can be achieved while underestimating the resourcefulness of adversaries”. Anybody who thinks otherwise should read this book.”

Kissinger, Henry (2014) „World Order“ Allen Lane: 420.

Analüüsib maailma poliit-institutsionaalseid disaine ning vastavaid kaasuseid – ei jäta märkimata ka meie 2007 aasta venepronksmäsu aegset venevalitsuse poolest diversioonilist küberrünnakut meie e-riigi vastu kui õppetundi vt:

Index lk 408 – Estonia, Russian cyberattac on, 345.

Tõsi – meie ITi mehed näivad sageli hindavat et see rünnak ei vääri vast enam märkimist eriti e-valimiste eelselt sest toimus primitiivsel tehnilisel tasemel.

Nt Jaak Ennuste: „ … DoS rünnakud olid Pronksiöö ajal (mitte DNS, …). Aga … need rünnakud koormavad vaid mingi veebilehe või teenuse üle ja see muutub kättesaamatuks. Aga see rünnak ei muuda ega lisa hääletustulemusi. … Eestis on nii, et kui arvutiga mingi diversiooni pärast valida ei saa, siis lähed jaoskonda ja demokraatia töötab.“

Kuid Kissinger’i selle poliitiliselt tõesti kaaluka raamatu (vt nt*) kontekstis on tuumarelvastuse ajastul mistahes piiriülesed diversioonid teise riigi siseasjadesse globaalse riskiga ning lubamatud – seda eriti seoses – nagu Kissinger peatükis „Cyber Thechnology and World Order“ lk350 väidab – et – Internetiajastul kus valitseb teadete/säutsude välküleküllus ning terrorist-trollide manipulatsioonid jne – paratamatult nii rahvuste arukus/tarkus kui riskiteadmus kärbuvad ning kah võimurite subjektiivne kiskjalik/militaarne otsustusloogika ja moraal võivad hägustuda globaalriskiliselt mitte-kompromislikuks – kui lastakse … (vt raamatust vastavat pragmaatilist pt lk 371-375 ).

*http://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/oct/01/world-order-by-henry-kissinger-review-account

„ … Kissinger was a key shaper of a world order that remained stable for a quarter century or more until our own post-cold war era. This urgently written book is a fine account of world order in the longue duree, and also a memorandum to future generations of policymakers that the next half-century will be no easier to manage than the most recent one.“

P.S.: vt kah http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/260e3168-b177-11e4-831b-00144feab7de.html#axzz3SGxYZuZu

P.S.: Nobelist Professor Kissinger (s 1923; Nobelist 1972) on olnud rahvusvaheliste tuumarelvakokkulepete pea-arhitekte – kuid ilmselt alates Putin’ist need kokkulepped enam ei pea ja seega ka Kissinger’i hinnangud selles monograafias totaalse tuumasõja puhkemise peaaegu 0-tõenäsusele ei pruugi enam paika pidada. Muide tänavu on Oxford university’s Future of Humanity Institute and the Global Challenges Foundation on välja tulnud apokalüptilise 0,005% hüpoteesiga (TF.com 13.II 15).

Lindmäe, Herbert (2015-1999) SUVESÕDA … 1941, Tartu, Estonia OÜ Greif: 4825lk (sic! – IX Köidet).

Autor rõhutab Teise Vabadussõja tingimustes eriti isiku kangelaslikkuse ning patriotismi väärtust ning selle hindamist.

Memo to 27.16 XI: XI, of the European Parliament of 23 October 16 Report A8-2016-0317

This paragraph 6 requires the EU/28-s here, particularly from third countries targeted for terrorist propaganda and the improvement of preventive action against it, especially on the Web:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=TA&reference=P8-TA-2016-0440&language=ET&ring=A8-2016-0317

Naevdal, Eric (2016) „Catastrophes and ex post shadow prices — How the value of the last fish in a lake is infinity and why we should not care (much)“ – Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Volume 132, Part B, December 2016, Pages 153–160: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.04.021

Abstract

Catastrophic risk is currently a hotly debated topic. This paper contributes to this debate by showing two results. First, it is shown that for a certain class of optimal control problems, the derivative of the value function with respect to the initial state may approach infinity as the state variable goes to zero, even when the first-order partial derivatives of the integrand and transition functions are finite. In the process, it is shown that standard phase diagrams used in optimal control theory contain more information than generally recognized and that the value function itself may be easily illustrated in these diagrams. Second, we show that even if the value function has an infinite derivative at some point, it is not correct to avoid this point in finite time at almost any cost. The results are illustrated in a simple linear-quadratic fisheries model and proven for a more general class of growth functions.

Perea, Andrés (2017) „Forward induction reasoning and correct beliefs“- Journal of Economic Theory 169: 489–516:  www.elsevier.com/locate/jet

Abstract

All equilibrium concepts implicitly make a correct beliefs assumption, stating that a player believes that his opponents are correct about his first-order beliefs. In this paper we show that in many dynamic games of interest, this correct beliefs assumption may be incompatible with a very basic form of forward induction reasoning: the first two layers of extensive-form rationalizability (Pearce, 1984;Battigalli, 1997, epistemically characterized by Battigalli and Siniscalchi, 2002). Hence, forward induction reasoning naturally leads us away from equilibrium reasoning. In the second part we classify the games for which equilibrium reasoning is consistent with this type of forward induction reasoning, and find that this class is very small.

©2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Schmid-Schmidsfelden, Hubertus; Irina Potapova (2016) The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing: Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU.Wilfried Martens, Centre for European Studies:

https://www.google.ee/search?q=martensctre%20eu%20publications%20bear%20sheeps%20clothing%20russias%20government%20funded%20organisations

 StratCom COE (UR15.III 2017) StratCom laughs. In search of an analytical framework – ISBN: 978-9934-564-12-3: http://www.stratcomcoe.org/publications

Toomse, Rene (2015) Defending Estonia in peace and war. Retaining a small state near the aggressive neighbor by utilizing unconventional strategies; (supervisor: Jyrki Käkönen) School of Governance, Law and Society, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia: 245:

http://www.etera.ee/zoom/8725/view?page=1&p=separate&view=0,0,2067,2834

Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (by 2015), “Economic shocks, the civil war and ethnicity” – the Journal of Development Economics 115:32-44:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleListURL&_method=list&_ArticleListID=-1175221378&_sort=r&_st=13&view=c&md5=d185b1e7697a1a536327b241f9e4dd3b&searchtype=a

Tongeren, Jan w., van Ruud Picavet (2016) “Bayesian estimation approach in the will; integration of the compilation and analysis “ – In the EURO, Eurostat — the Review is a National Accounts and are accompanied by Indicators: 7-49.

The White Book (2005): Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes in 1940-1991 “(2005), the State Committee on the Investigation into the Repression Policy of Occupation, Tallinn, Estonia: the Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers: 171:

http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

and/or

http://www.riigikogu.ee/public/Riigikogu/TheWhiteBook

 P.S. 13.X: Rahvusliku sotsiaalkapitali mõõtmisest:

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Vardarlıer,Pelin (2016) “Strategic approach to human resources management during Chrisis“ – Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, Volume 235, 24 November 2016, Pages 463-472.

 

Abstract

Human Resources Management is one of the most important units of modern firms and organizations. It gains even more

importance in times of crises, because it makes up an important dimension of crisis management. It is well known that human

resources policies have a great influence on people; therefore, those polices are to bring about humanistic consequences.

In this study, possible effects of always looming crises and ways to avoid or cope with those crises have been examined and

presented to readers. The study mainly focuses on the human resources strategies aspect of management at managing crises; and,

it compares classical and modern ways to handle the effects of crises on human capital.

© 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Keywords: Human resources management; Crisis management; Human resources strategies.

LISA: Jaak Uibu (29.IX 17) „Eesti rahvastikupoliitika kavand“

  1. MÕISTED:

Rahvastikupoliitika  on  riigi  sihiteadlik tegevus  rahvaarvu, selle demograafilise koosseisu ja regionaalse  paiknemise mõjutamisel. Selle alla kuulub  alla regionaalpoliitika, mille eesmärk on tagada piirkondlik areng.                                                                               

Rahvastikukriisi all mõistetakse rahvastiku demograafilist seisundit, mida iseloomustab sisemise taastepotentsiaali puudumine ja rahvastiku vananemine. Pikemas perspektiivis toob kriis kaasa (on juba toonud)  tööjõupuuduse ning töötajate suurema maksukoormuse, mida saab leevendada ainult tööjõu massilise impordiga. Sotsiaalteadlaste hinnangul saavutatakse nii küll lühiajaline tööjõuprobleemi leevenemine, kuid hiljem sünnib sellest tõsiseid pikaajalisi probleeme. Väikeste etnoste puhul kaasneb rahvaarvu vähenemine sellisel määral, et see ohustab ühe rahva etnose kultuuri jätkusuutlikkust. Eesti ja eestlaste kriitilist olukorda on vastava mõiste abil iseloomustatud 1990ndate algusest.

Rahvastikuseminaride idee on olemuselt innovaatiline  – lisaks ministeeriumi töös vajalikule   asjatundlikkusele  omandab paar inimest selle asutuse rahvastikuseminari käigus pädevuse ka rahvastikuküsimustes.  Seda saab  ministeerium edaspidi kasutada. Seminar käib koos paar  korda  kuus. Lihtsalt mõne ministeeriumi põhimäärus ei  saa olla takistuseks, sest EV põhiseadus   on õigusjõult alati kaalukam. Õppematerjalid on meil vähemal määral hetkel olemas ja  seminar toimub inimeste  tööajast.  Seminaris välja töötatud ettepanekud saadetakse edasi Peaministri rahvastikubüroole ja  Riigikogule. Rahvastikuseminari liikmete ettevalmistamiseks saab kasutada Riigikantselei Tippjuhtide kompetentsi keskuse  teenuseid.

(NB tõepoolest originaalne idee – sest traditsiooniliselt on mitmete parlamentide koosseisus statsionaarsed (mitte valimistega ideoloogis subjektiivselt ümbervahetatavad) teadusüksused :==) – üe)

Kultuur on kogu inimtegevuse otsene tulemus ja  mälu.  Kultuurist rääkides mõeldakse enamasti  selle all ikka mingit kultuurivaldkonna osa.  Kultuur on samas   ka protsess, mille käigus luuakse uusi väärtusi, kuid varasemalt kogutud varamu võib ka taastamatult  kaotsi minna. Eriti juhul, kui uue kultuuri väärtuste lisamisel ei osata/ei taheta vanu hoida. Kultuuri osa on ka rahvuse säilitamise teooria, metodoloogia ja metoodika. Euroopa tsivilisatsioon tugineb kristlikule kultuurile ja kristlikele väärtustele. (NB Lissaboni agenda järgi tugineb teaduspõhisusele – tõsiselt seda lauset tuleks vähemalt Presidendil korrigeerida – üe)

(NB kas ei võiks täiendada: „rahvuslik fertiilsus“, „rahvuslik lastetus“, „intensiivne ja ekstensiivne emadus ning nende määrad“ jne vaatamata sellele et meil regulaarne statistika näib puuduvat – “rahvusliku fertiilsuse stimuleerimise sotsiaal-küberneetilised mehhanismid (ainelised ning moraalsed” (nt Raute, okt 2017) jne – üe)

  1. PRINTSIIBID:

Inimene on looduse osa, sellest tuleneb  kohustus olla looduse hoidja, mitte isand (NB ??? mis teooria või usund see on – üe).  Hoida ja hoiatada on vaja  inimesi kurjuse ning  hääbumise eest. Oluline on see  eriti väikerahva puhul. (NB eriti oluline on hoida ja hoiatada inimesi katastroofide tingimustes – seega eriti hübriidsõja tingimustes. Zack (2009) järgi nendes tingimustes eetika nõuab nii rahva hoiatamist kui ka ettevalmistumist katastroofi võimaliku realiseerumistõenäosuse vähendamiseks ning tagajärgede leevendamiseks – sh eelmiste kogemuste täiendavat uurimist: antud juhul nt eriti Maarjamaa elanikkonna kaotusi Teises Vabadussõjas (vt eeskätt Lindmäe, 1999-2015) – ja sellest tulenevat eetost – üe)

EV Põhiseaduse preambula:   Kõikumatus usus ja vankumatus tahtes kindlustada   ja arendada riiki,  … mis peab tagama eesti rahvuse, keele ja kultuuri säilimise läbi aegade …   Põhiseaduse kommenteeritud väljaande (2017) preambulat käsitleva peatüki viimane lause   sätestab  1992.a. põhiseaduse preambula kohta : „Selgepiirilise formuleeringu sai   Eesti Vabariigi põhieesmärk: tagada eesti rahvuse ja kultuuri säilimine läbi aegade“. (NB ja läbi katastroofide (Soomre, 2015) – üe)

Kalev Katuse direktiiv – ühiskonna arengut tuleb käsitleda rahvastikukeskseltEesti edu mõõdetakse rahvastikuga. (NB peaks olema: „eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse indikaatoritega“ – üe)

Riigikogul ja Valitsusel ei ole mandaati alustada ressursimahukate suurrajatistega enne, kui rahvastiku kahanemine on peatatud.  (NB mis hägusloogika see selline on ja kuskohalt pärit –  taevane arm: kui just mõni suurrajatis (nt RB) aitab agressorit oluliselt täiendavalt heidutada? – üe)

 Rahvastikupoliitika on koordineeriva ülesandega ja ülimuslik teiste poliitikate suhtes; ta  on  pikaajaline ja erakonnaülene, teised poliitikad peaksid arvestama rahvastikupoliitiliste eesmärkidega.   (NB peaks olema erakonnaülene küll – aga mitmedki meie raskekaalu politikaanid tegelevad vabalt eestlusvaenulikult – selline tegevus tuleks kriminaliseerida ka Riigikogus – üe)                                                      .

Rahvastikukriis puudutab kogu elanikkonda ja  selle vastu tuleb rakendada kogu riigi ja elanikkonna potentsiaali,  iga inimene osaleb oma võimalustes. (NB kõigi positiivsete eestimeelsete jõudude poolt – üe)                                                                               .

  1. MEETODID

Üksikmeetmetega kriisi vastu ei saa. Eri valdkondade rahvastikuseminarides tuleb selgitada välja need asjaolud (näiteks ülereguleeritud majandus), mis soodustavad  või takistavad omarahvastiku taastet.  Ettepanekute esitamiseks ja ärakuulamiseks/arvestamiseks tuleb luua tõhusamad kanalid.                                                                                                 Rahvastikupoliitilised meetmed (vt punkt E.)  ja vastutus nende kasutamisel lepitakse kokku riigiasutuste vahel vastavalt nende profiilile. Mitmed meetmed on juba paigas, näit. laste ja perepoliitika on sotsiaalministeeriumi pädevuses.

Tänane seis on, et elanikkonna juurdekasvu eest  ei vastuta põhimääruste järgi mitte ükski konkreetne asutus, kuigi rahvastiku suurendamist  reklaamitakse avalikkusele  iga  ministeeriumi prioriteedina.

Eesti Vabariigi  põhieesmärgi täitmisel (tagada eesti rahvuse ja kultuuri säilimine läbi aegade)  on peamine  rahvastikupoliitiline  vastutus peaministri funktsioonil. (NB mitmetes tsiviliseerite riikides vist siiski eeskätt Tervishoiu Ministeeriumi pädevuses – üe)                                                           Teave rahvastikuküsimustes on avalik, infovahetus organisatsioonilises võrgus  kollegiaalne. (NB aga sotsiaalvõrgustikus? – üe)

  1. ORGANISATSIOONILINE STRUKTUUR (on veel kujunemisjärgus (NB peaasi et rahastamise küsimused oleks kindlalt paigas sest pragune käsitlus näib lõhnavat vaesrahastamise järgi? – üe))

Eesti rahvastiku toetusrühm Riigikogus (loodud 2015 Riigikogu liikme Rein Ratase  eestvõtul  ja Toompea Haridusseminari soovitusel).                                                                                Rahvastikukriisi komisjon Riigikogus (2017).                                                                               Peaministri  nõunik (Peaministri rahvastikubüroo)   ja juurdekutsutavad  rahvastikueksperdid. Rahvastikuseminarid  valitsusasutustes  ja ülikoolides.

  1. RAHVASTIKUPOLIITILISED MEETMED (loetelu ei ole lõplik – neid tuleb käsitleda pigem   näidetena;   ei ole järjekorrastatud, sageli  kattuvad)

1) Üldmeetmed,  mida vähemalt mõningal määral juba rakendatakse

Rahvatervise ja vaimse heaolu meetmed;                                                  Rahvastikukriisi põhjuste kindlakstegemine  [1) või 2) ?];    (NB juba teada nt et palgavaesus, suur majanduslik ebavõrdsus, väheefektiivsed rahvusliku fertiilsuse simuleerimise sotsiaal-küberneetilised mehhanismid (Raute, 2017) ning vastava regulaarse statistika vaegus – teaduskauge disfunktsionaalne üldine sotsiaal-küberneetiline mehhanism mis võimaldab/ärgitab kodumaisest majandusest maksustamata kasumeid sohiga piiritaha slikerdada, hübriidsõja ängid ja eriti terroristlik trollimine kremlistide poolt ning seega rahvusliku teadmusruumi hägustamine hirmutamisega (vt Chichilnisky) jne – üe)                                                              Organisatsioonilise struktuuri paikapanek ja arendus;

Rahvastikukesksuse tähtsustamine ühiskonnas;                                       Vaesuse vähendamine; (NB kohortide majandusliku ebavõrdsuse leevendamine nii sissetulekute kui varade osas – muide kodumajapidamise varade regulaarne statistika Eestis jällegi puudub – üe)

Laste-  ja perepoliitilised meetmed;

Rände optimeerimine, kõrgtehnoloogia  kasutamine   töökäte puudujäägi korvamisel;                                                                                   Toimiv regionaalpoliitika, regionaalsed maksuerisused     [1) või 2) ? (NB piirkondliku majandusliku ebavõrdsuse süvenemine tuleb viivitamatult teaduspõhiselt peatada ilma igasuguse uurimiseta – üe)];                                                                                                                  Meedia ümberhäälestus rahvastikupoliitika vajaduste arvestamiseks. (NB tuleb populismi- ja uskumus- ja nõidus-põhisuselt pöörata teaduspõhiseks – üe)

2) Spetsiifilised ja innovaatilised meetmed                                                                             

Eesti rahvastikutaaste regionaalprogramm ERARE  (valminud 2005.a.);                                                                                                          Esmassünnitajate keskmise vanuse langetamine;

Abortide  edasine vähendamine;                                                                  Abielulisuse tähtsustamine;   (NB fertiilse abielulisuse – üe)

LGBT tööjõu maksustamine;                                                                        Abinõud sündide edasilükkamise vastu;

Sotsiaalse õigluse nimel vanemahüvitise ülemmäära vähendamine 1-1,5 keskmise palgani;

Seadusaktide demograafilise  mõju hindamisel    demograafidelt  arvamuste tellimine;

Valglinnastumise  pidurdamine;

Poliitilise demograafia kujundamine;

Rahvas  vajab, et poliitikud ja  riigimehed näitaksid  perekonnaelus isiklikku eeskuju;  Riikliku vastutuse defineerimine ja sanktsioonide määratlemine;

Inimõiguste   ja –kohustuste tasakaalu saavutamine.

Koost. Jaak Uibu, 29.09.2017

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Kiirhinnang 21.IX 17

Kiri:  populaarne Bayes’lik RB kulutuste kriitilise lae osaline kiirpiirhinnang hübriidsõja eesrinde tingimustes

Postulaadid et (a) RB Projekt vähendab parajasti Bayes’i tõenäosust et hübriidsõda siin (Toomse, 2015) pöördub lisaks küberneetilisele ja sanktsioonilisele veel kineetiliseks – vähendab ca 5%: seega Bayes’likult/subjektiivselt oletades (2;3) protsendi punkti võrra (b) et kineetiline rünnak või etniline kodusõda oleks põliselanikkonnale katastroofiline: hukkuks (10;20)% (c) et rahvuslikult (eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse stabiilsuse seisukohalt) meie põliselaniku koguväärtuse (inim- ja sotsiaal-kapital paušaalselt) statistiline hinnang keskmiselt oleks: €10M (esmalähenduses: Zack ja Chichilnisky järgi vt viiteid – see ei ole kitsalt turumajanduslik inimkapitali hinnang – vaid eeskätt rahvusliku sotsiaalse (sh sigivuse) inimvara kui jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse peamise ressursi mahu hinnang nii statistiliselt kui ka eksperimentaalselt ning seda läheneva rahvusliku katastroofi hirmus).

Oletused et (A) katastroofi tagajärjel põliselanikkonna kaotuse Bayes’lik koguväärtuse hinnang oleks: €(1;2)tn (B) RB Projekt vähendaks seda €(20;60)B võrra: seega Projekti kogukulutused (rajamine+kahjumid) peavad alla jääma tinglikult (sõltuvalt olukordade edasisest kujunemisest) vahemikku 20 ja 60 miljardi euro mahus (C) selle informaalse käsitluse anomaalsus formaalsetest standard käsitlustest seisneb eeskätt selles et rahvusliku heaolu ootuste klassikalised teooriad/mudelid monotoonsete funktsioonide põhjal ei suuda adekvaatselt hinnata inimväärtust katastroofi ootuse tingimustes – õigemini – nendes mitte Bayes’likes teooriates toimub varjatult üldse katastroofide (Mustade Luikede) kui üliharva esinevate sündmuste elimineerimine – ja seega koondub tähelpanu marginaalsetele probleemidele nagu värske õhu hind jne (C) Ilmselt nii hübriidsõja (sh ka sanktsioonide dimensioonis – Ennuste, 2014) kui ka võimalike katastroofide puhul adekvaatsed mudelid peavad võimaldama kirjeldada arengu katkevust ning seoses sellega informaalsete endogeensete hindade hüppelisi tõuse seoses eksogeensete struktuursete kitsenduste (ka nn kriitiliste piiride (Ennuste&Rajasalu) järskudele muutustele).

Kõik piisavad osundused ning argumendid leiate:

https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/do-not-quote-18-xi-16/

Eriti olulised:

Ahlerup, Pelle; Gustav Hansson (2011) „Nationalism and government effectiveness“ – Journal of Comparative Economics Volume 39, Issue 3, September 2011, Pages 431–451.

A b s t r a c t

Nation-building is believed to have a positive influence on economic and political outcomes, especially in countries with ethnically fragmented populations. Yet nationalism, an indicator of successful nation-building, has been empirically linked to protectionism and intolerance, which suggests that dismal performance is a more likely outcome. This paper empirically identifies an inverted U-shaped relationship between nationalism and government effectiveness. The results suggest that the level of nationalism in the population is higher than optimal in most countries. It is further shown that nationalism may mitigate the negative effects of ethnic heterogeneity in former colonies. We find no clear linkages between nationalism and trade openness. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bosker, Maarten; Joppe de Ree (2014)) „Ethnicity and the spread of civil war“- Journal of Development Economics, Volume 108: 206-221.

Civil wars tend to cluster in particular areas of the world. We provide empirical evidence that cross-border conflict spillovers are an important factor in explaining this pattern. Moreover, we show that ethnicity plays a key role in conditioning the spread of civil wars. Only ethnic wars tend to spill over, and ethnic wars are more likely to spill over along ethnic lines. The latter result is robust to the inclusion of a host of (other) crossborder characteristics, such as geographical factors and trade intensity. We estimate that a neighboring ethnic civil war increases the risk of an outbreak of ethnic civil war on the home territory by 4–6% points.

© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chanel, Oliver; Graciela Chichilnisky (2013) „Valuing life: Experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events“ – Ecological Economics 85: 198–205: doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.03.004

Chichilnisky, Graciela; Kristen A. Sheeran (2013) „A changing climate in economics: Responses to crisis“ –  Ecological Economics, Volume 85: 143-144.

 

„ … This article (Chanel&Chichilnisky, 2013 – üe) argues that global environmental phenomena like climate change, major extinction events or flutype pandemics can have catastrophic consequences, but catastrophes are either ignored or underestimated in standard economic decision theory under uncertainty that emerged from the theoretical structure introduced by Von Neumann and Morgenstern. By assessing the outcomes involved and their probabilities – especially those concerning human life – the standard economic theory of choice under uncertainty is supposed to yield optimal decisions. However, the widely used expected utility theory values life in terms of the low probability of death someone would be willing to accept in order to receive extra payment. Common sense and experimental evidence refute this way of valuing life. This article provides a theoretical alternative tested through experimental evidence. It reports on people’s unwillingness to accept a low probability of death that is contrary to expected utility predictions. The article is based on new axioms of choice under uncertainty defined by Chichilnisky (1996, 2009), and it focuses on a new axiom that extends those of Von Neumann and Morgenstern allowing extreme responses to extreme events, fully characterizing the choice criteria that these new axioms imply. The authors show that the implied decision criteria are a combination of expected utility

with extreme responses, and they demonstrate experimentally that

these criteria – which are new in the literature – are more consistent

with experimental observations about how humans make decisions

when faced with catastrophic events such as death. From this emerges a new way to value life, using new experimental evidence as well as new theoretical foundations. …“

Chichilnisky, Graciela  (2010) „The foundations of statistics with black swans“ –

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2009.09.007Get rights and content

Abstract

We extend the foundation of statistics to integrate rare events that are potentially catastrophic, called black swans.These include natural hazards, regime change in complex systems, market crashes, catastrophic climate change and major episodes of species extinction. Classic statistics and physics treat such events as ‘outliers’ and often disregard them. We propose a new axiomatization of subjective probability requiring equal treatment for rare and frequent events, and characterize the likelihoods or subjective probabilities that the axioms imply. These coincide with countably additive measures and yield normal distributions when the sample has no black swans. When the sample includes black swans, the new likelihoods are represented by a combination of countable and finitely additive measures with both parts present. The axioms were introduced in Chichilnisky (2000, 2002); they extend the axiomatic foundations of Savage (1954)Villegas (1964) and Arrow (1971) and they are valid for bounded and unbounded samples (Chichilnisky, 1996b). The finitely additive measures assign more weight to rare events than do standard distributions and in that sense explain the persistent observation of power laws and ‘heavy tails’ that eludes classic theory.

Chichilnisky, Graciela (2009) „The topology of fear“ – Journal of Mathematical Economics 45:  807–816.

A b s t r a c t

For many years experimental observations have raised questions about the rationality of economic agents—for example, the Allais Paradox or the Equity Premium Puzzle. The probleem is a narrow notion of rationality that disregards fear. This article extends the notion of rationality with new axioms of choice under uncertainty and the decision criteria they imply (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). In the absence of catastrophes, the old and the newapproach coincide, and both lead to standard expected utility. A sharp difference emerges when facing rare events with important consequences, or catastrophes. Theorem 1 establishes that a classic axiom of choice under uncertainty – Arrow’s Monotone Continuity axiom, or its relatives introduced by DeGroot, Villegas, Hernstein and Milnor – postulate rational behavior that is ‘insensitive’ to rare events as defined in (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). Theorem 2 replaces this axiom with another that allows extreme responses to extreme events, and characterizes the implied decision criteria as a combination of expected utility with extremal responses. Theorems 1 and 2 offer a new understanding of rationality consistent with previously unexplained observations about decisions involving rare and catastrophic events, decisions involving fear, the Equity Premium Puzzle, ‘jump diffusion’ processes and ‘heavy tails’, and it agrees with (Debreu, G., 1953. Valuation equilibrium and Pareto optimum. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 40, 588–592) formulation of market behavior and his proof of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand theorem.

© 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

le Carrè, John (2017 Sept 7) A Legasy of Spies. Kindle

Interweaving past with present so that each may tell its own intense story, John le Carré has spun a single plot as ingenious and thrilling as the two predecessors on which it looks back: The Spy Who Came in from the Cold and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. In a story resonating with tension, humor and moral ambivalence, le Carré and his narrator Peter Guillam present the reader with a legacy of unforgettable characters old and new…

Clinton, Hillary Rodham (2017 12.IX) What Happened. Kindle Edition.

Amazon: “ … She lays out how the 2016 election was marked by an unprecedented assault on our democracy by a foreign adversary (Sic! üe). By analyzing the evidence and connecting the dots, Hillary shows just how dangerous the forces are that shaped the outcome, and why Americans need to understand them to protect our values and our democracy in the future. … “

NB: kübersõda infomanipuleerimisega kahjustab rahvuslikku sotsiaalkapitali nii rahvusliku teadmusruumi hägustamisega kui ka rahvuslike väärtuste moonutamisega

Ennuste,Ü. (2014) “Towards Special Methodological Problems of Macro-Optimal Sociocybernetic International Economic Sanctioning Coordination Modelling: Introductory Remarks oPreliminary Postulates and Conjectures.” – Baltic Journal of European Studies Tallinn University of Technology (ISSN 2228-0588), Vol. 4, No. 2 (17), 150-158:

http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT

Ennuste, Ü. and Rajasalu, T. (2002) „Critical Probability of the EU Eastern Enlargement Project’s Institutional Failure: Aspects of Calibrated Economic Impacts of the Failure.“  In: Aksel Kirch and Juhan Sillaste (eds.) Monitoring Preparations of Transition Countries for EU-Accession. 4th International Conference 4-6 October, 2002 Pärnu, Estonia, The Institute for European Studies, Tallinn, 212-227:

http://www.ies.ee/iesp/ennuste.pdf ,

Kissinger, Henry (2014) „World Order“ Allen Lane: 420

Analüüsib maailma poliit-institutsionaalseid disaine ning vastavaid kaasuseid – ei jäta märkimata ka meie 2007 aasta venepronksmäsu aegset venevalitsuse poolest diversioonilist küberrünnakut meie e-riigi vastu kui õppetundi vt:

Index lk 408 – Estonia, Russian cyberattac on, 345.

Tõsi – meie ITi mehed näivad sageli hindavat et see rünnak ei vääri vast enam märkimist eriti e-valimiste eelselt sest toimus primitiivsel tehnilisel tasemel.

Nt Jaak Ennuste: „ … DoS rünnakud olid Pronksiöö ajal (mitte DNS, …). Aga … need rünnakud koormavad vaid mingi veebilehe või teenuse üle ja see muutub kättesaamatuks. Aga see rünnak ei muuda ega lisa hääletustulemusi. … Eestis on nii, et kui arvutiga mingi diversiooni pärast valida ei saa, siis lähed jaoskonda ja demokraatia töötab.“

Kuid Kissinger’i selle poliitiliselt tõesti kaaluka raamatu (vt nt*) kontekstis on tuumarelvastuse ajastul mistahes piiriülesed diversioonid teise riigi siseasjadesse globaalse riskiga ning lubamatud – seda eriti seoses – nagu Kissinger peatükis „Cyber Thechnology and World Order“ lk350 väidab – et – Internetiajastul kus valitseb teadete/säutsude välküleküllus ning terrorist-trollide manipulatsioonid jne – paratamatult nii rahvuste arukus/tarkus kui riskiteadmus kärbuvad ning kah võimurite subjektiivne kiskjalik/militaarne otsustusloogika ja moraal võivad hägustuda globaalriskiliselt mitte-kompromislikuks – kui lastakse … (vt raamatust vastavat pragmaatilist pt lk 371-375 ).

*) http://www.theguardian.com/books/2014/oct/01/world-order-by-henry-kissinger-review-account

„ … Kissinger was a key shaper of a world order that remained stable for a quarter century or more until our own post-cold war era. This urgently written book is a fine account of world order in the longue duree, and also a memorandum to future generations of policymakers that the next half-century will be no easier to manage than the most recent one.“

P.S.: vt kah http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/260e3168-b177-11e4-831b-00144feab7de.html#axzz3SGxYZuZu

P.S.: Nobelist Professor Kissinger (s 1923; Nobelist 1972) on olnud rahvusvaheliste tuumarelvakokkulepete pea-arhitekte – kuid ilmselt alates Putin’ist need kokkulepped enam ei pea ja seega ka Kissinger’i hinnangud selles monograafias totaalse tuumasõja puhkemise peaaegu 0-tõenäsusele ei pruugi enam paika pidada. Muide tänavu on Oxford university’s Future of Humanity Institute and the Global Challenges Foundation on välja tulnud apokalüptilise 0,005% hüpoteesiga (TF.com 13.II 15).

Lindmäe, Herbert (2015-1999) SUVESÕDA … 1941, Tartu, Estonia OÜ Greif: the 4825lk (sic! – IX Köidet).

Autor rõhutab Teise Vabadussõja tingimustes eriti isiku kangelaslikkuse ning patriotismi väärtust ning selle hindamist.

Memo to 27.16 XI: XI, of the European Parliament of 23 October 16 Report A8-2016-0317

This paragraph 6 requires the EU/28-s here, particularly from third countries targeted for terrorist propaganda and the improvement of preventive action against it, especially on the Web:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=TA&reference=P8-TA-2016-0440&language=ET&ring=A8-2016-0317

Naevdal, Eric (2016) „Catastrophes and ex post shadow prices — How the value of the last fish in a lake is infinity and why we should not care (much)“ – Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Volume 132, Part B, December 2016, Pages 153–160: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.04.021

Abstract

Catastrophic risk is currently a hotly debated topic. This paper contributes to this debate by showing two results. First, it is shown that for a certain class of optimal control problems, the derivative of the value function with respect to the initial state may approach infinity as the state variable goes to zero, even when the first-order partial derivatives of the integrand and transition functions are finite. In the process, it is shown that standard phase diagrams used in optimal control theory contain more information than generally recognized and that the value function itself may be easily illustrated in these diagrams. Second, we show that even if the value function has an infinite derivative at some point, it is not correct to avoid this point in finite time at almost any cost. The results are illustrated in a simple linear-quadratic fisheries model and proven for a more general class of growth functions.

Perea, Andrés (2017) „Forward induction reasoning and correct beliefs“- Journal of Economic Theory 169: 489–516:  www.elsevier.com/locate/jet

Abstract

All equilibrium concepts implicitly make a correct beliefs assumption, stating that a player believes that his opponents are correct about his first-order beliefs. In this paper we show that in many dynamic games of interest, this correct beliefs assumption may be incompatible with a very basic form of forward induction reasoning: the first two layers of extensive-form rationalizability (Pearce, 1984;Battigalli, 1997, epistemically characterized by Battigalli and Siniscalchi, 2002). Hence, forward induction reasoning naturally leads us away from equilibrium reasoning. In the second part we classify the games for which equilibrium reasoning is consistent with this type of forward induction reasoning, and find that this class is very small.

©2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Schmid-Schmidsfelden, Hubertus; Irina Potapova (2016) The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing: Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU.Wilfried Martens, Centre for European Studies:

https://www.google.ee/search?q=martensctre%20eu%20publications%20bear%20sheeps%20clothing%20russias%20government%20funded%20organisations

 StratCom COE (UR15.III 2017) StratCom laughs. In search of an analytical framework – ISBN: 978-9934-564-12-3: http://www.stratcomcoe.org/publications

Toomse, Rene (2015) Defending Estonia in peace and war. Retaining a small state near the aggressive neighbor by utilizing unconventional strategies; (supervisor: Jyrki Käkönen) School of Governance, Law and Society, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia: 245:

http://www.etera.ee/zoom/8725/view?page=1&p=separate&view=0,0,2067,2834

Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (by 2015), “Economic shocks, the civil war and ethnicity” – the Journal of Development Economics 115:32-44:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleListURL&_method=list&_ArticleListID=-1175221378&_sort=r&_st=13&view=c&md5=d185b1e7697a1a536327b241f9e4dd3b&searchtype=a

Tongeren, Jan w., van Ruud Picavet (2016) “Bayesian estimation approach in the will; integration of the compilation and analysis “ – In the EURO, Eurostat — the Review is a National Accounts and are accompanied by Indicators: 7-49.

Zack, Naomi (2009) Ethics for Disaster. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA):164, Kindle.
Ethics for Disaster addresses the moral aspects of hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, plane crashes, Avian Flu pandemics, and other disasters. Naomi Zack explores how these catastrophes illuminate the existing inequalities in society. By employing the moral systems of utilitarianism, deontology, and virtue ethics to analyze the consequences of recent natural disasters, Zack reveals the special plight of the poor, disabled, and infirm when tragedy strikes. Zack explores the political foundations of social contract theory and dignitarianism and invites readers to rethink the distinction between risk in normal times and risk in disaster. Using both real life and fictional examples, Zack forcefully argues for the preservation of normal moral principles in times of national crisis and emergency, stressing the moral obligation of both individuals and government in preparing for and responding to disaster (https://books.google.ee/books?isbn=0742564959  

NB: Tegemist on keskmiste hindadega – seega autor küll vihjab asjaolule et nt eliidi puhul on tegemist suuremate väärtustega – kuid ei erista nt positiivse ja negatiivse aktiivsusega tüüpe; muide Wiener (1948) juba homoöostaasi mudelites (sotiaalküberneetilistes tasakaalu mudelites mis sisaldavad ka sotsiaalseid mehhanisme) eristas nii sulisid kui ka lolle. Lindmäe (2015: lk538) rõhutab eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse kindlustamisel võitlejate kangelaslikkuse erilist väärtustamist.

The White Book (2005): Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes in 1940-1991 “(2005), the State Committee on the Investigation into the Repression Policy of Occupation, Tallinn, Estonia: the Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers: 171:

http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

and/or

http://www.riigikogu.ee/public/Riigikogu/TheWhiteBook

Vabandusi: nt taolised kirjad FT veergudel nõuavad tosinate asjatundjate allkirju – antud juhul on need asendatud (laiendatud) osundustega; Bayes’i printsiibi rakendamisest triviaalsetel juhtudel on tuhandeid võrguteavikuid – komplitseeritud probleemide puhul (nt inimese väärtus küberneetilises hübriidsõjas ning rahvusliku katastroofi lähenemise hirmus jne) on tänaseni hägus ning problemaatiline ja seda isegi Bayes’likult (vt nt Tongeren&Picavet, 2016).

LISA 1.X 17

Kuidas meil selle teadusasjaga ikka on – eriti arvestades hübriid-sotsiaal-küber-sõjas meie eesrindel olekut ning samuti mõne võimaliku rahvusliku katastroofi lähenemise ängides – kas meil ainult turumajanduslikud ainelised vidanad ongi kõik võimalikud teaduspõhised „Tooted“: (a) kas rahvuslikud Kultuurid, Eetosed, Sotsiaalkapitalid, Sotsiaal-Küberneetilised Institutsioonid ning Mehhanismid (nt maksusüsteemid) ongi puhtalt ainult populist-poliitikute matemaatikavabad spontaansed loomingud (b) muide teaduspublikatsioonide juurde lisavad teaduskirjastused parajasti mingeid „Mõjuindekseid“ – mis tähendus nendel võiks olla? (c) ja lõpuks rahvusliku Kogu Inimvara (sh kapitali) väärtus (mitte ainult kitsalt formaalses turumajanduslikus mõistes) – kas see ei olegi meil kuidagi põhjuslikult seostatav rahvusliku teadmusstruktuuri väärtusega ning seega vastavate investeeringute vaegintensiivsusega?

Sharvit, Keren (2014) „How conflict begets conflict: Activation of the ethos of conflict in times of distress in a society involved in an intractable conflict“ – Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 55: 252–261.

Abstract

The research addressed the possible association between distress and the Ethos of Conflict (EOC), a system of shared beliefs that characterizes societies involved in intractable conflicts. It is argued that the EOC may assist processes of copingwith distress and therefore will be activated in times of distress. Three studies were conducted with samples of Israeli Jews,who are involved in an intractable conflictwith the Palestinians. Studies 1a and 1b

demonstrated that conditions of high (vs. low) distress, either related or unrelated to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, increased EOC activation but not self-reported EOC adherence. Study 2 demonstrated that the activation of the EOC under distress facilitated processing of EOC-consistent information and hindered processing of EOC contradicting information. The findings are consistent with the notion that the EOC may play a role in doping with distress, but this association may pose a barrier to peaceful conflict resolution.

© 2014 Published by Elsevier Inc

Narang, Vipin; Caitlin Talmadge (2017) „Civil-military Pathologies and Defeat in War“:

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0022002716684627 (2.947 Impact Factor)

Abstract

This article uses an original data set, the Wartime Civil-military Relations Data Set, to test arguments about the causes of victory and defeat in war. Our analysis provides strong initial support for the notion that civil-military relations powerfully shape state prospects for victory and defeat. Specifically, states whose militaries have a significant internal role or whose regimes engage in coup-proofing appear to have a substantially lower probability of winning interstate wars, even when we account for the role of other important variables, including regime type and material capabilities. Crucially, our measures of civil-military relations include coup incidence but also move beyond it to detect more subtle indicators of civil-military relations. The resulting analysis should give us confidence in acknowledging the importance of nonmaterial variables in explaining war outcomes, while also paving the way for further research that can utilize and extend the data …

September 21, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

NB: 9.ix 2017

NB: Kas riskida e-valimistega või mitte – kitsendusel et Eesistumisel Valitsus ei lagune

Teaduslikult on selle e-valimiste riskiprobleemi* ratsionaalne (mitte-poliitiline või populistlik – kuid loomulikult poliitiliste kitsendustega) lahendamine üsana lihtne eeskätt nn moodsate katastroofi teooriate alusel mis hõlmavad mudelites nt ka Musta Luige (ID kaardi nõrkuse (MLID)) olulist tõenäosust** ja seega ka oota- ja vaata- lahendeid. Ülelihtsustatud kujul nt Bayes’i printsiibi*** alusel arvestades aposteriori tõenäose hindamisel meie peale 2014. ID kaardi nõrkuse parajasti hiljutist ilmsiks tulekut – kuid nt** alusel ilmselt taolisel lihtsustatud käsitlusel MLID probleem ekslikult elimineeritakse .

*) Ajalehed ja MLID

ttps://www.ft.com/content/874359dc-925b-11e7-a9e6-11d2f0ebb7f0 ja

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/feuilleton/debatten/estland-sicherheitsluecke-bei-elektronischen-personalausweisen-15186516.html

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/parteien-zeigen-im-internet-wahlkampf-wenig-mut-15168510.html

http://pluss.postimees.ee/4238025/vastasele-kasulik-risk-avalikustati-ajaga-voidu-joostes?_ga=2.140402865.308016313.1498803753-219461728.1498803748

**) Uurimused:

Akerlof, Georg; Robert Shiller (2015) Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, ISBN: 9781400873265 Princeton University Press, Princeton, NY and Kindle Edition: 280.

“Akerlof and Shiller extend the standard ‘market failure’ theory–which says that there is a potential role for government intervention when markets fail–by showing that markets fail not only because of the familiar reasons of externalities and unfair income distribution, but also because of the pervasive phenomenon of ‘phishing for phools’ (profit-seeking through manipulation and deception). They point the way to a new paradigm freed from the constraints of market failure theory, able to illuminate ‘control by capital’ (partly through phishing) and to prescribe for ‘control of capital’ (partly by techniques for limiting phishing suggested here).” – Robert H. Wade, London School of Economics.

Chanel, Oliver; Graciela Chichilnisky (2013) „Valuing life: Experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events“ – Ecological Economics 85: 198–205: doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.03.004

Chichilnisky, Graciela  (2010) „The foundations of statistics with black swans“ –

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2009.09.007Get rights and content

Abstract

We extend the foundation of statistics to integrate rare events that are potentially catastrophic, called black swans.These include natural hazards, regime change in complex systems, market crashes, catastrophic climate change and major episodes of species extinction. Classic statistics and physics treat such events as ‘outliers’ and often disregard them. We propose a new axiomatization of subjective probability requiring equal treatment for rare and frequent events, and characterize the likelihoods or subjective probabilities that the axioms imply. These coincide with countably additive measures and yield normal distributions when the sample has no black swans. When the sample includes black swans, the new likelihoods are represented by a combination of countable and finitely additive measures with both parts present. The axioms were introduced in Chichilnisky (2000, 2002); they extend the axiomatic foundations of Savage (1954)Villegas (1964) and Arrow (1971) and they are valid for bounded and unbounded samples (Chichilnisky, 1996b). The finitely additive measures assign more weight to rare events than do standard distributions and in that sense explain the persistent observation of power laws and ‘heavy tails’ that eludes classic theory.

Chichilnisky, Graciela (2009) „The topology of fear“ – Journal of Mathematical Economics 45:  807–816.

A b s t r a c t

For many years experimental observations have raised questions about the rationality of economic agents—for example, the Allais Paradox or the Equity Premium Puzzle. The probleem is a narrow notion of rationality that disregards fear. This article extends the notion of rationality with new axioms of choice under uncertainty and the decision criteria they imply (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). In the absence of catastrophes, the old and the newapproach coincide, and both lead to standard expected utility. A sharp difference emerges when facing rare events with important consequences, or catastrophes. Theorem 1 establishes that a classic axiom of choice under uncertainty – Arrow’s Monotone Continuity axiom, or its relatives introduced by DeGroot, Villegas, Hernstein and Milnor – postulate rational behavior that is ‘insensitive’ to rare events as defined in (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). Theorem 2 replaces this axiom with another that allows extreme responses to extreme events, and characterizes the implied decision criteria as a combination of expected utility with extremal responses. Theorems 1 and 2 offer a new understanding of rationality consistent with previously unexplained observations about decisions involving rare and catastrophic events, decisions involving fear, the Equity Premium Puzzle, ‘jump diffusion’ processes and ‘heavy tails’, and it agrees with (Debreu, G., 1953. Valuation equilibrium and Pareto optimum. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 40, 588–592) formulation of market behavior and his proof of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand theorem.

© 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

le Carrè, John (2017 Sept 7) A Legasy of Spies. Kindle

Interweaving past with present so that each may tell its own intense story, John le Carré has spun a single plot as ingenious and thrilling as the two predecessors on which it looks back: The Spy Who Came in from the Cold and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. In a story resonating with tension, humor and moral ambivalence, le Carré and his narrator Peter Guillam present the reader with a legacy of unforgettable characters old and new..

Ennuste,Ü. (2014) “Towards Special Methodological Problems of Macro-Optimal Sociocybernetic International Economic Sanctioning Coordination Modelling: Introductory Remarks oPreliminary Postulates and Conjectures.” – Baltic Journal of European Studies Tallinn University of Technology (ISSN 2228-0588), Vol. 4, No. 2 (17), 150-158:

http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT

Ennuste, Ü. and Rajasalu, T. (2002) „Critical Probability of the EU Eastern Enlargement Project’s Institutional Failure: Aspects of Calibrated Economic Impacts of the Failure.“  In: Aksel Kirch and Juhan Sillaste (eds.) Monitoring Preparations of Transition Countries for EU-Accession. 4th International Conference 4-6 October, 2002 Pärnu, Estonia, The Institute for European Studies, Tallinn, 212-227: http://www.ies.ee/iesp/ennuste.pdf

Perea, Andrés (2017) „Forward induction reasoning and correct beliefs“- Journal of Economic Theory 169: 489–516:  www.elsevier.com/locate/jet

Abstract

All equilibrium concepts implicitly make a correct beliefs assumption, stating that a player believes that his opponents are correct about his first-order beliefs. In this paper we show that in many dynamic games of interest, this correct beliefs assumption may be incompatible with a very basic form of forward induction reasoning: the first two layers of extensive-form rationalizability (Pearce, 1984;Battigalli, 1997, epistemically characterized by Battigalli and Siniscalchi, 2002). Hence, forward induction reasoning naturally leads us away from equilibrium reasoning. In the second part we classify the games for which equilibrium reasoning is consistent with this type of forward induction reasoning, and find that this class is very small.

©2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

 

***) ENE Köide 1 (1985)**** lk488: e.k ilmselt esimest korda üldteaduslikus teatmeteoses on Bayes’i valem avaldatud (lihtsustatud kujul ja märkusega et tegu on „inglise matemaatikuga“ 1702-61 – tegelikult sovjeti okupatsiooni ajal tuli varjata et tegemist oli ikkagi eeskätt anglikaani kirikutegelasega)

****) Mitmesugust:

PM elu24 6.IX 2017 vt fotot kuidas meie theadusmin ENE/EE 10 Köidete rahvuslikku Varumit  prügiurni „salvestas“: vt LISA.

PS 8.IX: (a) Kõigepealt täpsustada tuleks et kui suure tõenäosusega võib tegemist olla vaenuliku strateegilise kommunikatsiooni manipulatsiooniga (vt nt Akerlof&Shiller, 2015) ja reeturite (le Carrè, 2017) igat masti ja kaliibrit negatiivse aktiivsusega – sest ära ei tohi unustada et oleme parajasti hübriidsõja sanktsioonide sektoris mitmes dimensioonis eesrindel (Ennuste, 2014) – eriti ka ideoloogia ning küberrindel – ja seega eriti sattuda  manipuleeritud tasakaalu (Perea, 2017)  (b) seega on mängus arvukalt kiskjalikke agente/tüüpe kes püüavad meie institutsionaalseid küberneetilisi nõrkuseid ära kasutada külvates meie rahvuslikku teadmusruumi hägusust ning katastroofi hirmu mida traditsioonilised heaoluteooriad ei pruugi adekvaatselt käsitleda (vt Chichlinski, 2009) ja  eriti kompetentse  le Carrè (2017) jne tekstidest) ja seega ka meie tähelpanu kõrvale juhtida meie rahvuslike sotsiaal-küberneetiliste mitmete rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse seisukohalt eksistentsiaalsete mehhanismide teaduslagedast disunktsionaalsusest ning ka sellest et e-valimistel on veel muid riske peale ID nõrkuste ning meil on seega tegelikult MLID puhul tõenäosuse täiendava suurenemise risk sattuda võltstasakaalu lõksu (Perea, 2017)  (c) nt kuigi meil II kv 2017 majandusaktiivsuse juurdekasvu määr oli pealiskaudselt OK: GDP 5,2% (Eurostat 8.IX 17)  – ja mahuliselt p.c EL/28 keskmisele üsna lähedal – siis samas sügavamalt lähenemiselt näeme et rahvuslike ressursside kõlvatu väljalekkimine meie kodumaisest majandusest oli meil kahetsusväärselt mahukas – eriti haritud põliselanikest tööjõu väljarände (Eurostati järgi põliselanike positiivne efektiivsus on keskmiselt kõrgem kui immigrantidel) ning finantsressursside osas: eriti välismaale netolaenude siirdamisel (vt ESA Kogumajanduse II Kv statistika Tabelit) ja seega ka GDP potentsiaali kahandavalt – järelikult ka eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosust õõnestavalt.

PSPS 9.IX: Momendil on meil MLID kohta teada et mitte eriti usaldusväärsest nukatagusest institutsioonist teatati/õngitseti et eksisteerib teoreetiline katastroofiline e-valimiste risk – ning selle realiseerimine agressorite poolt oleks nendele ääretult kallis (vist Eesti näitel 60 miljardi euro ringis*) – mingeid usaldusväärseid andmeid vist veel ei ole ka MLID riski võimaliku realiseerumise tõenäosuse kohta. Samas on teada* et meil tehakse jõulisi pingutusi selle riski võimalike füüsiliste põhjuste kõrvaldamiseks. Samuti ei ole veel kuulda mingeid usaldusväärseid hinnanguid et kui suurte kahjudega ning milliste tõenäosustega (nii maineliste/moraalsete kui ainelistega/finantslistega  – ja – nii meie kohalike kui ka liidulistega) – tuleks arvestada e-valimiste tühistamisel.

Kokkuvõttes moodsa sotsiaal-küberneetilise stohhastilise optimeerimise rakursist võib suure tõenäosusega väita – et eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse seisukohalt ratsionaalne strateegia oleks adaptiivne – ehk ootame ja vaatame veel kuidas tõenäosed edaspidi kujunevad sest pragu need ei näi üldsegi mitte kriitilistena (Ennuste&Rajasalu, 2002) – ehk ootame ja vaatame lõpliku otsustusega niikaua kuni jõuame sillani (autor on täiesti teadlik et see ei ole ratsionaalne ei poliitoponentide ega agressoritele jne natsionaalselt negatiivsete tüüpidele ning euroliidu lõhestajatele jne).

 

LISA: Lihtsustatud Bayes’lik spämmi filtreering

Algoritmi***** alusel tähendagu: A – väidetav e-kiri vihjega – et ID turvaaugu olemasolu on Musta Luige kaliibris oht – on spämm aprioorse tõenäosusega 0,9 (***** alusel); X – e- kirjas on teatavad sõnad –           X( kuuekümne miljardi euro ringis, autoritel pole veel õigust turvaaugu olemasolu väite/hüpoteesi tõestust esitada, jne; nüüd Bayes’i lihtsustatud valemi järgi kus Pr on tõenäosuse operaator – on spämmi aposterioorse tõenäosuse väärtus:
    Pr(A/X)=Pr(X/A)Pr(A):Pr(X) –  ja – ekspertlikult kalibreeritult Pr(A/X)=0,9×0,8:0,75=0,96.
 
*****) https://betterexplained.com/articles/an-intuitive-and-short-explanation-of-bayes-theorem/
„ … Bayesian Spam Filtering

One clever application of Bayes’ Theorem is in spam filtering. We have

  • Event A: The message is spam.
  • Test X: The message contains certain words (X)

Plugged into a more readable formula (from Wikipedia):

Bayesian filtering allows us to predict the chance a message is really spam given the “test results” (the presence of certain words). Clearly, words like “viagra” have a higher chance of appearing in spam messages than in normal ones.

Spam filtering based on a blacklist is flawed — it’s too restrictive and false positives are too great. But Bayesian filtering gives us a middle ground — we use probabilities. As we analyze the words in a message, we can compute the chance it is spam (rather than making a yes/no decision). If a message has a 99.9% chance of being spam, it probably is. As the filter gets trained with more and more messages, it updates the probabilities that certain words lead to spam messages. Advanced Bayesian filters can examine multiple words in a row, as another data point.

Further Reading

There’s a lot being said about Bayes:

September 9, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Note 4.IX 17

This Note takes radom stock of some last publications released on theoretical insights from modern national sustainabilty socio-cybernetic toolskits

 

Gouveia, Valdiney V.; Taciano L. Milfont, Valeschka M. Guerra (2014)  „Functional theory of human values: Testing its content and structure hypotheses“ – Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 60: 41-47.

A b s t r a c t

A theoretical analysis of the functions values fulfill is described by focusing on two widely accepted value functions: values guide actions and express needs. The interplay between these two functions yields a three-by-two framework differentiating values according to their pursued goals (personal, central or social goals) or their expressed needs (survival or thriving needs). The three-by-two framework results in six subfunctions or basic values (structure hypothesis) assessed with specific marker values vorming the Basic Values Survey (content hypothesis). The present paper tests these theoretical hypotheses in a

large national sample of Brazilian physicians (N = 13,414). The results support both hypotheses and proovide further empirical evidence for the functional theory of values. Discussion centers on the theory as a refinement of existing value models due to its parsimonious and theoretically-driven approach, and its merit as an additional theoretical tool for understanding the structure of the value domain.

_ 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

Anna J. Wieczorek, Anna J. (2017) „Sustainability transitions in developing countries: Major insights and their implications for research and policy“- Environmental Science and Policy … :

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901117308092/pdfft?md5=356d4ddaa43abb991df16df4181cb015&pid=1-s2.0-S1462901117308092-main.pdf

Abstract

Sustainability transitions literature is a rapidly growing and influential field of research. It argues for a radical change of systems providing human needs. Being triggered by the negative implications of the Western post-war model of development, major transition frameworks such as multilevel perspective, strategic niche management or transition management have been widely used to clarify and motivate socio-technical transformations in mainly more economically developed world. Because of their sustainability appeal, however, transition perspectives began to be applied in developing countries. This paper takes stock of and systematises the theoretical insights from this application. Using systematic review method of 115 publications released in the last decade,

the paper discusses novel methodological and conceptual lessons around: experimentation and upscaling; stability, change and power; regime uniformity; contextual forces; path-dependence; transnational linkages; normatiive orientation and other aspects. Although the identified insights confirm the middle range character of the transition theory, they force some reflexivity and raise new research questions for both contexts. The paper also

identifies a few policy implication for international organisations, donors, governments and civil society organisations.

Bosker, Maarten; Joppe de Ree (2014)) „Ethnicity and the spread of civil war“- Journal of Development Economics, Volume 108: 206-221.

Civil wars tend to cluster in particular areas of the world. We provide empirical evidence that cross-border conflict spillovers are an important factor in explaining this pattern. Moreover, we show that ethnicity plays a key role in conditioning the spread of civil wars. Only ethnic wars tend to spill over, and ethnic wars are more likely to spill over along ethnic lines. The latter result is robust to the inclusion of a host of (other) crossborder characteristics, such as geographical factors and trade intensity. We estimate that a neighboring ethnic civil war increases the risk of an outbreak of ethnic civil war on the home territory by 4–6% points.

© 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

 

Ahlerup, Pelle; Gustav Hansson (2011) „Nationalism and government effectiveness“ – Journal of Comparative Economics Volume 39, Issue 3, September 2011, Pages 431–451.

A b s t r a c t

Nation-building is believed to have a positive influence on economic and political outcomes, especially in countries with ethnically fragmented populations. Yet nationalism, an indicator of successful nation-building, has been empirically linked to protectionism and intolerance, which suggests that dismal performance is a more likely outcome. This paper empirically identifies an inverted U-shaped relationship between nationalism and government effectiveness. The results suggest that the level of nationalism in the population is higher than optimal in most countries. It is further shown that nationalism may mitigate the negative effects of ethnic heterogeneity in former colonies. We find no clear linkages between nationalism and trade openness. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Zack, Naomi (2009) Ethics for Disaster. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA):164, Kindle.
Ethics for Disaster addresses the moral aspects of hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, plane crashes, Avian Flu pandemics, and other disasters. Naomi Zack explores how these catastrophes illuminate the existing inequalities in society. By employing the moral systems of utilitarianism, deontology, and virtue ethics to analyze the consequences of recent natural disasters, Zack reveals the special plight of the poor, disabled, and infirm when tragedy strikes. Zack explores the political foundations of social contract theory and dignitarianism and invites readers to rethink the distinction between risk in normal times and risk in disaster. Using both real life and fictional examples, Zack forcefully argues for the preservation of normal moral principles in times of national crisis and emergency, stressing the moral obligation of both individuals and government in preparing for and responding to disaster (https://books.google.ee/books?isbn=0742564959 

 Akerlof, Georg; Robert Shiller (2015) Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, ISBN: 9781400873265 Princeton University Press, Princeton, NY and Kindle Edition: 280 pp.

“Akerlof and Shiller extend the standard ‘market failure’ theory–which says that there is a potential role for government intervention when markets fail–by showing that markets fail not only because of the familiar reasons of externalities and unfair income distribution, but also because of the pervasive phenomenon of ‘phishing for phools’ (profit-seeking through manipulation and deception). They point the way to a new paradigm freed from the constraints of market failure theory, able to illuminate ‘control by capital’ (partly through phishing) and to prescribe for ‘control of capital’ (partly by techniques for limiting phishing suggested here).” – Robert H. Wade, London School of Economics.

le Carrè, John (2017 Sept 7) A Legasy of Spies. Kindle

Interweaving past with present so that each may tell its own intense story, John le Carré has spun a single plot as ingenious and thrilling as the two predecessors on which it looks back: The Spy Who Came in from the Cold and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. In a story resonating with tension, humor and moral ambivalence, le Carré and his narrator Peter Guillam present the reader with a legacy of unforgettable characters old and new

Perea, Andrés (2017) „Forward induction reasoning and correct beliefs“- Journal ofEconomicTheory169: 489–516 http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jet

Abstract

All equilibrium concepts implicitly make a correct beliefs assumption, stating that a player believes that his opponents are correct about his first-order beliefs. In this paper we show that in many dy-namic games of interest, this correct beliefs assumption may be incompatible with a very basic form of forward induction reasoning: the first two layers of extensive-form rationalizability (Pearce, 1984;Battigalli, 1997, epistemically characterized by Battigalli and Siniscalchi, 2002). Hence, forward induction reasoning naturally leads us away from equilibrium reasoning. In the second part we classify the games for which equilibrium reasoning isconsistent with this type of forward induction reasoning, and find that this class is very small.

©2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Volker Nocke, Nicolas Schutz (2017) „Quasi-linear integrability“ –

Journal of Economic Theory, Volume 169: 603-628.

September 4, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Do not quote 29.VIII 17

(30. VIII 17, Microsoft translation of *) do not quote – not crrected)

Optimal nationalism rates concept – for Post-Occupied small nation ethnically heterogeneous in the hybrid-war turbulences and adverse types  – to maximize stability of national sustainability likelihood

The most important initial citations to a planned Short Note (SN) are:

Ahlerup, Pelle; Gustav Hansson (2011) “Nationalism and government effectiveness” –  Journal of Comparative Economics Volume 39, Issue 3, September 2011, Pages 431-451.

A s t r a c t

Nation-building is believed to have a positive influence has economic and political outcomes, especially in countries with the ethnically fragmented populations. Yet nationalism, an indicator of a successful nation-building, it has been empirically linked to protectionism and intolerance, which suggests that dismal performance, is a more likely outcome. This paper empirically identifies an inverted U-shaped relationship between nationalism and government effectiveness. The results suggest that the level of nationalism in the population

is higher than optimal in most countries. It is further shown that nationalism may mitigate the negative effects of ethnic heterogeneity in the former colonies. We find no clear linkages between nationalism and trade openness.

Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NB: in the scientific literature (e.g. Fukuyama (2014)) in general, the “colonization” and “occupation” are synonymous, and in particular the targeted destruction of indigenous peoples: Kukk (2005) by the Soviet occupation in Estonia, 1940-1991 replied to the colonization of the conditions.

Ennuste, Ü.(2014), “Towards Special Methodological Problems of Macro-Economic Coordination, International Sanctioning Sociocybernetic Optimal Modelling: the Introductory” Remarks “on the Preliminary Postulates and Conjectures” – the Baltic Journal of European Studies in Tallinn University of Technology (ISSN 2228-0588), vol. 4, no. 2, (17), 150-158: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT

Modelling the “remarks”

Theoretically, the most complicated problem in the planning of collective United Nations sanctions in the EU context in this third round is the central of optimal coordination of the defensive/deterrent measures taken by the economic sanction imposing an EU Member States, as these penalty measures, projected by the transgressing against third countries imposing an national economy, are as a rule hurting the Member States ‘ economies as well — and — directly and indirectly to the different stochastic degrees. First of all, via the counter attacks by the transgressor in many ways: political, economic, military, etc. (at least in this conflict, that The Economist, 2014).

Thus, from the perspective of cybereconomics, the adequate optimization criterion has to be complex: for example, the real risk of the economic axis, the imaginary and the complementary political risk for the axis. Additionally, the complications in this model may come

into the game via third-country fuzzy logic and dictators ‘ moral hazards. And most importantly — the complexity of the problems increases as, alongside United Nations sanctions to the antagonist, the coalition the union has to introduce complementary domestic economic policies and instead of mechanisms for the minimization of the losses inflicted to the national member economies from the counter-reactions.

NB: in the case of associations and an adequate institutional coordination requires modelling of hierarchical structures (such as the reflection in the Ennuste (1989), and thus also in the endogeniseerimist of the types of negative activity level (e.g., troll and diversantide columns, etc.).

Ennuste, Ü . (1989) “Some of the Models of Stochastic Planning Mechanisms” – the Finnish Economic Papers, 2, 2, 116-124. http://econpapers.repec.org/article/fepjournl/v_3a2_3ay_3a1989_3ai_3a2_3ap_3a116-124.htm

Kholodilin, Konstantin A. and Aleksey Netsunajev (2017) in the Crimea and punishment: The impact of United Nations sanctions is the Russian and European economies. Bank of Estonia.

 Abstract

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine that started in March 2014 led to bilateral economic United Nations sanctions being imposed is each other by Russia and Western countries, including the members of the euro area. The paper investigates the impact of the United Nations sanctions on the real side of the economies of Russia and the euro area. The effects of the United Nations sanctions are analysed with a structural vector auto regression. To pin down the effect we are interested in, we include in the model, an index that measures the intensity of the United Nations sanctions. The shock of the sanction is identified and separated from the oil price shock by narrative sign restrictions. A very high probability that Russian GDP declined as a result of the United Nations sanctions. In contrast to that, the effects of the United Nations sanctions is in the euro area are limited to the real effective exchange rate adjustments.

Kukk, Kalev (2005) “Economic DamagesIn: The White Book: Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes from 1940 to 1991, the State Committee on the Investigation into the Repression Policy of Occupation, Tallinn, Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers: 141-171: http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

Maestri, Lucas (2017) “Ambiguity, optimism, and pessimism in adverse selection models,” Journal of Economic Theory, Volume 171, September 2017, Pages 64-100:

 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2017.06.004 Get the rights and

Abstract

We investigate the effect of ambiguity and ambiguity attitude is the shape and properties of the optimal contract in an adverse selection model with a continuum of types, using the NEO-additive situated in the model. We show that it necessarily features efficiency and a jump at the top and pooling at the bottom of the distribution. Conditional on the degree of ambiguity, the pooling of the section may be supplemented by (a) separating section. As a result, the ambiguity affects adversely the principal’s ability to solve the adverse selection problem and therefore the least efficient types benefit from the ambiguity with respect to the risk. Conversely, the ambiguity is detrimental to the most efficient types.

Schmid-Schmidsfelden, Hubertus and Kristina Potapova (2016) The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing: Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU. Wilfried Martens, Centre for European Studies:

https://www.google.ee/search?q=martensctre%20eu%20publications%20bear%20sheeps%20clothing%20russias%20government%20funded%20organisations

Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (2015) “Economic shocks, the civil war and ethnicity” — Journal of Development Economics 115 32-44.

StratCom COE (15. (III) 2017) StratCom laughs. In search of an analytical framework – ISBN: 978-9934-564-12-3: http://www.stratcomcoe.org/publications

Additional publications

Coomunist Crimes (the Polish legal concepts) in: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_crimes_ (Polish_legal_concept)

CommunistCrimes.org: http://www.communistcrimes.org/en/Database/Estonia/Estonia-Communist-Era

le Carré, John (2016) The Pigeon Tunnel: Stories from My Life. The Kindle Edition.

Rain Lõhmus (2017) https://geenius.ee/uudis/rain-lohmus-residentsus-on-ulehaibitud-absurd/

In parallel, such as Maestri (2017), the academic text – here the empirically Lõhmus argues that the Estonian residency, such as e-institution increases the uncertainty of the national informational and it makes a rational, regarding restrictions on the free movement of capital – whereas the negative efficiency of heterogeneous types of foreign (Rascals, trolls, etc) the increase in turbidity situations detrimental to the efforts to exploit nationalist – taking account of the national economic mechanisms errors (e.g., the oversimplified 0-profit tax and a low progressive income tax, etc. the individual insufficiently turbulence conditions)

Zack, Naomi (2009) Ethics for the Disaster. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA): 164, The Kindle.

Ethics for Disaster recovery addresses the moral aspects of hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, plane crashes, the Avian Flu pandemics, and other disasters. Naomi Zack explores how these catastrophes illuminate the existing inequalities in the society. By employing the moral systems of utilitarianism, deontology, virtue ethics and to analyze the consequences of the recent natural disasters, Zack reveals the special plight of the poor, the disabled, the infirm and the when tragedy strikes. Zack explores the political foundations of social contract theory and dignitarianism and invites readers to rethink the distinction between risk in normal times and the risk in the disaster. Using both real life and fictional examples, Zack forcefully argues for the preservation of normal moral principles in times of national crisis and emergency, stressing the moral obligation of both individuals and government in preparing for and responding to a disaster (https://books.google.ee/books?isbn=0742564959

Ft.com: https://www.ft.com/content/0c1f39b4-3bb3-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec

NB: in addition to the ethical and moral dimension, at the end of the narrowly-economy

Herbert Lindmäe, (2015-1999) SUVESÕDA … 1941, Tartu, Estonia OÜ Greif: the 4825lk (sic! (IX) Volumes — more than)

NB: the Second Independence War of the eye.

Herbert Lindmäe, (2007) the Memento of the Association 16.VI 2007. Confrence Papers:

https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2015/05/11/copy-of-the-papers-of-the-history-confrence-of-the-estonian-memento-association-on-june-16-2007/

Laitin, David (1998) the Identity in Formation: the Russian-speaking Populations in the Near Abroad. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

P.S.: (a) the SN is intended for Ennuste (2014, by the way, this seems to be an index of 1.1 in the magazine among the 20 of the most downloadable text, among others), and also partly Kholodilin and Netsunajev (2017), merely to expand the texts of hybrid-war sanctions: in addition to the economic dimension of the sanctions also cyber attacks dimension (Kissinger (2014)) , and the ideological war, the strategic communications turbulences (and also the military disasters of the consideration of the probability of the negative, and the types of activity of the endogenioning) complex consideration of the full dimensions, (b) the author is fully aware that such an adequate complex approach requires the corresponding ad hoc international scientific co cilium  there -and-hoping to achieve in the future the area of academic cooperation with the charity.

 

 

 

 

*) 29.VIII 17

Sotsio-küberneetiliselt optimaalse natsionalismi määra konteptsioonist: postokupeeritud etnilis-heterogeensele väikerahvale liikmesriigina turbulentses hübriidsõjas – eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse institutsionaalsel maksimeerimisel

Olulisemaid esialgseid osundusi kavas olevale ingl lühiartiklile (SN):

Ahlerup, Pelle; Gustav Hansson (2011) „Nationalism and government effectiveness“ – Journal of Comparative Economics Volume 39, Issue 3, September 2011, Pages 431–451.

A b s t r a c t

Nation-building is believed to have a positive influence on economic and political outcomes, especially in countries with ethnically fragmented populations. Yet nationalism, an indicator of successful nation-building, has been empirically linked to protectionism and intolerance, which suggests that dismal performance is a more likely outcome. This paper empirically identifies an inverted U-shaped relationship between nationalism and government effectiveness. The results suggest that the level of nationalism in the population

is higher than optimal in most countries. It is further shown that nationalism may mitigate the negative effects of ethnic heterogeneity in former colonies. We find no clear linkages between nationalism and trade openness.

Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NB: teaduskirjanduses (nt Fukuyama (2014)) üldiselt “koloniseerimine” ja “okupeerimine” on sünonüümid ning eeskätt suunatud põliselanike hävitamisele: Kukk (2005) järgi sovjeti okupatsioon Eestis 1940-1991 vastas kolonisatsiooni tingimustele.

Ennuste, Ülo (2014) “ Towards Special Methodological Problems of Macro-Optimal Sociocybernetic International Economic Sanctioning Coordination Modelling: Introductory Remarks oPreliminary Postulates and Conjectures” – Baltic Journal of European Studies Tallinn University of Technology (ISSN 2228-0588), Vol. 4, No. 2 (17), 150-158:  http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT

Modelling remarks

Theoretically, the most complicated problem in the planning of collective sanctions in the EU context in this third round is the central optimal coordination of the defensive/deterrent economic sanction measures taken by the imposing EU Member States, as these penalty measures, projected by the imposing countries against transgressing third national economy, are as a rule hurting the Member States’ economies as well—and—directly and indirectly to different stochastic degrees. First of all, via counter-attacks by the transgressor in many ways: political, economic, military etc. (at least in this conflict, see The Economist, 2014).

Thus from the cybereconomics perspective, the adequate optimization criterion has to be complex: for example, real economic risk axis, and complementary imaginary political risk axis. Additionally, complications in this model may come

into game via third-country fuzzy logic and dictators’ nfamous moral hazards. And most importantly—the complexity of the problems increases as, alongside sanctions to the antagonist, the coalition union has to introduce complementary domestic economic policies and mechanisms for the minimization of losse inflicted to the national member economies from the counter-reactions …

NB: liitude puhul adekvaatne modelleerimine nõuab hierarhiliste institutsionaalsete koordineerimis-struktuuride peegeldamist (nt Ennuste (1989) ning seega ka negatiivse aktiivsusega tüüpide endogeniseerimist (nt trollide ja diversantide kolonnid jne).

Ennuste, Ü. (1989) “Some Models of Stochastic Planning Mechanisms” – Finnish Economic Papers, 2, 2, 116 – 124. http://econpapers.repec.org/article/fepjournl/v_3a2_3ay_3a1989_3ai_3a2_3ap_3a116-124.htm

Kholodilin, Konstantin A. and Aleksei Netsunajev (2017) Crimea and punishment:The impact of sanctions on Russian and European economies. Bank of Estonia.

 Abstract

The conict between Russia and Ukraine that started in March 2014 led to bilateral economic sanctions being imposed on each other by Russia and Western countries, including the members of the euro area. The paper investigates the impact of the sanctions on the real side of the economies of Russia and the euro area. The e_ects of sanctions are analysed with a structural vector autoregression. To pin down the e_ect we are interested in, we include in the model an index that measures the intensity of the sanctions. The sanction shock is identi_ed and separated from the oil price shock by narrative sign restrictions. We _nd a very high probability that Russian GDP declined as a result of the sanctions. In contrast to that, the e_ects of the sanctions on the euro area are limited to real effective exchange rate adjustments.

Kukk, Kalev (2005) ”Economic Damages” In: The White Book: Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes 1940–1991State Committee on the Investigation into Repression Policy of Occupation, Tallinn, Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers:141-171:    http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

 

Maestri, Lucas (2017)„Ambiguity, optimism, and pessimism in adverse selection models“ Journal of Economic Theory Volume 171, September 2017, Pages 64-100:

 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2017.06.004Get rights and

Abstract

We investigate the effect of ambiguity and ambiguity attitude on the shape and properties of the optimal contract in an adverse selection model with a continuum of types, using the NEO-additive model. We show that it necessarily features efficiency and a jump at the top and pooling at the bottom of the distribution. Conditional on the degree of ambiguity, the pooling section may be supplemented by a separating section. As a result, ambiguity adversely affects the principal’s ability to solve the adverse selection problem and therefore the least efficient types benefit from ambiguity with respect to risk. Conversely, ambiguity is detrimental to the most efficient types.

Schmid-Schmidsfelden, Hubertus and Kristina Potapova (2016) The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing: Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU. Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies:

https://www.google.ee/search?q=martensctre%20eu%20publications%20bear%20sheeps%20clothing%20russias%20government%20funded%20organisations

Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (2015) Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity. – Journal of Development Economics 115 32–44.

StratCom COE (15.III 2017) StratCom laughs. In search of an analytical framework – ISBN: 978-9934-564-12-3: http://www.stratcomcoe.org/publications

Eelretsenseerimata publikatsioone

Communist Crimes (Polish legal concepts)https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_crimes_(Polish_legal_concept)

CommunistCrimes.org: http://www.communistcrimes.org/en/Database/Estonia/Estonia-Communist-Era

le Carré, John (2016) The Pigeon Tunnel: Stories from My Life. Kindle Edition.

Lõhmus, Rain (2017) https://geenius.ee/uudis/rain-lohmus-residentsus-on-ulehaibitud-absurd/ 

Paralleelselt nt Maestri (2017) akadeemilisele tekstile – siin empiiriliselt Lõhmus  väidab et nt Eesti  e-residentsuse institutsioon suurendab rahvuslikku informatsioonilist ebakindlust ja sellega muudab ratsionaalseks kapitali vaba liikumise kitsendamise – arvestades negatiivse efektiivsusega välismaiste heterogeensete tüüpide (sulide, diversantide, trollide jne) püüdlusi olukordade hägususe suurenemist rahvuslikult kahjustavalt ära kasutada – arvestades rahvusliku majandusmehhanismi tõrkeid (teadusvaeguslikku ülelihtsustust nt 0-kasumimaksu ja puudulikult progresseeruvat individuaalset tulumaksu jne turbulentsi tingimustes)

Zack, Naomi (2009) Ethics for Disaster. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA):164, Kindle.

Ethics for Disaster addresses the moral aspects of hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, plane crashes, Avian Flu pandemics, and other disasters. Naomi Zack explores how these catastrophes illuminate the existing inequalities in society. By employing the moral systems of utilitarianism, deontology, and virtue ethics to analyze the consequences of recent natural disasters, Zack reveals the special plight of the poor, disabled, and infirm when tragedy strikes. Zack explores the political foundations of social contract theory and dignitarianism and invites readers to rethink the distinction between risk in normal times and risk in disaster. Using both real life and fictional examples, Zack forcefully argues for the preservation of normal moral principles in times of national crisis and emergency, stressing the moral obligation of both individuals and government in preparing for and responding to disaster (https://books.google.ee/books?isbn=0742564959 

 Ft.com: https://www.ft.com/content/0c1f39b4-3bb3-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec

NB: eetilise ja moraalse dimensiooni arvestamisest lisaks kitsalt turumajanduslikule

Lindmäe, Herbert (2015-1999) SUVESÕDA  … 1941, Tartu, OÜ Greif: 4825lk (sic! IX Köidet – üe)

NB: Teise Vabadussõja tähtsustamine.

Lindmäe, Herbert (2007) Memento Association 16.VI 2007. Confrence Papers:

https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2015/05/11/copy-of-the-papers-of-the-history-confrence-of-the-estonian-memento-association-on-june-16-2007/

Laitin, David (1998) Identity in Formation: the Russian-speaking Populations in the Near Abroad. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

P.S.: (a) SN on mõeldud Ennuste (2014, muide olevat selles 1.1 indeksiga ajakirjas 20-ne enim allalaaditava teksti hulgas) ja osaliselt ka Kholodilin andNetsunajev (2017) pelgalt hübriidsõja sanktsioonide alaste tekstide laiendamiseks: lisaks majandus-sanktsioonide dimensioonile ka kübersõjalise dimensiooni (Kissinger (2014)) ja strateegilise kommunikatsiooni ideoloogilise sõja turbulentside (ning ka militaarsete katastroofide võimalikkuse arvestamist ning negatiivse aktiivsusega tüüpide endogeniseerimist) dimensioonide täielikku komplekset arvestamist (b) autor on täielikult teadlik et taoline adekvaatne komplekskäsitlus nõuab vastava ad hoc rahvusvahelise teadusliku konsiiliumi olemas-olu – ja  – loodab saavutada edaspidist selle alast heategevuslikku akadeemilist koostööd.

August 29, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Memo 6.VIII 17

NB!: http://maailm.postimees.ee/4198097/poola-kaalub-saksamaalt-reparatsioonide-noudmist?utm_source

Selle teksti järgi nõudmiste esiplaanis on Saksamaalt WWII perioodil ligemale kuue miljoni Poola kodaniku elukaotuse eest kompensatsiooni taotlemine – ilmselt rahaliselt mõõdetuna Poola Parlamendi Teadusosakonna (sic! – üe) poolt.

Siinkohal tekkivad nii sügavad eetilis-filosoofised deontoloogia probleemid kui ka sotsiaal-küberneetilised matemaatilised keerukused jne – sest teadlaskonna teoretiseeringud eetilise vastutuse vallas ulatuva inimelu rahalise väärtuse hindamise osas seinast seina: seda et kas ei peaks üldse moraalse käsitluse puhul loobuma inimelu väärtuse rahalisest hindamisest – või – see väärtus oleks utilitaarselt käsitledes nagunii lõpmatult suur ning seega praktiliselt kasutu: vt Zack (2009)*.

Professor Zack kes on U.S. EPA pikaajaline juhtivteadur taolises temaatikas on teaduspõhiselt kindlalt seisukohal – et eriti katastroofide (nt hübriidsõdades) lähenemise tingimustes – on inimelude väärtuste monetaarne hindamine kohustuslik sest see võimaldab ratsionaalselt juhtida rahvuslike fondide eraldamist nii katastroofide realiseerumise tõenäosuste vähendamiseks (nt hübriidsõjas agressori heidutamisega) kui ka katastroofide tagajärgede leevendamiseks (nt rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse stabiliseerimiseks: vt ka https://yloennuste.wordpress.com/2017/07/24/sotsiaal-kuber-kiri-24-vii-17/

Zack (2009) kokkuvõttest lõigust Postscript leiame et 2008 U.S. EPA hindas ümber ameeriklase nn statistilise dokumentidel põhineva keskmise inimelu väärtuse hinna 7,8 miljoni dollari pealt mõnevõrra madalamaks vastavalt 6,9 miljoni peale. Samast loeme et kohe U.S. arvukate asjatundjate hulgas avaldati protesti taolise hinnaalandamise suhtes – eriti arvestades domineerivat kristlikku eetikat ning inimelu moraalse absoluutse väärtustamise kultuuri.

Väga esialgselt võime eelöelduga analoogia alusel (tehes vatavaid informaalseid korrektsioone nt et eliiti kuuluvus tõstab hinda jne) omalt poolt väga ligikaudselt hinnata et Saksamaa poolt Poolale tekitatud  pöördumatud inimkaotused WWII perioodil – on tänapäeva hübriidsõja tingimustes kui rahvusliku inimressursi jäädavad kaotused hinnatavad triljonite dollarite mahus – seega ligikaudu parajasti Saksamaa väga mitmeaastastele GDP summaarsele mahule lähedal – seega väga õigesti häbistavalt/hukkamõistvalt Saksa tolleaegse armee inimsusvastasusele kuritegevusele.

Jääb lisada et see tohutu kahjusumma võib ekslikult tunduda liiga suurena võrreldes nt OECD (2011) Raportile just ka Poola näitel – ekslikult selle tõttu et selles käsitletakse ainult puhtalt inimkapitali hindamist (eeskätt formaalse harituse ehk mehhaanilise kapitali osas) ja sedagi kitsalt ainult turumajandusliku eluaegse sissetuleku näitel (nt keskmiseks inimkapitali mahuks hinnatakse eelmiste aastate statistika alusel summat ligemale p.c 0,2 miljoni dollari ringis. Seega sellest summast jäävad välja nii sotsiaalkapitali (sh elanikkonna loomuliku iibe ressursside hindamine) kui ka muude turuväliste/kodumajapidamislike nn satelliittulude arvestused).

P.S.: nii või teisiti (a) kas ülal esitet PM.ee tekst on tõene või mingi strateegilis-kommunikatsiooniline õnglemine (phishing: vt nt** nt Poola laimamiseks nt kasvõi selle vihjega et Parlamendil on Teadusosakond) – igal juhul on sellele kaasusele täiendava tähelpanu juhtimine meile kui hübriidsõja eesrindel (vähemalt nii küber- kui ka kaubandus-sõjas) olevale väiksele liitlasriigile väga oluline (b) väga esialgselt ja väga ligikaudselt võiksime ülaltoodud analoogide ja uurimuste põhjal hinnata et perioodil 1939-94 (Venemaa sõjaväeosad lahkusid Eestist 1994) okupatsioonide repressioonid rahvuslike inimkaotuste osas*** tänapäeva mõistes monetaarselt võivad ulatuda triljoni euroni – seega magnituudides ületada meie praegust GDP mahtu – äärmiselt suur ligikaudsus on suuresti tingitud ka sellest et siiani ei ole suudetud piisavalt täpselt määrata meie rahvuslikke inimkaotusi okupatsioonide sõja- ja genotsiidi-kuritegude läbi – nt häbiväärselt on püütud alavääristada Teise Vabadussõja kangelaslikkust ning ohvreid: vt prof Herbert Lindmäe (1999-2015) Köide IX lk 542. (c) tekst aitab ka mõista et sõja tingimustes tuleb sotsiaal-küberneetilisest aspektist ja nn endogeensete tasakaalu kõrgete hindade rakursist – vt nt***) meie liitlaste mistahes toetust käsitleda ka kui meie FDI ühte allikat ja seega ka GDP potentsiaali suurendajat ning seega ka rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse tõstmise faktorit – veelgi enam – kui kogu meie liitlaslaagrite sotsiaalkapitali (eeskätt koostöö efektiivsuse tõstmist – millele putinoidtrollide kolonnid püüavad eriti kiilu vahele lüüa nii EL kui ka NATO sees – sh parajasti eriti Poola laimamiseks) (d) nii Zack (2009) kui ka sellega seotud autorite (https://yloennuste.wordpress.com/2017/07/24/sotsiaal-kuber-kiri 24-vii-17/) sotsiaal küberneetilised uurimused vihjavad et hübriidsõja tingimustes vastavate otsustusmudelite puhul adekvaatsuse saavutamiseks on tarvilik nii funktsioonide katkevuse peegeldamine kui ka suli- ja agressor-agentide tegevuste kirjeldamine – ning samuti sotsiaalsete küberneetiliste mehhanismide/institutsioonide optimeerimine eeskätt rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse tõenäosuse stabiilsuse kindlustamiseks; seejuures prospektiivsete tõenäosuste teadusloogilisel hindamisel arusaadavalt tuleb tugineda Bayes’e printsiibile.

NB: ilmselt sotsiaal-küberneetiliselt hindade määramisel peamiseks ratsionaalseks meetodiks on mudelite dekomponeeritud lahendamisel endogeenselt tekkivad nn duaallahendid (vari-hinnad, Lagrange’i kordajad) – seega mitte vabaturu hinnad sest mudeli keerukus (katkevus, diskreetsus, agressorite tegevuse otsene piiramine ja seda ka strateegilise kommunikatsiooni  tsenseerimise ning kriminaliseerimise osas (http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No4/Ennuste.pdf).

*) Naomi Zack (2009) Ethics for Disaster. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA):164, Kindle.
Ethics for Disaster addresses the moral aspects of hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, plane crashes, Avian Flu pandemics, and other disasters. Naomi Zack explores how these catastrophes illuminate the existing inequalities in society. By employing the moral systems of utilitarianism, deontology, and virtue ethics to analyze the consequences of recent natural disasters, Zack reveals the special plight of the poor, disabled, and infirm when tragedy strikes. Zack explores the political foundations of social contract theory and dignitarianism and invites readers to rethink the distinction between risk in normal times and risk in disaster. Using both real life and fictional examples, Zack forcefully argues for the preservation of normal moral principles in times of national crisis and emergency, stressing the moral obligation of both individuals and government in preparing for and responding to disaster (https://books.google.ee/books?isbn=0742564959 

Ja)

OECD (2011) MEASURING THE STOCK OF HUMAN CAPITAL FOR COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION OF THE LIFETIME INCOME APPROACH TO SELECTED COUNTRIES – STATISTICS DIRECTORATE- WORKING PAPER NO. 41 (This paper has been prepared by Gang Liu, OECD Statistics Directorate): http://www.oecd.org/std/research

 **) Akerlof, Georg, Robert Shiller (2015) Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, ISBN: 9781400873265 Princeton University Press, Princeton, NY and Kindle Edition.
 ***) Gregory, Paul R., Philipp J.H. Schröder, Konstantin Sonin (2011) „Rational dictators and the killing of innocents: Data from Stalin’s archives“ – Journal of Comparative Economics 39 (2011) 34–42. 
 Ja
 Lindmäe, Herbert (2015-1999) SUVESÕDA  … 1941. Tartu, OÜ Greif: 4825lk (sic! IX Köidet – üe).
 Ja
Estonia 1940-1945 (2006) – Estonian International Commission for the Investigation of Crimes Against Humanity, Tallinn: 1337pp.
Ning

Valge raamat: Eesti rahva kaotustest okupatsioonide läbi 1940-1991. Okupatsioonide Repressiivpoliitika Uurimise Riiklik Komisjon, Eesti Entsüklopeediakirjastus, 2005 Tallinn:
http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8196
ja
http://www.riigikogu.ee/…/…/uploads/2014/11/Valge-Raamat.pdf

The White Book. Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes 1940-1991. State Committee on the Investigation into Repression Policy of Occupation, Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers, 2005 Tallinn:
http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192
ja
http://www.riigikogu.ee/public/Riigikogu/TheWhiteBook.pdf

Белая книга: о потерях, причиненных народу Эстонии оккупациями 1940-1991 / Государственная комиссия по расследованию репрессивной политики оккупационных сил; [перевод с эстонского: Андрей Бабаджан, Татьяна Верхоустинская, Эйнар Вяря; ORURK-24. Kirjastus Ilo. Tallinn, 2005: http://digar.nlib.ee/digar/show/?id=1604

Ja

Varju, Peep (2013) Eesti laste küüditamine Venemaale 14. juunil 1941 kui genotsiidi- jasõjakuritegu. Sihtasutus Valge Raamat, Tallinna Raamatutrükikoda: 116:

http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:134869

 ****) 

Naevdal, Eric (2016) „Catastrophes and ex post shadow prices — How the value of the last fish in a lake is infinity and why we should not care (much)“ – Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Volume 132, Part B, December 2016, Pages 153–160: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2016.04.021

Ja

Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (2015) Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity. – Journal of Development Economics 115 32–44.

P.S.P.S.: Vaata lisaks

Pindyck, Robert S. and Neng Wang (2013) „The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes“ – American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 5(4): 306–339: http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.5.4.306

Fleurbaey, Marc; Stéphane Zuber (2017) „Fair management of social risk“ – Journal of EconomicTheory, 169): 666–706:  http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jet

Chanel, Oliver; Graciela Chichilnisky (2013) „Valuing life: Experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events“ – Ecological Economics 85: 198–205: doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.03.004

VABANDUSI: olen täiesi teadlik et taoliste ülevaadete koostamine käib ühele autorile ülejõu ja selles et minu blogidel on rahvusvaheline levik (WordPress.com peab vastavat statistikat) – ja seepärast püüan olla tõlkimisautomaatidele meelepärane (nt GDP, FDI, WWII jne).

August 6, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Draft (20.VII 17 – do not quote)

Ennuste, Ülo (2017) Small Nation-State Catastrophic Risks and  Macro Shocks Bayesian Modelling Bibliography from Angle of Academic Macro-Economics and Social-Cybernetics in Post-GDP and Social-Cybernetics Informal Concepts and with Operational Research Kit – for the Retrospective Modelling  of Estonian National inter Generational Evolution in the 1939-1991 Occupations and in  Hybrid War 2007-2017 and for Prospective Long Rrange Optimal Adaptiv Strategy Projection as Member-State of the EU and NATO

This short Bibliography contains … entries, including book reviews (e.g. monographies by Prof R.A. Posner) and publications in the popular literature of Big Authors (e.g. John le Carre and J. M. Coetzee).  Where possible, I have included links to open-access (subscription-free) web versions of the entries and occasionally abstracts for spreading academic results (not always open-access cases e.g.: by Chichlinsky etc).

I presume that I have overlooked some literature. Please send me any and all suggestions for further entries to existing ones via email: ylo.ennuste@mail.ee (Futher preliminary Intoductory Remarks:  https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/do-not-quote-18-xi-16/ )

Acemoglu, D.; S. Johnson, J.A. Robinson (2005) „Institutions as the fundamental cause of long-run growth“ In: Aghion, P., Durlauf, S. (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth. North-Holland, pp. 385–472.

Ahlerup, Pelle; Gustav Hansson (2011) „Nationalism and government effectiveness“ – Journal of Comparative Economics Volume 39, Issue 3: 431–451.

Akerlof, Georg, Robert Shiller (2015) Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, ISBN: 9781400873265 Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ and Kindle Edition.

Applebaum, A. (2014), ‘War in Europe is not a hysterical idea” The Washington

Post, 29 August 2014. Retrieved from http://www.washingtonpost.

com/opinions/anne-applebaum-war-in-europe-is-not-a-hystericalidea/

2014/08/29/815f29d4-2f93-11e4-bb9b-997ae96fad33_story.html

Alston, L. J. (1996) „Empirical work in institutional economics: an overview“ In: Alston, L.J., Eggertsson, T., North, D.C. (Eds.), Empirical Studies in Institutional Change. Cambridge University Press, pp. 25–30.

Aoki, M. (1996) „Towards a comparative institutional analysis: motivations and some tentative theorizing“  Jpn. Econ. Rev. 47 (1), 1–19.

Aoki, M. (2001) Towards a Comparative Institutional Analysis. MIT Press.

Azrieli, Yaron; Ehud Lehrer (2008) “The value of a stochastic information structure” – Games and Economic Behavior 63 (2008) 679–693.

Barelli, Paulo; John Duggan (2015) „Purification of Bayes Nash equilibrium with correlated types and interdependent payoffs“ –  Games and Economic Behavior 94 (2015) 1–14.

Baum, Seth D. (2009) “Global Catastrophic Risks” (book review). Risk Analysis, vol. 29, no. 1: 155-156:

http://sethbaum.com/ac/2009_Rev-GCR.pdf

Blattman, Christopher; Julian Jamison, Tricia Koroknay-Palicz, Katherine Rodrigues, Margaret Sheridan (2016) „Measuring the measurement error: A method to qualitatively validate survey data“ – Journal of Development Economics 120 (2016) 99–112.

Brada, Josef C., Ali M. Kutan and Goran Vukšić (2009) The Costs of Moving Money across Borders and the Volume of Capital Flight: The Case of Russia and Other CIS Countries.  EMG Working Paper Series, WP-EMG-28-2009.

Bretschneider et al. (1989) “Political and organizational influences on accuracy of forecasting state government revenues” – International Journal of Forecasting 5 307-319.

Brutus, L.; Ü. Ennuste  (1965) Un domaine d´experimentation economique“ – Democratie Nouvelle, Mars, 89 – 94.

BUCHANAN, JOHN; DOMINIC HEESANG CHAI and SIMON DEAKIN (2014) „Empirical analysis of legal institutions and institutional change: multiple-methods approaches and their application to corporate governance research“ – Journal of Institutional Economics / Volume 10 / Issue 01 / March 2014, pp 1-20.

Buchholz, Wolfgang; Michael Sch,⁎ymura (2012) „Expected utility theory and the tyranny of catastrophic risks“ – Ecological Economics 77: 234–239.

Abstract

Expected Utility theory is not only applied to individual choices but also to social decisions, e.g. in cost–benefit

analysis of climate change policymeasures that affect future generations and hence incorporate an ethical dimension.

In this context the crucial question arises whether EU theory is able to deal with “catastrophic risks”, i.e. risks

of high, but very unlikely losses, in an ethically appealing way. In this paper we show that this is not the case.

Rather, if in the framework of EU theory a plausible level of risk aversion is assumed, a “tyranny of catastrophic

risk” (TCR) emerges, i.e. project evaluation is dominated by the catastrophic event. Or, contrary to that, with

low degrees of risk aversion, the catastrophic risk eventually has no impact at all (“negligence of catastrophic

risk” (NCR)) which is ethically not acceptable as well.

© 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chanel, Oliver; Graciela Chichilnisky (2013) „Valuing life: Experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events“ – Ecological Economics 85: 198–205: doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.03.004

A b s t r a c t

Global environmental phenomena like climate change, major extinction events or flutype pandemics can have catastrophic consequences. By properly assessing the outcomes involved – especially those concerning human life – economic theory of choice under uncertainty is expected to help people take the best decision. However, the widely used expected utility theory values life in terms of the low probability of death someone

would be willing to accept in order to receive extra payment. Common sense and experimental evidence refute this way of valuing life, and here we provide experimental evidence of people’s unwillingness to accept a low probability of death, contrary to expected utility predictions. This work uses new axioms of choice defined by Chichilnisky (2000), especially an axiom that allows extreme responses to extreme events, and the choice criterion that they imply (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2004). The implied decision criteria are a combination of expected utility

with extreme responses, and seem more consistent with observations.

© 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chichilnisky, Graciela (2009) „The topology of fear“ – Journal of Mathematical Economics, 45: 807–816: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jmateco

Ab s t r a c t

For many years experimental observations have raised questions about the rationality of

economic agents—for example, the Allais Paradox or the Equity Premium Puzzle. The problem is a narrow notion of rationality that disregards fear. This article extends the notion

of rationality with new axioms of choice under uncertainty and the decision criteria they

imply (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable development. Social

Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic approach to choice

under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky,

G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.,

Chicester).

In the absence of catastrophes, the old and the newapproach coincide, and both

lead to standard expected utility. A sharp difference emerges when facing rare events with

important consequences, or catastrophes. Theorem 1 establishes that a classic axiom of

choice under uncertainty – Arrow’s Monotone Continuity axiom, or its relatives introduced

by DeGroot, Villegas, Hernstein and Milnor – postulate rational behavior that is ‘insensitive’

to rare events as defined in (Chichilnisky, G., 1996a. An axiomatic approach to sustainable

development. Social Choice andWelfare 13, 257–321; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. An axiomatic

approach to choice under uncertainty with Catastrophic risks. Resource and Energy Economics; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. Catastrophical Risk. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1.

John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Chicester). Theorem 2 replaces this axiom with another that allows

extreme responses to extreme events, and characterizes the implied decision criteria as a

combination of expected utility with extremal responses.

Theorems 1 and 2 offer a new understanding of rationality consistent with previously unexplained observations about decisions involving rare and catastrophic events, decisions involving fear, the Equity Premium Puzzle, ‘jump diffusion’ processes and ‘heavy tails’, and it agrees with (Debreu, G., 1953. Valuation equilibrium and Pareto optimum. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 40, 588–592) formulation of market behavior and his proof of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand theorem.

© 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Grechuk, Bogdan; Michael Zabarankin (2014) „Risk averse decision making under catastrophic risk“ – European Journal of Operational Research 239: 166–176.

A b s t r a c t

A nonstandard probabilistic setting for modeling of the risk of catastrophic events is presented. It allows random variables to take on infinitely large negative values with non-zero probability, which correspond to catastrophic consequences unmeasurable in monetary terms, e.g. loss of human lives. Thanks to this extension, the safety-first principle is proved to be consistent with traditional axioms on a preference relation, such as monotonicity, continuity, and risk aversion. Also, a robust preference relation is

introduced, and an example of a monotone robust preference relation, sensitive to catastrophic events in the sense of Chichilnisky (2002), is provided. The suggested setting is demonstrated in evaluating nuclear power plant projects when the probability of a catastrophe is itself a random variable. _ 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chang, H.-J. (2011) „Institutions and economic development: theory, policy and history“  J. Inst. Econ. 7 (4), 473–498.

Chichilnisky, Graciela (2010) “The foundations of statistics with black swans” – Mathematical Social Sciences Volume 59 Issue 2: 184-192:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2009.09.007Get rights and content

Abstract

We extend the foundation of statistics to integrate rare events that are potentially catastrophic, called black swans.These include natural hazards, regime change in complex systems, market crashes, catastrophic climate change and major episodes of species extinction. Classic statistics and physics treat such events as ‘outliers’ and often disregard them. We propose a new axiomatization of subjective probability requiring equal treatment for rare and frequent events, and characterize the likelihoods or subjective probabilities that the axioms imply. These coincide with countably additive measures and yield normal distributions when the sample has no black swans. When the sample includes black swans, the new likelihoods are represented by a combination of countable and finitely additive measures with both parts present. The axioms were introduced in Chichilnisky (2000, 2002); they extend the axiomatic foundations of Savage (1954)Villegas (1964) and Arrow (1971) and they are valid for bounded and unbounded samples (Chichilnisky, 1996b). The finitely additive measures assign more weight to rare events than do standard distributions and in that sense explain the persistent observation of power laws and ‘heavy tails’ that eludes classic theory.

Coetzee, J. M. and Arabella Kurtz (2015) The Good Story: Exchanges on Truth, Fiction and Psychotherapy. Harvill Sacker, London: 198.

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Grechuk, Bogdan; Michael Zabarankin (2014) „Risk averse decision making under catastrophic risk“ – European Journal of Operational Research 239: 166–176.

A b s t r a c t

A nonstandard probabilistic setting for modeling of the risk of catastrophic events is presented. It allows

random variables to take on infinitely large negative values with non-zero probability, which correspond

to catastrophic consequences unmeasurable in monetary terms, e.g. loss of human lives. Thanks to this

extension, the safety-first principle is proved to be consistent with traditional axioms on a preference

relation, such as monotonicity, continuity, and risk aversion. Also, a robust preference relation is

introduced, and an example of a monotone robust preference relation, sensitive to catastrophic events

in the sense of Chichilnisky (2002), is provided. The suggested setting is demonstrated in evaluating

nuclear power plant projects when the probability of a catastrophe is itself a random variable.

_ 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

 

Diamond, Peter; Emmanuel Saez (AUGUST 2011) The Case for a Progressive Tax: From Basic Research to Policy Recommendations. CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 3548 CATEGORY 1: PUBLIC FINANCE: http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/diamond-saezJEP11opttax.pdf

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Fleurbaey, Marc; Stéphane Zuber (2017) „Fair management of social risk“ – Journal ofEconomicTheory, 169): 666–706:  http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jet

Abstract

We provide a general method for extending social preferences defined for riskless economic environments to the context of risk and uncertainty. We apply the method to the problems of managing unemployment allowances (in the context of macroeconomic fluctuations) and catastrophic risks (in the context of climate change). The method guarantees expost fairness and pays attention to individuals’ risk attitudes, while ensuring rationality properties for social preferences, revisiting basic ideas from Harsanyi’s celebrated ag-gregation theorem (Harsanyi, 1955). The social preferences that we obtain do not always take the form of an expected utility criterion, but they always satisfy statewise dominance. When we require social preferences to be expected utilities, we obtain a variant of Harsanyi’s result under a weak version of the Pareto principle, and a maximin criterion under a stronger Pareto requirement, whenever the expost social ordering does not depend on people’s risk attitudes. We also show how non-expected utility individual preferences can be accommodated in the approach.

©2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

P.S.: prof Kallas’ele meeldetuletuseks et nt ülaltoodu alusel sotsiaal-küberneetiliselt näib et kremlistide ratsionaalsus on inimkonnale katastroofiks – nagu oli ka Stalin’i ratsionaalsus:  vt nt Gregory, Paul R., Philipp J.H. Schröder, Konstantin Sonin (2011) „Rational dictators and the killing of innocents: Data from Stalin’s archives“ – Journal of Comparative Economics 39 (2011) 34–42.  Ja  Chanel, Oliver; Graciela Chichilnisky (2013) „Valuing life: Experimental evidence using sensitivity to rare events“ – Ecological Economics 85: 198–205: doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.03.004

Forrester, Jay W. (1998) Designing the FutureUniversidad de Sevilla Sevilla, Spain, December 15, 1998, Copyright © 1998 by Jay W. Forrester, Permission granted for copying and electronic distribution for non-commercial educational purposes.

Fukuyama, Francis (2014) Political order and political decay. FARRAR, STRAUS AND GIROUX,  NY: 658.

 Gagliardi, Francesca (2016) „Institutions and economic change“ – Journal of Comparative Economics 0 0 0 (2016) 1–3  (in Press).

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Gregory, Paul R., Philipp J.H. Schröder, Konstantin Sonin (2011) „Rational dictators and the killing of innocents: Data from Stalin’s archives“ – Journal of Comparative Economics 39 (2011) 34–42.

 HANSEN, BRADLEY A. and MARY ESCHELBACH HANSEN (2016) „The historian’s craft and economics“ – Journal of Institutional Economics / Volume 12 / Issue 02 / June 2016, pp 349-370.

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Abstract

How likely is a catastrophic event that would substantially reduce

the capital stock, GDP, and wealth? How much should society be

willing to pay to reduce the probability or impact of a catastrophe?

We answer these questions and provide a framework for policy

analysis using a general equilibrium model of production, capital

accumulation, and household preferences. Calibrating the model to

economic and financial data, we estimate the mean arrival rate of

shocks and their size distribution, the tax on consumption society

would accept to limit the maximum size of a catastrophic shock, and

the cost to insure against its impact. (JEL D81, E22, E23, E32, G22,

H25, Q54)

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Resiliency Authors (2016)“Making the Eurozone more resilient: What is needed now and what can wait?“:

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Roberts, Patrick (2008) “Catastrophe: Risk and Response, by Richard A. Posner.” – Homeland Security Affairs 4, Article 5: https://www.hsaj.org/articles/595

Abstract

Catastrophe: Risk and Response, Richard Posner makes the case that the risk of global catastrophe is higher than most people think, and he analyzes the reasons why the U.S. under-prepares for natural, technological, and terrorist catastrophe. Attempts to mitigate the risk of catastrophe will incur heavy costs, whether economic (as in proposals to reduce the effects of climate change) or civic (as in policing reforms that infringe on civil liberties). How might the U.S. and the world weigh the extraordinary costs and uncertain future benefits of avoiding catastrophe? Posner advocates economic tools, especially cost-benefit analysis, as a guide in determining which catastrophes are worth protecting against and which are so unlikely to happen or so trivial that they are not worth the cost of defense

Russ, Meir (2016) „The probable foundations of sustainabilism: Information, energy and entropy based definition of capital, Homo Sustainabiliticus and the need for a “new gold” – Ecological Economics 130: 328–338.

A b s t r a c t

this conceptual, interdisciplinary paper will start with an introduction to the new-networked knowledge-based global economy and the importance of intellectual and, specifically, human, capital. Next, an advanced definition of human and other forms of capital using information, energy and entropy will be introduced. This will be followed by a discussion of the premises framing the study of economics and will focus on the role of law in the economy. Afterwards, the paper will suggest the addition of a new model of humans that should serve as the base for the concept of law, the homo sustainabiliticus. Ensuing this discussion and consistent with the newly proposed definition of capital, a proposal for a new currency (“new gold”) will be offered. This proposal suggests viewing usable, renewable energy, knowledge and data as the most important assets for the 21st century

and is seen as the building block for the new sustainabilistic economy.

© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological Economics: This paper builds on and significantly enhances a chapter by Russ, M. (2014b).

E-mail address: russm@uwgb.edu.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.07.013

Schlefer, J. (2012), The Assumptions Economists Make, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

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Shao, Jia; Apostolos D. Papaioannou, Athanasios A. Pantelous (2017) „Pricing and simulating catastrophe risk bonds in a Markov-dependent environment“:

A b s t r a c t

At present, insurance companies are seeking more adequate liquidity funds to cover the insured property losses related to natural and manmade disasters. Past experience shows that the losses caused by catastrophic events, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, or hurricanes, are extremely high. An alternative method for covering these extreme losses is to transfer part of the risk to the financial markets by issuing catastrophe-linked bonds. In this paper, we propose a contingent claim model for pricing catastrophe risk bonds (CAT bonds). First, using a two-dimensional semi-Markov process, we derive analytical bond pricing formulae in a stochastic interest rate environment with aggregate claims that follow compound forms, where the claim inter-arrival times are dependent on the claim sizes. Furthermore, we obtain explicit CAT bond prices formulae in terms of four different payofffunctions. Next, we estimate and calibrate the parameters of the pricing models us- ing catastrophe loss data provided by Property Claim Services from 1985 to 2013. Finally, we use Monte Carlo simulations to analyse the numerical results obtained with the CAT bond pricing formulae. ©2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

STIGLITZ, Joseph E., Amartya SEN, Jean-Paul FITOUSSI (2010) Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gdp-and-beyond/publications

StratCom COE (15.III 2017) StratCom laughs. In search of an analytical framework – ISBN: 978-9934-564-12-3: http://www.stratcomcoe.org/publications

SUNSTEIN, CASS R. and REID HASTIE (2015) „Garbage in, garbage out? Some micro sources of macro errors“ – Journal of Institutional Economics / Volume 11 / Issue 03 / September 2015, pp 561-583

Wikipedia (n.d.) ‘Economic Sanctions.’ Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/

Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (2015) Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity. – Journal of Development Economics 115 32–44.

Tirole, Jean (1992) The Theory of Industrial Organizations. The MIT Press: 479.

Tongeren,  Jan W. van and Ruud Picavet (2016) „Bayesian estimation approach in frameworks; integration of compilation and analysis“ In  EURONA — Eurostat Review on National Accounts and Macroeconomic Indicators: 7-49.

Valge, Jaak (2006) Breaking away from Russia : economic stabilization in Estonia 1918-1924. Stockholm, Stockholm University 232 pp: http://www.ester.ee/record=b2169982*est

Valge, Jaak (2014) Punased I. Tallinna Ülikooli Eesti Demograafia Instituut: Rahvusarhiiv, Tallinna Raamatutrükikoda: 376. 

Valge, Jaak (XII 2017?) Punased II. Tallinna Ülikooli Eesti Demograafia Instituut: Rahvusarhiiv, Tallinna Raamatutrükikoda: 376. 

Valge raamat: Eesti rahva kaotustest okupatsioonide läbi 1940-1991. Okupatsioonide Repressiivpoliitika Uurimise Riiklik Komisjon, Eesti Entsüklopeediakirjastus, 2005 Tallinn:
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Белая книга: о потерях, причиненных народу Эстонии оккупациями 1940-1991 / Государственная комиссия по расследованию репрессивной политики оккупационных сил; [перевод с эстонского: Андрей Бабаджан, Татьяна Верхоустинская, Эйнар Вяря; ORURK-24. Kirjastus Ilo. Tallinn, 2005: http://digar.nlib.ee/digar/show/?id=1604

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A bstract

This study examines income convergence in regional GDP per capita for a sample of 269 regions within the European Union (EU) between 2003 and 2010. We use an endogenous broad capital model based on foreign direct investment (FDI) induced agglomeration economies and human capital. By applying a Markov chain approach to a new dataset that exploits micro-aggregated sub-national FDI statistics, the analysis provides insights into regional income growth dynamics within the EU. Our results indicate a weak process of overall income convergence across EU regions. This does not apply to the dynamics within Central and East European countries (CEECs), where we find indications of a poverty trap. In contrast to FDI, regional human capital seems to be associated with higher income levels. However, we identify a positive interaction of FDI and human capital in their relation with income growth dynamics. Introduction Regional disparities in per capita output and income have been a concern of the European Community since its inception. The objective of reducing income inequalities has been challenged by trade liberalization following the single market program and more enhanced by the continuous integration process of new member states. While economic growth and cohesion within the European Union (EU) tend to decrease income disparities at a national level, regional inequalities have rather deepened (Kramar, 2006). In this context, the convergence/divergence issue of per capita incomes across any set of regions in the EU has attracted considerable research interest in the last decade, but the results have been mixed. Some studies suggest the existence of convergence across all European regions (Fingleton, 1997, 1999; López-Bazo et al., 1999; Votteler, 2004), while others show evidence of convergence clubs or multiple equilibriums within the income distribution (López-Bazo et al., 1999; Ertur and Le Gallo, 2003; Canova, 2004). Within an endogenous growth framework (Romer, 1986; Lucas, 1988), the accumulation of foreign direct investment (FDI) can be regarded as an important growth driver that triggers technological progress, resulting in productivity spillovers. FDI has been perceived as a key ingredient for growth and catching-up strategies by Central and East European Countries.

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Sketch 24. IV 17 (automatic translation of the previous Estonian paper for idependent international references)

Ülo Ennuste (24. IV  17) Socio-cybernetic small Note national  of the approximate financial resources assessment methods in hybrid-warfare  conditions, from the prospect of the probability  of the of the national sustainability stabilty criteria: case study of the experimental calculations illustrating Estonian present conditions with the previous century of occupation fallouts, as well as the negative effects of long-term damage to the accounting of the ruins of the occupation

Abstact

The 21st century academic socio-Cybernetics primary power shall evaluate the hybrid war solidaarsestesse kooperatiivsesse/suurliitudesse of the UNHCR on the national economic, social-and in particular the success of the cybernetic-Meta-Post based GDP: in particular, the sustainability of the sustainability of the national proxy-convergence of the sustainability of the conditional probability, Bayes ‘ on the basis of national macro increments –-in models of national institutions (Hodgson (2007; 1998) and the resources and risks in the form of a quantification financially developed so positively than negatively – and particularly in the human capital and social capital measurement of the financial volumes also both direct and indirect – and financially by measuring the long-term occupation of the most recent, also caused by the terrorist national casualties in particular, the human-, social-and cultural-property, etc-because in the current hübriidsõjas is the aim of the agressori once again, the likelihood of sustainability sustainability loits erodeerimine trying to rely on the previous occupation by the komplikatsioonidele – for optimal deterrence strategies and policies of the respective national resources planning requires a quantitative assessment of the comparable volumes, and to cooperate with the scientific cooperation of the allies of the independent oivakskustega.

  • Stiglitz et al. (2010) put the strictly teadusloogiliselt firmly into place so that the standard/formal GDP indicators are mainly based on the flows highlighted in market economy and thus to strictly invalid both the sustainability of the national evaluation of welfare as well – particularly in the conditions of uncertainty and risks of high hübriidsõja – and also in the teaduslagedate of national revenue redistribution of disfunktsionaalsete under the conditions of the institutions (e.g. 0-profit tax which is detrimental to the partner and hübriidsõjas sub-aggressor subsideerib, etc.); next to remain largely out of both national socio- , the human-, culture-, etc, the creation of reserves assets/current volumes of the estimates, and the stock of resources if the faktotite calculations: what’s more important that the standard GDP accounting check will go to the currently positive, such as several of the hübriidsõja caused by crimes – for example, as a result of the 2007 pronksmäsu rebuilding, etc (the credibility of the report confirms the scientific composition of the authors tippkompetentsus-added – for this is missing both the politikaanid and the bankers, and the plutokraadid and other magnaadid like we practice, etc.)

NB: the real (G) the validation of non-formal/research-based GGDP some of the volumes are abbreviated preliminary quantitative operational and their preliminary results given the informal, so-called sateliitkontosid is described summarily in the following studies

  http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gdp-and-beyond/publications

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/beyond_gdp/index_en.html

refer to the academic/informal, the volumes of the GGDP duaalhindades (or varihindades), which is possible in the absence of market prices, the optimiseerimisteooriate võimekustega are submitted by financially rough-in excess of the standard in terms of human resources (in a wide sense of regulations, together with the reproduction of the capital), the financial value exceeds substantially the size of the physical capital in this context (see, for example, the OECD (2011) which, unfortunately, on the basis of statistics and economy narrowly where the calculations of the Estonian are missing – and the OECD (2016), where there are also some indirect social capital of the Estonian kvantifikatsioone).

  • Stiglitz et al . according to the national population should be taken into account adequately the activities of both revenue-market sourcing and acquisition of national investment and the creation of national resources – in particular, both the national human-and social-and physical-and institutsionaal-the acquisition of the capital by the non-market institutions and households – and their assessment of the financial resources of the volumes – and a largely informal basis duaalhindade. On OECD (2011) for the evaluation of a complex formula of the volume of the human capital is a complex approach to the market economy, even in the case of narrow, where indigenous communities such as the reproduktiivsusega related to the human resources of households – the same as allude to the Diamond & Saez , etc., as well as the sotsiaalkapitaliga stories in particular, given the conditions of the hübriidsõja risks, related national änge (see, for example, Ott & Ennuste (1996) ethnic groups, such as that in paragraph unless asymmetric side structures: in English and Russian). And see also the Chou (2006) abstract which added; not to mention the national küberneetiliste institutsionaalkapitalide financial hinnanguest – KUNČIČ (in 2014).
  • It is unfortunate that a large part of our national economic and Monetary Affairs-politicians is politically motivated, narrowly remained the nationalist ebaadekvaatsete deterministlike kummardajateks GDP indicators so far (see annex) – which distort their perceptions of the actual situation and the size of the risks, and to lead them to a nationalist ränkadele väärotsustustele, such as putinoid the troll tekitatavatele by the national social capital in the EU and NATO, in particular in the kiilulõõmisega strain on the system. Especially in the hübriidsõja under the conditions of risk (see Kissinger (2014), Lucas (2014), Toomse (2015), Kaljulaid (2017), etc.), and even more are the mechanisms of majandusküberneetiliste- Diamond & Saez (2011) and Best et al. (2017), such as the current of our 0-profit tax is a teaduslage mechanism and, at the same time, the negative of the institution – particularly when taking into account the risks and the respective claims.
  • Examples of problems in hübriidsõja: strategic communications war 1) see, for example, war, sanctions, Ennuste (2014) given in the literature references that need a hierarchical coordination service kooperatiivses in the Union 2) strategic communications about the war, see the references to the Ennuste (2008) that it is necessary to “freedom of expression” kremlimeelsete restrictions in respect of the trolls, etc. 3) is worth tähelpanu also called ifolõhe between the camps of academic and poliitkorporatiivse (Januskaite, & Uziene (2015), and Kahan et al. (2017) recognize that this gap may be somewhat relieved by the curiosity of some võimurite) the worsening strategic kommunikatsioonisõjas between the academic and political institutions (see also StratCom COE (2015)) – particularly in the understanding of the risks to the sustainability of the sustainability väikerahvuslike tõenäosuslikkuse part 4), especially in the deep gap is, on the one hand, a probabilistic approach to the treatment of teadusloogilises (truth is the probability and false, and faktoidid may come from not only the pudrupäisusest but probably also the sulilikust salakavalsusest (Wiener (1948)) – in particular in the strategic communication) – and, on the other hand, subjective support political-between the determinismi (where the hägusloogika in use).

Example: The long-term occupation by the NLi and the waste from the financial losses suffered by the national täilike the real assessment which takes into account in particular the inimvaradega, such as

 https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/do-not-quote-18-xi-16/

NB: the long-term occupation of Estonia by the NLi, such as the damage caused by a completely formal (on the basis of the national statistics of the national resources in standardese, thus excluding entities) to the correct rating (the cock (2005) it’s probably within the limits (0, 1, 0, 2) tn (tn is a 10 step 12) – that’s right, 2004. (a) the data and macro-economic theories into the mainstream … and on the basis of methodologies), and within the framework of the National Commission on Outokumpu in that – as diplomatically ethically correct manner (e.g., Kirch et al. (2009)), it was possible (including is Cock responsibly stated that the NLi occupation was the essence of colonization which Fukuyama (2014 lk391) sets a primary põlisrahvuse the destruction of the light) – for example, that in our war of independence II (Lindmäe (1999-2015) Volume IX, lk542)) in losses came from completely off to remain silent – turns out to be the now currently hübriidsõja under conditions of risk and the informaalsetes teaduspõhistes costumes, the completely null and void – especially our national inimvarade the massive amounts of losses due to the barbaarses okupatsioonis, and pikaajaluste terms of the lesions that are continuing so far (Raukas (2005), such as radioactive waste-see also ANNEX ).

P.S.: It is clear that the informal financial described above, the kompleksete national academic tõenäosuslike (largely on the basis of subjective assessments like the Bayes ‘: Tongeren et al. (2016), and indirect macroeconomic results of the measurements, such as, for example, Rajasalu (2003) the reliability of the estimates) and the strategic consideration of hübriidsõja antagonistliku in the conditions of communication can be secure – the only and only – a broad well coordinated within the framework of international cooperation — the synergies of national teadmusstruktuuride metasünteesis. The remains of perhaps but still add these to the national structures of the energy contained in huge scholarly assets – in particular, the relevant tippteaduslike of the hundreds of magazines, and studies of hundreds of thousands of tippteoreetiliste inside the hiding-although many of these studies can be found in/buy a few clicks below, such as osunduste, also kirjandusviidetest – but none of the top scientists have not let this pink long enough so that the whole of this large multi-dimensionaalsuses, and määramatuses, and the dynamics of, and complementary methods to operate alone in the field and try to poliitpõhiseid the numerous corporate sustainability sustainability of national õõnestavaid the likelihood of populist väärotsuseid don’t hcertainly hold – although at times, it would be possible to quickly and easily make, such as: (a) is also scientifically, such as strategic communications in war, a certain degree of limitation of the “freedom of expression” absolutely oblikatoorne (see, for example, Ennuste (2008). Such as even the President Kaljulaid’s WaPo article – https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russia-is-a-threat-estonia-frets-about-its-neighbor/2017/03/24/011ad320-0f2b-11e7-9b0d-d27c98455440_story.html?utm_term=.ab0febde5386 – is probably the dozens in the Kremlin, the trolls have added comments to diversioonilisi (and it funnier is that the same article is probably to support political-accuracy credible probably kremlimeelse Y faktoidi ‘ Toom. as to the Russian spoke in Narva is currently not any putinoidi the way kiskjaliku was changed to Narva – the NLi venekeelseks by the sõjakuritegelikult ethnic in the course of the cleansing, and thus a potential dangerous situation especially in the currently sütikuna during the civil war with Russia – see, for example, Thorsten & Riera-Crichton (2015)) ((b)) very, very easy to be approaching the Estonian Presidency during the EU/27-s to enforce the tax laws take into account the whole science-based risks and that the Member States, the institutions of multinational or deceptive tax havens takes (see EU Commission, preparatory Reports corresponding to the recent years) – and – with the EU as a whole, the 27/both social capital and defence capabilities would increase (while we teadustühiselt asendusteemasid kilplaslikult seltskonnameedias up in the heat, and the rahvuslikku teadmusruumi hägustatakse dispuutidega sotsiaalmaksustamise, such as robots, etc: = =) (c), which is particularly important for us in this hübriidsõjas that kiskjalik inimsusevastaselt okupatsioonis prior to the aggressor, significantly undermined our both ethnic and national structure of the spiritual (see, e.g., Hill et al. (2016) and Young (2005)), and the Russian-speaking population here now trying to falsely on behalf of human rights once again into the rescue of the occupation to restore social capital as the national nationalist loits and ideologically lõhestades: in doing so as one of the main weapon of the wrong the wrong end – as if the occupation existed and that the deportations were to rescue the people of Estonian and Russian language should be restored as a national language, etc. Absolutely definitely were the okupatsioonis of our põhirahvuse of the national teadmusruumi and the quality of the human asset losses will be enormous and long-term meaning of the 21st century – in the larger senihinnatutest and so far significantly reduce the likelihood of sustainability sustainability loits – up to the historic truth truly is also scientifically in the face/view: for example, that in all probability already tunamullu in Tallinn, Estonia v (k) was dominated by (the study of Mägi et al. (2016)).

P.S.P.S.: (a) the text is designed for the professional, to facilitate international cooperation, and in this sense, in particular in terms of “a machine translation for the appropriate decimal point instead of using dashes and such as GDP (production of homegrown and not GDP/GDP, etc.), (b) UR30.III, Eurostat published a fresh overview of the 2017 in EU GDP in the region 28/276 p. (c) imbalances on: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/news/news-releases. Although this review is of the 21st century in terms of macroeconomics vaegteaduslik (see, e.g., Atkinson (2017) – for example, reflects only a narrowly turumajanduslikke indices) — this overview may, however, also, such as the OECD, with reports that concluded on the basis of the EU as a whole, the level of social capital is probably lousy because the variance of economic levels in these regions are very large (free, however, to the Baltic States is the regionalization of non-differentiated. (c) at least at the Estonian Presidency should be EL/27-s this problem also scientifically Agendasse to push it, especially considering that such as Econ.com 1. (IV) on the basis of the forecast of GDP by 2017 2018 on the fresh, it seems likely that the Member States are able to argue that the sigma divergence seems to continue deepening and, thus, mitmegi perifeeriariigi (especially in the adjacent kiskjaliku (Tirole (1992) the term oligopolide in theory) for the Empire) the likelihood of the sustainability of the national sustainability seems to eksistentsiaalselt decreasing – if still in võimurid especially in the Member States (in particular the high levels of concentration, where Russian-speaking) of the true socio-küberneetilistest (Inc. EL/27 the promotion of social capital as a whole) to the problems of the bankers/kröösuste management populistlikult/teaduslagedalt along to look at (by the way, the newspaper The Economist has the skilled workforce, teadusosakonda).

Understandably, it must also include the Agendasse issue:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=TA&reference=P8-TA-2016-0440&language=ET&ring=A8-2016-0317

Acknowledgements: Thank YOU for the financial contribution to the WHITE PAPER on the Board which allowed me to get close to half the paid fresh scientific publications, including the latest Amazon Kindle very quickly the monographs suhtkalleid; deep, thanks to the Tallinn University Academic Library in order to allow me to free access to thousands of articles and advice on proper sciensdirect.com; for the hundreds of comments, thanks to his long-time academic colleagues in this area: Geoffrey Hodgson, Attiat f. Ott, Ilari Tyrni, Teet Rajasalu, Peep the Shade , Jaak Uibu, Aigi Rahi-Oak, Alari Drunk, Aksel Kirch, Anton Laur, …

In particular it would be grateful to the expected charitable kaasautoritele – I’m totally aware of that, so far, for the pursuit of the complicated area of prognostilisel alone, in principle, does not create sufficient to virtually tõeväärtusega the results.

 

ADD (the retsenseerimata and the unedited draft 23. (IV) 17 – not to refer to the)

“The better the approximately right than exactly wrong”

J.M. Keynes

The visible and invisible of national macro-evaluation of the approximate financial resources, examples and the corresponding financial assessment of the effects of long-term okupatsioonikahjude – Estonian national sustainability the sustainability aspect, the likelihood of both international alliances if hübriidsõja conditions

  1. Standard/formal market economy of human capital (SMHC) per capita (p. c) on average in the OECD (2011) on the basis of the results of the generalized transfer (see the Abstract claim that the whole of the SMHC is 8 to 10 times higher than the volume of the GDP (SGDP) – with the likelihood of the accuracy of the results of such studies are assessed at least 0.9 the level. This OECD study is done in a dozen relatively rich and ethnically homogeneous major national and the transfer of the results of the Bayes ‘ by being ethnically rich and majandusliidus perifeersele of the results of the confidence of the corresponding threats requires the reduction of the likelihood of also-if the extension of the usalduspiiride (see, for example, the Tongeren & Picavet(2016)), and the official statistics (GDP and population, etc.) for the data, we can get a big ligikaudsusega and, at the same time, probably a sufficient likelihood of subjective/Bayesliku (0.8) were initially assessed at current market prices in 2016 to the Estonian market and expected by the method of income-the average SMHC p. subparagraph (c) is placed in the : € (0, 1, 0, 2) 0.1 and 0.2 M – which is the paragraph in the lower and the upper confidence limit and M stands for million.

NB to: (a) the average of the whole population, it is the usalduslõik with the OECD (2011), such as some of the elite-cohort score may be close to twice that of the average overcome perhaps be, for example, € (0, 1, 0, 2) M, and contrary to what-is probably the hübriidsõja conditions appropriate to define it as a negative average kohorte (b) in determining the entity of the national whole SMHC 2016. (a) the number of the population to be used as a net at this point must be taken into account only domestic residents, such as the occupation of the population due to irreversible losses in economic terms also include the occupation of the Polish emigrants during the occupation, the politically discriminated against persons, the occupation of the educational opportunities lost due to injuries, and (c) and which are also important: the entire population of a distortion in the structure (in particular venestamisega) caused the damage (as Eurostat (2016) by those born in third countries (in particular, therefore, the Russian-speaking) positive economic activity is lower than our põhirahvuse – however, these statistical data is currently in need of refinement (because of the conditions of the hübriidsõja in recent years, the ethnic polarity probably growing).

  1. the Informal/non-market kodumajanduslik (sic! puhtmajanduslik but the rated current in the standard market prices) of the IMHC p. (c) perhaps also the so-called satellite GDP (a housewife raising children, a home for elderly care, home chores, etc.) to volumes of statisticians will be assessed (e.g., on the basis of the official statistics of active tegevustundide) by an average of 2 to 3 times larger than the IMHC p. c – thus € (0, 2, 0, 6), M.
  2. the National informal social capital (an amorphous = visible/invisible, and formal statistics largely incomplete – the acronym NISC): Estonian, as of 2013, for there is some quantitative measurements made on the level of social capital index to the OECD (in 2016), the study-which is, unfortunately, been limited only to the extent of the national evaluation of the General level of 10 points in the system and the structure of the film, in the form of the indicator is presented – which seems to be more or less at the level of the average of the EU-28-5.8 points. In doing so, such factors as the undifferentiated/separeerimata: reproduktiivsus of the population and the related family biological reserves, social/social capital of communities, economic inequality, ethnic heterogeneity, the aggressor Empire, strategic communications diversioonoperatsioonide hübriidsõja ängide, the negative impact of destructive ethnic asümmeetrilisus (e.g., Ott & Ennuste (1996)), etc. The national informal (formal/official statistics greatly lacking in particular as regards prices), social capital (NISC) to assess the financial volume of p c (including, for example, especially in the assessment of the volume of the capital-reproduktiivsus) there are no market prices, and the standard must be high in reliability, the trials, the first to migrate to the informal use of duaalhindade (varihindade). It ideally for large dynamic stohhastiliste optimeerimismudelite dekomponeeritud duaalhinnad endogeenselt lead into the settlement where the (unfortunately, the Estonian on such numerical models are currently missing), then the remains over to the larger ligikaudsusega and the lower level of confidence to fall back on international panels to the use of faktoranalüüside, such as econometric Rajasalu (2003) and, in particular, the so-called “black box method: where God directly (that one time, Rajasalu) applied in the calculation of factor of amorphous social capital are not implemented – but indirectly we can find by Rajasalu (2003), sotsiaalkapitalile lähendeid, and, through them, the evaluation of the volumes of the NISC p. (c) the use of relevant international research-based estimates of the raw, subjective ( in this case, sadly, only the data of the temporal transformeerimist with the expected future amounts to diskonteerimisega (see OECD (2016)) the amounts, timing and past Estonian 2016 value-terms and conditions (see, e.g., Ennuste (1996)): NISC p. c-€ (0, 3; 1) M.
  3. the National traditional physical capital (OECD term – here the acronym NTFC). On OECD (2016), a study has claimed that TFC (natural resources, national infrastructure assets with, such as and, together with the full and includes light and gold) size is generally smaller than the SMHC – thus, roughly correspond to the conditions of the war initially, appreciate the hybrid not taller than 6 to 12 times the SGDP p. (c) perhaps in 2016. (a) the NTFC. p. (c) is in the range of € (0, 1, 0, 2) M.
  4. the Ethnic-National institutsioonkapitali (NINC) include, in particular, the assets of the national administrative institutions such as in particular, Fukuyama (2014): the national-and support political organisations, national conservation organizations, national monetary and fiscal system, together with the tax arrangements, international alliances, blokkidesse, membership, etc. Their financial olevikuväärtus, in particular, their investments to create a measurable and amortiseerumisega (Hodgson (1998)). The author’s opinion, their aggregated financial details as a reliable measurement of the makrovarade for the free mesoökonoomiliste in the bin of the plant) is probably still need a large detailed statistical field work to do micro: very, very tentatively, and subjectively/intuitively could NINC p. (c) rating range from € (0, 1, 0, 2) M – see, for example, Ennuste (by 2016).
  5. the National informal intellektuaalvara (NIIC) as the national: research and uskumusvara and cultural treasures are also measurable in these systems to advance the ages during the panustuste and hävitustega of the corresponding assets and the abductions (such as the destruction of the values of historical architecture by warfare, the libraries of the devastation, the works of art of stealing, etc.) in the opinion of the author, again, their aggregated financial details, free of makrovarade as a reliable measurement is probably still need a large detailed statistical field work to do: the very tentatively, and subjectively/intuitively could NIIC p. (c) rating range from € (0, 1; 0 , 2) M – see, for example, Ennuste (by 2016).

P.S.: Obviously it would be a different tõeväärtusega of the above, the provisional to peruse the large amounts macro ligikaudsusega totals (weighted the various rough tõeväärtustega) widely to publish is not worthwhile-before the study is not relevant to the international independent (sic!), the adjusted by oivakeskuste. But, however, these amounts can be quite likely to assume, such as that in Estonia until the studies of long-term occupation of the national majanduskahjude of the NLi’s-the modern macroeconomics and sotsiaalküberneetika rakursist-in the half-price: and it is hübriidsõja in the conditions of national strategies/policies need to optimize a numerically even large ligikaudsusega to know – because, unfortunately, the hübriidsõda is largely directed at reokupeerimisele and is based substantially on long-term occupation and prior to this waste of our national resources by the extent of damage (Schmid-Schmidsfelden & Potapova (2016) , RAND (2017).

 

P.S.P.S.: The accuracy of the probability of exceeding 0.7:

SMHC p. c-€ (0, 1, 0, 2) M-E (0, 2)-P (0, 9)

IMHC p. c-€ (0, 2, 0, 6), M-E (0, 4)-P (0, 8)

NISC p. c-€ (0, 3; 1) to M-E (0, 7)-P (0, 7)

NTFC p. c-€ (0, 1, 0, 2) M-E (0, 2) – (…)

NINC p. c-€ (0, 1, 0, 2) M-E (0, 2) – (…)

NIIC p. c-€ (0, 2, 0, 4), M-E (0, 3) – (…)

__________________________

Total p (c), (E), (2, 2) M and P (0, 7), where E is the code for the rounded average of the upward-and-P (…) of the conditional probability of the lower limit of the range, accuracy, and can adhere, such as P (0, 9), we assume an average of 95% of the usaldustõenäosust in the ring (usalduspiirides +/-15%), and P = (0, 7) in the case of usalduspiirides +/-50% and-(…) indicates that an adequate clarification of the data in the usaldusväärsuseni will continue. Technically, Bayes conditional probability is defieeritud ‘ lik if P (A/B), where B stands for usaldustõenäosust is currently used in the database here.

Thus, currently the entire nationalist would be the major financial resources of the rating in euro on average: (1, 3 x 10 * 6) (2×10, 2 * 6) = > 2, 5 x 10 * 12, or more than € 2, 5tn – where tn is the code of a trillion (trillion = 10 * 12 – where the * is the exponent symbol)-perhaps 2016 would be the major financial resources of the Estonian national estimate of the volume of 2.5 trillion euro in a circle: (2; 3) tn – P (0, 7).

While an average of one per Finnish financial resources could be the size of the currently important to evaluate an average of at least two times taller, perhaps at least five million euro in the ring – it plenty of higher inflation due to the lack of a long-term occupation of the NLi’s direct (see, for example, the cock (2005) and in the Ennuste (1996)). Thus, based on the resources we could assess the financial damage our long-term occupation in p. (c) now is to assess the two million euro in the ring: (1, 5; 2, 5), M perhaps nationalist (2; 3) within the limits of the euro likely tn P (0.7) in the ring. Add to that the remains of the cock (2005) by the corresponding assessment, published in particular, which was based on the kaotustele, at least, was the formal SGDP flows less than a dozen times as a member of the National Commission on – because the do not have the freedom to not take into account the moral informaalselt of national human or socio-cultural-and also in the physical-asset losses.

What’s more important to Rahi-Oak (2005), published by P (0, 9) the occupation of the fatal casualties include (in the context of the treatment of that era) is not included in the emigration of many of the repressed people not resident nor the relatives to a significant loss of operational resources of the reproduction of the population – yet the domestic aspect of the national makroökonoomilisest and sustainability is an important consideration of such factors – and – the data necessary for adequate adjustments in the coming years continues to be undertaken in the Baltic countries (StratCom COM? )-thus, the long-term national assessments of casualties of the financial volumes of the okupatsioonilised (the missing item 7.) for future studies will remain in parishes.

 

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The accuracy of the probability of exceeding 0.9

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Abstract

The main purpose of the paper is to identify challenges that occur “developing strategies based on the national intellectual capital (NIC) in the measurements. As it can be observed from the IC to the literature, even though there are different methods to measure the NIC, they are not commonly used among policy makers as a tool for strategic management decisions to raise the competiveness of the nation. This paper compares different approaches to measure the NIC, reveals related problems and provides possible explanations accordingly. The findings of the paper show that there is a big gap between academic research and policy makers. The four major directions of explanations to bridge this gap are highlighted in the paper: (1) the poor awareness of IC concept among policy makers, (2) the methodology related issues, (3) changing the leadership profile and (4) collaboration related issues. The insights to the possible solutions are also presented. They reveal the need to research different countries regarding their NIC policy.

© by 2015 by The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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ABSTRACT

This paper summarizes the outcomes of the first phase of the OECD human capital project. In so doing, it shows the feasibility of applying the lifetime income approach to measuring human capital for comparative analysis, both across countries and over time. It also highlights the feasibility of applying the methodology to the categorical data (i.e. by 5-year or 10-year age group) that are typically available within the OECD statistics system, rather than to data by single year of age required by the original Jorgenson-Fraumeni methodology. The results in this paper indicate that the recoverable amount of the value of human capital is substantially larger than that of the traditional physical capital. Ratios of human capital to GDP, are in a range of from around eight to over ten across countries, broadly in line with those reported in a number of national studies. The distributions of human capital by age, gender, and education show that men dominate women in terms of their human capital holdings. In addition, people with higher education are better off than those with lower education, and the same is true for younger people, compared to their older counterparts, although the detailed patterns vary across countries. Decomposition on the analysis of changes in the volume of the human capital demonstrates that changes in population structure between men and women had little effect on the change of human capital per capita. While in all countries in higher educational attainment contributed positively to the change of human capital per capita, this is not always sufficient to offset the negative effect of population ageing;

as a result, the volume of the human capital per capita appeared to have declined in some countries over the observed period. Finally, a sensitivity analysis confirms that estimates of the value of human capital depend on the choice of the two key parameters, i.e. annual real income growth rate and discount rate, while within-country distribution of human capital and the trends of the volume of the human capital are less sensitive to these assumptions.

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The report’s authors by Eurostat shows the composition of:

The leading

Professor Joseph E. STIGLITZ, Chair, Columbia University

Professor Amartya SEN, Has The Chair, Harvard University

Professor Jean-Paul FITOUSSI, Coordinator of the Commission, the IEP

http://www.stiglitz-sen-fitoussi.fr

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Likely more than 0.8

Chou, Yuan (2006) “Three simple models of social capital and

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DOI: 10.1016/j. socec. 2005.11.053

Abstract

This paper proposes three models of social capital and growth that incorporate different perspectives on the concept of social capital and the empirical evidence gathered to date. In these models, the social capital impacts growth by assisting in the accumulation of human capital, by affecting financial development through its effects is the collective trust and social norms, and by facilitating networking between firms that result in the creation and diffusion of business and technological innovations. We solve for the optimal allocation of resources channelled into the building of the so:: practical information for the capital, to examine the models ‘ comparative statics and dynamics, and demonstrate how a tax and subsidy scheme may correct the resource under-allocation that results from the public good aspect of social capital creation. Observed, in the social capital across countries are explained by, in government policies and the possibility of multiple equilibria and social capital, the poverty of noughts and crosses.

© 2006 Published by Elsevier Inc.

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Abstract

The main purpose of the paper is to identify challenges that occur “developing strategies based on the national intellectual capital (NIC) in the measurements. As it can be observed from the IC to the literature, even though there are different methods to measure the NIC, they are not commonly used among policy makers as a tool for strategic management decisions to raise the competiveness of the nation. This paper compares different approaches to measure the NIC, reveals related problems and provides possible explanations accordingly. The findings of the paper show that there is a big gap between academic research and policy makers. The four major directions of explanations to bridge this gap are highlighted in the paper: (1) the poor awareness of IC concept among policy makers, (2) the methodology related issues, (3) changing the leadership profile and (4) collaboration related issues. The insights to the possible solutions are also presented. They reveal the need to research different countries regarding their NIC policy.

© by 2015 by The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Dan Kahan, M., Asheley Landrum, Katie Carpenter, Laura Helft, Kathleen Hall Jamieson (2017), “the Science of Curiosity and Political Information Processing”-the Political Psychology “-38:179-199, doi: 10.1111/pops .12396, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pops.12396/epdf

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Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (by 2015), “Economic shocks, the civil war and ethnicity” – the Journal of Development Economics 115:32-44:

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http://www.etera.ee/zoom/8725/view?page=1&p=separate&view=0,0,2067,2834

 Tõesusega more than 0.7

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(there is no assessment of the loss of national resources)

The Ministry of finance (12. (IV) 2017), 2017. the spring economic forecast. RM võrguteavik: 76lk means the compiler of the Madis Aben .

NB: the sustainability of the national (RJ) is the aspect of this is the line that will reduce the disadvantages of the credibility of the (a), such as Estonian RJ lähendi-convergence EU/28 for the average (mm) in the “forecast” is here until 2015! – with 2016 on the formal statistics is available – Furthermore, it is the “prognosis” teadustühiselt currency PPS garbled (b) projections is the big gap in this regard that there is no macro-resources for the prognosis, such as part of the balance of payments – therefore remains unknown to what extent will continue in the coming years through the national financial accounts financial assets slikerdamine under the petunimede of investments abroad by residents as well as e-by the residents of the (c) the reliability of the forecasts published by the severe lack of usalduspiiride and the regressandide of several of the decreases, thus probably the hübriidsõja risks (in particular, the sanctions of the war) in nationalist irresponsible ignoring.

 

 

Visand 24.IV 17 (automaattõlkimiseks)

Ülo Ennuste (24.IV 17) Sotsiaal-küberneetiline lühiuurimus väikese rahvusriigi eksistentsiaalsete ressursside ligikaudse rahalise hindamise meetoditest, hübriid-jätkusõja tingimustes rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse kriteeriumi alusel: illustreerivaid eksperimentaal-arvutusi Eesti näitel koos eelmise poolesajandilise okupatsiooni kui ka selle pikaajaliste jäänuste kahjustuste negatiivsete mõjude ilmutatud arvestamisega

Eelmärkusi  

XXI sajandi akadeemiline sotsiaal-küberneetika peavool hindab hübriid sõja tingimustes solidaarsestesse kooperatiivsesse/koordineeritavasse suurliitudesse kuuluva rahvusliku väikeriigi majanduslikku-, sotsiaalset- ja küberneetilist-edukust eeskätt Meta-GDP põhiselt: eeskätt rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse lähendi – konvergentsi kestlikkuse tingliku Bayes’liku tõenäosuse muutude alusel – ning makro-mudelites rahvuslikke institutsioone (Hodgson (2007;1998) ja ressursse ning riske ilmutatud kujul rahaliselt kvantifitseerides nii positiivselt kui negatiivselt –  ja seda eriti inimkapitali ning ka sotsiaalkapitali mahtude rahalise mõõtmisega nii otseselt kui kaudselt – ning rahaliselt mõõtes ka viimatise pikaajalise terroristliku okupatsiooni poolt tekitatud rahvuslikke kaotusi eeskätt inim-, sotsiaal- ning kultuuri-vara jne osas – sest praeguses hübriidsõjas on agressori eesmärgiks järjekordselt eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse erodeerimine püüdes selleks ka tugineda eelnenud okupatsiooni poolt tekitatud komplikatsioonidele – optimaalsete heidutus-strateegiate ja –poliitikate kavandamine nõuab vastavate rahvuslike ressursside mahtude võrreldavat kvantitatiivset hindamist ning selleks koostööd teaduslikku koostööd liitlaste sõltumatute oivakskustega.

  • Stiglitz et al. (2010) panevad rangelt teadusloogiliselt kindlalt paika et standardsed/formaalsed GDP indikaatorid on valdavas osas kitsalt turumajanduslikel voogudel põhinevad ja seega sobimatud nii rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kui ka heaolu hindamiseks – seda eriti hübriidsõja suure määramatuse ning riskide tingimustes – ning ka rahvuslike tulude teaduslagedate ümberjagamise disfunktsionaalsete institutsioonide tingimustes (nt 0-kasumimaks mis partnerriike kahjustab ja hübriidsõjas agressorit subsideerib jne); edasi jäävad turumajanduslikust arvestusest välja nii rahvusliku sotsiaal-, inim-, kultuur- jne kapitalide/varade loomise jooksvate mahtude arvestused ning ressursside varude kui faktotite arvestused: mis veelgi olulisem et standardse GDP arvestuse sisse lähevad parajasti positiivselt nt mitmed hübriidsõja poolt põhjustatud kuriteod – nt 2007 pronksmäsu purustuste taastamistööd jne (Raporti usaldusväärsust kinnitab autorite teaduslik tippkompetentsus – koosseis lisatud – selles puuduvad nii politikaanid kui ka pankurid ning plutokraadid ja muud magnaadid nagu meil tavaks jne)

NB: Tõelise (G) mitteformaalse/teaduspõhise GGDP mahtude mõningad esialgsed rakenduslikud kvantitatiivsed hinnangumeetodid ja nende esialgsed tulemused arvestades mitteformaalseid nn sateliitkontosid on kirjeldatud ülevaatlikult järgnevates uurimustes

  http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gdp-and-beyond/publications

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/beyond_gdp/index_en.html

 osundavad et akadeemilised/informaalsed GGDP mahud duaalhindades (ehk varihindades) milliseid on võimalik turuhindade puudumisel optimiseerimisteooriate võimekustega ligikaudselt rahaliselt hinnata – ületavad standardseid magnituudides ning inimressursside (laias mõistes koos põhielanikkonna reprodutseerimise kapitaliga) rahaline väärtus ületab selles kontekstis oluliselt füüsilise kapitali mahtu (vt nt OECD (2011) mis kahjuks kitsalt turumajandusliku statistika alusel ja kus Eesti kohta arvutused puuduvad – ja OECD (2016) kus leidub mõnigaid kaudseid kvantifikatsioone ka Eesti sotsiaalkapitali kohta).

  • Stiglitz et al. järgi arvestada tuleb adekvaatselt elanikkonna rahvuslikku turuvälist tegevust nii tulude hankimisel kui ka rahvuslike investeeringute soetamisel ja rahvuslike ressursside loomisel – seda eriti nii rahvusliku inim- kui ka sotsiaal- ning füüsilise- ja institutsionaal- kapitali soetamisel kodumajapidamiste ja turuväliste institutsioonide poolt – ning nende ressursside rahaliste mahtude hindamisel – ja seda suuresti informaalsete duaalhindade alusel. OECD (2011) keeruka valemi järgi inimkapitali mahu hindamine on keerukas isegi kitsalt turumajandusliku käsitluse puhul kus nt ei arvestata ka põlisrahva reproduktiivsusega seotud kodumajapidamiste inimressurssi – sama vihjavad Diamond&Saez jne; samuti ka sotsiaalkapitaliga lood eriti hübriidsõja riskide tingimustes arvestades sellega kaasnevaid rahvuslikke änge (vt nt Ott&Ennuste (1996) mis asümmeetrilised etniliste rühmade lõikes nt: eestikeelsed ja venekeelsed). Ja vt ka Chou (2006) abstrakti mis lisatud; rääkimata rahvuslikest küberneetiliste institutsionaalkapitalide rahalistest hinnanguest – KUNČIČ (2014).
  • Siinjuures on kahetsusväärne et suures osas meie rahvuslikud majandus- ning rahandus-poliitikud on poliitiliselt kitsalt motiveerituna jäänud rahvuslikult ebaadekvaatsete deterministlike GDP indikaatorite kummardajateks siiani (vt LISA) – mis moonutavad nende arusaamu tegelikust olukorrast ja riskide suurusest ning viivad neid rahvuslikult ränkadele väärotsustustele nt putinoid trollide poolt tekitatavatele rahvusliku sotsiaalkapitali kahjustustele eeskätt kiilulõõmisega ELis ning NATOs. Seda eriti hübriidsõja riskide tingimustes (vt Kissinger (2014), Lucas (2014), Toomse (2015), Kaljulaid (2017) jne) ning veelgi rohkem majandusküberneetiliste mehhanismide disainimisel – Diamond&Saez (2011) järgi nt praegune meie 0-kasumimaks on teaduslage mehhanism ning samas negatiivne institutsioon – eriti kui arvestada riskidega ning määramatustega.
  • Näiteid hübriidsõja probleemidest: strateegilise kommunikatsiooni sõjast 1) vt nt sanktsioonide sõjast Ennuste (2014) toodud kirjanduse viidetest et on vaja hierarhilist koordineerimissüsteemi kooperatiivses liidus 2) strateegilise kommunikatsiooni sõjast vt viiteid Ennuste (2008) et on vaja „sõnavabaduse“ piiranguid kremlimeelsete trollide suhtes jne 3) tähelpanu väärib ka nn ifolõhe akadeemilise ning poliitkorporatiivse leeri vahel (Januskaite&Uziene (2015) ja Kahan et al. (2017) tõdevad et seda lõhet mõnevõrra võib leevenda mõningate võimurite uudishimu) süvenemine strateegilises kommunikatsioonisõjas akadeemiliste ja poliitiliste institutsioonide vahel (vt ka StratCom COE (2015)) – seda eriti väikerahvuslike jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse riskide tõenäosuslikkuse mõistmise osas 4) eriti sügav lõhe on on ühelt poolt tõenäosusliku käsitluse (teadusloogilises käsitluses tõde on tõenäosuslik ja vale ning faktoidid võivad pärineda mitte ainult pudrupäisusest vaid tõenäoselt ka sulilikust salakavalsusest (Wiener (1948)) – eriti strateegilises kommunikatsioonis) – ning teiselt poolt subjektiivse poliit-determinismi vahel (kus kasutusel hägusloogika).

Näide: NLi poolt pikaajalise okupatsiooni ja selle jäätmetega tekitatud rahvuslike täilike tõeliste kahjude rahalisest hindamisest kus arvestatakse eeskätt inimvaradega nt

 https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/do-not-quote-18-xi-16/

NB: nt NLi pikaajalise okupatsiooni poolt Eestile tekitatud kahjude täiesti formaalne (riikliku standardese statistika alusel seega rahvuslike ressursside olemeid arvestamata) korrektne hinnang (Kukk (2005) tõenäoselt piirides (0,1;0,2)tn eurot (tn on 10 astmel 12) – seda küll 2004. a. andmete ja makroökonoomiliste peavoolu teooriate ning metodoloogiate alusel) ning – nagu tookordse Riikliku Komisjoni raames diplomaatiliselt eetiliselt korrektselt (nt Kirch et al. (2009)) oli võimalik (sh on Kukk vastutustundlikult tõdenud et NLi okupatsioon oli sisuliselt kolonisatsioon mis Fukuyama (2014 lk391) järgi seab esmaseks põlisrahvuse hävitamise) – arvestades nt et meie II Vabadussõja (Lindmäe (1999-2015) Köide IX lk542)) kaotused tulid täiesti maha vaikida – osutub nüüd parajasti hübriidsõja riskide tingimustes ning informaalsetes teaduspõhistes käsitlustes täiesti tühiseks – seda eriti meie rahvuslike inimvarade tohutute kaotuste tõttu barbaarses okupatsioonis ning pikaajaluste kahjustuste arvestuses mis jätkuvad siiani (Raukas (2005) nt radioaktiivsed jäätmed – vt ka LISA).

P.S.: On selge et ülalkirjeldatud kompleksete rahvuslike rahaliste informaalsete akadeemiliste tõenäosuslike (suuresti Bayes’like subjektiivsete hinnangute alusel: Tongeren et al. (2016) ning kaudsete makroökonoomiliste mõõtmiste tulemustel nagu nt Rajasalu (2003)) hinnangute usaldusväärsust hübriidsõja määramatuste ning strateegilise antagonistliku kommunikatsiooni tingimustes saab kindlustada – ainult ja ainult – laialdase hästi koordineeritud rahvusvahelise koostöö raames – rahvuslike teadmusstruktuuride sünergia metasünteesis. Jääb ehk vaid veel lisada et nendes rahvuslikes teadmus-struktuurides sisaldub tohutu akadeemiline vara – eeskätt sadade asjakohaste tippteaduslike ajakirjade ning sadade tuhandete tippteoreetiliste uurimuste sees peidus – kuigi mitmedki nendest uurimustest võib leida/osta mõne klikiga nt ka allolevate osunduste kirjandusviidetest – kuid ühelgi väikeriigil ei ole tippteadlaste pink küllalt pikk et kogu selles suures multi-dimensionaalsuses ning dünaamikas ja määramatuses ning komplementaarsete meetodite vallas üksi opereerida ning püüda arvukaid poliitpõhiseid korporatiivseid rahvuslikku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosust õõnestavaid populistlikke väärotsuseid ära hoida – kuigi kohati oleks seda võimalik kiiresti ja kergesti teha nt: (a) nt teaduspõhiselt on  strateegilise kommunikatsiooni sõjas teatav “sõnavabaduse” piiramine absoluutselt oblikatoorne (vt nt Ennuste (2008). Nt isegi President Kaljulaid’i WaPo artiklile – https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russia-is-a-threat-estonia-frets-about-its-neighbor/2017/03/24/011ad320-0f2b-11e7-9b0d-d27c98455440_story.html?utm_term=.ab0febde5386 – on ilmselt tosinad Kremli trollid diversioonilisi kommentaare lisanud (ja seda naljakam on et samas artiklis tunnistatakse ilmselt poliit-korrektsusest tõsiseltvõetavaks ilmselt kremlimeelse Y. Toom’i faktoidi nagu et venekeelses Narvas polevat parajasti mitte ühtegi putinoidi – muide Narva muudeti kiskjaliku NLi poolt venekeelseks sõjakuritegelikult etnilise puhastuse käigus ning seega parajasti eriti ohtlikus olukorras võimaliku kodusõja sütikuna Venemaa kaasabil – vt nt Thorsten&Riera-Crichton (2015)) (b) väga lihtne oleks läheneva Eesti eesistumise ajal EL/27-s jõustada teaduspõhised riske ning sulisid arvestavad maksuseadused mis liikmesriikides kõlvatute hargmaiste maksuparadiiside institutsioonid likvideeriks (vt EL Komisjoni vastavaid ettevalmistavaid Raporteid viimatistel aastatel) – ja – sellega EL/27 kui terviku nii sotsiaalkapitali kui ka kaitsevõimet suurendaks (samas kui meil teadustühiselt asendusteemasid kilplaslikult seltskonnameedias üles soojendatakse ning rahvuslikku teadmusruumi hägustatakse nt robotite sotsiaalmaksustamise dispuutidega jne :==) (c) mis selles hübriidsõjas meie jaoks eriti oluline et kiskjalik agressor eelnenud okupatsioonis kahjustas inimsusevastaselt oluliselt meie nii etnilist kui ka vaimset rahvuslikku struktuuri (vt nt Mägi et al. (2016) ja Noor (2005)) ning nüüd püüab valelikult siinse venekeelse elanikkonna inimõiguste päästmise nimel järjekordselt okupatsiooni taastada seejuures eestluse rahvuslikku sotsiaalkapitali nii rahvuslikult kui ka ideoloogiliselt lõhestades: seejuures üheks peamiseks relvaks valed valede otsa – nagu poleks okupatsiooni olnudki ja et küüditamise olid eesti rahva päästmiseks ning vene keel tuleb taastada riigikeelena jne. Täiesti kindlasti olid okupatsioonis meie põhirahvuse inimvara ja rahvusliku teadmusruumi kvaliteedi kaotused tohutud ning pikaajalised – XXI sajandi mõistes magnituudides suuremad senihinnatutest ja siiani oluliselt vähendavad eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosust – kuni ajaloolisele tõele tõeliselt/teaduspõhiselt näkku ei vaadata: nt et suure tõenäosusega juba tunamullu Tallinnas v.k domineeris (uurimuse Mägi et al. (2016) järgi).

P.S.P.S.: (a) tekst on mõeldud erialase rahvusvahelise koostöö hõlbustamiseks ning selles mõttes eeskätt ingl masintõlke jaoks sobivaid termineid ning koma asemel mõttekriipse kasutades ja nt GDP (kodumaine kogutoodang ja mitte SKT/SKP jne) (b) 30.III 2017 Eurostat avaldas värske ülevaate EL/28 276 piirkonna GDP p.c ebavõrdsuste kohta: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/news/news-releases. Kuigi see ülevaade on XXI sajandi makroökonoomika seisukohalt vaegteaduslik (vt nt Atkinson (2017) – nt kajastab ainult kitsalt turumajanduslikke indekseid) – siiski võib sellest ülevaatest nt ka OECD teadusosakondade raportite põhjal järeldada et ELi kui terviku sotsiaalkapitali tase on tõenäoselt vilets sest nende piirkondade majanduslike tasemete dispersioon on väga suur (seejures Balti-Riigid on piirkondadeks liigendamata jäänud. (c) vähemalt Eesti eesistumise ajal tuleks EL/27-s see probleem teaduspõhiselt Agendasse suruda  seda eriti arvestades et nt Econ.com 1.IV 2017 värske GDP prognoosi alusel 2018 kohta näib suure tõenäosusega et liikmesriikide lõikes on võimalik väita et sigma divergents näib jätkuvalt süvenevat ning seega mitmegi perifeeriariigi (eriti mis külgnevad kiskjaliku (Tirole (1992) termin oligopolide teoorias) impeeriumiga) rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosus näib eksistentsiaalselt kahanevat – kui endiselt võimurid eriti liikmesriikides (eriti kus venekeelsete kontsentreeritus kõrge) tõelistest sotsiaal-küberneetilistest (inc EL/27 kui terviku sotsiaalkapitali edendamisest) probleemidest pankurite/kröösuste juhtimisel populistlikult/teaduslagedalt mööda vaatavad (muide ajaleht The Economist omab kompetentset teadusosakonda).

Arusaadavalt peab Agendasse kuuluma ka see probleemistik:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=TA&reference=P8-TA-2016-0440&language=ET&ring=A8-2016-0317

Tänuavaldused: tänan SA VALGE RAAMAT juhatust rahalise toetuse eest mis võimaldas mul hankida ligemale poolsada tasulist värsket teaduspublikatsiooni sh väga kiiresti Amazon Kindle viimatisi suhtkalleid monograafiaid; sügav tänu Tallinna Ülikooli Akadeemilisele Raamatukogule võimaldamaks minul tasuta juurdepääsu tuhandetele sciensdirect.com artiklitele; asjalike nõuannete ning märkuste eest avaldan tänu oma pika-ajalistele akadeemilistele kolleegidele sellel alal: Geoffrey Hodgson, Attiat F. Ott, Ilari Tyrni, Teet Rajasalu, Peep Varju, Jaak Uibu, Aigi Rahi-Tamm, Alari Purju, Aksel Kirch, Anton Laur, …

Eriti tänulik oleks oodatavatele heategevuslikele kaasautoritele –  olen täiesti teadlik et niivõrd komplitseeritud prognostilisel alal üksi tegutsemine põhimõtteliselt ei loo praktiliselt piisava tõeväärtusega tulemusi.

 

LISA (retsenseerimata ja toimetamata visand 23.IV 17 – mitte viidata)

                                            „Parem  ligikaudu õige kui täpselt vale“

                                                                                              J.M. Keynes

Rahvuslike nähtavate ja nähtamatute makro-ressursside ligikaudse rahalise hindamise näiteid ning vastavate pikaajaliste okupatsioonikahjude mõjude rahalisest hindamisest – Eesti rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse aspektist nii rahvusvaheliste liitude kui hübriidsõja tingimustes

  1. Standardne/formaalne turumajanduslik inimkapital (SMHC) elaniku kohta (p.c) keskmiselt on OECD (2011) üldistatud tulemuste ülekandmise alusel (vt Abstract väidet et kogu SMHC on 8 kuni üle 10 korra suurem standardsest GDP mahust (SGDP) – kusjuures taoliste uuringute tulemuste tõesuse tõenäosust hinnatakse vähemalt 0,9 tasemele. See OECD uuring on tehtud tosina suhteliselt rikka ning etniliselt homogeense rahvusliku suurriigi kohta ja selle tulemuste Bayes’likul ülekandmisel etniliselt polaarsele ning rikkas majandusliidus perifeersele väikeriigile nõuab nii tulemuste vastavat usaldus-tõenäosuse vähendamist kui ka usalduspiiride laiendamist (vt ntTongeren&Picavet(2016)) ja ametliku statistika (GDP ja elanike arvu jne) andmetel saame suure ligikaudsusega ning samas ilmselt piisava subjektiivse/Bayesliku tõenäosusega (0,8) esialgselt hinnata et Eesti 2016 jooksvates turuhindades ja oodatavate turumajanduslike sissetulekute meetodil – keskmine SMHC p.c asetseb lõigus: €(0,1;0,2)M – kus 0,1 ja 0,2 on lõigu alumine ja ülemine usalduspiir ning M tähistab miljonit.

NB: (a) see on kogu elanikkonna keskmise usalduslõik kusjuures OECD (2011) järgi nt mõne eliit-kohordi keskmine võib ligemale kaks korda seda keskmist ületada ehk olla nt €(0,1;0,2)M ning vastupidiselt – on ilmselt hübriidsõja tingimustes otstarbekas defineerida negatiivse keskmisega kohorte (b) kogu rahvusliku SMHC olemi määramisel 2016. a. seisuga  kasutatava elanike neto arvu juures tuleb siinkohal arvestada ainult kodumaiste residentidega ning nt okupatsioonist tingitud elanikkonna pöördumatute kaotuste hulka kuuluvad majanduslikus mõttes ka okupatsiooni aegsed emigrandid, okupatsiooni ajal poliitiliselt diskrimineeritud isikud, okupatsiooni tõttu kaotatud haridusvõimalused ning tervisekahjustused (c) ning mis samuti oluline: kogu elanikkonna struktuuri moonutamisega (eeskätt venestamisega) tekitatud kahjustused (kuna Eurostati (2016) järgi kolmandates riikides sündinute (seega eeskätt venekeelsete) positiivne majandusaktiivsus on madalam meie põhirahvuse omast – kuid need statistilised andmed vajavad parajasti täpsustamist (sest hübriidsõja tingimustes viimastel aastatel on etniline polaarsus ilmselt süvenemas).

  1. Informaalne/turuväline kodumajanduslik (sic! puhtmajanduslik kuid hinnatud standardsetes jooksvates turuhindades) IMHC p.c ehk ka nn satelliit GDP (kodune laste kasvatamine, kodune eakate hooldamine, kodused majapidamistööd jne) mahud hinnatakse statistikute (nt aktiivsete tegevustundide ametlike statistikate alusel) poolt keskmiselt 2 kuni 3 korda suuremateks kui IMHC p.c – seega €(0,2;0,6)M.
  2. Rahvuslik informaalne sotsiaalkapital (amorfne=nähtav/mittenähtav ning formaalne statistika suuresti puudulik – akronüüm NISC):Eesti kohta 2013 seisuga on mõningaid kvantitatiivseid mõõtmisi tehtud sotsiaalkapitali indeksi taseme kohta OECD (2016) uurimuses – kus on küll kahjuks piirdutud ainult rahvusliku üldise koostöövalmiduse taseme hindamisega 10 punkti süsteemis ja näitaja struktuuri ilmutatud kujul ei esitata – mis olevat enam vähem EL/28 keskmisel tasemel 5,8 punkti. Seejuures eristamata/separeerimata selliseid faktoreid nagu: elanikkonna reproduktiivsus ning sellega seotud perekondlikud bioloogilised kapitalid, sotsiaalsete/seltskondlike ühenduste kapital, majanduslik ebavõrdsus, etniline heterogeensus, agressor impeeriumi strateegilise kommunikatsiooni diversioonoperatsioonide destruktiivne negatiivne mõju, hübriidsõja ängide etniline asümmeetrilisus (nt Ott&Ennuste (1996)) jne. Rahvusliku informaalse (formaalne/riiklik statistika oluliselt puudub eriti hindade osas) sotsiaalkapitali (NISC) rahalise mahu p.c hindamiseks (sh nt eriti reproduktiivsus-kapitali mahu hindamiseks) standardsed turuhinnad puuduvad ning tuleb kõrge usaldusväärsusega uuringutes esmalt siirduda informaalsete duaalhindade (varihindade) kasutamisele. Seda ideaalis suurte dünaamiliste stohhastiliste optimeerimismudelite dekomponeeritud lahendamisel kus duaalhinnad kujunevad endogeenselt (kahjuks Eesti kohta taolised kvantifitseeritud mudelid parajasti puuduvad) Siis jääb üle suurema ligikaudsusega ning väiksema usaldusväärsusega taanduda rahvusvaheliste paneelide ökonomeetriliste faktoranalüüside kasutamisele nt Rajasalu (2003) ja eeskätt nn musta kasti meetodil: kus küll otseselt (tollele Rajasalu ajale omaselt) amorfse sotsiaalkapitali faktorit rakenduslikes arvutustes ei rakendatud – kuid kaudselt saame Rajasalu (2003)järgi leida sotsiaalkapitalile lähendeid ning nende kaudu NISC p.c mahtude hindamisel toorelt kasutama vastavate rahvusvaheliste teaduspõhiste hinnangute subjektiivset (antud juhul kahetsusväärselt ainult andmete ajalise transformeerimist koos tuleviku oodatavate summade diskonteerimisega (vt OECD (2016)) ja mineviku summade ajastamisega Eesti 2016 hinna-tingimustesse (vt nt Ennuste (1996)): NISC p.c – €(0,3;1)M.
  3. Rahvuslik traditsiooniline füüsiline kapital (OECD termin – siin akronüüm NTFC).  OECD (2016) uurimuse väitel TFC (loodusvarad, rahvuslikud infrastruktuuri varad koos nt raskerelvastusega ning koos kulla ja finantsvaradega) maht on üldiselt väiksem kui SMHC – seega ligikaudselt hindame esialgselt hübriid sõja tingimustes mitte kõrgemaks kui 6 kuni 12 kordne SGDP p.c ehk 2016. a. NTFC p.c on vahemikus €(0,1;0,2)M.
  4. Rahvus-riikliku institutsioonkapitali (NINC) hulka kuuluvad eeskätt rahvuslike administratiivsete institutsioonide varad nagu eeskättFukuyama(2014) järgi: riiklikud- ja poliit-organisatsioonid, rahvusliku kaitse organisatsioonid, rahvuslik monetaar-ja fiskaal-süsteem koos maksusüsteemiga, rahvusvahelistesse liitudesse, blokkidesse, kuulumine jne. Nende rahaline olevikuväärtus on eeskätt mõõdetav nende loomiseks tehtud investeeringutega ning amortiseerumisega (Hodgson (1998)). Autori arvates nende agregeeritud makrovarade usaldusväärseks detailide vabaks rahaliseks mõõtmiseks mesoökonoomiliste agregaatide aluse) on ilmselt vaja veel mahukaid detailseid statistilisi välitöid teha mikrotasandil: väga esialgselt ning subjektiivselt/intuitiivselt võiks NINC p.c hinnang olla vahemikus €(0,1;0,2)M – vt nt Ennuste (2016).
  5. Rahvuslik informaalne intellektuaalvara (NIIC) nagu rahvuslik: teadus- ja uskumusvara ning kultuurivara on samuti mõõdetavad nendesse süsteemidesse eelnevalt aegade jooksul tehtud panustuste ning vastavate varade hävitustega ning röövimistega (nt okupantide poolt ajalooliste arhitektuuri väärtuste hävitamise, raamatukogude laastamise, kunstiteoste varastamisega jne) Jällegi autori arvates nende agregeeritud makrovarade usaldusväärseks detailide vabaks rahaliseks mõõtmiseks on ilmselt vaja veel mahukaid detailseid statistilisi välitöid teha: väga esialgselt ning subjektiivselt/intuitiivselt võiks NIIC p.c hinnang olla vahemikus €(0,1;0,2)M – vt nt Ennuste (2016).

P.S.: Arusaadavalt oleks ülaltoodud subjektiivseid erineva tõeväärtusega esialgseid suure ligikaudsusega makro summade kokkuvõtteid (kaalutud erinevate ligikaudsete tõeväärtustega) laialt avaldama pole mõttekas – enne kui  uuringut ei ole vastavate rahvusvaheliste sõltumatute (sic!) oivakeskuste poolt korrigeeritud. Kuid siiski nende summade saab juba üsna suure tõenäosusega oletada nt – et Eestis seni tehtud uuringud NLi pikaajalise okupatsiooni rahvuslike majanduskahjude kohta on – tänapäeva makroökonoomika ja sotsiaalküberneetika rakursist – magnituudides allahinnatud: ja seda on hübriidsõja tingimustes rahvuslike strateegiate/poliitikate optimeerimiseks vaja numbriliselt kasvõi suure ligikaudsusega teada – sest paraku hübriidsõda on suuresti reokupeerimisele suunatud ning tugineb oluliselt eelnenud pikaajalise okupatsiooni ja selle jäätmete poolt meie rahvuslike ressursside kahjustuste ärakasutamisele (Schmid-Schmidsfelden&Potapova (2016), RAND (2017).

 

P.S.P.S.: Tõesuse tõenäosusega üle 0,7:

SMHC p.c – €(0,1;0,2)M –  E(0,2) – P(0,9)

IMHC p.c – €(0,2;0,6)M –   E(0,4) – P(0,8)

NISC p.c –   €(0,3;1)M   –    E(0,7) – P(0,7)

NTFC p.c –  €(0,1;0,2)M   – E(0,2) – (…)

NINC p.c –  €(0,1;0,2)M –   E(0,2) – (…)

NIIC p.c –    €(0,2;0,4)M –  E(0,3) – (…)

__________________________

Kokku p.c E(2,2)M ja P(0,7) – kus E on ülespoole ümardatud keskmise tähis  – ja P(…) tingliku tõesuse tõenäosuse vahemiku võimalk alampiir ning nt P(0,9) puhul eeldame keskmiselt usaldustõenäosust 95% ringis (usalduspiirides +/-15%) ning P=(0,7) puhul usalduspiirides +/-50% ja – (…) tähistab et andmete täpsustamine piisava usaldusväärsuseni jätkub. Tehniliselt Bayes’lik tinglik tõenäosus on defieeritud kui P(A/B) kus B tähistab siin parajasti kasutatava andmebaasi usaldustõenäosust.

Seega parajasti kogu rahvuslikult oleks eurodes olulisemate ressursside rahaline hinnang keskmiselt: (1,3×10*6)(2,2×10*6)=>2,5×10*12 ehk rohkem kui €2,5tn  – kus tn on triljoni tähis (triljon =10*12 – kus * on astendaja tähis) – ehk 2016 oleks eesti olulisemate rahvuslike ressursside rahalise mahu hinnang 2,5 triljoni euro ringis: (2;3)tn – P(0,7).

Samas keskmiselt ühe soomlase kohta võiks parajasti oluliste ressursside rahalist mahtu hinnata keskmiselt vähemalt kaks korda kõrgemaks ehk vähemalt viie miljoni euro ringis – seda palju kõrgemana pikaajalise otsese NLi okupatsiooni puudumise tõttu (vt nt Kukk (2005) ja Ennuste (1996)). Seega võiksime ressursside põhiselt hinnata meie pikaajalise okupatsiooni rahalist kahju p.c praegu hinnata kahe miljoni euro ringis: (1,5;2,5)M ehk rahvuslikult (2;3)tn euro piiridesse tõenäosusega P(0.7) ringis. Jääb lisada et Kukk (2005) poolt aastal avaldatud vastav hinnang mis põhines eeskätt SGDP formaalsete voogude kaotustele oli vähemasti tosin korda väiksem – sest riikliku komisjoni liikmena ei omanud moraalset vabadust informaalselt arvestada ei rahvuslike inim- ega sotsiaal-kultuuriliste- ning ka füüsiliste-varade kaotustega.

Mis veelgi olulisem et Rahi-Tamm (2005) poolt korrektselt avaldatud P(0,9) okupatsiooni pöördumatud inimkaotuste hulka (tolle ajastu käsitluse kontekstis) ei ole arvestatud ei emigratsiooni ega ka represseeritute paljude residentidest sugulaste olulist väljalangemist töövõimeliste ning elanike reproduktsiooni ressurssidest  – ometi kodumaisest makroökonoomilisest ning rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse aspektist on taoliste faktorite arvestamine oluline – ning – nende andmete osas vajalikud piisavad täpsustused lähematel aastatel jätkuvalt näivat Balti-Riikides toimuvat (StratCom COM ?) – seega pikaajalised rahvuslikud okupatsioonilised inimkaotuste mahtude rahalised hindamised (puuduv punkt 7.) jäävad edaspidiste uurimuste valda.

 

        OSUNDUSI (rühmitatud nende tõesuste tõenäosuste järgi kolmeks)

Tõesuse tõenäosusega üle 0,9

Diamond, Peter; Emmanuel Saez (AUGUST 2011) The Case for a Progressive Tax: From Basic Research to Policy Recommendations. CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 3548 CATEGORY 1: PUBLIC FINANCE: http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/diamond-saezJEP11opttax.pdf

European Commission (February 2015) “What is the “Beyond GDP”:http://ec.europa.eu/environment/beyond_gdp/index_en.html

Fukuyama, Francis (2014) Political Order and Political Decay. FARRAR, STRAUS and GIROUX, New York: 658.

Januskaite, Virginija; Lina Uziene (2015) „Intellectual Capital Measurements and National Strategy Development: Explaining the Gap“ – Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences 213 ( 2015 ) 161 – 166: Available online at http://www.sciencedirect.com

Abstract

The main purpose of the paper is to identify challenges that occur developing strategies based on national intellectual kapital (NIC) measurements. As it can be observed from IC literature, even though there are different methods to measure NIC, they are not commonly used among policy makers as a tool for strategic management decisions to raise competiveness of nation. This paper compares different approaches to measure NIC, reveals related problems and provides possible explanations accordingly. The findings of the paper show that there is a big gap between academic research and policy makers. Four major directions of explanations to bridge this gap are highlighted in the paper: (1) poor awareness of IC concept among policy makers, (2) methodology related issues, (3) changing leadership profile and (4) collaboration related issues. The insights to possible solutions are also presented. They reveal the need to research different countries regarding their NIC policy.

© 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Kissinger, Henry (2014 –  e.k 2017)  World Order. Allen Lane: 420  (Index  on p408:  Estonia, Russian cyberattac on  p 345).

Lindmäe, Herbert (2015-1999) SUVESÕDA  … 1941, Tartu, OÜ Greif: 4825lk (sic! IX Köidet – üe).

OECD STATISTICS DIRECTORATE (10-Oct-2011) MEASURING THE STOCK OF HUMAN CAPITAL FOR COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION OF THE LIFETIME INCOME APPROACH TO SELECTED COUNTRIES – WORKING PAPER NO. 41 (This paper has been prepared by Gang LiuE-mail: gang.liu@oecd.org): http://www.oecd.org/std/research

 

ABSTRACT

This paper summarizes the outcomes of the first phase of the OECD human capital project. In so doing, it shows the feasibility of applying the lifetime income approach to measuring human capital for comparative analysis, both across countries and over time. It also highlights the feasibility of applying the methodology to the categorical data (i.e. by 5-year or 10-year age group) that are typically available within the OECD statistics system, rather than to data by single year of age required by the original Jorgenson-Fraumeni methodology. The results in this paper indicate that the estimated value of human capital is substantially larger than that of traditional physical capital. Ratios of human capital to GDP are in a range from around eight to over ten across countries, broadly in line with those reported in a number of national studies. The distributions of human capital by age, gender, and education show that men dominate women in terms of their human capital holdings. In addition, people with higher education are better off than those with lower education, and the same is true for younger people compared to their older counterparts, although the detailed patterns vary across countries. Decomposition analysis of changes in the volume of human capital demonstrates that changes in population structure between men and women had little effect on the change of human capital per capita. While in all countries higher educational attainment contributed positively to the change of human capital per capita, this is not always sufficient to offset the negative effect of population ageing;

as a result, the volume of human capital per capita appeared to have declined in some countries over the observed period. Finally, sensitivity analysis confirms that estimates of the value of human capital depend on the choice of the two key parameters, i.e. annual real income growth rate and discount rate, while within-country distribution of human capital and trends of the volume of human capital are less sensitive to these assumptions.

OECD (2016) How’s Life in Estonia? :

https://www.google.ee/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=OECD+(May+2016)+How%E2%80%99s+Life+in+Estonia%3F+Additional+information%2C+including+the+data+used+in+this+country+note%2C+can+be+found+at%3A+www.oecd.org%2Fstatistics%2FBetter-Life-Initiative-2016-country-notes-data.xlsx

Eurostat (110/2016 – 6 June 2016) Migrant integration in the EU labour market in 2015:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/news/news-releases?p_p_id=101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_state=normal&p_p_mode=view&p_p_col_id=column-2&p_p_col_count=1&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_delta=20&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_keywords=&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_advancedSearch=false&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_andOperator=true&p_r_p_564233524_resetCur=false&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_cur=2

Ott, A.F., U. Ennuste (1996) “Anxiety as a Consequence of Liberalization: an Analysis of Opinion Surveys in Estonia” – Social Science Journal, 33, 2, 149-164:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0362

Rahi-Tamm, Aigi (2005) “Human Losses” In:  The White Book: Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes 1940–1991”State Committee on the Investigation into Repression Policy of Occupation, Tallinn 2005: Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers:25-48:

http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

Rajasalu, Teet (2003) “Indicators of economic freedom and economic structure as determinants of growth and convergence in enlarging EU and priorities for Estonia”:  In: Essays in Estonian transformation economics, 2003, Tallinn: 9-32.

Raukas, Anto (2005) “Enormous Envirolmental Damage Caused by Occupation Army” In:  The White Book: Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes 1940–1991”State Committee on the Investigation into Repression Policy of Occupation, Tallinn 2005: Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers:133- 140:

http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

STIGLITZ, Joseph E., Amartya SEN, Jean-Paul FITOUSSI et al. (2010) Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gdp-and-beyond/publications

Raporti kaalukust näitab Eurostati autorite koosseis:

Juhtivad

Professor Joseph E. STIGLITZ, Chair, Columbia University

Professor Amartya SEN, Chair Adviser, Harvard University

Professor Jean-Paul FITOUSSI, Coordinator of the Commission, IEP

http://www.stiglitz-sen-fitoussi.fr

 StratCom COE (15.III 2017) StratCom laughs. In search of an analytical framework – ISBN: 978-9934-564-12-3: http://www.stratcomcoe.org/publications

Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (2015) “Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity” – Journal of Development Economics 115: 32–44:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleListURL&_method=list&_ArticleListID=-1175221378&_sort=r&_st=13&view=c&md5=d185b1e7697a1a536327b241f9e4dd3b&searchtype=a

Tirole, Jean (1992) The Theory of Industrial Organizations. The MIT Press: 479.

Toomse, Rene (2015) Defending Estonia in peace and war. Retaining a small state near the aggressive neighbor by utilizing unconventional strategies; (supervisor: Jyrki Käkönen)  School of Governance, Law and Society, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia: 245:

http://www.etera.ee/zoom/8725/view?page=1&p=separate&view=0,0,2067,2834

Schmid-Schmidsfelden, Hubertus; Kristina Potapova (2016) The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing: Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU. Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies:

https://www.google.ee/search?q=martensctre%20eu%20publications%20bear%20sheeps%20clothing%20russias%20government%20funded%20organisations

 StratCom COE (15.III 2017) StratCom laughs. In search of an analytical framework – ISBN: 978-9934-564-12-3: http://www.stratcomcoe.org/publications

Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (2015) “Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity” – Journal of Development Economics 115: 32–44:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleListURL&_method=list&_ArticleListID=-1175221378&_sort=r&_st=13&view=c&md5=d185b1e7697a1a536327b241f9e4dd3b&searchtype=a

Tirole, Jean (1992) The Theory of Industrial Organizations. The MIT Press: 479.

Tongeren,  Jan W., van Ruud Picavet (2016) „Bayesian estimation approach in frameworks; integration of compilation and analysis“ In  EURONA — Eurostat Review on National Accounts and Macroeconomic Indicators: 7-49.

Toomse, Rene (2015) Defending Estonia in peace and war. Retaining a small state near the aggressive neighbor by utilizing unconventional strategies; (supervisor: Jyrki Käkönen)  School of Governance, Law and Society, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia: 245:

http://www.etera.ee/zoom/8725/view?page=1&p=separate&view=0,0,2067,2834

Tõenäosusega üle 0,8

Best, Micael, Jonas Hjort, David Szakonyi (April 2017) Individuals and Organizations as Sources of State Effectivness and Consequences for Policy Design. CEPR Discussion Papers:

DP11968 Individuals and Organizations as Sources of State Effectiveness, and Consequences for Policy Design

CCDCOE (2016): https://ccdcoe.org/publications/books/legalconsiderations.pdf

 ………                

Abstract: How much of the variation in state effectiveness is due to the individuals and organizations responsible for implementing policy? We investigate this question and its implications for policy design in the context of public procurement, using a text-based product classification method to measure bureaucratic output. We show that effective procurers lower bid preparation/submission costs, and that 60% of within-product purchase-price variation across 16 million purchases in Russia in 2011-2015 is due to the bureaucrats and organizations administering procurement processes. This has dramatic policy consequences. To illustrate these, we study a ubiquitous procurement policy: bid preferences for favored firms (here domestic manufacturers). The policy decreases overall entry and increases prices when procurers are effective, but has the opposite impact with ineffective procurers, as predicted by a simple endogenous-entry model of procurement. Our results imply that the state’s often overlooked bureaucratic tier is critical for effectiveness and the make-up of optimal policies.

 

Chou, Yuan (2006) “Three simple models of social capital and

economic growth “– The Journal of Socio-Economics 35  889-912:

DOI: 10.1016/j. socec. 2005.11.053

Abstract

This paper proposes three models of social capital and growth that incorporate different perspectives on the concept of social capital and the empirical evidence gathered to date. In these models, the social capital impacts growth by assisting in the accumulation of human capital, by affecting financial development through its effects is the collective trust and social norms, and by facilitating networking between firms that result in the creation and diffusion of business and technological innovations. We solve for the optimal allocation of resources channelled into the building of so::cial capital, to examine the models ‘ comparative statics and dynamics, and demonstrate how a tax and subsidy scheme may correct the resource under-allocation that results from the public good aspect of social capital creation. Observed, in the social capital across countries are explained by, in government policies and the possibility of multiple equilibria and social capital, the poverty of noughts and crosses.

© 2006 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Ennuste, Ülo  (2014) „Towards Special Methodological Problems of Macro-Optimal Sociocybernetic International Economic Sanctioning Coordination Modelling: Introductory Remarks oPreliminary Postulates and Conjectures“ – Baltic Journal of European Studies Tallinn University of Technology (ISSN 2228-0588), Vol. 4, No. 2 (17), 150-158:

http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT

Hodgson, G. (2007) “Evolutionary and Institutional Economics as the New Mainstream?” – Evolutionary Institutional Economics Review, 4(1): 7-25.

Hodgson, G. (1998) Institution Building as an Industrial Strategy. PHARE-ACE Research Project P95-2234-R. (co-author Ülo Ennuste) University of Cambridge Working Papers: 527.

Hurwitcz, Leonid et al. (2007): http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2007/advanced.html

INTERNATIONAL COMMISSION FOR THE INVESTIGATION OF CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY (2006) ESTONIA 1940-1945TALLINN 2006: http://www.historycommission.ee (NB: p1126 ).

Januskaite, Virginija; Lina Uziene (2015) „Intellectual Capital Measurements and National Strategy Development: Explaining the Gap“ – Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences 213 ( 2015 ) 161 – 166: Available online at http://www.sciencedirect.com

Abstract

The main purpose of the paper is to identify challenges that occur developing strategies based on national intellectual kapital (NIC) measurements. As it can be observed from IC literature, even though there are different methods to measure NIC, they are not commonly used among policy makers as a tool for strategic management decisions to raise competiveness of nation. This paper compares different approaches to measure NIC, reveals related problems and provides possible explanations accordingly. The findings of the paper show that there is a big gap between academic research and policy makers. Four major directions of explanations to bridge this gap are highlighted in the paper: (1) poor awareness of IC concept among policy makers, (2) methodology related issues, (3) changing leadership profile and (4) collaboration related issues. The insights to possible solutions are also presented. They reveal the need to research different countries regarding their NIC policy.

© 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Kahan, Dan M., Asheley Landrum, Katie Carpenter, Laura Helft, Kathleen Hall Jamieson (2017) „Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing“ – Political Psychology“ –  38: 179–199, doi:10.1111/pops.12396, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pops.12396/epdf

Kirch, Aksel; Marika Kirch, Tarmo Tuisk, Hanna-Hulda Reinkort and Aimar Altosaar (2008) “Etics, Emics, Estonians and Russians in Contemporary Estonia: Is the Past still Dominating the Present?”

Presentation at IACCP Congress 27-31 July, 2008 Bremen, Germany: Working Papers of the Institute for European Studies International University Audentes No 1:

http://www.ies.ee/iaccp2008/Kirch_et_al_paper.pdf

http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:30058

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Kissinger, Henry (2014)  World Order. Allen Lane: 420  (Index  on p 408:  Estonia, Russian cyberattac on  p 345).

KUNČIČ, ALJAŽ (2014) „Institutional quality dataset“ –  Journal of Institutional Economics / Volume 10 / Issue 01 / March 2014, pp 135-161:  http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1744137413000192 (About DOI

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Kubiszewski, Ida; Robert Costanza, Carol Franco, Philip Lawn, John Talberth, Tim Jackson, Camille Aylmer (2013) “Beyond GDP: Measuring and achieving global genuine progress” – Ecological Economics 93 (2013) 57–68.

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Kaljulaid, Kersti (2017): https://www.president.ee/et/meediakajastus/intervjuud/13147-qrussia-is-a-threat-estonia-frets-about-its-neighborq-the-washington-post/index.html

http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

KUNČIČ, ALJAŽ (2014) „Institutional quality dataset“ –  Journal of Institutional Economics Volume 10 Issue 01 March 2014, pp 135-161:  http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1744137413000192 (About D

Mägi, Kadi; Kadri Leetmaa, Tiit Tammaru, Maarten van Ham (2016) „Types of spatial mobility and change in people’s ethnic residential contexts“ – DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH VOLUME 34, ARTICLE 41, PAGES 1161−1192 PUBLISHED 28 JUNE 2016 http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol34/41/ DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2016.34.41:

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Schmid-Schmidsfelden, Hubertus: Kristina Potapova (2016) The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing: Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU. Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies:

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Toomse, Rene (2015) Defending Estonia in peace and war. Retaining a small state near the aggressive neighbor by utilizing unconventional strategies; (supervisor: Jyrki Käkönen); School of Governance, Law and Society, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia: 245lk:

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 Tõesusega üle 0,7

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Ennuste, Ü. (2008) “Synthetic Conceptions of Implementing Mechanisms Design for Public Socio-Economic Information Structure: Illustrative Estonian Examples.” In: Kirch, Aksel et al. (Eds.) Socio-economic and institutional environment: harmonisation in the EU countries of Baltic Sea Rim: Tallinn University of Technology, 9 – 39: http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No4/Ennuste.pdf

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Kukk, Kalev (2005) ”Economic Damages In: The White Book: Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes 1940–1991State Committee on the Investigation into Repression Policy of Occupation, Tallinn, Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers:141-171:    http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

(puudub rahvuslike ressursside kaotuste hindamine)

Rahandusministeerium (12.IV 2017) 2017. aasta kevadine majandusprognoos. RM võrguteavik: 76lk – koostaja Madis Aben.

NB: Rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse (RJ) aspektist on sellel prognoosil rida puuduseid mis usaldusväärsust vähendavad (a) nt Eesti RJ lähendi – konvergentsi EL/28 keskmisele (KK) „prognoos“ on siin aastani 2015! – kusjuures 2016 kohta on formaalne statistika olemas – liiati on see „prognoos“ teadustühiselt moonutatult PPS vääringus (b) prognoosil on suur lünk selles osas et puudub makro-ressursside prognoos nt maksebilansi finantskonto osa – seega jääb teadmata millises mahus jätkub finantskonto kaudu lähematel aastatel rahvuslike finantsvarade slikerdamine investeeringute petunimede all välismaale nii residentide kui ka e-residentide poolt (c) avaldatud prognooside usaldusväärsust rängalt vähendab mitmete regressandide usalduspiiride puudumine ja seega ilmselt hübriidsõja riskide (eriti sanktsioonide sõja) rahvuslikult vastutustundetu ignoreerimine.

 

April 24, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Visand 24.IV (automaattõlkeks ingl)

Visand 23.IV 17 (eelretsenseerimiseks)

Ülo Ennuste (22.IV 17) Sotsiaal-küberneetiline lühiuurimus väikese rahvusriigi eksistentsiaalsete ressursside ligikaudse rahalise hindamise meetoditest, hübriid-jätkusõja tingimustes rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse kriteeriumi alusel: illustreerivaid eksperimentaal-arvutusi Eesti näitel koos eelmise poolesajandilise okupatsiooni kui ka selle pikaajaliste jäänuste kahjustuste negatiivsete mõjude ilmutatud arvestamisega

Eelmärkusi  

XXI sajandi akadeemiline sotsiaal-küberneetika peavool hindab hübriid sõja tingimustes solidaarsestesse kooperatiivsesse/koordineeritavasse suurliitudesse kuuluva rahvusliku väikeriigi majanduslikku-, sotsiaalset- ja küberneetilist-edukust eeskätt Meta-GDP põhiselt: eeskätt rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse lähendi – konvergentsi kestlikkuse tingliku Bayes’liku tõenäosuse muutude alusel – ning makro-mudelites rahvuslikke institutsioone (Hodgson (2007;1998) ja ressursse ning riske ilmutatud kujul rahaliselt kvantifitseerides nii positiivselt kui negatiivselt –  ja seda eriti inimkapitali ning ka sotsiaalkapitali mahtude rahalise mõõtmisega nii otseselt kui kaudselt – ning rahaliselt mõõtes ka viimatise pikaajalise terroristliku okupatsiooni poolt tekitatud rahvuslikke kaotusi eeskätt inim-, sotsiaal- ning kultuuri-vara jne osas – sest praeguses hübriidsõjas on agressori eesmärgiks järjekordselt eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse erodeerimine püüdes selleks ka tugineda eelnenud okupatsiooni poolt tekitatud komplikatsioonidele – optimaalsete heidutus-strateegiate ja –poliitikate kavandamine nõuab vastavate rahvuslike ressursside mahtude võrreldavat kvantitatiivset hindamist ning selleks koostööd teaduslikku koostööd liitlaste sõltumatute oivakskustega.

  • Stiglitz et al. (2010) panevad rangelt teadusloogiliselt kindlalt paika et standardsed/formaalsed GDP indikaatorid on valdavas osas kitsalt turumajanduslikel voogudel põhinevad ja seega sobimatud nii rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kui ka heaolu hindamiseks – seda eriti hübriidsõja suure määramatuse ning riskide tingimustes – ning ka rahvuslike tulude teaduslagedate ümberjagamise disfunktsionaalsete institutsioonide tingimustes (nt 0-kasumimaks mis partnerriike kahjustab ja hübriidsõjas agressorit subsideerib jne); edasi jäävad turumajanduslikust arvestusest välja nii rahvusliku sotsiaal-, inim-, kultuur- jne kapitalide/varade loomise jooksvate mahtude arvestused ning ressursside varude kui faktotite arvestused: mis veelgi olulisem et standardse GDP arvestuse sisse lähevad parajasti positiivselt nt mitmed hübriidsõja poolt põhjustatud kuriteod – nt 2007 pronksmäsu purustuste taastamistööd jne (Raporti usaldusväärsust kinnitab autorite teaduslik tippkompetentsus – koosseis lisatud – selles puuduvad nii politikaanid kui ka pankurid ning plutokraadid ja muud magnaadid nagu meil tavaks jne)

NB: Tõelise (G) mitteformaalse/teaduspõhise GGDP mahtude mõningad esialgsed rakenduslikud kvantitatiivsed hinnangumeetodid ja nende esialgsed tulemused arvestades mitteformaalseid nn sateliitkontosid on kirjeldatud ülevaatlikult järgnevates uurimustes

  http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gdp-and-beyond/publications

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/beyond_gdp/index_en.html

 osundavad et akadeemilised/informaalsed GGDP mahud duaalhindades (ehk varihindades) milliseid on võimalik turuhindade puudumisel optimiseerimisteooriate võimekustega ligikaudselt rahaliselt hinnata – ületavad standardseid magnituudides ning inimressursside (laias mõistes koos põhielanikkonna reprodutseerimise kapitaliga) rahaline väärtus ületab selles kontekstis oluliselt füüsilise kapitali mahtu (vt nt OECD (2011) mis kahjuks kitsalt turumajandusliku statistika alusel ja kus Eesti kohta arvutused puuduvad – ja OECD (2016) kus leidub mõnigaid kaudseid kvantifikatsioone ka Eesti sotsiaalkapitali kohta).

  • Stiglitz et al. järgi arvestada tuleb adekvaatselt elanikkonna rahvuslikku turuvälist tegevust nii tulude hankimisel kui ka rahvuslike investeeringute soetamisel ja rahvuslike ressursside loomisel – seda eriti nii rahvusliku inim- kui ka sotsiaal- ning füüsilise- ja institutsionaal- kapitali soetamisel kodumajapidamiste ja turuväliste institutsioonide poolt – ning nende ressursside rahaliste mahtude hindamisel – ja seda suuresti informaalsete duaalhindade alusel. OECD (2011) keeruka valemi järgi inimkapitali mahu hindamine on keerukas isegi kitsalt turumajandusliku käsitluse puhul kus nt ei arvestata ka põlisrahva reproduktiivsusega seotud kodumajapidamiste inimressurssi – sama vihjavad Diamond&Saez jne; samuti ka sotsiaalkapitaliga lood eriti hübriidsõja riskide tingimustes arvestades sellega kaasnevaid rahvuslikke änge (vt nt Ott&Ennuste (1996) mis asümmeetrilised etniliste rühmade lõikes nt: eestikeelsed ja venekeelsed). Ja vt ka Chou (2006) abstrakti mis lisatud; rääkimata rahvuslikest küberneetiliste institutsionaalkapitalide rahalistest hinnanguest – KUNČIČ (2014).
  • Siinjuures on kahetsusväärne et suures osas meie rahvuslikud majandus- ning rahandus-poliitikud on poliitiliselt kitsalt motiveerituna jäänud rahvuslikult ebaadekvaatsete deterministlike GDP indikaatorite kummardajateks siiani (vt LISA) – mis moonutavad nende arusaamu tegelikust olukorrast ja riskide suurusest ning viivad neid rahvuslikult ränkadele väärotsustustele nt putinoid trollide poolt tekitatavatele rahvusliku sotsiaalkapitali kahjustustele eeskätt kiilulõõmisega ELis ning NATOs. Seda eriti hübriidsõja riskide tingimustes (vt Kissinger (2014), Lucas (2014), Toomse (2015), Kaljulaid (2017) jne) ning veelgi rohkem majandusküberneetiliste mehhanismide disainimisel – Diamond&Saez (2011) järgi nt praegune meie 0-kasumimaks on teaduslage mehhanism ning samas negatiivne institutsioon – eriti kui arvestada riskidega ning määramatustega.
  • Näiteid hübriidsõja probleemidest: strateegilise kommunikatsiooni sõjast 1) vt nt sanktsioonide sõjast Ennuste (2014) toodud kirjanduse viidetest et on vaja hierarhilist koordineerimissüsteemi kooperatiivses liidus 2) strateegilise kommunikatsiooni sõjast vt viiteid Ennuste (2008) et on vaja „sõnavabaduse“ piiranguid kremlimeelsete trollide suhtes jne 3) tähelpanu väärib ka nn ifolõhe akadeemilise ning poliitkorporatiivse leeri vahel (Januskaite&Uziene (2015) ja Kahan et al. (2017) tõdevad et seda lõhet mõnevõrra võib leevenda mõningate võimurite uudishimu) süvenemine strateegilises kommunikatsioonisõjas akadeemiliste ja poliitiliste institutsioonide vahel (vt ka StratCom COE (2015)) – seda eriti väikerahvuslike jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse riskide tõenäosuslikkuse mõistmise osas 4) eriti sügav lõhe on on ühelt poolt tõenäosusliku käsitluse (teadusloogilises käsitluses tõde on tõenäosuslik ja vale ning faktoidid võivad pärineda mitte ainult pudrupäisusest vaid tõenäoselt ka sulilikust salakavalsusest (Wiener (1948)) – eriti strateegilises kommunikatsioonis) – ning teiselt poolt subjektiivse poliit-determinismi vahel (kus kasutusel hägusloogika).

Näide: NLi poolt pikaajalise okupatsiooni ja selle jäätmetega tekitatud rahvuslike täilike tõeliste kahjude rahalisest hindamisest kus arvestatakse eeskätt inimvaradega nt

 https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/do-not-quote-18-xi-16/

NB: nt NLi pikaajalise okupatsiooni poolt Eestile tekitatud kahjude täiesti formaalne (riikliku standardese statistika alusel seega rahvuslike ressursside olemeid arvestamata) korrektne hinnang (Kukk (2005) tõenäoselt piirides (0,1;0,2)tn eurot (tn on 10 astmel 12) – seda küll 2004. a. andmete ja makroökonoomiliste peavoolu teooriate ning metodoloogiate alusel) ning – nagu tookordse Riikliku Komisjoni raames diplomaatiliselt eetiliselt korrektselt (nt Kirch et al. (2009)) oli võimalik (sh on Kukk vastutustundlikult tõdenud et NLi okupatsioon oli sisuliselt kolonisatsioon mis Fukuyama (2014 lk391) järgi seab esmaseks põlisrahvuse hävitamise) – arvestades nt et meie II Vabadussõja (Lindmäe (1999-2015) Köide IX lk542)) kaotused tulid täiesti maha vaikida – osutub nüüd parajasti hübriidsõja riskide tingimustes ning informaalsetes teaduspõhistes käsitlustes täiesti tühiseks – seda eriti meie rahvuslike inimvarade tohutute kaotuste tõttu barbaarses okupatsioonis ning pikaajaluste kahjustuste arvestuses mis jätkuvad siiani (Raukas (2005) nt radioaktiivsed jäätmed – vt ka LISA).

P.S.: On selge et ülalkirjeldatud kompleksete rahvuslike rahaliste informaalsete akadeemiliste tõenäosuslike (suuresti Bayes’like subjektiivsete hinnangute alusel: Tongeren et al. (2016) ning kaudsete makroökonoomiliste mõõtmiste tulemustel nagu nt Rajasalu (2003)) hinnangute usaldusväärsust hübriidsõja määramatuste ning strateegilise antagonistliku kommunikatsiooni tingimustes saab kindlustada – ainult ja ainult – laialdase hästi koordineeritud rahvusvahelise koostöö raames – rahvuslike teadmusstruktuuride sünergia metasünteesis. Jääb ehk vaid veel lisada et nendes rahvuslikes teadmus-struktuurides sisaldub tohutu akadeemiline vara – eeskätt sadade asjakohaste tippteaduslike ajakirjade ning sadade tuhandete tippteoreetiliste uurimuste sees peidus – kuigi mitmedki nendest uurimustest võib leida/osta mõne klikiga nt ka allolevate osunduste kirjandusviidetest – kuid ühelgi väikeriigil ei ole tippteadlaste pink küllalt pikk et kogu selles suures multi-dimensionaalsuses ning dünaamikas ja määramatuses ning komplementaarsete meetodite vallas üksi opereerida ning püüda arvukaid poliitpõhiseid korporatiivseid rahvuslikku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosust õõnestavaid populistlikke väärotsuseid ära hoida – kuigi kohati oleks seda võimalik kiiresti ja kergesti teha nt: (a) nt teaduspõhiselt on  strateegilise kommunikatsiooni sõjas teatav “sõnavabaduse” piiramine absoluutselt oblikatoorne (vt nt Ennuste (2008). Nt isegi President Kaljulaid’i WaPo artiklile – https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russia-is-a-threat-estonia-frets-about-its-neighbor/2017/03/24/011ad320-0f2b-11e7-9b0d-d27c98455440_story.html?utm_term=.ab0febde5386 – on ilmselt tosinad Kremli trollid diversioonilisi kommentaare lisanud (ja seda naljakam on et samas artiklis tunnistatakse ilmselt poliit-korrektsusest tõsiseltvõetavaks ilmselt kremlimeelse Y. Toom’i faktoidi nagu et venekeelses Narvas polevat parajasti mitte ühtegi putinoidi – muide Narva muudeti kiskjaliku NLi poolt venekeelseks sõjakuritegelikult etnilise puhastuse käigus ning seega parajasti eriti ohtlikus olukorras võimaliku kodusõja sütikuna Venemaa kaasabil – vt nt Thorsten&Riera-Crichton (2015)) (b) väga lihtne oleks läheneva Eesti eesistumise ajal EL/27-s jõustada teaduspõhised riske ning sulisid arvestavad maksuseadused mis liikmesriikides kõlvatute hargmaiste maksuparadiiside institutsioonid likvideeriks (vt EL Komisjoni vastavaid ettevalmistavaid Raporteid viimatistel aastatel) – ja – sellega EL/27 kui terviku nii sotsiaalkapitali kui ka kaitsevõimet suurendaks (samas kui meil teadustühiselt asendusteemasid kilplaslikult seltskonnameedias üles soojendatakse ning rahvuslikku teadmusruumi hägustatakse nt robotite sotsiaalmaksustamise dispuutidega jne :==) (c) mis selles hübriidsõjas meie jaoks eriti oluline et kiskjalik agressor eelnenud okupatsioonis kahjustas inimsusevastaselt oluliselt meie nii etnilist kui ka vaimset rahvuslikku struktuuri (vt nt Mägi et al. (2016) ja Noor (2005)) ning nüüd püüab valelikult siinse venekeelse elanikkonna inimõiguste päästmise nimel järjekordselt okupatsiooni taastada seejuures eestluse rahvuslikku sotsiaalkapitali nii rahvuslikult kui ka ideoloogiliselt lõhestades: seejuures üheks peamiseks relvaks valed valede otsa – nagu poleks okupatsiooni olnudki ja et küüditamise olid eesti rahva päästmiseks ning vene keel tuleb taastada riigikeelena jne. Täiesti kindlasti olid okupatsioonis meie põhirahvuse inimvara ja rahvusliku teadmusruumi kvaliteedi kaotused tohutud ning pikaajalised – XXI sajandi mõistes magnituudides suuremad senihinnatutest ja siiani oluliselt vähendavad eestluse jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosust – kuni ajaloolisele tõele tõeliselt/teaduspõhiselt näkku ei vaadata: nt et suure tõenäosusega juba tunamullu Tallinnas v.k domineeris (uurimuse Mägi et al. (2016) järgi).

P.S.P.S.: (a) tekst on mõeldud erialase rahvusvahelise koostöö hõlbustamiseks ning selles mõttes eeskätt ingl masintõlke jaoks sobivaid termineid ning koma asemel mõttekriipse kasutades ja nt GDP (kodumaine kogutoodang ja mitte SKT/SKP jne) (b) 30.III 2017 Eurostat avaldas värske ülevaate EL/28 276 piirkonna GDP p.c ebavõrdsuste kohta: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/news/news-releases. Kuigi see ülevaade on XXI sajandi makroökonoomika seisukohalt vaegteaduslik (vt nt Atkinson (2017) – nt kajastab ainult kitsalt turumajanduslikke indekseid) – siiski võib sellest ülevaatest nt ka OECD teadusosakondade raportite põhjal järeldada et ELi kui terviku sotsiaalkapitali tase on tõenäoselt vilets sest nende piirkondade majanduslike tasemete dispersioon on väga suur (seejures Balti-Riigid on piirkondadeks liigendamata jäänud. (c) vähemalt Eesti eesistumise ajal tuleks EL/27-s see probleem teaduspõhiselt Agendasse suruda  seda eriti arvestades et nt Econ.com 1.IV 2017 värske GDP prognoosi alusel 2018 kohta näib suure tõenäosusega et liikmesriikide lõikes on võimalik väita et sigma divergents näib jätkuvalt süvenevat ning seega mitmegi perifeeriariigi (eriti mis külgnevad kiskjaliku (Tirole (1992) termin oligopolide teoorias) impeeriumiga) rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosus näib eksistentsiaalselt kahanevat – kui endiselt võimurid eriti liikmesriikides (eriti kus venekeelsete kontsentreeritus kõrge) tõelistest sotsiaal-küberneetilistest (inc EL/27 kui terviku sotsiaalkapitali edendamisest) probleemidest pankurite/kröösuste juhtimisel populistlikult/teaduslagedalt mööda vaatavad (muide ajaleht The Economist omab kompetentset teadusosakonda).

Arusaadavalt peab Agendasse kuuluma ka see probleemistik:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?type=TA&reference=P8-TA-2016-0440&language=ET&ring=A8-2016-0317

Tänuavaldused: tänan SA VALGE RAAMAT juhatust rahalise toetuse eest mis võimaldas mul hankida ligemale poolsada tasulist värsket teaduspublikatsiooni sh väga kiiresti Amazon Kindle viimatisi suhtkalleid monograafiaid; sügav tänu Tallinna Ülikooli Akadeemilisele Raamatukogule võimaldamaks minul tasuta juurdepääsu tuhandetele sciensdirect.com artiklitele; asjalike nõuannete ning märkuste eest avaldan tänu oma pika-ajalistele akadeemilistele kolleegidele sellel alal: Geoffrey Hodgson, Attiat F. Ott, Ilari Tyrni, Teet Rajasalu, Peep Varju, Jaak Uibu, Aigi Rahi-Tamm, Alari Purju, Aksel Kirch, Anton Laur, …

Eriti tänulik oleks oodatavatele heategevuslikele kaasautoritele –  olen täiesti teadlik et niivõrd komplitseeritud prognostilisel alal üksi tegutsemine põhimõtteliselt ei loo praktiliselt piisava tõeväärtusega tulemusi.

 

LISA (retsenseerimata ja toimetamata visand 23.IV 17 – mitte viidata)

                                            „Parem  ligikaudu õige kui täpselt vale“

                                                                                              J.M. Keynes

Rahvuslike nähtavate ja nähtamatute makro-ressursside ligikaudse rahalise hindamise näiteid ning vastavate pikaajaliste okupatsioonikahjude mõjude rahalisest hindamisest – Eesti rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse tõenäosuse aspektist nii rahvusvaheliste liitude kui hübriidsõja tingimustes

  1. Standardne/formaalne turumajanduslik inimkapital (SMHC) elaniku kohta (p.c) keskmiselt on OECD (2011) üldistatud tulemuste ülekandmise alusel (vt Abstract väidet et kogu SMHC on 8 kuni üle 10 korra suurem standardsest GDP mahust (SGDP) – kusjuures taoliste uuringute tulemuste tõesuse tõenäosust hinnatakse vähemalt 0,9 tasemele. See OECD uuring on tehtud tosina suhteliselt rikka ning etniliselt homogeense rahvusliku suurriigi kohta ja selle tulemuste Bayes’likul ülekandmisel etniliselt polaarsele ning rikkas majandusliidus perifeersele väikeriigile nõuab nii tulemuste vastavat usaldus-tõenäosuse vähendamist kui ka usalduspiiride laiendamist (vt nt Tongeren&Picavet(2016)) ja ametliku statistika (GDP ja elanike arvu jne) andmetel saame suure ligikaudsusega ning samas ilmselt piisava subjektiivse/Bayesliku tõenäosusega (0,8) esialgselt hinnata et Eesti 2016 jooksvates turuhindades ja oodatavate turumajanduslike sissetulekute meetodil – keskmine SMHC p.c asetseb lõigus: €(0,1;0,2)M – kus 0,1 ja 0,2 on lõigu alumine ja ülemine usalduspiir ning M tähistab miljonit.

NB: (a) see on kogu elanikkonna keskmise usalduslõik kusjuures OECD (2011) järgi nt mõne eliit-kohordi keskmine võib ligemale kaks korda seda keskmist ületada ehk olla nt €(0,1;0,2)M ning vastupidiselt – on ilmselt hübriidsõja tingimustes otstarbekas defineerida negatiivse keskmisega kohorte (b) kogu rahvusliku SMHC olemi määramisel 2016. a. seisuga  kasutatava elanike neto arvu juures tuleb siinkohal arvestada ainult kodumaiste residentidega ning nt okupatsioonist tingitud elanikkonna pöördumatute kaotuste hulka kuuluvad majanduslikus mõttes ka okupatsiooni aegsed emigrandid, okupatsiooni ajal poliitiliselt diskrimineeritud isikud, okupatsiooni tõttu kaotatud haridusvõimalused ning tervisekahjustused (c) ning mis samuti oluline: kogu elanikkonna struktuuri moonutamisega (eeskätt venestamisega) tekitatud kahjustused (kuna Eurostati (2016) järgi kolmandates riikides sündinute (seega eeskätt venekeelsete) positiivne majandusaktiivsus on madalam meie põhirahvuse omast – kuid need statistilised andmed vajavad parajasti täpsustamist (sest hübriidsõja tingimustes viimastel aastatel on etniline polaarsus ilmselt süvenemas).

2. Informaalne/turuväline kodumajanduslik (sic! puhtmajanduslik kuid hinnatud standardsetes jooksvates turuhindades) IMHC p.c ehk ka nn satelliit GDP (kodune laste kasvatamine, kodune eakate hooldamine, kodused majapidamistööd jne) mahud hinnatakse statistikute (nt aktiivsete tegevustundide ametlike statistikate alusel) poolt keskmiselt 2 kuni 3 korda suuremateks kui IMHC p.c – seega €(0,2;0,6)M.

3. Rahvuslik informaalne sotsiaalkapital (amorfne=nähtav/mittenähtav ning formaalne statistika suuresti puudulik – akronüüm NISC):Eesti kohta 2013 seisuga on mõningaid kvantitatiivseid mõõtmisi tehtud sotsiaalkapitali indeksi taseme kohta OECD (2016) uurimuses – kus on küll kahjuks piirdutud ainult rahvusliku üldise koostöövalmiduse taseme hindamisega 10 punkti süsteemis ja näitaja struktuuri ilmutatud kujul ei esitata – mis olevat enam vähem EL/28 keskmisel tasemel 5,8 punkti. Seejuures eristamata/separeerimata selliseid faktoreid nagu: elanikkonna reproduktiivsus ning sellega seotud perekondlikud bioloogilised kapitalid, sotsiaalsete/seltskondlike ühenduste kapital, majanduslik ebavõrdsus, etniline heterogeensus, agressor impeeriumi strateegilise kommunikatsiooni diversioonoperatsioonide destruktiivne negatiivne mõju, hübriidsõja ängide etniline asümmeetrilisus (nt Ott&Ennuste (1996)) jne. Rahvusliku informaalse (formaalne/riiklik statistika oluliselt puudub eriti hindade osas) sotsiaalkapitali (NISC) rahalise mahu p.c hindamiseks (sh nt eriti reproduktiivsus-kapitali mahu hindamiseks) standardsed turuhinnad puuduvad ning tuleb kõrge usaldusväärsusega uuringutes esmalt siirduda informaalsete duaalhindade (varihindade) kasutamisele. Seda ideaalis suurte dünaamiliste stohhastiliste optimeerimismudelite dekomponeeritud lahendamisel kus duaalhinnad kujunevad endogeenselt (kahjuks Eesti kohta taolised kvantifitseeritud mudelid parajasti puuduvad) Siis jääb üle suurema ligikaudsusega ning väiksema usaldusväärsusega taanduda rahvusvaheliste paneelide ökonomeetriliste faktoranalüüside kasutamisele nt Rajasalu (2003) ja eeskätt nn musta kasti meetodil: kus küll otseselt (tollele Rajasalu ajale omaselt) amorfse sotsiaalkapitali faktorit rakenduslikes arvutustes ei rakendatud – kuid kaudselt saame Rajasalu (2003)järgi leida sotsiaalkapitalile lähendeid ning nende kaudu NISC p.c mahtude hindamisel toorelt kasutama vastavate rahvusvaheliste teaduspõhiste hinnangute subjektiivset (antud juhul kahetsusväärselt ainult andmete ajalise transformeerimist koos tuleviku oodatavate summade diskonteerimisega (vt OECD (2016)) ja mineviku summade ajastamisega Eesti 2016 hinna-tingimustesse (vt nt Ennuste (1996)): NISC p.c – €(0,3;1)M.

4. Rahvuslik traditsiooniline füüsiline kapital (OECD termin – siin akronüüm NTFC).  OECD (2016) uurimuse väitel TFC (loodusvarad, rahvuslikud infrastruktuuri varad koos nt raskerelvastusega ning koos kulla ja finantsvaradega) maht on üldiselt väiksem kui SMHC – seega ligikaudselt hindame esialgselt hübriid sõja tingimustes mitte kõrgemaks kui 6 kuni 12 kordne SGDP p.c ehk 2016. a. NTFC p.c on vahemikus €(0,1;0,2)M.

5. Rahvus-riikliku institutsioonkapitali (NINC) hulka kuuluvad eeskätt rahvuslike administratiivsete institutsioonide varad nagu eeskätt Fukuyama (2014) järgi: riiklikud- ja poliit-organisatsioonid, rahvusliku kaitse organisatsioonid, rahvuslik monetaar-ja fiskaal-süsteem koos maksusüsteemiga, rahvusvahelistesse liitudesse, blokkidesse, kuulumine jne. Nende rahaline olevikuväärtus on eeskätt mõõdetav nende loomiseks tehtud investeeringutega ning amortiseerumisega (Hodgson (1998)). Autori arvates nende agregeeritud makrovarade usaldusväärseks detailide vabaks rahaliseks mõõtmiseks mesoökonoomiliste agregaatide aluse) on ilmselt vaja veel mahukaid detailseid statistilisi välitöid teha mikrotasandil: väga esialgselt ning subjektiivselt/intuitiivselt võiks NINC p.c hinnang olla vahemikus €(0,1;0,2)M – vt nt Ennuste (2016).

6. Rahvuslik informaalne intellektuaalvara (NIIC) nagu rahvuslik: teadus- ja uskumusvara ning kultuurivara on samuti mõõdetavad nendesse süsteemidesse eelnevalt aegade jooksul tehtud panustuste ning vastavate varade hävitustega ning röövimistega (nt okupantide poolt ajalooliste arhitektuuri väärtuste hävitamise, raamatukogude laastamise, kunstiteoste varastamisega jne) Jällegi autori arvates nende agregeeritud makrovarade usaldusväärseks detailide vabaks rahaliseks mõõtmiseks on ilmselt vaja veel mahukaid detailseid statistilisi välitöid teha: väga esialgselt ning subjektiivselt/intuitiivselt võiks NIIC p.c hinnang olla vahemikus €(0,1;0,2)M – vt nt Ennuste (2016).

P.S.: Arusaadavalt oleks ülaltoodud subjektiivseid erineva tõeväärtusega esialgseid suure ligikaudsusega makro summade kokkuvõtteid (kaalutud erinevate ligikaudsete tõeväärtustega) laialt avaldama pole mõttekas – enne kui  uuringut ei ole vastavate rahvusvaheliste sõltumatute (sic!) oivakeskuste poolt korrigeeritud. Kuid siiski nende summade saab juba üsna suure tõenäosusega oletada nt – et Eestis seni tehtud uuringud NLi pikaajalise okupatsiooni rahvuslike majanduskahjude kohta on – tänapäeva makroökonoomika ja sotsiaalküberneetika rakursist – magnituudides allahinnatud: ja seda on hübriidsõja tingimustes rahvuslike strateegiate/poliitikate optimeerimiseks vaja numbriliselt kasvõi suure ligikaudsusega teada – sest paraku hübriidsõda on suuresti reokupeerimisele suunatud ning tugineb oluliselt eelnenud pikaajalise okupatsiooni ja selle jäätmete poolt meie rahvuslike ressursside kahjustuste ärakasutamisele (Schmid-Schmidsfelden&Potapova (2016), RAND (2017).

P.S.P.S.: Tõesuse tõenäosusega üle 0,7:

SMHC p.c – €(0,1;0,2)M –  E(0,2) – P(0,9)

IMHC p.c – €(0,2;0,6)M –   E(0,4) – P(0,8)

NISC p.c –   €(0,3;1)M   –    E(0,7) – P(0,7)

NTFC p.c –  €(0,1;0,2)M   – E(0,2) – (…)

NINC p.c –  €(0,1;0,2)M –   E(0,2) – (…)

NIIC p.c –    €(0,2;0,4)M –  E(0,3) – (…)

__________________________

Kokku p.c E(2,2)M ja P(0,7) – kus E on ülespoole ümardatud keskmise tähis  – ja P(…) tingliku tõesuse tõenäosuse vahemiku võimalk alampiir ning nt P(0,9) puhul eeldame keskmiselt usaldustõenäosust 95% ringis (usalduspiirides +/-15%) ning P=(0,7) puhul usalduspiirides +/-50% ja – (…) tähistab et andmete täpsustamine piisava usaldusväärsuseni jätkub. Tehniliselt Bayes’lik tinglik tõenäosus on defieeritud kui P(A/B) kus B tähistab siin parajasti kasutatava andmebaasi usaldustõenäosust.

Seega parajasti kogu rahvuslikult oleks eurodes olulisemate ressursside rahaline hinnang keskmiselt: (1,3×10*6)(2,2×10*6)=>2,5×10*12 ehk rohkem kui €2,5tn  – kus tn on triljoni tähis (triljon =10*12 – kus * on astendaja tähis) – ehk 2016 oleks eesti olulisemate rahvuslike ressursside rahalise mahu hinnang 2,5 triljoni euro ringis: (2;3)tn – P(0,7).

Samas keskmiselt ühe soomlase kohta võiks parajasti oluliste ressursside rahalist mahtu hinnata keskmiselt vähemalt kaks korda kõrgemaks ehk vähemalt viie miljoni euro ringis – seda palju kõrgemana pikaajalise otsese NLi okupatsiooni puudumise tõttu (vt nt Kukk (2005) ja Ennuste (1996)). Seega võiksime ressursside põhiselt hinnata meie pikaajalise okupatsiooni rahalist kahju p.c praegu hinnata kahe miljoni euro ringis: (1,5;2,5)M ehk rahvuslikult (2;3)tn euro piiridesse tõenäosusega P(0.7) ringis. Jääb lisada et Kukk (2005) poolt aastal avaldatud vastav hinnang mis põhines eeskätt SGDP formaalsete voogude kaotustele oli vähemasti tosin korda väiksem – sest riikliku komisjoni liikmena ei omanud moraalset vabadust informaalselt arvestada ei rahvuslike inim- ega sotsiaal-kultuuriliste- ning ka füüsiliste-varade kaotustega.

Mis veelgi olulisem et Rahi-Tamm (2005) poolt korrektselt avaldatud P(0,9) okupatsiooni pöördumatud inimkaotuste hulka (tolle ajastu käsitluse kontekstis) ei ole arvestatud ei emigratsiooni ega ka represseeritute paljude residentidest sugulaste olulist väljalangemist töövõimeliste ning elanike reproduktsiooni ressurssidest  – ometi kodumaisest makroökonoomilisest ning rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse aspektist on taoliste faktorite arvestamine oluline – ning – nende andmete osas vajalikud piisavad täpsustused lähematel aastatel jätkuvalt näivat Balti-Riikides toimuvat (StratCom COM ?) – seega pikaajalised rahvuslikud okupatsioonilised inimkaotuste mahtude rahalised hindamised (puuduv punkt 7.) jäävad edaspidiste uurimuste valda.

        OSUNDUSI (rühmitatud nende tõesuste tõenäosuste järgi kolmeks)

Tõesuse tõenäosusega üle 0,9

Diamond, Peter; Emmanuel Saez (AUGUST 2011) The Case for a Progressive Tax: From Basic Research to Policy Recommendations. CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 3548 CATEGORY 1: PUBLIC FINANCE: http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/diamond-saezJEP11opttax.pdf
European Commission (February 2015) “What is the “Beyond GDP”:http://ec.europa.eu/environment/beyond_gdp/index_en.html
Fukuyama, Francis (2014) Political Order and Political Decay. FARRAR, STRAUS and GIROUX, New York: 658.

Januskaite, Virginija; Lina Uziene (2015) „Intellectual Capital Measurements and National Strategy Development: Explaining the Gap“ – Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences 213 ( 2015 ) 161 – 166: Available online at http://www.sciencedirect.com

Abstract

The main purpose of the paper is to identify challenges that occur developing strategies based on national intellectual kapital (NIC) measurements. As it can be observed from IC literature, even though there are different methods to measure NIC, they are not commonly used among policy makers as a tool for strategic management decisions to raise competiveness of nation. This paper compares different approaches to measure NIC, reveals related problems and provides possible explanations accordingly. The findings of the paper show that there is a big gap between academic research and policy makers. Four major directions of explanations to bridge this gap are highlighted in the paper: (1) poor awareness of IC concept among policy makers, (2) methodology related issues, (3) changing leadership profile and (4) collaboration related issues. The insights to possible solutions are also presented. They reveal the need to research different countries regarding their NIC policy.

© 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Kissinger, Henry (2014 –  e.k 2017)  World Order. Allen Lane: 420  (Index  on p408:  Estonia, Russian cyberattac on  p 345).

Lindmäe, Herbert (2015-1999) SUVESÕDA  … 1941, Tartu, OÜ Greif: 4825lk (sic! IX Köidet – üe).

OECD STATISTICS DIRECTORATE (10-Oct-2011) MEASURING THE STOCK OF HUMAN CAPITAL FOR COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION OF THE LIFETIME INCOME APPROACH TO SELECTED COUNTRIES – WORKING PAPER NO. 41 (This paper has been prepared by Gang Liu, E-mail: gang.liu@oecd.org): http://www.oecd.org/std/research

 

ABSTRACT

This paper summarizes the outcomes of the first phase of the OECD human capital project. In so doing, it shows the feasibility of applying the lifetime income approach to measuring human capital for comparative analysis, both across countries and over time. It also highlights the feasibility of applying the methodology to the categorical data (i.e. by 5-year or 10-year age group) that are typically available within the OECD statistics system, rather than to data by single year of age required by the original Jorgenson-Fraumeni methodology. The results in this paper indicate that the estimated value of human capital is substantially larger than that of traditional physical capital. Ratios of human capital to GDP are in a range from around eight to over ten across countries, broadly in line with those reported in a number of national studies. The distributions of human capital by age, gender, and education show that men dominate women in terms of their human capital holdings. In addition, people with higher education are better off than those with lower education, and the same is true for younger people compared to their older counterparts, although the detailed patterns vary across countries. Decomposition analysis of changes in the volume of human capital demonstrates that changes in population structure between men and women had little effect on the change of human capital per capita. While in all countries higher educational attainment contributed positively to the change of human capital per capita, this is not always sufficient to offset the negative effect of population ageing;

as a result, the volume of human capital per capita appeared to have declined in some countries over the observed period. Finally, sensitivity analysis confirms that estimates of the value of human capital depend on the choice of the two key parameters, i.e. annual real income growth rate and discount rate, while within-country distribution of human capital and trends of the volume of human capital are less sensitive to these assumptions.

OECD (2016) How’s Life in Estonia? :

https://www.google.ee/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=OECD+(May+2016)+How%E2%80%99s+Life+in+Estonia%3F+Additional+information%2C+including+the+data+used+in+this+country+note%2C+can+be+found+at%3A+www.oecd.org%2Fstatistics%2FBetter-Life-Initiative-2016-country-notes-data.xlsx

Eurostat (110/2016 – 6 June 2016) Migrant integration in the EU labour market in 2015:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/news/news-releases?p_p_id=101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_state=normal&p_p_mode=view&p_p_col_id=column-2&p_p_col_count=1&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_delta=20&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_keywords=&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_advancedSearch=false&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_andOperator=true&p_r_p_564233524_resetCur=false&_101_INSTANCE_jtJORfNw4amk_cur=2

Ott, A.F., U. Ennuste (1996) “Anxiety as a Consequence of Liberalization: an Analysis of Opinion Surveys in Estonia” – Social Science Journal, 33, 2, 149-164:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0362

Rahi-Tamm, Aigi (2005) “Human Losses In:  The White Book: Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes 1940–1991”State Committee on the Investigation into Repression Policy of Occupation, Tallinn 2005: Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers:25-48:

http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

Rajasalu, Teet (2003) “Indicators of economic freedom and economic structure as determinants of growth and convergence in enlarging EU and priorities for Estonia”:  In: Essays in Estonian transformation economics, 2003, Tallinn: 9-32.

Raukas, Anto (2005) “Enormous Envirolmental Damage Caused by Occupation Army In:  The White Book: Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes 1940–1991”State Committee on the Investigation into Repression Policy of Occupation, Tallinn 2005: Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers:133- 140:

http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

STIGLITZ, Joseph E., Amartya SEN, Jean-Paul FITOUSSI et al. (2010) Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gdp-and-beyond/publications

Raporti kaalukust näitab Eurostati autorite koosseis:

Juhtivad

Professor Joseph E. STIGLITZ, Chair, Columbia University

Professor Amartya SEN, Chair Adviser, Harvard University

Professor Jean-Paul FITOUSSI, Coordinator of the Commission, IEP

http://www.stiglitz-sen-fitoussi.fr

 StratCom COE (15.III 2017) StratCom laughs. In search of an analytical framework – ISBN: 978-9934-564-12-3: http://www.stratcomcoe.org/publications

Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (2015) “Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity” – Journal of Development Economics 115: 32–44:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleListURL&_method=list&_ArticleListID=-1175221378&_sort=r&_st=13&view=c&md5=d185b1e7697a1a536327b241f9e4dd3b&searchtype=a

Tirole, Jean (1992) The Theory of Industrial Organizations. The MIT Press: 479.

Toomse, Rene (2015) Defending Estonia in peace and war. Retaining a small state near the aggressive neighbor by utilizing unconventional strategies; (supervisor: Jyrki Käkönen)  School of Governance, Law and Society, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia: 245:

http://www.etera.ee/zoom/8725/view?page=1&p=separate&view=0,0,2067,2834

Schmid-Schmidsfelden, Hubertus; Kristina Potapova (2016) The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing: Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU. Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies:

https://www.google.ee/search?q=martensctre%20eu%20publications%20bear%20sheeps%20clothing%20russias%20government%20funded%20organisations

 StratCom COE (15.III 2017) StratCom laughs. In search of an analytical framework – ISBN: 978-9934-564-12-3: http://www.stratcomcoe.org/publications

Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (2015) “Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity” – Journal of Development Economics 115: 32–44:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleListURL&_method=list&_ArticleListID=-1175221378&_sort=r&_st=13&view=c&md5=d185b1e7697a1a536327b241f9e4dd3b&searchtype=a

Tirole, Jean (1992) The Theory of Industrial Organizations. The MIT Press: 479.

Tongeren,  Jan W., van Ruud Picavet (2016) „Bayesian estimation approach in frameworks; integration of compilation and analysis“ In  EURONA — Eurostat Review on National Accounts and Macroeconomic Indicators: 7-49.

Toomse, Rene (2015) Defending Estonia in peace and war. Retaining a small state near the aggressive neighbor by utilizing unconventional strategies; (supervisor: Jyrki Käkönen)  School of Governance, Law and Society, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia: 245:

http://www.etera.ee/zoom/8725/view?page=1&p=separate&view=0,0,2067,2834

Tõenäosusega üle 0,8

Chou, Yuan (2006) “Three simple models of social capital and

economic growth “– The Journal of Socio-Economics 35  889-912:

DOI: 10.1016/j. socec. 2005.11.053

Abstract

This paper proposes three models of social capital and growth that incorporate different perspectives on the concept of social capital and the empirical evidence gathered to date. In these models, the social capital impacts growth by assisting in the accumulation of human capital, by affecting financial development through its effects is the collective trust and social norms, and by facilitating networking between firms that result in the creation and diffusion of business and technological innovations. We solve for the optimal allocation of resources channelled into the building of so::cial capital, to examine the models ‘ comparative statics and dynamics, and demonstrate how a tax and subsidy scheme may correct the resource under-allocation that results from the public good aspect of social capital creation. Observed, in the social capital across countries are explained by, in government policies and the possibility of multiple equilibria and social capital, the poverty of noughts and crosses.

© 2006 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Ennuste, Ülo  (2014) „Towards Special Methodological Problems of Macro-Optimal Sociocybernetic International Economic Sanctioning Coordination Modelling: Introductory Remarks oPreliminary Postulates and Conjectures“ – Baltic Journal of European Studies Tallinn University of Technology (ISSN 2228-0588), Vol. 4, No. 2 (17), 150-158:

http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/bjes.2014.4.issue-2/bjes-2014-0021/bjes-2014-0021.xml?format=INT

Hodgson, G. (2007) “Evolutionary and Institutional Economics as the New Mainstream?” – Evolutionary Institutional Economics Review, 4(1): 7-25.

Hodgson, G. (1998) Institution Building as an Industrial Strategy. PHARE-ACE Research Project P95-2234-R. (co-author Ülo Ennuste) University of Cambridge Working Papers: 527.

Hurwitcz, Leonid et al. (2007): http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2007/advanced.html

INTERNATIONAL COMMISSION FOR THE INVESTIGATION OF CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY (2006) ESTONIA 1940-1945TALLINN 2006: http://www.historycommission.ee (NB: p1126 ).

Januskaite, Virginija; Lina Uziene (2015) „Intellectual Capital Measurements and National Strategy Development: Explaining the Gap“ – Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences 213 ( 2015 ) 161 – 166: Available online at http://www.sciencedirect.com

Abstract

The main purpose of the paper is to identify challenges that occur developing strategies based on national intellectual kapital (NIC) measurements. As it can be observed from IC literature, even though there are different methods to measure NIC, they are not commonly used among policy makers as a tool for strategic management decisions to raise competiveness of nation. This paper compares different approaches to measure NIC, reveals related problems and provides possible explanations accordingly. The findings of the paper show that there is a big gap between academic research and policy makers. Four major directions of explanations to bridge this gap are highlighted in the paper: (1) poor awareness of IC concept among policy makers, (2) methodology related issues, (3) changing leadership profile and (4) collaboration related issues. The insights to possible solutions are also presented. They reveal the need to research different countries regarding their NIC policy.

© 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Kahan, Dan M., Asheley Landrum, Katie Carpenter, Laura Helft, Kathleen Hall Jamieson (2017) „Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing“ – Political Psychology“ –  38: 179–199, doi:10.1111/pops.12396, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pops.12396/epdf

Kirch, Aksel; Marika Kirch, Tarmo Tuisk, Hanna-Hulda Reinkort and Aimar Altosaar (2008) Etics, Emics, Estonians and Russians in Contemporary Estonia: Is the Past still Dominating the Present?”

Presentation at IACCP Congress 27-31 July, 2008 Bremen, Germany: Working Papers of the Institute for European Studies International University Audentes No 1:

http://www.ies.ee/iaccp2008/Kirch_et_al_paper.pdf

http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:30058

Kirch, A., Tuisk, T.; Reinkort, H.- H. (2011). Estonians and Russians in Contemporary Estonia: Is the Past still Dominating the Present? In J. Deutsch, M. Boehnke, U. Kühnen, & K. Boehnke (Eds.), Rendering borders obsolete: Cross-cultural and cultural psychology as an interdisciplinary, multi-method endeavor. Bremen : Jacobs University Bremen : International Association for Cross-Cultural Psychology. pp. 106-120.

Kissinger, Henry (2014)  World Order. Allen Lane: 420  (Index  on p 408:  Estonia, Russian cyberattac on  p 345).

KUNČIČ, ALJAŽ (2014) „Institutional quality dataset“ –  Journal of Institutional Economics / Volume 10 / Issue 01 / March 2014, pp 135-161:  http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1744137413000192 (About DOI

 Krugman, Paul (1990) Rethinking International Trade. The MIT Press: 282.

Kubiszewski, Ida; Robert Costanza, Carol Franco, Philip Lawn, John Talberth, Tim Jackson, Camille Aylmer (2013) “Beyond GDP: Measuring and achieving global genuine progress” – Ecological Economics 93 (2013) 57–68.

 Laitin, David (1998) Identity in Formation: the Russian-speaking Populations in the Near Abroad. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

Lindmäe, Herbert (2015-1999) SUVESÕDA  … 1941, Tartu, OÜ Greif: 4825lk (sic! IX Köidet – üe).

Lucas, Edward (2014) The New Cold War: Putin’s Russia and the Threat to the West (Amazon.com Kindle).

Matsushima, Hitoshi (2008) „Role of honesty in full implementation“ – Journal of Economic Theory 139 2008  353 – 359: www.elsevier.com/locate/jet

 Kahan, Dan M., Asheley Landrum, Katie Carpenter, Laura Helft, Kathleen Hall Jamieson (2017) „Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing“ – Political Psychology“ –  38: 179–199, doi:10.1111/pops.12396, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/pops.12396/epdf

Kaljulaid, Kersti (2017): https://www.president.ee/et/meediakajastus/intervjuud/13147-qrussia-is-a-threat-estonia-frets-about-its-neighborq-the-washington-post/index.html

http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

KUNČIČ, ALJAŽ (2014) „Institutional quality dataset“ –  Journal of Institutional Economics Volume 10 Issue 01 March 2014, pp 135-161:  http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1744137413000192 (About D

Mägi, Kadi; Kadri Leetmaa, Tiit Tammaru, Maarten van Ham (2016) „Types of spatial mobility and change in people’s ethnic residential contexts“ – DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH VOLUME 34, ARTICLE 41, PAGES 1161−1192 PUBLISHED 28 JUNE 2016 http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol34/41/ DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2016.34.41:

http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol34/41/default.htm

Noor, Heino (2005) “Permanent Health Damages” In: The White Book: Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes 1940–1991State Committee on the Investigation into Repression Policy of Occupation, Tallinn, Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers: 58-73: http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

OECD (2011) MEASURING THE STOCK OF HUMAN CAPITAL FOR COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION OF THE LIFETIME INCOME APPROACH TO SELECTED COUNTRIES – STATISTICS DIRECTORATE- WORKING PAPER NO. 41 (This paper has been prepared by Gang Liu, OECD Statistics Directorate): http://www.oecd.org/std/research

OECD (2016) How’s Life in Estonia? :

https://www.google.ee/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=OECD+(May+2016)+How%E2%80%99s+Life+in+Estonia%3F+Additional+information%2C+including+the+data+used+in+this+country+note%2C+can+be+found+at%3A+www.oecd.org%2Fstatistics%2FBetter-Life-Initiative-2016-country-notes-data.xlsx

Ott, A.F., U. Ennuste (1996) “Anxiety as a Consequence of Liberalization: an Analysis of Opinion Surveys in Estonia” – Social Science Journal, 33, 2, 149-164:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0362

Rajasalu, Teet (2003) “Indicators of economic freedom and economic structure as determinants of growth and convergence in enlarging EU and priorities for Estonia”:  In: Essays in Estonian transformation economics, 2003, Tallinn: 9-32.

RAND (2017) https://www.google.ee/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=hybrid+warfare+in+the+baltics.+threats+and+potential+responses

Schmid-Schmidsfelden, Hubertus: Kristina Potapova (2016) The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing: Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU. Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies:

https://www.google.ee/search?q=martensctre%20eu%20publications%20bear%20sheeps%20clothing%20russias%20government%20funded%20organisations

Thorsten Janus, Daniel Riera-Crichton (2015) “Economic shocks, civil war and ethnicity” – Journal of Development Economics 115: 32–44:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleListURL&_method=list&_ArticleListID=-1175221378&_sort=r&_st=13&view=c&md5=d185b1e7697a1a536327b241f9e4dd3b&searchtype=a

Tirole, Jean (1992) The Theory of Industrial Organizations. The MIT Press: 479.

Toomse, Rene (2015) Defending Estonia in peace and war. Retaining a small state near the aggressive neighbor by utilizing unconventional strategies; (supervisor: Jyrki Käkönen); School of Governance, Law and Society, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia: 245lk:

http://www.etera.ee/zoom/8725/view?page=1&p=separate&view=0,0,2067,2834

 Tõesusega üle 0,7

 Ennuste, Ülo (2016): https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/do-not-quote-18-xi-16/

Ennuste, Ü. (2008) “Synthetic Conceptions of Implementing Mechanisms Design for Public Socio-Economic Information Structure: Illustrative Estonian Examples.” In: Kirch, Aksel et al. (Eds.) Socio-economic and institutional environment: harmonisation in the EU countries of Baltic Sea Rim: Tallinn University of Technology, 9 – 39: http://www.ies.ee/iesp/No4/Ennuste.pdf

Ennuste, Ü. (1993) „An outline for estimating long-term economic damage by means of analogy“  Eesti TA Toimetised. Humanitaar- ja Sotsiaalteadused, 42, 1, 1-4.

Kukk, Kalev (2005) ”Economic Damages In: The White Book: Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes 1940–1991State Committee on the Investigation into Repression Policy of Occupation, Tallinn, Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers:141-171:    http://www.digar.ee/arhiiv/nlib-digar:8192

(puudub rahvuslike ressursside kaotuste hindamine)

Rahandusministeerium (12.IV 2017) 2017. aasta kevadine majandusprognoos. RM võrguteavik: 76lk – koostaja Madis Aben.

NB: Rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse (RJ) aspektist on sellel prognoosil rida puuduseid mis usaldusväärsust vähendavad (a) nt Eesti RJ lähendi – konvergentsi EL/28 keskmisele (KK) „prognoos“ on siin aastani 2015! – kusjuures 2016 kohta on formaalne statistika olemas – liiati on see „prognoos“ teadustühiselt moonutatult PPS vääringus (b) prognoosil on suur lünk selles osas et puudub makro-ressursside prognoos nt maksebilansi finantskonto osa – seega jääb teadmata millises mahus jätkub finantskonto kaudu lähematel aastatel rahvuslike finantsvarade slikerdamine investeeringute petunimede all välismaale nii residentide kui ka e-residentide poolt (c) avaldatud prognooside usaldusväärsust rängalt vähendab mitmete regressandide usalduspiiride puudumine ja seega ilmselt hübriidsõja riskide (eriti sanktsioonide sõja) rahvuslikult vastutustundetu ignoreerimine.

April 24, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Õiendusi

Õiendusi http://pluss.postimees.ee/4073203/teadustoo-voi-soov-panna-okupandile-vastu-lougu?utm_source asjus

Eesti rahvuslikud pikaajalised kaotused NLi okupatsioonist pärinevad eeskätt okupantide  genotsiidilistest, sõjakuritegudest ja muudest inimsusvastastest (nt vägivaldsest venestamisest nii eestlaste küüditamise, vangistamise, hukkamise kui ka okupatsiooni ajal eriti väikelaste suhtkõrgest suremusest ja üldisest põliselanikkonna lühikesest elueast (tsiviliseeritud riikidega võrreldes – seda eriti nt Soomega võrreldes – rääkimata kommunistlikust venekeelsete anomaalsest immigratsioonipoliitikast ning sellega etnilise struktuuri polariseerumisest jne).

Seega eeskätt põliseesti inim-kapitali ja inim-varde ning rahvusliku sotsiaalkapitali ning ka rahvuslike  teadmus- ning kultuurivarade pöördumatutest kaotustest.

Nende kaotuste kohta on möödunud aastakümnetel arvukalt tõenduspõhiseid uurimusi tehtud – nt sellel sajandi mõningaid viimatisi publikatsioone:

 

http://www.communistcrimes.org/en/Database/Estonia/Estonia-Communist-Era

Herbert Lindmäe (2015) Suvesõda Harjumaal 1941. Köide IX (sic! kokku üheksa köidet 4852lk meie     II Vabadussõja ühe kangemasiku perioodi kohta – üe) GREIP, Tartu.

Peep Varju. Eesti laste küüditamine Venemaale 14. juunil 1941 kui genotsiidi- ja sõjakuritegu. Sihtasutus Valge Raamat, Tallinna Raamatutrükikoda, 116 lk, Tallinn 2013: http://digar.nlib.ee/digar/show/?id=134869

Estonia 1940-1945 (2006) – Estonian International Commission for the Investigation of Crimes Against Humanity, Tallinn: 1337pp.

Valge raamat: Eesti rahva kaotustest okupatsioonide läbi 1940-1991 (peatoim Vello Salo). Okupatsioonide Repressiivpoliitika Uurimise Riiklik Komisjon, Eesti Entsüklopeediakirjastus, 2005 Tallinn. http://digar.nlib.ee/digar/show/?id=8196  ehk

http://www.riigikogu.ee/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Valge-Raamat.pdf

Vello Salo (2005) The White Book. Losses Inflicted on the Estonian Nation by Occupation Regimes 1940-1991. State Committee on the Investigation into Repression Policy of Occupation, Estonian Encyclopaedia Publishers, Tallinn: http://digar.nlib.ee/digar/show/?id=8192  ehk   http://www.riigikogu.ee/public/Riigikogu/TheWhiteBook.pdf

Белая книга: о потерях, причиненных народу Эстонии оккупациями 1940-1991 / Государственная комиссия по расследованию репрессивной политики оккупационных сил; [перевод с эстонского: Андрей Бабаджан, Татьяна Верхоустинская, Эйнар Вяря ; редакторы Юло Эннусте … и др.; предисловие: Велло Сало] ORURK-24. Kirjastus Ilo. Tallinn, 2006: http://digar.nlib.ee/digar/show/?id=1604

Kuid okupatsiooni pikaajaliste kaotuste teaduspõhine hindamine peab jätkuma pidevalt sest (a) okupatsiooni jätted (nt Eesti etnilise struktuuri venestatus, siia jäänud radioaktiivne saast, siinsete okupantidest järeltulejate mõningate putinoid trollidele võimaldatud vaba vaenulik tegevus rahvusliku teadmusvara mürgitamisel jne) kahjustavad eestluse rahvuslikke jätkusuutlikkuseid siiani ja seda eriti hübriidsõja tingimustes kus kiskjalik agressorimpeerium üritab rekoloniseerimist

(b) sotsiaal-küberneetika ning makro-ökonoomika arenevad pidevalt nt XXI sajandil ELis kui OECDs on teaduspõhiselt kitsalt turumajanduslikelt GDP indikaatoritelt üle mindud Post-GDP indikaatorite hindamisele kus arvestatakse ka inimkapitali-, sotsiaalkapitali-, kultuurikapitali-, institutsionaalkapitali-loomist jne – ning GDP indikaatorite asemel eksistentsiaalsete kriteeriumitena rahvusliku jätkusuutlikkuse kestlikkuse ning sigma konvergentsi tõenäosuse maksimeerimist jne – vt nt:

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gdp-and-beyond/publications

https://uloennuste.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/do-not-quote-18-xi-16/

  • jääb lisada NLi okupatsiooni ajal käsumajanduslikus süsteemis planeerimine toimus sisuliselt eeskätt naturaalnäitajate alusel ning hinnad ning rahalised näitajad olid eeskätt puhtformaalsed ning poliitilised defitsiidimajanduslikud – näitamaks et liitriigid on kõik Moskvale võlgu ja iseseisvalt hakkama ei saaks – selle saavutamiseks olid liitriikide rahvuslikud sotsiaal-majanduslikud sfäärid dekomponeeritud nn üleliidulisteks sektoriteks ja kohalikeks. Seejuures üleliidulistes sektorites toimusid tehingud suuresti nt barteri printsiibil (nt ENSV energeetikasektori ametlikus statistikas oli kirje et oluline osa siin toodetud elektrist „anti vabariigist mujale“ nagu oli ka märkus et põllumajanduse toodangu hindades ei ole kogu väärtust ja see realiseerub tööstuste kaudu – sama toimus välisekspordis jne – seega liitriikide keskpankade rahavood olid ainult osalised ja hindades mis ei omanud mitte mingit sisulist tähendust)
  • Artikli kohta niipalju et ajakirjanikud ei küsinud arvamust ajaloolase Gatis Krumins’i küsitava tõenduspõhisusega ning puuduliku asjatundlikkusega narratiivi kohta mitte ühegi meie monetaar- ega fiskaal- teadlase rääkimata meie okupatsioonikahjude uurijate käest – rääkimata nt majandusteadlase dr K. Kukk’e käest (kes on nii rahandus- kui ka okupatsioonikahjude rahvusvaheliselt tunnustet autor – vt „Valgest raamatust“ dr Kukk’e pt mis olla tõlgitud ka läti keelde) – PMi ajakirjanikud eelistasid eeskätt meie väheusaldusväärseid rusikavehkijaid eks-kommuniste küsitleda kes igal alal ja ajal ning iga kell mihklid – ning Krumins’i meeskonna teksti AVASTUSEKS tituleerida).

April 10, 2017 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment